■本报记者 夏 青

S our reporter summer green

　　8月3日，业内机构监测的三地原油变化率已经超过+5%。按照国际原油价格的走势，机构一致预测，预计8月10日国内成品油价格上调窗口打开，理论涨幅为300-350元/吨。

August 3,，The agency monitoring has had more than three places crude oil rate + 5%。According to international oil price movements，Institutions consistent forecast，August 10, is expected to domestic product prices rise window open，Theory or is 300-350 yuan/ton。

　　受地缘政治及欧美经济刺激计划的心理预期影响，8月份国际原油价格仍延续7月上涨走势。 截至北京时间8月3日11点，WTI9月原油期货最新报每桶87.50美元涨0.37成交2378手，10月报每桶87.74美元涨0.33美元成交125手；布布伦特9月原油期货最新报每桶106.30美元涨0.40美元成交1285手，10月报每桶104.74美元涨0.35美元成交850手。

Geopolitical and Europe and the United States by economic stimulus plan expected effect，August international crude oil prices are still continue in July movements。 By Beijing time on August 3, 11 points，WTI9 latest report on oil futures $87.50 a barrel up 0.37 to clinch a deal 2378 hands，10 monthly rose $0.33 to $87.74 a barrel clinch a deal 125 hands；Cloth brent crude oil futures September for $106.30 a barrel latest $1285 hand up 0.40 to clinch a deal，10 monthly rose $0.35 to $104.74 a barrel clinch a deal 850 hands。

　　国际油价上涨，使得国内成品油零售价的调价参照“三地原油变化率”快速的正向继续拉宽。

The international oil prices，Make reference to domestic oil refiners of the retail price“The three places crude oil rate”Fast positive continue to pull wide。

　　金银岛监测数据显示，8月2日三地(辛塔、迪拜、布伦特DTD)原油当日均价每桶106.105美元，近22日均价每桶102.921美元，较7月9日基准价上涨5.57%。 金银岛分析师表示，受此影响，到8月10日，国内成品油调价窗口开启时，零售价将迎来“三连跌”后的首次上调。预计届时三地原油变化率将升至6%-7%之间。在考虑前两次调价幅度的情况下，8月份国内成品油价格上调幅度将在300-350元/吨之间。

Treasure island monitoring data show，On August 2, the three places(Michael essien tower、dubai、Brent DTD)On that day all valence crude oil at $106.105 a barrel，Nearly 22 average daily price $102.921 a barrel，More on July 9 benchmark price up 5.57%。 Treasure island analysts said，Affected by this，To August 10,，Domestic product oil refiners window open，Retail price will have“Three even fall”After the first hike。When oil rate is expected to three will rise to between 6% and 7%。In consideration of the previous two times the amplitude of the refiners，August domestic product prices would be expected to increase in 300-350 yuan/ton between。

　　卓创数据也显示，若国际油价持续在当前价位震荡，调价窗口开启之时，三地原油变化率有望在6%-7%，届时，若发改委及时调整油价，汽柴上调幅度将在350元/吨左右，折合93#汽油0.27元/升，0#30元/升，将全面回归7元时代。

Zhuo and data also showed，If the international oil prices continue at the current price volatility，Introduce window opens，Crude oil rate in three places is expected to 6% 7%，when，If oil prices to adjust to the national development and reform commission，Steam wood would be expected to rise in 350 yuan/tons，Or # 93 gas 0.27 yuan/l，0 # 30 yuan/l，Will be fully return $7 times。

　　中宇资讯分析师高承莎也表示，截至外盘8月2日，三地原油连续22日移动加权均价每桶102.921美元，基准均价每桶97.502美元，三地原油变化率+5.56%，较前一日涨0.30%。今日为第17个工作日。三地变化率虽涨势减小，但不能改变8月10日成品油上调窗口打开，预计当满足22个工作日+4%上调条件时，三地变化率或可至7%附近。

ZhongYu information analysts GaoChengSha also said，By WaiPan August 2，The three places for 22 consecutive moving crude oil weighted average price of $102.921 a barrel，The benchmark price $97.502 a barrel，The three places crude oil rate + 5.56%，The previous day rose 0.30%。This day for 17 days。The three places rate rise is reduced，But can't change on August 10 oil raised the window open，When 22 days is expected to meet + 4% rise when conditions，The three places rate or to near 7%。

　　金银岛分析师董丽珠表示，目前，国内各地区主营开始控制大单销售，部分地区对分销已停止出货，资源相对收紧。同时，将汽柴价格推至高位，柴油基本到达零售限价，故短期涨幅有限；汽油价格虽然同样较高，但仍有一定上涨空间。

Treasure island analysts DongLiZhu said，At present，Domestic regional main began to control large single sales，Part of the region has stopped shipment of distribution，Resources relative tightening。At the same time，Will prices pushed to high steam wood，Diesel basic reach retail prices，So short-term or limited；Gasoline prices, though it is also higher，But there is still a certain up space。