今日投资

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　　根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www.investoday.com.cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的盈利预测数据进行的统计，上周综合盈利预测（2012年）调高幅度居前的25只股票中，行业分布较为分散，石油与天然气、机械制造、房地产、化工品、金属与采矿、综合金融服务类股票均录得2只，其余个股则分布在制药、建筑材料、纺织品和服饰、汽车制造、软件、电力等行业中。近日来，市场对国内油价将上调的预期日益增强，下面我们来重点点评一下。

According to today's investment《Online analysts》（www.investoday.com.cn）To domestic nearly hundred mainstreams research organization of more than 4000 analysts profit forecast of the data in the statistics，Last week the comprehensive profit forecast（2012 years）The high rate of the first 25 stocks，Industry distribution is scattered，Oil and natural gas、Machinery manufacturing、Real estate、chemicals、Metals and mining、Comprehensive financial services stocks are recorded two，The rest is distributed in pharmaceutical stocks、Building materials、Textiles and clothing、Auto manufacturing、software、Electric power, and other industries。In recent days，The market for domestic oil prices will rise expected is growing，Below we come to point to comment on it。

　　本周（7月30日至8月3日），石油行业走强，一周涨0.88%，位居行业涨幅榜第三位。

This week（July 30, to aug. 3,），Oil industry going strong，Rose 0.88% a week，In industry or list third。

　　进入7月份，国际油价迎来久违的利多因素。欧洲债务危机在希腊大选尘埃落定、6月底的欧盟夏季峰会意外收获四大成果后暂时趋于平静，而伊朗和叙利亚局势紧张重燃市场对石油供应短缺的担忧，重新为油价带来上涨动力。而7月底以来，投资者对欧美推出新一轮政策刺激的预期高涨，更是给原油市场带来新的支撑。7月份国际油价整体呈震荡上行走势，当月纽约市场油价和布伦特原油期价分别上涨3.6%和7.2%。

Into July，The international oil prices have long time no see of the factors。The European debt crisis in Greece election decided、At the end of June eu summer summit windfall four temporarily when results tend quiet，But Iran and Syria to reignite tensions between the market for oil supply shortage concerns，For oil prices rising again to bring power。And since the end of July，Investors in the new round of stimulus policies introduced Europe and high expectations，Crude oil market is given to bring new support。In July, the international oil prices whole shows concussion uplink movements，The New York market that month oil prices and brent crude oil QiJia up 3.6% and 7.2% respectively。

　　虽然距离上次油价调整（2012年7月11日）还未满22个工作日，但根据新华社石油价格系统发布的数据显示，7月31日、8月1日、8月2日三地（迪拜、布伦特、辛塔）原油移动平均价格变化率分别为5.02%、5.38%、5.68%，早已大幅突破4%的调价红线。市场预期，如果国际油价保持目前水平，8月9日国内成品油将再次迎来调价窗口，此次调价将结束国内成品油价连续下调的局面，迎来8月份的首次上调。

Although the last time oil prices distance adjustment（July 11, 2012）Also under 22 working days，But according to xinhua oil price system release figures show，July 31,、August 1,、On August 2, the three places（dubai、brent、Michael essien tower）Crude oil prices are moving average rate of 5.02%、5.38%、5.68%，Had a breakthrough 4% of the red line there。Market expectations，If the international oil prices remain at current levels，August 9, domestic oil refiners window will again)，The pricing will end the domestic product for the situation of oil prices down，The first hike in August。

　　不过有分析师指出，虽然三地原油变化率已破5%，但调价窗口能否如期开启还要看后期国际油价走势。目前看来，市场关注的焦点为地缘政治因素、欧洲债务风险以及新一轮量化宽松政策的推出。业内人士预计8月份影响国际油价走势的主要因素不会发生重大变化，国际油价将延续7月份的震荡走势。鉴于全球经济现状大不如前，欧债危机形势不会在短期出现逆转，持续了数月的弱势格局难以在短期内有所突破。

But analysts said，Although the three places crude oil rate was broken by 5%，But there can take to see the window open late oil prices in the international situation。Now it looks，The focus of attention of the market for geopolitical factors、European debt risk and a new round of quantitative easing launch。Insiders expect August international oil price movements influence factors will not happen important changes，The international oil prices will continue the oscillation of the trends in July。Given that the global economic situation than before，The debt crisis situation won't change in the short term，For months the weakness of the pattern in the short term to recover。

　　申银万国认为，目前，国际油价定价机制进入了指数阶段，金融因素在油价中所占的比重有40%-50%。综合考虑各方因素，国际油价将长期维持在100美元/桶上方的水平，并将在此基础上不断上行。而上游油源则是石油产业链中长期资本配置的最佳目标。在间接配置时，推荐以埃克森美孚、BP、雪佛龙、壳牌、道达尔、康菲为首的跨国私有石油巨头。在直接配置时，推荐海外投资，并首推哈萨克斯坦、美国、加拿大的石油区块。

Shenyin &wanguo think，At present，The international oil prices pricing mechanism into the index phase，Financial factors in oil prices in the proportion of 40%-50%。Considering all factors，The international oil prices will long remain at $100 a barrel of the above level，And will be based on the uplink constantly。And upstream oil source is oil industry chain of the medium and long term capital allocation best goal。In indirect configuration，Recommend to exxon mobil、BP、chevron、shell、total、Conocophillips, led by multinational private oil giant。In the direct configuration，Recommend overseas investment，Specialists and kazakhstan、The United States、Canada's oil block。