投资只关乎一件事：应对未来。没有人能够确切地预知未来，所以风险是不可避免的。

Investment just about one thing：Deal with future。No one can quite predict the future，So the risk is inevitable。

　　我们都致力于追求杰出的投资回报，而且大多数人都明白，风险管理和获得回报之间有着莫大(博客,微博)的关系。由此，正统的投资观念进而把议论焦点放在回报与波动性的关系上。但我认为，这还远不能说明全部问题。

We are all committed to pursue outstanding return on investment，And most people understand，Risk management and returns have great(blog,Micro bo)relationship。this，Orthodox investment concept and then talk to focus on the returns and the relationship of volatility。But I think，This is far cannot explain the whole problem。

　　在我的观念中，市况好的时候，总会时常听到许多人说，“想要获得高回报，就应该承受更高风险。”但事实是，千万别指望风险较高的投资一定能带来更高回报。原因很简单：如果高风险投资真的确定能够提供高回报，那么它就不再属于高风险投资了！

In my view，Good market，Always often hear many people said，“Want to earn higher returns，You should hold higher risk。”But the fact is，Don't count on the risk is higher investment can bring higher returns。The reason is very simple：If high-risk investment really sure can provide high returns，Then it is no longer belong to the high risk investment！

　　正确的表述应该是，为了吸引资金，高风险投资必须提供高回报前景或者高回报承诺，或高回报预期。然而，这绝不是说高潜在回报一定可以实现。

The correct statement should be，In order to attract funds，High-risk investment must provide high returns or high returns prospect commitment，Or high return expectations。however，This is not the high potential return can certainly say realization。

　　何谓风险？风险有许多种，波动性可能与它们的相关度最低。理论上，投资者要求从波动性更大的投资中获得更高的回报。但要让市场设定的投资价格使波动性更高的投资看来可提供更高的回报，则必须有人对此种关系有需求，但我从未碰到过这种情况。因此，我很难相信波动性是投资者在设定价格和潜在回报时考虑的风险。

What is the risk？There are many kinds of risk，Volatility may and their correlation minimum。In theory，Investors are demanding more from the volatility of investment in higher returns。But let the market price volatility of investment to set higher investment seem to provide higher returns，It must be someone else is kind of relationship is demand，But I have never met the situation。so，I find it hard to believe that volatility is set prices and potential investors in return for risk。

　　若非波动性，那什么才是衡量风险的指标？我认为人们不愿投资的主要原因是担心本金遭受损失或回报低至不可接受，而不是波动性。我确信，“风险”首要是指损失资金的可能性。除此之外还有其他多种风险，其中多数会对我们每个人产生不同程度的影响。这意味着它们具有主观性和个别性，而并非投资本身的内在风险。

Were it not for volatility，That what is the measure risk index？I think people don't want to investment is the main cause of worry about the loss of the principal or return to low is not acceptable，Instead of volatility。I'm sure，“risk”First is to point to the possibility of losing money。In addition there are other various risks，Most of which each of us will produce the influence of different level。This means that they have the subjectivity and individual，And not the internal risk investment itself。

　　如何衡量风险呢？首先，对未来做出训练有素的估计是有可能的，但估计始终只是估计。其次，量化的标准是不存在的。对于任何特定投资，都会有一些人认为风险较高，而另一些人认为风险较低。有人将风险称为不赚钱的可能性，有人则将其称为损失一定比例资金（诸如此类）的可能性。有人认为它是时限一年的损失风险，有些人则认为它是跨度为整个持有期的损失风险。再次，风险是有欺骗性的。常规性事件很容易估计，但反常的、千载难逢的事件很难被量化。

How to measure risk？first，To make the future of well-trained estimate is possible，But estimates that always is only an estimate。second，Quantitative standard is not exist。For any particular investment，There's some people think the risk is higher，And some other people think there is a lower risk。Someone will risk, called the possibility of making money，Others will be called it a certain proportion of capital losses（such）Possibility of。Some people think that it is a loss risk in the time limit，Some people argue that it is for the entire span of holding the risks of losses。again，Risk is deceptive。Routine events is easy to estimate，But the abnormal、The event is difficult to quantify once in a blue moon。

　　理解风险的关键是：风险很大程度上是一个见仁见智的问题。即使是在事件发生之后，也难以对风险有明确的认识。当你看到一位投资者在经济不景气的时候比另一位投资者损失得少时，你可能得出这个投资者所承担的风险较小的结论。或者当你注意到一项投资在特定环境下比另外一项投资跌得厉害时，你可能因此便说它的风险较大。这些结论一定是正确的吗？

Understanding the key risk is：Risk is largely a matter of preference。Even after the event，Also is difficult to a clear understanding of the risk。When you see an investor in the economic recession than another investors lost to for a little while，You may draw the investors of the risks of smaller conclusion。Or when you pay attention to an investment in a certain environment than another investment fell badly，You may therefore said the risk is bigger。These conclusions must be correct？

　　平心而论，我认为投资表现是一系列事件——地缘政治的、宏观经济的、公司层面的、技术的、心理的——与当前投资组合相碰撞的结果。伦敦商学院的资产发展研究权威埃尔罗伊·迪姆森曾经说过：“风险意味着可能发生的事件多于确定发生的事件。”他的话可以理解为：未来有多种可能性，但结果却只有一个。你得到的结果对你的投资组合可能有益，也可能有害，这可能取决于你的远见、谨慎或者运气。你的投资组合在一种情况下的表现与它在其他可能发生的“未然历史”下的表现毫不相干。

In all fairness，I think the investment performance is a series of events-geopolitics、Macro economic、The company level、technology、Psychological-and the current investment combination of the collision of the results。The London business school assets development research authority Elmer Roy Tim sen once said：“Risk means that happen more than sure happen。”His words to understand：The future has a variety of possibility，But it is only one。You get to your portfolio results may be beneficial，Can be harmful，This may depend on your vision、Caution or luck。Your portfolio in a case with it in the performance of the other possible“History what shall be”The performance of the under irrelevant。

　　收益本身——尤其是短期收益——不能说明投资决策的质量。评估收益时必须权衡实现收益所承担的风险。然而，风险是无法衡量的。它不能以某一时刻的“众议”作为衡量基础。只有老练的、经验丰富的深层次思维者才能判断出风险。（作者为美国橡树资本董事长及联合创始人）

Income itself-especially the short-term gain-not that the quality of the investment decisions。Evaluate the benefit must weigh the realizes the income risks borne。however，Risk is beyond measure。It can in a moment“Against the”As a measure of foundation。Only the sophisticated、The experienced profound thinking person to judge the risk。（The author for American oak capital co-founder and chairman）