7月10日国务院召开经济形势座谈会，温家宝总理和其他国务院领导及经济条线部委领导听取汇报，兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委作为专家团成员之一建言献策；即使早就拥有“预测帝”封号，即使早已在各类演讲台上久经战阵，但他仍表示那时感到有些紧张，因为要在非常短的规定时间内把较为复杂而专业的问题说清楚并非易事！

On July 10, economic situation symposium held under the state council，Premier wen jiabao and other leaders of the state council and economic line ministries leadership listen to report，Industrial bank(601166,Shares it)Chief economist John as a member of the expert commissar BSFLP；Even if would have“Prediction emperor”titles，Even if have already been speeches on the stage militia，But he still says at that time was nervous，Because want to be in a very short time provisions are more complex and professional problem clear is not easy！

　　高产分析师 High yield analysts

　　“预测帝”的封号来自于鲁政委此前对利率和准备金率调整之类政策的多次精确预判，而除了准确程度让人惊叹之外，他的高“产出”也让人印象深刻，有时候记者一天可以收到他4封报告邮件。

“Prediction emperor”'s titles from lu commissar of interest rates and reserve rate after adjustment, the accurate predictions policy many times，And besides accuracy is amazing away，His high“output”Also impressive，Sometimes reporters a day to receive his four sealing report mail。

　　与他一起做过节目的同行曾给这样的评价：终于见到了传说中的鲁政委，

And he do together at the feast had given such purpose peer evaluation：Finally met the legendary lu commissar，

　　一如所想象 “勤奋、成果多、反应快、滔滔不绝”。曾与他一起在兴业银行资金营运中心工作的同事说，鲁政委的产出非常快，就算自己加班也无法完成他的数量。尽管已被认为十分高效，鲁政委仍然觉得时间不够用。“很多时候，我是脑袋够用，但手不够用。”他说。

As we have imagination “diligence、Results more、Quick response、interposition”。Had with him in the industrial bank capital operations center work colleagues said，Lu the commissar's output very fast，Even if their work overtime cannot finish his number。Although have been considered very efficient，Lu commissar still feel time not enough use。“Most of the time，My head is enough，But hand not enough use。”He said。

　　诚如他以前的同事所说，鲁政委给他的印象就是对研究特别有热情，而问起对研究的专注，鲁政委自己一言以蔽之：“就是喜欢！只有热爱才是最好的老师，它远远地超过责任感！”

As his former colleagues say，Lu commissar his impression of research have enthusiasm is special，And asked about the focus of research，Lu commissar himself to cap it：“Is like！Only love is the best teacher，It far far more than sense of responsibility！”

　　不过，这个气场朴实的分析师也提到，和过去相比，最近写的报告数量有所减少。主要是因为他只有一个助手，在外出演讲次数和所占用的时间越来越多的情况下，一直以来都坚持所有报告都自己亲力亲为的他，也只得如此。

but，The gas simple analysts also mentioned，Than in the past and，Recently wrote the report quantity reduced。Mainly because he is only a assistant，Out in the speech that takes up times and more and more time，Has been all insisted on all his hands-on his report，Also had to so。

　　他希望能够增加人手，不过在他看来，招到合适的人并不容易，因为鲁政委一直都希望能够遇到从心底里喜欢研究的人来从事这份工作。因为在他看来，研究工作是很难精确量化考核和进行有效外部监督的脑力劳动，只能“激励”不能“挤榨”，所以，一个人从心底里喜欢研究并不以为苦，是确保高水准研究成果的最佳质量控制体系。

He hope to be able to more people，But in his view，To bring them to the right people is not easy，Because the commissar lu has been hopes to be able to meet from the bottom of the men like to do the job。Because in his view，Research work is difficult to accurately quantification assessment and external supervision and mental work effectively，Can only“incentive”Can't“Crowded the”，so，A person from the bottom of the study did not think like bitter，To ensure high research results is the best quality control system。

　　也许幸运的是，鲁政委找到自己钟爱的研究工作，并没有走过什么弯路。从他的简历上看，他博士毕业后便顺利进入了兴业银行。鲁政委说，当初是追随太太的选择来到上海，他觉得自己只适合做研究，所以，求职简历就主要投向了机构研究类岗位和高校，所幸现在的东家兴业银行将他从千军万马的应届毕业生求职队伍中“搭救”了出来，这是在他本科毕业即在西安电子科技大学任教之后的第二份工作。

Maybe fortunately，Lu commissar find his beloved research work，And what not passed detour。From his resume look，Dr. He after college successfully to enter the bank。Lu said the commissar，It is to follow the choice of Mrs. Come to Shanghai，He felt only suitable for research，so，Your resume to the major research institutions and universities of post，But now the club industrial bank will he from an army of fresh graduates to apply for a job in the team“deliver”out，This is in his undergraduate course graduation namely in xian university of electronic science and technology of teaching after a second job。

　　与绝大多数金融机构首席经济学家一般均有海外高校求学背景或国际机构工作经历不同，鲁政委的教育经历完全是“本土化”的，并没喝过什么洋墨水。本科和硕士都在西安求学，此后考入在北京的中国社会科学院，攻读西方经济学宏观经济学方向博士。2007年9月，市场对美国经济仍是一片乐观情绪，他撰写了“美国次按余波难平”的研究报告，并力谏金融机构QDII的出海步伐应当放缓；在2008年1月23日美联储大幅降息75bp之际，他也给出了美联储未来可能出台量化宽松政策（QE）的判断。

And most of the financial institutions, chief economist of general education are overseas universities or international institutions work experience different，Lu the commissar's education experience is completely“localization”of，And what the yankees didn't drink ink。Undergraduate and post-graduate study in xian，Since then was admitted to the Chinese academy of social sciences in Beijing，A western economics macroeconomics dr direction。September 2007，The market of the American economy is still a piece of optimism，He wrote“According to The Times difficult to flat wake”Research report，BingLi doing financial institutions shall be slow pace of the QDII went out to sea；On January 23, 2008 the fed cut interest rates sharply 75 of bp，He also gives the federal reserve on possible future quantitative easing（QE）judgment。

　　2006年鲁政委发表了对粮价的分析预测报告，与当时只是从粮食供给角度分析的主流观点不同，他从需求角度入手分析后认为：粮食上涨的时间会比市场预期的持续得更久。而最终的结果显示，粮价上行持续的时间不仅长于市场的预期，甚至比他预计的还要长。

2006 years of published the commissar robust food prices forecast analysis report，And at that time only from the perspective of the mainstream of the food supply a different perspective，From his perspective that demand analysis：High food prices of time than market expectations of last longer。And the final results are shown，The duration of the uplink food prices not only longer than market expectations，Even more than he is more long。

　　2007年国内经济过热，法定存款准备金率全年共计历经10次上调，鲁政委准确预测了6次准备金率调整的时间窗口，而与当时大多人认为那一波准备金率调整不会超过过去的13%相比，鲁政委大胆预计上限是23%，最终那次准备金率调整到21.5%。2010年10月以来，他们的团队连续14次精确地判断了人民银行政策出台的窗口，而被台湾媒体叫做“十四冠王”，那时恰逢世界杯过后“预测帝”章鱼保罗红极一时，国内媒体又冠以鲁政委“预测帝”、“章鱼哥”的雅号。

2007 domestic economic overheating，Legal deposit reserve rate year after 10 times in the increase，Lu commissar accurately predict with six reserve rate adjust time window，And at that time most people think that with a wave of reserve rate adjustment can't more than 13% in the past，Lu commissar bold upper limit is expected to 23%，Finally the reserve fund rate adjustment to 21.5%。Since October 2010，Their team continuous 14 times accurately judge the people's bank of the policies of the window，And by Taiwan media called“Fourteen crown”，Then comes after the World Cup“Prediction emperor”Octopus Paul and outspoken，Domestic media and robust as the commissar“Prediction emperor”、“Octopus elder brother”Popularly known。

　　精准的预测，让鲁政委的头衔快速变换。2006年6月，鲁政委成为兴业银行资金营运中心研究处的首批员工之一，从事宏观经济分析工作；2008年4月他成为资金营运中心首席经济学家，2009年4月成为兴业银行全行的资深经济学家，2011年7月成为兴业银行首席经济学家。

Accurate prediction，The title of the commissar allow John quick change。June 2006，Lu commissar become industrial bank capital operations center work out the first one of the employees，Engaged in the macro economic analysis；In April 2008, he become capital operations center's chief economist，In April 2009, the industrial bank of both become senior economist，In July 2011 as the bank's chief economist。

　　鲁政委提起，常有人看到他会问：首席怎么这么年轻？而他自己觉得，作为一个市场分析师年纪不能太大，因为太老了可能就无法自己看数据，只能依靠助手完成，但助手可能会过滤掉一些与他们自己思路不一样的东西，这可能导致分析师错失新想法。反过来，首席分析师也不能太年轻，因为那样对中国的现实状况还不够了解，比如中国的政策千差万别，但永远只会用“稳健”一词来形容，如果不清楚现实状况，就很难洞察政策的细微变化。

John mentioned the commissar，People always see he will ask：Chief how so young？And he think，As a market analyst age can not be too big，Because it's too old may be unable to see the data，Can only rely on assistant completed，But assistant may filter out some and their own ideas different things，This can lead to analysts miss new ideas。In turn，Chief analysts also cannot too young，Because of the reality of China that is still not enough understanding，Such as China's policies differ in thousands ways，But can only use“steady”A word to describe，If not clear the realistic situation，It is difficult to insight into the policy changes。

　　他认为一个分析师在中国的黄金年龄，在35~45岁之间。国外的投行在中国区的首席经济学家首次拿到首席头衔都没超过40岁。如此相比，他其实也不算年轻！

He thinks a analysts in China's golden age，In the 35 to 45 years old between。Foreign investment in China, chief economist of the first to get the title chief didn't more than 40 years old。Compared so，He actually is not young！

　　几种角色的纠结 Several of the role of entanglements

　　收获名气往往意味着更忙碌的生活。最近看到一个银行的宏观分析师的个性签名上写“50天飞22000公里，我不是投行，我是银行”。

Gain fame usually means more busy life。Recently saw a bank of macro analysts' character signature on writing“50 days to fly 22000 km，I'm not investment Banks，I am bank”。

　　鲁政委也说，一个分析师如果做得很好，一定会有很多差要出。他去年就奔波在一些国家部委的专家座谈会和各类培训会、兴业银行各分行的市场营销推介和同业机构举办的同业交流会议之间。也许某种意义上可以认为，受到的邀请多少代表你受认可的程度，但也要控制节奏，鲁政委说，助手终究不能代替自己，自己希望可以留出更多的时间来做分析。

Lu commissar also said，A analysts if do very well，There will be a lot to the poor。He rode the last year in some countries the ministries and all kinds of training experts forum、Industrial bank of each branch market marketing promotion and trade institutions of trade between meetings held communication。Maybe a sense can think，By how much you invited representatives recognized degree，But also to control the rhythm，Lu said the commissar，Ultimately can't take the place of his assistant，You want to spend more time to do analysis。

　　除了出差之外，如何考核一个分析师的业绩和贡献，鲁政委为此也曾纠结了很久。每次遇到被视为已经运作相当成熟的国际同业，他都不会放弃与他们探讨这个问题看法的机会，但直到现在他也未能从先行者那里得到一个可以借鉴的公式化评价体系。

In addition to travel outside，How to assessment a analysts' performance and contributions，Lu also had the commissar for this tangle for a long time。Every time meet was deemed to have been quite mature international trade operation，He won't give up and they discussed the problems of opportunities，But until now he also failed to get from pioneer one could draw the formulation evaluation system。

　　鲁政委认为，其实分析师的工作很难有一个具体的指标体系来进行量化评价。他们曾经采取过一些做法，比如一定的报告数量或者预测的准确程度。但也带来了一些问题，鲁政委说，毕竟没有人能够永远正确，由于很多政策判断并非简单的二选一，因而，他认为如果一个分析师判断的准确率有50%，那其实已经是相当优秀了；对准确率的过分强调还可能带来另外一个后果，那就是可能会迫使分析师尽量少下结论，毕竟“多说多错、少说少错”，而这样会扼杀一个分析师的灵光闪现和前瞻性研判的价值。

Lu commissar think，In fact analysts work is difficult to have a specific index system for evaluation。They had to take some practice，For example certain report quantity or the accuracy of the prediction。But also brought some questions，Lu said the commissar，After all, no one can always correct，Because many policy judgment is not simple two things，so，He thought that if a judge has 50% accuracy of analysts，That actually is already quite good；Too much emphasis on accuracy could have another consequences，That is could force analysts as little as possible to conclusions，After all“Making mistake、Less said little wrong”，And this will kill a analysts' ez and forward-looking judge value。

　　话虽如此，但鲁政委自己却不能超脱对准确预判的苛刻追求。他坦言，如果政策出台或形势变化而自己未能准确预见到，即使没有人找他对照，他心里也会非常难受；而一旦被预言到，他也会掩饰不住地“嚣张”“炫耀”一番。他觉得，只有拥有这种激情，才能做好分析师的工作，而那种对预判对错与否无所谓，“反正自己也没放钱进去”的人，在鲁政委看来，他们一定不是一个称职的分析师。他认为，既然脑力劳动“无法挤榨只能激励”，那么，分析师自己对自己的监督就是最为有效和重要的。

nevertheless，But lu commissar myself not being accurate predictions of the harsh pursuit。He said，If policies or the changing situation and his failed to accurately to foresee，Even if no one find he controls，His heart is very uncomfortable；And once they are predicted，He will hide not stopped“arrogant”“Show off”a。He felt，Only have this passion，Can make a good analysts work，And that kind of anticipation of right or wrong or not doesn't matter，“Anyway, oneself also didn't put money in”people，In municipal administration seems robust，They must not a qualified analysts。He thinks，Now that mental work“Can't squeeze the only incentive”，so，Analysts to supervision is the most effective and important。

　　不过，对于如何给出政策判断，同时避免市场误解，鲁政委也有感到很为难的时候。鲁政委说，作为分析师会面临着几种角色的纠结：业务部门想要从你这知道接下来“会”怎么样，但作为分析师还应站在社会责任感及分析师个人主见的角度去谈“应该”怎么样。因此，有时候他们在说“应该”的时候，市场却认为他是在说“会”，而在很多时候，分析师认为“应该”的政策不一定就“会”去实施。比如，今年第一次降息之前，他就认为：为避免房地产出现反弹，“应该”扩大贷款的下浮范围，引导对急需支持领域的贷款利率向下浮动，而“不应该”调降基准利率。但最终的结果却是除了扩大了存、贷利率的浮动范围，还下调了贷款利率，结果不出意料房价出现了反弹。

but，As to how to give policy judgment，At the same time avoid market misunderstanding，Lu commissar also have felt very embarrassed。Lu said the commissar，As analysts will face several role entanglements：Business department want from you this know the next“will”how，But as analysts also should stand in the social responsibility and personal opinion Angle to analysts talk“should”how。so，Sometimes they said“should”when，The market is think he's said“will”，And in many cases，Analysts believe“should”The policy is not necessarily“will”To implement。For example，This year before the first cut，He think：To avoid real estate rebounded，“should”Expanding the scope of the past loans，Guide to need support in the field of floating down mortgage rates，and“Should not”The benchmark interest rate reduction。But the final results are in addition to expand the deposit、Loan interest rate's fluctuation range，Also cut interest rates，The results not surprisingly house prices appeared to rebound。

　　对于年内的货币政策，鲁政委依然跟记者强调，年内没必要继续降息，但他预测还会有多次存款准备金率下调。他同时强调，在流动性不存在较大缺口的情况下，央行可以用逆回购进行调节而不必急于下调法定存款准备金率。暂时维持一个相对较高的法定存款准备金率可能在未来国际资本大量外流的时刻到来时，反倒有利于国内信心的稳定。

The monetary policy for years，Lu commissar with journalists still emphasize，Years without necessary to continue to cut interest rates，But he predicted the deposit reserve rate has many times。And he stressed that，In liquidity does not exist big gap，The central bank can use inverse adjusted and need not anxious to repurchase cut legal deposit reserve rate。Temporary maintain a relatively high legal deposit reserve rate may be in the future international capital a large number of outflow of time arrival，But help domestic confidence stability。

　　

最需要一把躺椅 The most needed a deck chair

　　判断形势和政策，是一个高风险的抉择，不过鲁政委本人却是个风险规避者。其对于生活的追求以及对未来的规划，出人意料地简单。

Judge situation and policy，Is a high risk of choice，But lu commissar is a risk the I。Its for the pursuit of living and for the future of planning，Surprisingly simple。

　　也许别人会感到很奇怪，以把握经济形势见长的人，在个人的投资中也应该是风险的“弄潮儿”才对！但匪夷所思的是，除自用的住房之外，鲁政委说他大部分资产都是银行活期存款。对此，他很坦然地说：每个人一定要选择适合自己的投资方式。正如十八班兵器，刀枪剑戟斧钺钩叉本无优劣，只是要看你哪样能够用得得心应手。他觉得银行理财产品的收益稳定而可靠，能够使得账面财富连年增值，其实已强过让人操心吵架的股票，不过经常出差往往让他错过了理财产品的发售期。

Others may feel very strange，To make good economic situation，In personal investment should be also risk“wet”to！But the is ridiculous，Except for use outside of housing，Lu said most of his assets are commissar is the bank current deposit。this，He is very confident：Every one must choose the suitable investment。As 18 class weapon，FuYue hook spear big sugarcoated haws fork this is no better，Just want to see which you can use handy。He felt that the bank financial products gains stable and reliable，Can make the book value wealth in successive years，In fact already better than to quarrel about the stock，But often on business often let he missed the financial products offer period。

　　“天下没有免费的午餐”，有收获就得有付出！不仅鲜少有时间来为自己理财，鲁政委也坦陈没有更多的时间锻炼身体和陪伴家人。而他最向往的休闲方式，就是周末不用出差，可以搬一把椅子，躺在客厅里，喝喝茶吹吹风，什么也不用想。“一杯清茶权当酒，半壶香茗醉成仙！”这种宠辱皆忘的状态，乃是人生至境！

“There is no free lunch”，Harvest will have to pay！Not only for his own little time fresh financial management，Lu commissar also admitted no more time to exercise body and with his family。But his most yearning way of recreation，Is weekend need not on business，Can move a chair，Lying in the sitting room，A bug drink tea，What also don't want to。“A cup of green tea replace wine，Half pot of fragrant teas drunk to become immortal！”This kind of pet is the state of humiliation and forget，But life ZhiJing！