本报记者 张泰欣

Our correspondent ZhangTai hin

　　专家表示，固定资产投资企稳基本成为市场共识，三季度投资的整体增速可能会在20%的水平，而公共设施投资、民间投资的增速可能继续保持上行态势，未来将是拉动投资增长的主力。国家统计局9日公布的数据显示，1-7月，固定资产投资累计增长20.4%，与前6个月持平，而房地产投资增速依然处于下滑通道，但回落的幅度逐步放缓。

Experts say，Fixed assets investment stabilising basic becomes the market consensus，Three quarters of the overall investment growth may be at 20%，And public facilities investment、The rate of growth of private investment likely to remain upward trend，The future will be the main drive investment growth。The national bureau of statistics 9, figures show，1-July，Fixed assets investment cumulative growth of 20.4%，And in the first six months flat，And real estate investment growth is still down channels，But the extent of the slowdown in fall gradually。

　　新开工项目计划投资增长 New project plan investment growth

　　1-7月，房地产投资同比增长15.4%，7月单月增长9.6%，继续处于下降通道。1-7月，制造业固定资产投资同比增长24.9%，较1-6月提高0.45个百分点。石油和天然气开采等行业固定资产投资增速环比也有较大提高。

1-July，Real estate investment year-on-year growth of 15.4%，Growth of 9.6% in the month of July，To continue falling channel。1-July，Manufacturing investment in fixed assets year-on-year growth of 24.9%，A 1-6 month increased by 0.45%。Oil and gas drilling industry such as fixed asset investment growth annulus comparing also are improved greatly。

　　国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群表示，房地产投资继续下滑，非房地产行业投资出现止跌回稳的迹象，电力、热力、公共设施等部门投资的增速基本企稳。从这些微观表象看，三季度整体投资增速仍将企稳，其中基建、公用设施项目的持续开工将成为保持整体投资增速的重要动力。三季度房地产投资还将继续下滑。虽然从销售数据看，房地产市场回暖，一些上市公司上半年销售创新高，但由于销售和投资之间存在滞后效应，房地产投资在短期内还难以反转，投资下滑的态势可能持续到四季度。

The state council development research center macroeconomic research ZhangLiQun researchers said，Real estate investment continue to slide，The real estate industry investment reason signs that he appeared，power、thermal、Public facilities and other departments of the basic stabilising investment growth。From these microscopic appearance to look，Three quarters of the overall investment growth will still stabilising，Including infrastructure、Public facilities of construction projects continue to maintain total investment growth will be an important power。Three quarters of the real estate investment will also continue to slide。Although the sales figures，The real estate market buoyancy，Some in the first half of the listed company sales innovation high，But because the sales and between investment lags，Real estate investment in the short term is difficult to reverse，The trend is likely to continue investment decline to the fourth quarter。

　　1-7月，新开工项目计划总投资约16.8万亿元，同比增长23.6%，提高0.4个百分点。农业银行(601288,股吧)金融市场部研究人士认为，未来新开工项目还会增长，三季度末到四季度将是地方政府项目集中释放期，中部省份尤其值得关注。

1-July，New projects to plan a total investment of 16.8 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 23.6%，0.4% increase。Agricultural bank(601288,Shares it)Financial marketing researchers think，The future new projects will also increase，At the end of the third quarter to quarter will be on local government projects release period，The central province especially worthy of attention。

　　下半年关注民间投资 Focus on private investment in the second half

　　1-7月，全国民间固定资产投资11.4万亿元，同比增长25.5%，增速比1-6月回落0.3个百分点。其中，工业民间固定资产投资5.9万亿元，同比增长29.1%，增速比1-6月提高0.2个百分点。从整体看，1-7月，民间资本投资在第一、第二、第三产业中的增速都高于全社会固定资产投资增速。

1-July，The national folk fixed capital investment of 11.4 trillion RMB yuan，Year-on-year growth of 25.5%，Growth than in the first 6 months of a drop of 0.3%。Among them，Folk industry investment in the fixed assets 5.9 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 29.1%，Growth than in the first 6 months increased by 0.2%。From the overall look，1-July，Folk capital investment in the first、The second、The third industry's growth than the social fixed asset investment growth。

　　申银万国证券研究所宏观经济研究员孟祥娟认为，最新的统计数据表明，鼓励民间资本进入石油和天然气开采、教育、卫生等行业的措施已初显成效。上半年民间资本保持了较快的增长势头，已成为投资增长新动力(310328,基金吧)。随着“非公36条”细则的全部出台，下半年细则将进入重点落实阶段。相信在四季度之前，民间投资在市政、能源、电信等领域会有更进一步的进展。

Shenyin &wanguo securities research institute MengXiangJuan macro economic researchers think，The latest statistics show that，Encourage private capital into oil and gas drilling、education、Health and other industry measures already previews effect。In the first half of the folk capital maintained rapid growth，Has become a new investment growth(310328,Fund it)。as“Non-state-owned article 36”All the rules to come，The second half of the detailed rules for the implementation of phase into a key。Believe in the fourth quarter before，Private investment in the city、energy、Telecommunications and other areas will have further progress。