2007-2009年以及此前的几个年头里，美国政界、投资界代表人物和主流财经媒体接连出现了两次严重误判。第一次误判，即在金融海啸引发经济危机之前，他们纷纷断言美国经济形势良好，短期内不存在引爆危机的可能性，美联储前主席格林斯潘及一些经济学家甚至还认为引发经济衰退、恐慌的周期因素，已经被当代美国和国际新兴经济模式、美国经济政策所消灭，长期稳定的繁荣不仅是可能的，也是必然的。第二次误判，出现在2008年底、2009年初，金融海啸的破坏性影响已初步显露，这些人仍然认为不足为虑，坚称人们将很快迎来“一次非常强劲且持久的经济回暖”。

2007-2009 and had a few years，The American political world、Investment community representatives, and the mainstream financial media continued appeared two serious miscalculation。The first misjudgment，That is in the financial tsunamis before the economic crisis，They are the economic situation assertion that good，In the short term there not detonated the possibility of crisis，Former federal reserve chairman Alan greenspan and some economists even think that cause economic recession、The cycle of panic factors，Have been contemporary American and international emerging economic mode、The American economy policy is destroyed，The prosperity of the long-term stability is not only possible，Also inevitable。The second misjudgement，Appeared in the end of 2008、In early 2009，The destructive impact of financial tsunami has been revealed，These people still think a minor worry，Insisted that people will soon have“A very strong and lasting economic thaw”。

　　对美国政界、投资界、财经媒体的失算，我们如今自然可以以事后诸葛亮的视角，给予批评分析乃至无情嘲笑。但需指出的是，上述误判被提出时，曾获得广泛认同，被视为市场主流判断有意思的是，对这种所谓“市场主流判断”深信不疑的人，往往听不进不同意见，哪怕提出警示的对方可以提供更为确切可信的证据。

The American government to、Investment community、The financial media miscarry，Now we can to natural wise after the event perspective，Giving critical analysis and even ruthless laughed at。But need to point out，The above misjudgment is proposed，Was widely recognized，Be regarded as mainstream judge what is interesting is the market，To the so-called“Market mainstream judge”Convinced people，Often hear not into the different opinions，Even if the warning each other can provide more exact credible evidence。

　　美国投资作家戴维·威德默等人合著，并于2006年出版的《美国的泡沫经济》一书，曾大胆发出预测，认为美国房地产泡沫将破灭、私人债务泡沫也将崩溃、股市泡沫会出现跌落。该书与其他少部分坚持美国经济、金融体系存在痼疾的著作或断言，在当时一道被主流市场当成了哗众取宠的杂音，投资银行家和经济学家们甚至懒得对之进行回应。戴维·威德默等人的预言在两年后悉数变成了现实，这让他们名声大噪。

The United States investment writer Davy janjaweed hammer's itri，And in 2006 published《America's bubble economy》book，Once a bold prediction，Think the United States is a real estate bubble will burst、Private debt bubble also will collapse、The stock market bubble will appear the decline。The book and other a few insists the United States economy、The financial system in illness or assert that works，At that time was a mainstream market as the sensationalistic noise，Investment bankers and economists and even lazy to respond。Davy janjaweed hammer's prediction of the festival in two years into reality，This lets them famous。

　　随即，他们又在2009年推出了《下一轮经济危机》初版，对美国乃至全球经济将迅速回暖的“主流市场判断”给予严厉抨击。这后一本书更为具体地梳理分析出美国经济结构中存在的多重经济泡沫，认为金融海啸、经济危机尚没有使之破灭，并且随着美国当局的救市干预行动及其他投资于美国市场的国家、企业的相关动作，泡沫还在进一步吹大，将在巨大的经济下行压力下，制造出更严重的经济危机。

immediately，And they launched in 2009《The next round of the economic crisis》)，The United States and the global economy will quickly warmed“Mainstream market judgment”Give severe attack。This book is more specific to comb the economic structure, the paper analyses the existing in the economic foam multiple，Think financial tsunami、The economic crisis is still not the end，And as the U.S. authorities help city intervention and other investment in the market of the country、Enterprise of relevant action，Bubble is still in further blow，Will be in the huge economic downside under pressure，Produce more serious economic crisis。

　　摆在我们面前的，是经修订完善后推出的《下一轮经济危机》。这本书界定的美国六重经济泡沫，包括房地产泡沫、股市泡沫、私人债务泡沫、可自由支配的开支泡沫、美元泡沫、政府债务泡沫。作者认为，美国在20世纪80年代早期所做出的决策导致了政府财政预算赤字；从那时起，六种联合依存的经济泡沫就在日益膨胀，并且都在促进着美国经济的繁荣；他们所作的判断是，前四种泡沫已经开始破灭，就在这两年“市场主流判断”再一次认为经济最艰难时期已经过去的时候，后两种泡沫将以更为剧烈的程度爆发。作者预测认为，当美元泡沫和政府债务泡沫开始破灭时，投资者、企业和政府都将视而不见，然后拖到危急关头，才开始采取措施解决迫在眉睫的问题。

We have before us，Is the revised after the perfect launch《The next round of the economic crisis》。This book definition of six U.S. heavy economic bubble，Include real estate bubble、Stock market bubble、Private debt bubble、Discretionary spending bubble、Dollars bubble、The government debt bubble。The authors think that the，The United States in the early 1980 s led to the decision made by the government budget deficit；From then on，Six joint interdependent economy the bubble in an increasingly inflation，And in promoting the American economy；Their judgment is，The first four kind of bubble has burst at the start，In the two years“Market mainstream judge”Again, that the economy is the most difficult period is over，The latter two bubbles will to more extreme degree outbreaks。The author claims that，When the dollar foam and government debt bubble burst at the start，investors、Enterprise and the government will turn a blind eye，And then dragged a crisis，Begin to take steps to solve urgent problems。

　　《下一轮经济危机》大胆批评了诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼。克鲁格曼不断宣称美国增发货币的规模太小，希望出台力度更大的财政刺激方案。此书则认为，克鲁格曼罔顾美国经济体系不断下行、陷入更大规模衰退的事实，仅仅从美国经济处在“下行市场周期”的基点出发论证，并以错误推论“每一个下行市场周期最终会迎来上行市场周期”，来为美国政府经济刺激举措提供合理性论证。

《The next round of the economic crisis》Bold criticized the Nobel economic prize winner Paul krugman。Krugman constantly that the United States by the size of the currency is too small，More on efforts to fiscal stimulus plan。The book is considered，Krugman disregard for the American economic system constantly to the downside、In the fact that more large-scale recession，From the American economy in only“Downside market cycle”On the basis of argument，And with that wrong“Each down market cycle will eventually have upward market cycles”，For the U.S. government to economic stimulus measures to provide rationality。

　　戴维·威德默等人认为下一轮经济危机将于最近几年内发生，强调以美国为中心的美元泡沫和政府债务泡沫破灭引发经济危机时，美国遭受的痛苦将会最少。相对应的，中国、印度、巴西等从美国主导的金融和贸易现有体系中受益最大的一些新兴市场国家，将受到十分沉重的打击，理由是这些国家的低端制造出口业从根本上依赖于美国；同理，日本、德国的高端制造出口业也将因美国泡沫经济体系的崩盘而被击溃。

Davy janjaweed hammer people believe that the next round of the economic crisis in recent years will happen，Stressed in the United States, for the center of the foam and government debt dollar crisis triggered bubble economy，The United States suffered from pain will be at least。corresponding，China、India、Brazil leading from the United States the financial and trade in the current system will benefit most of some of the emerging market countries，Will be very heavy blow，Reason is the low-end manufacturing exports in these countries ultimately depends on the United States；similarly，Japan、Germany's high-end manufacturing exports in the United States will be a bubble economy system crash and be defeated。

　　《下一轮经济危机》同样不看好目前被许多国家和地区寄予厚望的绿色经济，认为世界经济的持续走低将导致绿色经济获得投资减少，且面临更为严峻的市场环境。

《The next round of the economic crisis》Do not expect the same now are many countries and regions have high hopes the green economy，Think of the world economy will keep falling in the green economy to reduce their investment，And facing more severe market environment。