6月以来CBOT玉米和大豆期货价格大幅上涨，并通过贸易渠道对国内价格产生影响

Since June, CBOT corn and soybean futures prices are rising dramatically，And through the trade channel to the domestic price effect

　　今年6月以来美国主要粮食产区的旱情对全球粮食供需基本面造成了较大影响，国际粮食期货与现货价格均大幅上涨，并通过贸易等渠道带动国内粮价上行。从今年旱情的严重程度判断，未来国际粮食价格仍有上涨空间，国内价格亦将相应调整，但调整幅度依供应结构中进口部分占比的不同而有所区别。

In June this year since the main food production to the global food supply and demand of drought caused a great influence on the fundamentals，The international food spot and futures prices are rising dramatically，And through the trade channels such as domestic food prices driven upward。The severity of the drought information from this year's judgment，Future international food prices are still rising space，The domestic price also will be adjusted accordingly，But according to the supply structure adjustment range of imported parts accounting for the different than category。

　　由于近期价格上涨较为剧烈的品种在我国居民消费篮子中占比较低，对国内CPI的影响主要通过“猪周期”等间接机制，预计粮价对年内CPI走势影响不大，但将对明年CPI增速产生一定的向上拉动作用。

With the recent price rise more violent varieties in the residents' consumption of the nation in the basket of low，The influence of the CPI to domestic mainly through“Pig cycle”Indirect mechanism，Food prices are expected to for years the impact is not big trend CPI，But to CPI growth next year will produce certain upward pull function。

　　玉米和豆粕是我国生猪养殖的主要饲料原料，近期国内玉米和豆粕价格的上涨使生猪养殖的成本大幅提高，或将加速目前的猪肉价格和生猪存栏下行周期，令猪肉价格在年底前见底回升。

Corn and soybean meal is China's major pig-producing feed raw materials，Recent domestic corn and soybean prices make pig-producing cost greatly improved，Or will speed up the current price of pork pigs and hand down cycle，Pork prices before the end of the year to see an end to bounce back。

　　⊙特华博士后工作站 李刚朱品

Postdoctoral workstation ⊙, China ZhuPin li gang

　　旱情加大全球粮食供需矛盾 Link to increase the global food, the contradiction between supply and demand

　　6月以来，美国经历了严重的干旱，月降水量只有历史平均水平的50%左右，主要粮食产区旱情尤为严重，中央平原地区月均气温创历史新高，超过历史平均水平5华氏度。

Since June of，The United States experienced severe drought，Monthly rainfall only historic average of about 50%，The main food production is particularly severe drought，The central plains standard temperature a record，More than historic average five degrees Fahrenheit。

　　美国约60%的玉米和大豆播种面积处在干旱区域，而美国玉米和大豆产量分别占全球的40%和32%，因此美国持续的旱情严重威胁了今年全球玉米和大豆的供需基本面，美国农业部在6月全球农产品供需预测报告中大幅下调了美国及全球的2012年玉米和大豆产量预测。

About 60% of the U.S. corn and soybeans planting area in dry areas，And the American corn and soybean production respectively 40% and 32% of the world，So the United States of persistent threat to the drought this year global corn and soybean supply and demand fundamentals，The United States department of agriculture in June in the report of the global agricultural supply and demand forecast slashed the United States and the world's 2012 years corn and soybean production forecast。

　　国际粮食价格对国内价格的影响主要是通过贸易渠道，供给结构中进口占比越高的品种，国内价格与国际价格的相关性越强。

The international food prices on the influence of the domestic price is primarily through trade channels，Supply structure of the higher import than varieties，The domestic price and the price of the stronger international correlation。

　　在众多指标中，粮食期末库存量和当期消费量比（简称“库消比”）是反映粮食供需基本面的综合性指标，从历史数据对比中可以发现，库消比和粮食价格的拐点几乎一一对应，并且库消比变动幅度对粮食价格变动幅度也有一定的解释力（影响粮食价格变动幅度的另一重要因素是美元指数的变动）。

In many index，The final inventories and current food consumption ratio（Referred to“Library away than”）The supply and demand of food is a reflection of the basic comprehensive index，From the historical data can be found in the comparison，Library away the food price than and inflection point almost exactly corresponding，And library away on food prices than variations variations are also to some extent（The amplitude of the change on food prices another factor is the dollar index changes）。

　　由于今年美国的旱情在历史上亦属较为严重，且6月和7月正是玉米和大豆成长较为关键的时期，因此预计玉米和大豆的库消比将进入下行区间，在美元指数下半年难以大幅上涨的情况下，虽然玉米和大豆价格均已创历史新高，但后期仍有上涨的空间，并将通过各种渠道拉动国内玉米和大豆价格上行。

The United States this year because of the drought in the history of serious also，And June and July is growing corn and soybeans are critical period，Thus a corn and soybean library than will enter the downside interval away，In the second half of the dollar index to rise sharply，Although corn and soybean prices are already a record，But later still have the space that rise，And through various channels boosting domestic maize and soybean prices upward。

　　 通过“猪周期”间接影响CPI Through the“Pig cycle”Indirect influence CPI

　　由于近期价格上涨较为剧烈的品种在我国居民消费篮子中占比较低，对国内CPI的影响主要通过“猪周期”等间接机制，预计粮价对年内CPI走势影响不大，但将对明年CPI增速产生一定的向上拉动作用。

With the recent price rise more violent varieties in the residents' consumption of the nation in the basket of low，The influence of the CPI to domestic mainly through“Pig cycle”Indirect mechanism，Food prices are expected to for years the impact is not big trend CPI，But to CPI growth next year will produce certain upward pull function。

　　猪周期是农户基于生猪养殖活动盈利水平而进行的库存调整行为所导致的生猪存栏量和猪肉价格的周期性波动。由于猪肉在我国居民消费篮子中的重要地位，猪周期是影响我国整体物价水平的重要因素。

Pig farmers cycle is based on pig-producing activities of the profit level inventory adjustment to CunLanLiang pigs behavior and the price of pork cyclical volatility。Because in our residents consumption basket pork the important position，The pig cycle is effect on our country's overall price level of important factor。

　　生猪养殖最主要的饲料是玉米和豆粕，因此玉米和豆粕价格也是影响生猪养殖盈利水平的重要因素。今年年初以来，猪肉价格不断走低，同时国内玉米和豆粕价格开始走高，从而令农户加速生猪出栏，而这又助推了猪肉的跌势。根据今年的供需基本面，玉米和大豆价格在下半年仍有可能继续上涨，加上6月份积累的涨幅，国内生猪养殖的盈利水平将迅速恶化，这将令农户加速生猪出栏的行为继续，根据目前的存栏水平，生猪存栏量预计将在今年12月或明年1月见底，并在春节之前开始升势。

The live pig breeding the main feed is corn and soybean meal，So corn and soybean meal price is also affect pig-producing the profit level of important factor。Since the beginning of this year，Pork prices currencies，While domestic corn and soybean prices start to go up，So as to accelerate the live pig farmers market，And that, in turn, helped break the pork。According to this year's supply and demand fundamentals，Corn and soybean prices in the second half is likely to continue to rise，In June the accumulation and increase，Domestic pig-producing profit level will rapidly deteriorating，It will speed up the live pig farmers market behavior to continue，According to the current level of the hand，Pig CunLanLiang is expected to be in December or January see bottom，And before Spring Festival upward trend began。

　　经测算，美国粮食期货价格上涨40%的情况对下个时期我国CPI的环比直接拉动作用不足0.05%，但其间接作用带动CPI环比上涨逾0.20%。

According to the calculation，The United States food futures prices 40% of the situation of our country during the next November CPI pull function directly to less than 0.05%，But the indirect effect drive the CPI annulus comparing rise of more than 0.20%。

　　从对CPI的影响角度考虑，因为在生猪存栏量下降到一定水平之前，猪肉价格将呈现回落走势，因此难以对CPI造成上行风险。春节前后预计猪肉价格将开始上行，但由于今年年初猪肉价格仍较高，因此猪肉价格上行对明年上半年CPI增速的影响在环比层面更为显著，对CPI同比增速的影响在明年下半年将会较为显著。

From the view of influence to the CPI，Because in the live pig CunLanLiang down to a level before，Pork prices dropped will present situation，It is therefore not to the CPI cause uplink risk。Around the Spring Festival is expected to start up pork prices will，But earlier this year because of pork prices higher still，So the price of pork in the first half of next year to uplink CPI growth in annulus comparing the effect of a more significant level，On the CPI growth rate of year-on-year influence in the second half of next year will become more significant。

　不影响我国当前货币政策 No effect on our country's current monetary policy

　　欧美等发达国家央行在货币政策制定和执行过程中主要着眼于剔除食品和能源后的“核心CPI”，这主要是因为食品与能源价格受供给冲击的影响较大，对货币政策敏感性不高，而且食品占居民消费篮子的比例也较低。从各发达国家“核心CPI”的走势而言，现在发达国家的主要矛盾是总需求放缓带来的通缩压力，近期粮食价格的走势对此没有实质影响，因此美国旱情不会改变今年各发达国家今年宽松的货币政策基调。

Europe and the United States and other developed countries in central bank monetary policy formulation and implementation process of the main focus on eliminate food and energy of the after“Core CPI”，This is mainly because food and energy prices are influences of supply shocks，On monetary policy sensitivity is not high，And food accounts for the proportion of residents' consumption basket is also lower。From the developed countries“Core CPI”For the trend of the，Now the principal contradiction in the developed countries is always slowing demand of deflation brings pressure，The recent rise in food prices this trend does not affect，So the United States will not change the drought this year developed countries this year the loose monetary policy fundamental key。

　　对新兴市场国家而言，粮食净出口国的经常项目收支将受益于粮价上涨，从而带来本币升值的压力，为货币政策的宽松提供了空间；粮食净进口国的经常项目收支将发生恶化，且国际粮食价格的上涨将直接传到至国内市场，从而使该国出现本币贬值和通胀加剧的状况，将限制货币政策宽松的空间。

Emerging market countries，Net exporter of grain of often project payments will benefit from rising food prices，Thus to bring the pressure on the appreciation of the currency，For the loose monetary policy provide the space；A net importer of food of the deterioration of the balance of payments will often project，And international food prices will directly to to domestic market，So that the country's currency devaluation and appear inflation situation，Will limit monetary policy loose space。

　　具体分析我国的状况，国际粮价上涨对国内物价水平的直接影响较为有限，间接影响（猪周期等）呈现一定的滞后性。如果滞后影响较大，将可能迫使央行货币政策作出相应调整。目前看，这种不确定性主要体现在明年，今年下半年央行货币政策整体宽松的状况不会受到美国旱情的影响。

Concrete analysis of the situation in China，The international food prices for domestic price level is relatively limited directly affected，Indirect effects（Pig period and so on）Presents certain hysteresis。If lag big effect，The central bank's monetary policy will be forced to make some adjustment。Now look at，This uncertainty mainly embodies in the next year，The second half of this year the central bank's monetary policy loose do not, in the whole the United States by the influence of the drought。