湘财证券研究所副所长 李晓彬

XiangCai securities LiXiaoBin deputy director of the institute

　　中国经济过去10多年来的强劲增长和A股市场涨幅几乎为零（不考虑上证指数设计上的一些缺陷，比如分红除息应该调整指数基期市值等）都是不争的事实，其中的原因也是多方面的，有人说是新股发得太多了，有人说是大小非解禁套现，有人说是经济增速回落，有人说是上市公司盈利水平不断下调，有人说是货币供应增速下来了，有人说是股指期货推出以后市场可以做空盈利等等。这些因素的确都或多或少地影响了市场，不过如果剔除一些经济的起落、盈利增速和流动性方面的起伏等周期性因素（所谓周期性因素通俗地说就是此一时彼一时的东西，比如去年这个时候CPI在6以上，通胀压力非常大；而今天CPI预期已在2以下，开始出现了通缩的声音），我们的看法是：经济增长模式的深刻调整才是A股市场长期低迷的根本原因。

China's economy in the past 10 years of strong growth and A share market or is almost zero（Don't consider the Shanghai index design some defects，Such as dividends ex-dividend should adjust the base index value, etc）Are indisputable facts，The reason is various，Some say that new hair too much，Some say that size not lift the ban to cash，Some say that economic growth dropped，Some say that listed companies' profit level constantly cut，Some say that the money supply growth down，Some say that stock index futures market can do empty out after profit and so on。These factors all have more or less influence on the market，But if eliminate some economic ups and downs、Earnings growth and liquidity of ups and downs, etc cyclical factors（The so-called cyclical factors popularly says is its what circumstances alter cases，Such as this time last year CPI in 6 above，Inflationary pressure is very big；And today CPI expected has set up a file in the 2 below，The deflation voice began to appear），Our view is：The pattern of economic growth deep adjustment is the A share market long-term the root cause of the downturn。

　　回顾过去10多年来中国经济高速增长的历史，不难看出贯穿其中的主要线索有两条：城市化和世界工厂。城市化高速发展带来的直接后果是房地产行业的持续繁荣，而房地产行业的繁荣在实体经济领域的反应就是钢铁、有色、化工、建材装饰、家电、汽车等相关行业的需求增长；在金融领域的反应就是中国M2的超速增长。2002年8月，我国M2余额大致在17万亿左右，而10年后的今天已经约为92万亿。我们做过一个有趣的统计，发现茅台(600519,股吧)酒和一线城市的房价和M2的增长大致同步。从这个意义上讲，CPI和资产价格确实是货币现象（一方面若干次说地产调控、一方面在大量印钞票，居民对抗印钞票的合理手段只能是买入不动产，调控结果可想而知）。M2高速增长带来了银行业资产急剧膨胀和账面利润高速增长，于是A股市场以周期股为主体的钢铁、煤炭、电力等“五朵金花”和金融、地产行业的联袂绽放（可以清晰地归纳出宝钢股份(600019,股吧)——三一重工(600031,股吧)——万科A——招商银行的投资线索），成为当时A股市场的核心资产。

Looking back at the past 10 years, China's rapid economic growth history，It is easy to see through one of the main clues have two：Urbanization and the workshop of the world。The rapid development of urbanization with a direct consequence is the continued prosperity of real estate industry，And the prosperity of the real estate industry in the entity economy response is to iron and steel、non-ferrous、chemical、Building decoration、Home appliance、Automobile and other related industry demand growth；In the financial field of reaction is the Chinese M2 growth of speeding。In August 2002，Our country M2 balance roughly at around 17 trillion，But ten years later today has about 92 trillion。We did an interesting statistics，Found maotai(600519,Shares it)Wine and a line city house prices and the growth of M2 approximately synchronous。In this sense，CPI and asset price is indeed a monetary phenomenon（On the one hand several times that real estate regulation、On the one hand in printing a lot of money，Residents against printing money reasonable means can only be buying real estate，Regulation can imagine as a result）。M2 high speed growth brought banking assets sharp expansion and paper profits growth，So the a-share market to cycle shares as the main body of the iron and steel、coal、Power, etc“Five gold flower”And financial、Real estate industry teamed up to blossom（Can clearly summarized the baosteel shares(600019,Shares it)- sany(600031,Shares it)- vanke A, China merchants bank investment clues），Become the a-share market core assets。

　　世界工厂主要指我国出口持续多年高增长。加入世贸组织后的若干年，特别是2005年后的三、四年中中国出口高速增长，总体保持20%以上的年增速。换言之，中国每年庞大的固定资产投资所形成的巨大产能由国外市场消化，因此，尽管我国每年的固定资产投资数据惊人，但中国在2010年以前却没有出现明显的产能过剩。

The world factory mainly refers to our export growth last for years。Several years after joining the wto，Especially after 2005 years of the three、Four years China's export growth，Overall keep more than 20% of the year growth。In other words，Every year China huge investment in fixed assets of the huge production capacity by the foreign market digestion，therefore，Although our country annual fixed asset investment data astonishing，But in China 2010 years ago but there is no obvious excess capacity。

　　然而，目前上述两个方面均出现了深刻调整。尽管中国的城市化还远远没有结束，但其进程将显著减慢，特别是东部沿海地区，因此，房地产的持续繁荣应已成为历史。另外，随着欧美经济体的去杠杆化的长期延续，中国出口在需求下降和超发货币、人口拐点带来的成本刚性上升所导致的竞争力下降的双重作用下将出现增速长期回落的局面。总结起来就是增长模式的深刻调整，即靠房地产和出口引导的增长模式未来将发生深刻变化，大致的发展方向应该是靠消费和新兴产业推动。

however，At present the above two aspects all appeared deep adjustment。Although China's urbanization is far from over，But the process will slow down significantly，Especially in eastern coastal areas，therefore，The continued prosperity of real estate shall be has already become the history。In addition，With Europe and the United States economy de-leveraging long-term continuance，China's export decline in demand and super hair money、Population inflection point bring cost rigid that are the result of rising falling competitiveness under the action of the double will appear long-term growth down the situation。Summarize up to growth model of deep adjustment，Namely by real estate and export-led growth pattern in the future will occur profound changes，General development direction should be by consumption and promote new industries。

　　老模式带来的产能过剩和银行的资产质量成为A股市场投资者挥之不去的担忧，于是我们看到了A股银行股估值比欧美还要低的现象，市场的反应无疑是深刻和极其聪明的。A股市场目前近70%的市值是由金融、煤炭有色、钢铁、机械、化工、建材等周期性行业构成，于是结论很显然：深刻的增长模式调整和大部分市值由周期性行业构成，成为了A股市场长期低迷的根本原因。10年前2100点对应50倍估值，目前10倍左右，10年不涨就是消化股票太贵的过程。

The old mode brings excess capacity and bank asset quality become a-share market investors lingering concerns，So we see the A shares the bank share valuations than Europe and the United States is still lower phenomenon，The market reaction is undoubtedly deep and very clever。A-share market at present nearly 70% of the market value is the financial、Coal non-ferrous、steel、mechanical、chemical、Building materials cyclical industry constitute，So the conclusion is obviously：Deep growth pattern adjustment and most of the market value by cyclical industry constitute，Become the a-share market for A long time the root cause of the downturn。Ten years ago 2100 point correspondence 50 times valuations，At present 10 times the left and right sides，Ten years is not a digestive stock too expensive process。

　　既然经济增长模式的深刻调整是确定趋势，A股市场市值结构的调整无疑是长期过程，要破解这一困境从中短期看是无解的。也就是说，破解A股市场中短期低迷格局是无解的。从长期看，我们对中国消费行业的长期增长持乐观态度，但对于新兴产业能否真正兴起仍然存在疑问。创新在目前的中国可谓是困难重重，山寨化是大多数新兴产业发展的现实状况，以创新为根本动力的新兴行业能否真正兴起实在是令人担忧。如果一定要在A股市场上做投资的话，建议在消费类行业中寻找好的股票，这是我们的基本策略。

Since the pattern of economic growth deep adjustment is determine the trend，A-share market value structure adjustment is undoubtedly long-term process，To break this dilemma is to short-term see no solution。That is，Cracked A share market short-term downturn pattern is no solution。In the long run，Our Chinese consumer industry's long-term growth optimists，But for emerging industry can truly rise still is in doubt。Innovation in the present China it is difficult，Localization is the stronghold most emerging industry development present situation，Taking innovation as the fundamental power of emerging industry can truly rise is really worrying。If it is to be in the a-share market do investment words，Suggestions in the consumer industry to look for a good stock，This is our basic strategy。