中国宏观经济正在走向通缩与中速增长区域，而中速增长形成的内在因素在于需求不足。在经济中速增长过程中一系列经济效益指标将对市场行情构成压制，这些经济效益指标包括：工业增加值可能在10%以内波动；上市公司利润增长可能长期在0上下波动。此外，在经济中速发展阶段我们对市场底部特征也必须重新认识：1、估值历史底部或经验数据的标杆性在经济转型的长期阶段中将失去参考价值；2、重新修订银行、地产等大金融板块的底部估值指系，这部分股票占比较大，在各指数中的权重也较高；3、要参考中小公司发展到相应规模时的平均相对估值，当下中小公司规模所显示的估值水平不具有平均意义等。

China's macro economy is to deflation and medium speed growth area，And medium speed growth form the internal factors in demand。In the economic medium speed growth process a series of economic benefits index to market constitute a pressing，These economic benefit indexes including：Industrial added value may be within 10% fluctuation；The listed company profit growth may long-term at 0 fluctuate。In addition，In the economic medium speed development stage of our market bottom characteristics must also to know：1、Valuations historical bottom or empirical data of benchmarking sex in the economic transformation of the long-term stage will lose reference value；2、Revision of the bank、Real estate and so on big financial plate bottom valuation refers to the system，This part of the stock accounts for more，In the index weights are higher in；3、Reference to small and medium-sized companies to corresponding scale development of average relative valuations，The small and medium-sized company size shows valuation levels do not have average significance and so on。

　　中国经济要走出中速增长阶段靠的是经济转型，而在中国经济转型未见到曙光之前，难见市场反转信号。当前新兴战略产业规划的实施对中国经济结构将开始发生影响：第一、十二五规划要求新兴战略产业占比达到15%以上，包括新兴战略产业群、与新兴产业关联产业群、与需求关联的传统产业、与经济转型相适应的现代、传统社会服务业等；第二、七大新兴战略产业规划顺利实施后将使我国GDP总规模持续提升，人均GDP可能达到5000美元以上，消费升级及内需增长的经济发展模式将出现雏形；第三、七大新兴产业规划实施后我国国际经济竞争力将会得到更大提升，经济强国的地位也会更为巩固，并影响世界经济结构与产业布局；第四、七大新兴产业规划实施将使我国经济区域结构演变更为平衡，分工专业化趋势凸显。在降低能耗、节能环保指标得到有效控制前提下，中国城市化进程将会被拉长，城市化率也将会得到提升，中国经济持续发展的主线——工业化、城市化得以延续；第五、七大新兴产业规划实施将使我国经济转型模式更为清晰，即以新兴产业发展为先导的产业率先发展起来，与内需相结合的传统产业振兴起来，现代服务业规模迅速壮大起来，节能环保产业作为支柱产业的地位建立起来等。

China's economy to get out of the medium speed growth stage by economic transformation，And in China's economic transformation not seen before dawn，You cannot see the market reversal signal。The current emerging strategic industry planning to the implementation of China's economic structure will begin to play on：The first、1025 planning requirements emerging strategic industry reached 15% above，Including the emerging strategic industry group、With the emerging industry association industry group、And demand associated traditional industries、With the transformation of the economic phase to adapt to the modern、The traditional social services, etc；The second、Seven big emerging strategic industry planning after the smooth implementation will make our country GDP total scale continued ascension，Per capita GDP may reach more than $5000，Consumer upgrade and domestic demand growth of economic development model of prototype will appear；The third、Seven big emerging industry planning in our country after the implementation of the international competitiveness of the economy will get more ascension，The status of economic power will also be more consolidation，And affect the world economic structure and industrial layout；The fourth、Seven big emerging industry planning implementation will make our country economy regional structure evolution more balance，The trend of specialization highlights。To reduce the energy consumption in、Energy conservation and environmental protection index effectively control premise，China's urbanization process will be stretched，Urbanization rate will get promoted，China's sustained economic development of the main line, industrialization、Urbanization to continue；The fifth、Seven big emerging industry planning implementation will make China's economic transformation model is more clear，As emerging industry development as the guide of the industry to take the lead to develop the up，Domestic demand and the combination of traditional industry rise up，Modern service industry is growing rapidly up the scale，Energy conservation and environmental protection industry as pillar industry status, such as set up。

　　结合技术与产业化对接的时间特征、日本经济转型的借鉴以及推算新兴产业规模占比等情况，2015年前新兴产业主导经济的雏形可能会出现，经济转型轮廓逐渐清晰，市场反转的必要、充分条件才算具备，也许市场底部就在2015年前的某个时间段出现。

Combined with technology and industrialization butt time characteristics、The Japanese economy transformation model and prediction of emerging industry scale than, etc，2015 years ago the emerging industry leading economic prototype may appear，The transformation of the economic outline gradually clear，Market reversal is necessary、Sufficient conditions have to be，Perhaps the market bottom in 2015 years ago in a period。