—2012年7月国际金融形势评论

- in July 2012, the international financial situation review

　　文/曹 彤 曲双石

Wen/cao song ever ShuangShi

　　编者提示：7月份，市场关于美国是否有必要采取第三次量化宽松（QE3）的争论达到白热化阶段。但如无大的变化，恐怕美国大选之前不会有重磅措施出台。欧洲经济持续低迷，欧洲央行与欧盟峰会推出诸多危机救助措施，但皆遭到德国等严守财政纪律国家的反对或阻挠。西班牙、意大利等国状况依然不佳，且希腊退出欧元区再次被提上议程。日本经济灾后重建的提振效果开始减退，债务问题依然严峻，同时面临较大的外部风险。中国出台多项惠港金融措施，巩固香港人民币离岸中心地位，促进人民币国际化迅速发展，但人民币升值预期逆转却为此蒙上阴影。

Editor hint：In July，Market about whether the United States it is necessary to take the third quantitative easing（QE3）Debate to white-hot stage。But if there is no big changes，I'm afraid the United States before the election will not have big measures。European sustained economic downturn，The European central bank and the European Union summit launched many crisis rescue measures，But all was Germany the fiscal discipline countries against or obstruct。Spain、Countries such as Italy conditions are not beautiful，And the Greek exit the euro zone was again on the agenda。The Japanese economy post-disaster reconstruction of boost effect began to remit，The debt problem is still severe，At the same time facing greater external risk。China issued a number of hui Hong Kong financial measures，Consolidate Hong Kong an offshore RMB centre position，To promote the rapid development of RMB internationalization，But the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to reverse this overshadowed。

　　美国：经济呈胶着状态 The United States：The conglutination state economy

　　7月份，美国劳动力市场委靡；消费依然疲弱无力；制造业陷入萎缩境地。但据以上三点判断美国经济重新步入衰退还为时尚早，因为房地产市场触底反弹的迹象日渐明显。美国商务部数据显示，5月份美国经季调并年化的新屋销量同比增长19.8%，环比增长7.6%，总量增至36.9万幢，超过4月份的34.3万幢与预期的34.8万幢，创两年多来最高水平。

In July，The U.S. labor market dejected；Consumption remains weak weak；Manufacturing was in atrophy situation。But according to the above three judgment the U.S. economy into recession again too early，Because the real estate market touch bottom rebound gradually obvious signs。The us department of commerce data display，May the season the adjustable and annualised new house sales year-on-year growth of 19.8%，Link growth of 7.6%，Total house increased to 369000，More than 343000 buildings in April 348000 buildings with the expected，And to the highest level in more than two years。

　　当前美国经济呈现较为明显的胶着状态，下半年向着何种方向演绎，取决于两大变量：一是欧债危机是否会通过金融、贸易途径波及美国；二是“财政悬崖”是否会影响市场信心。据美国国会预算办公室预计，本财年美国预算赤字将达1.17万亿美元，连续第四年超过1万亿美元。美国国债发行额和财政赤字额与国内生产总值（GDP）之比已经超过许多危机中的欧元区国家。而美国大选在即，两党又不太可能在债务上限和出台新税收政策方面有较大动作。美国财政状况如果引发市场悲观情绪，美国经济必将掉头向下。

The current U.S. economy presents obvious conglutination state，The second half of what direction to deduce，Depends on two big variable：One is the debt crisis will through the financial、Trade routes sweep the United States；The second is“Financial cliff”Whether it will affect the market confidence。According to the U.S. congressional budget office has estimated that，This year the budget deficit will reach to 1.17 trillion usd，For the fourth consecutive year more than 1 trillion dollars。The United States national debt circulation and fiscal deficit and gross domestic product（GDP）The ratio is more than the eurozone countries many crisis。But the United States as the election approaches，The two parties and not too may be in debt ceiling and produce a new tax policy has great action。The United States financial condition if cause market pessimism，The U.S. economy will turn down。

　　虽然联邦公开市场操作委员会（FOMC）已于6月21日决定将扭曲操作延长至年底，总规模达2670亿美元，但该举措显然并不解渴，市场关于是否有必要采取第三次量化宽松（QE3）的争论已达白热化阶段。客观来看，即使推出QE3，其功效也必定递减，除推高股市外，难以在创造就业和促进实体经济增长方面有突出作用。而且，在利率已接近于零的情况下，单凭货币政策难以挽救局面。

Although the federal open market operation committee（FOMC）Already on June 21 decision will be distorted operation extended to the end of the year，The total size of $267 billion，But the move obviously does not quench thirst，Market about whether it is necessary to take the third quantitative easing（QE3）Debate has reached a white-hot stage。Objective to see，Even if the launch QE3，Its efficacy must decline，In addition to push up the stock market，Difficult to in creating employment and promote the entity economic growth have prominent role。and，In interest rates close to zero cases，Single by monetary policy is difficult to save the day。

　　除新一轮QE政策外，美联储还可使用贴现窗口支持信贷、改变FOMC利率政策声明、下调目前0.25%的差额准备金率等，但具体采取何种措施还有待经济走势的进一步明朗，如无大的变化，恐怕美国大选之前不会有重磅措施出台。

In addition to a new round of QE outside policy，The fed also can use its discount window to support the credit、Change the FOMC interest rate policy statement、The difference between the current 0.25% cut reserve ratio, etc，But the specific what measures remains to be further clear economic trends，If no big changes，I'm afraid the United States before the election will not have big measures。

　　欧洲：依然不平静 The European：Still don't calm

　　欧洲经济持续低迷，欧洲央行再次举起降息大棒，但效果存疑。

European sustained economic downturn，The European central bank to cut interest rates again raise big stick，But the effect dubious。

　　7月份，欧洲经济持续低迷，欧元区主要经济体皆陷入衰退或正在滑向衰退。经济状况低迷加之通胀压力保持温和、通胀预期受到抑制，促使欧洲央行再次举起宽松大棒。7月5日，德拉吉宣布其上任后的第三次降息：将基准利率下调25个基点至0.75%，同时，将边际贷款利率与边际存款利率分别降至1.5%与0%。将边际存款利率降至零可鼓励银行间互相拆借，而非简单地每晚将资金存回欧洲央行。虽然新利率甫一实施，欧洲银行业在欧洲央行隔夜存款机制中存入的资金数额即由8085.16亿欧元降至3249.31亿欧元，为2011年12月21日以来最低，但银行只是将5000亿欧元现金从欧洲央行的存款工具中取出，并转入其在欧洲央行中的经常账户，并无迹象表明其利用此资金提供更多贷款或购买因主权债务危机而遭受重创的欧元区国家债券。

In July，European sustained economic downturn，The euro area is the main economies into recession or is sliding into recession。Economic conditions and low inflation pressure maintain moderate、Inflation expectations is restrained，The European central bank to lift again loose stick。On July 5,，Della auspicious announced the third rate cut after taking office：Cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%，At the same time，The marginal lending rates and marginal deposit interest rate fell to 1.5% and 0% respectively。The marginal deposit interest rates fall to zero can encourage Banks lend to each other，Rather than simply every night will save money back to the European central bank。Although the new interest rates just a implementation，The European banking in the European central bank overnight deposits mechanism in the amount of money that from 808.516 billion the euro fell to 324.931 billion euros，For 2011 years since December 21, the lowest，But the bank will cash only 500 billion euros from the European central bank savings out of the tool，And turn to its European central bank in the current account，There is no sign that the use of this fund to provide more loans or purchase for sovereign debt crisis and take a heavy toll of euro-area countries bonds。

　　此后，虽然欧洲央行高管多次暗示将进一步降息，且不排除将隔夜存款利率降至负值，但降息并不能解决市场对主权国家和银行业融资能力缺乏信心的问题。

Since then，Although the European central bank executives hints will cut rates further，And will not rule out overnight deposit interest rate fell to a negative value，But lower interest rates may not solve market for sovereign state and banking financing ability the problem of lack of confidence。

　　欧洲央行与欧盟峰会推出诸多危机救助措施，但皆遭到德国等严守财政纪律国家的反对或阻挠。因此，最终能否落实仍是悬念。

The European central bank and the European Union summit launched many crisis rescue measures，But all was Germany the fiscal discipline countries against or obstruct。therefore，Finally can implement is still suspense。

　　一是欧洲央行宣布放宽向该行申请贷款的合格抵押品限制，同时修改特定资产支持型证券适用要求，部分由汽车、个人或商业地产支持的资产将成为合格抵押品，信用评级限制由此前的A-降为BBB（-）。此举旨在进一步降低欧洲银行业，尤其是深陷债务危机的高负债国银行业的融资难度。但该行为遭到德国强烈反对，因其一贯反对任何进一步增加欧元系统资产负债表风险的行为。

One is the European central bank announced to the bank to apply for a loan to relax qualified security restrictions，At the same time modify specific abs applicable requirements，Part by car、Personal or commercial real estate in support of the assets will become eligible collateral，Credit rating limit thus before A - reduced to BBB（-）。The purpose of this action is to further reduce the European banking，Especially in the debt crisis of high debtor country banking financing difficulty。But this behavior was strongly against Germany，Because of its has always been opposed to any further increase euro system balance sheet risk behavior。

　　二是欧盟布鲁塞尔峰会取得三大成果：欧洲稳定机制（ESM）可直接向银行注资；ESM可通过购买重债国国债来压低其融资成本；推出1200亿欧元一揽子经济刺激计划。此三大成果有助于打破欧元区银行业与主权债务之间的恶性循环。

The second is the eu summit in Brussels has three big achievements：European stability mechanism（ESM）Can be directly to the bank transfers；ESM can ChongZhaiGuo by buying Treasury bonds to depress the financing cost；Out of 120 billion euros a package of economic stimulus plan。The three results help to break the eurozone banking and sovereign debt between the vicious cycle。

　　首先，根据欧盟决议，ESM绕过政府直接救助银行既不会增加政府负债，又不会附加改革条件，避免了政府主权信用恶化。同时欧盟援助资金还将放弃“优先求偿权”，即一旦出现风险，私人投资者和欧盟救助资金一样具有平等要求赔偿的权力。该举措将极大安抚市场信心，可有力缓解欧元区银行业危机，为在欧元区开创最终贷款人制度奠定坚实基础；其次，ESM可直接在一级和二级市场购买重债国国债以压低其融资成本，也有助于稳定受援国市场信心，避免资金外流引发银行危机。

First of all，According to the European Union resolution，ESM around government direct rescue Banks do not increase government liabilities，Without additional reform conditions，Avoid the government sovereign credit deterioration。At the same time the European Union aid funds will also give up“priority”，Namely once has the risk，Private investors and the European Union as relief funds have equal claim power。The move will greatly soothe market confidence，Can alleviate the eurozone powerful banking crisis，In the euro zone for a lender system finally lay a solid foundation；secondly，ESM can be directly in the primary and the secondary market to buy ChongZhaiGuo national debt to depress the financing cost，Also help stabilize market confidence recipient country，Avoid capital flight banking crises triggered。

　　然而，芬兰与荷兰表示，类似于ESM要在二级市场购买债券等决定，均需得到欧元区17个成员国一致同意，任何成员国反对都可构成一票否决。若向受困银行直接注资，其政府必须提供抵押担保。此外，德国宪法法院宣布将在9月12日就ESM和欧盟“财政契约”是否违宪作出初步裁决，意味着欧债危机防火墙至少还需两个月才能生效，这将加剧金融市场动荡，严重损害默克尔的政治影响力，给德国国内政局走向带来更多不确定性。

however，Finland and the Netherlands said，Similar to the ESM to in the secondary market to buy bonds, etc，All needs to get the euro area 17 countries agreed to，Any member may constitute a against all one ticket veto。If trapped bank to direct capital injection，The government must provide mortgage guarantee。In addition，Germany's constitutional court announced on September 12, is ESM and the European Union“Financial contract”Whether a preliminary ruling unconstitutional，Means that the debt crisis firewall at least still need two months to take effect，This will heighten financial market turbulence，Serious damage ms merkel's political influence，To German domestic political situation to bring more uncertainty。

　　“内”“外”两股力量希望缓和西班牙国内形势，但并未如意，意大利、塞浦路斯恐步西班牙后尘。

“inside”“outside”Two forces hope to defuse the Spanish domestic situation，But not with，Italy、Cyprus fear of step Spain footsteps。

　　7月份，“内”“外”两股力量希望缓和西班牙国内形势：“外”是欧元区财长会议发表声明，同意通过欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）和ESM为西班牙提供支持，并就规模为1000亿欧元的西班牙银行业救助方案细节达成协议，第一笔300亿欧元资金有望在7月底前拨付。同时，将西班牙修正过高赤字的截止日期推迟一年至2014年。根据欧盟委员会建议调整后的减赤方案，2012年至2014年，西班牙赤字占GDP的目标比例分别为6.3%、4.5%和2.8%；“内”是西班牙政府将实施新一轮财政紧缩措施，目标是在未来两年半内削减650亿欧元开支，其中，344亿欧元通过调整税率筹措，220亿欧元通过削减开支实现，其余86亿欧元通过征收一项新能源税补齐。

In July，“inside”“outside”Two forces hope to defuse the Spanish domestic situation：“outside”Is the euro zone finance ministers' meeting issued a statement，Agree through the European financial stabilization fund（EFSF）Provide support for Spain and ESM，And scale for 100 billion euros Spanish banking rescue plan details to reach an agreement，The first sum of 30 billion euros funds is expected to the end of July to the enterprises before。At the same time，Will Spain correction is too high deficit deadline postponed a year to 2014。According to the European commission suggested after the adjustment minus red scheme，From 2012 to 2014，The Spanish deficit target of GDP to 6.3%、4.5% and 2.8%；“inside”Is the Spanish government will implement a new round of austerity measures，Goal is two and a half years in the future in 65 billion euro spending cuts，the，34.4 billion euros by adjusting the tax rate raise，22 billion euros to realize through spending cuts，The rest of the 8.6 billion euros ($) through the collection of a new energy tax polishing。

　　然而，紧缩措施引发西班牙民众大规模骚乱，国际社会也并不相信其会安全走出困境，评级机构伊根-琼斯（Egan-Jones）指出，西班牙经济在2014年之前不会实现增长，西班牙银行业的坏账可能还包括与房地产市场恶化无关的其他资产，并将西班牙主权评级由CCC+降至CC+（垃圾级中的倒数第三级），导致西班牙IBEX 35指数重跌近6%，跌幅创一年来最高，10年期国债收益率突破7.3%。

however，Austerity measures trigger the Spanish people widespread unrest，The international community does not believe that it will be safe to go out of difficult position，Rating agencies Iraq root - Jones（Egan - Jones）Pointed out that，The Spanish economy in 2014 years ago won't achieve growth，The Spanish banking bad debt may also include real estate market has nothing to do with the deterioration of other assets，And the Spanish sovereign rating by the CCC + drop to CC +（Garbage level from the bottom third stage），Lead to Spain IBEX 35 index weight fell nearly 6%，The biggest decline in the highest for a year，The 10-year Treasury yield 7.3% breakthrough。

　　此外，市场对意大利成为继西班牙后又一个申请援助的大型欧元区国家“寄予厚望”。作为欧元区第三大经济体，意大利一直被市场广泛视为“大到不能倒”的国家。尽管意大利政府已采取财政紧缩和促进增长的政策措施，但该国依旧面临欧债危机扩散的冲击。

In addition，Market for Italy as the Spanish and an application aid large eurozone countries“expected”。As the euro area's third largest economy，Italy has been widely regarded as“To can't fall”country。Although the Italian government has taken austerity and promote growth of policy measures，But the country is still facing the debt crisis diffusion impact。

　　此外，由于持有希腊债务而蒙受巨额损失的银行需要进行资本重组，塞浦路斯或成为第五个请求欧盟援助的国家，不过其所需援助金额仅为100亿欧元。

In addition，With the help of a Greek debt and suffered huge losses bank need for capital reorganization，Cyprus or be the fifth request European Union aid country，But the required amount of aid only for 10 billion euros。

　　日本：难以从债务中脱身 Japan：Difficult to escape from debt

　　日本经济继续温和复苏，但灾后重建的提振效果开始减退，同时面临较大的外部风险。

The Japanese economy's moderate recovery to continue，But the post-disaster reconstruction of boost effect began to remit，At the same time facing greater external risk。

　　受地震灾后重建需求支撑，日本内需依旧坚挺，公共投资支出正在继续增加，企业固定资产投资正随公司利润状况同步增长。在消费信心好转的同时，个人支出也持续增长，并受到购车优惠政策助推。但日本经济同时面临以下两方面问题：一是数据显示日本灾后重建对经济带来的提振效果开始减退；二是欧债危机、中国经济放缓及美国经济复苏乏力等外部风险因素威胁日本国内经济。

Because after earthquake reconstruction needs support，Japan's domestic demand is still strong，Public investment spending are continuing to increase，The investment of enterprise fixed assets was with the company profit synchronous growth。In consumer confidence get better at the same time，Personal spending also sustained growth，By preferential policies and car booster。But the Japanese economy at the same time facing the following two aspects：One is the data showed that Japan's post-disaster reconstruction on economic brings boost effect began to remit；The second is the debt crisis、China's economic slowdown in us economic recovery and external risk factors, such as the lack of domestic economic threat to Japan。

　　日本债务问题依然严峻，但消费税增收法案导致日本政局动荡，执政党分裂。

Japan's debt problem is still severe，But consumption tax income act leads to the Japanese political unrest，Ruling party split。

　　面对庞大的债务压力，6月26日，日本国会众议院全体会议终于投票通过以消费税增税为核心的社保及税制整体改革相关法案。法案内容为在2014年4月和2015年10月分别将消费税率提至8%和10%，经参议院审议后该方案将于7月至8月间正式施行。该项计划被视为迈向抑制日本不断膨胀的公共债务的第一步措施。

In the face of the huge debt pressure，June 26,，Japan's lower house of parliament has plenary meeting finally voted to excise tax increases as the core of the social security system and the whole reform legislation。Bill for content in April 2014 and October 2015 respectively consumption tax rate to 8% and 10% extraction，Approved by the senate after deliberation the scheme will be closed from July to August and between formal。This program is seen as a move towards inhibition Japan expanding public debt first step。

　　目前，日本消费税率在发达国家中明显偏低，客观上有通过增税消除财政危机的空间。从长期看，税改是日本实现财政重建、遏制公共债务膨胀、稳定经济前景的必要措施。但从中近期看，在外部环境严峻、日元汇率走高、长期通缩背景下，增税无疑会加重民众负担，抑制消费，拉低经济增长率。

At present，Japan consumption rate in the developed countries obviously on the low side，Objective by raising taxes is to eliminate the space of the financial crisis。In the long run，ShuiGai is Japan realize financial reconstruction、Contain public debt expansion、Stable economic prospects necessary measures。But see from the recent，In the external environment severe、The Japanese yen exchange rate go high、Under the background of long-term deflation，Tax increases will no doubt increase the public burden，Inhibition consumption，Down economic growth。

　　同时，该法案令日本政坛矛盾激化，民主党前干事长小泽一郎、前首相鸠山由纪夫等人认为，“大增税”违背了民主党上台前对选民的承诺。表决时，包括小泽、鸠山在内的57名民主党众议员倒戈投下反对票。此后，小泽一郎及其追随者共50名国会议员退出民主党，组建以反对急于提高消费税和主张去核电化为主要政策的“国民生活第一党”，成为日本众议院第三大党与参议院第四大党。对于新党来说，阻挠增税法案成为其目前第一要务，因此，此法案能否通过参议院审议并最终实施仍存悬念。

At the same time，The bill to the Japanese politics further intensification of the disputes，The democratic race before ichiro ozawa、Former prime minister JiuShanYouJiFu etc people think，“Soar tax”Against the Democrats to go on stage the commitment of the voters。When voting，Including Mr Ozawa's、Hatoyama, 57 name by democratic Congressman cast non。Since then，Ichiro ozawa followers and a total of 50 members of parliament from the Democrats，Form against anxious to improve the consumption tax and claim to nuclear power into the main policy“The first party national life”，As Japan the house of representatives and the senate third party the fourth largest party。For the latter,，Obstruct tax increases bill into its current first priority，therefore，The bill through the senate can review and eventually implementation is still work to be done。

　　人民币国际化：出台多项惠港措施 RMB internationalization：Introduced a number of hui port measures

　　中央出台多项惠港金融措施，巩固香港人民币离岸中心地位，促进人民币国际化迅速发展，但人民币升值预期逆转却为此蒙上阴影。

The central issued a number of hui Hong Kong financial measures，Consolidate Hong Kong an offshore RMB centre position，To promote the rapid development of RMB internationalization，But the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to reverse this overshadowed。

　　7月份正值香港回归祖国15周年，中央推出39项加强内地与香港合作的政策措施，涵盖经贸、金融、教育、科技旅游、粤港合作等六个方面。其中，涉及深化内地与香港金融合作的政策多达14项，在支持香港发展成为离岸人民币业务中心，进一步促进人民币国际化方面有两点特别值得关注：

In July when the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland，The central launched 39 items of strengthening cooperation between mainland China and Hong Kong policy measures，Covers economic and trade、financial、education、Technology tourism、Hong Kong/guangdong co-operation and so on six aspects。the，Involved in deepening the mainland and Hong Kong financial cooperation policy as many as 14 items，In the support development of Hong Kong as offshore RMB business center，Further promote RMB internationalization has two special concern：

　　一是支持第三方利用香港办理人民币贸易投资结算。非香港居民或非香港注册的公司可在香港银行开户，并通过此户进行人民币兑换、结算或融资，即鼓励第三方来港进行人民币投资或贸易，此举将加快香港人民币资金池增长，推进香港人民币离岸中心建设。

One is to support the third party use Hong Kong for RMB settlement of trade and investment。The Hong Kong residents or non Hong Kong registered company can open an account in Hong Kong bank，And through this door for RMB、Settlement or financing，Which encourage the third party to the port of RMB investment or trade，The move will speed up Hong Kong RMB funds pool growth，Promote Hong Kong an offshore RMB centre construction。

　　二是双向跨境ETF正式推出。目前，证监会已核准了华夏基金恒生指数ETF及易方达基金恒生中国企业指数ETF，拟分别在深圳、上海证交所挂牌交易。香港证监会也已批准华夏基金香港有限公司的RQFII ETF产品申请。此举是内地证券市场和人民币走向国际化的重要一步，推开了内地证券市场和投资者走向国际市场的一扇大门，为进一步“走出去”扫除基本障碍。

The second is two-way cross-border ETF officially launched。At present，Mysterious nobility breath ssion has approved the fund of an ancient name for the hang seng index ETF and YiFangDa fund hang seng China enterprise index ETF，Quasi one in shenzhen、Shanghai stock exchange listed for trading。Hong Kong securities regulatory commission has approved fund of an ancient name for China Hong Kong co., LTD. RQFII ETF product application。The move is the mainland stock market and RMB internationalization important step，Push the mainland stock market and investors to go into the international market a gate，In order to further“Go out”Sweep basic obstacles。

　　此外，香港面临一个问题，即人民币升值预期逆转造成在港人民币存款减少。从去年12月开始香港人民币存款连降5个月。直到今年5月份，香港人民币存款才小幅微升0.3%至5539亿元人民币。伴随着人民币流动性下降和升值预期降温，香港市场点心债也不再受到追捧。内地大型国有企业纷纷转向美元债券市场，并明确表示对今年发行点心债的兴趣不大。不过，香港金管局已出台相关政策提升离岸市场人民币流动性。国务院批复支持深圳前海深港现代服务业合作区开发开放的有关政策，将带动香港人民币离岸市场发展进一步提速，并推动内地资本项目开放及人民币国际化。

In addition，Hong Kong faces a problem，That is caused by RMB appreciation reversal in port RMB deposit reduce。Since last December began to Hong Kong waters RMB deposit five months。Until this year in May，Hong Kong RMB deposit to small edge up 0.3% to 553.9 billion yuan RMB。With the yuan liquidity decline and the expected future appreciation cooling，The Hong Kong market snacks debt will no longer adore。The mainland large state-owned enterprises have turn to the dollar bond market，And clearly expressed interest in this issue snacks debt is not big。but，Hong Kong the hkma has already issued relevant policy ascension offshore RMB market liquidity。The state council ratified support shenzhen sea before deep port modern service industry development and open of the cooperation of relevant policies，Will drive the Hong Kong an offshore RMB market development speed further，And promote the mainland capital project open and RMB internationalization。

　　前海试验区试点的主要内容包括：加快推进深港银行跨境人民币贷款业务试点，利用香港低成本人民币资金支持前海开发开放和重点产业发展，争取更多前海地区和金融机构在香港发行人民币债券等。

Sea before test site pilot main contents including：Accelerate the deep port bank cross-border RMB loan business pilot，Using Hong Kong low cost RMB funds support sea before opening up and development of key industry development，Strive for more sea before region and financial institutions such as the issuance of RMB bonds in Hong Kong。

　　其中，人民币跨境贷款试点是最大亮点，如“允许前海探索拓宽境外人民币资金回流渠道，配合支持香港人民币离岸业务发展，构建跨境人民币业务创新试验区”，“支持设立在前海的银行机构发放境外项目人民币贷款；在CEPA框架下，积极研究香港银行机构对设立在前海的企业或项目发放人民币贷款”等。此举为香港5500多亿人民币存款找到新出路的同时，亦是为人民币资本项目开放探路。

the，Cross-border RMB loan pilot is the biggest bright spot，if“Allow sea before exploration expand overseas RMB capital return channel，Support Hong Kong an offshore RMB business development，Constructing cross-border RMB business innovation test site”，“Support set up in front of the sea banking institutions overseas project issued RMB loans；In the framework of CEPA，The positive study for the establishment of the Hong Kong banking institutions in the sea of enterprise or project issue renminbi loans”, etc。The move for Hong Kong 5500 RMB deposit found a new way out at the same time，Also is for RMB capital project open units。

　　对前海来说，其内地企业可从香港获得人民币贷款，而由于香港银行人民币贷款利率水平与国际挂钩，目前显著低于内地银行的贷款利率水平，因此，可降低内地企业融资成本。此外，内地企业借入人民币贷款不必如香港企业或外国企业般承担汇率风险。同时，前海企业到香港发行人民币债券，并将募集资金调回内地和境外的人民币FDI程序也将更加便利。

For to sea before，The mainland enterprises can get RMB loan from Hong Kong，And because the Hong Kong bank RMB loan interest rate level and international hook，At present significantly lower than the mainland bank loan interest rate level，therefore，Can reduce the mainland enterprise financing cost。In addition，Mainland companies borrowed RMB loan don't like Hong Kong enterprises or foreign enterprises, bear exchange rate risk。At the same time，Sea enterprise to Hong Kong before the issuance of RMB bonds，And will raise funds to the return of the mainland and overseas yuan FDI program will also be more convenient。

　　但是，金融市场是全国统一市场，局部性的地区改革难以真正独立成章。一旦前海试验区获得快速发展，市场主体将试图突破前海与内地其他地区之间资本管制的藩篱，来自市场的压力会敦促政府进一步开放资本项目。对此，政府有关部门需要未雨绸缪。

but，Financial market is the unified national market，Local area reform difficult to really independent from each other。Once the sea before test site for rapid development，The market main body will try to break through previous sea and other parts of the mainland between capital controls barriers，From the market pressure will urge the government further opening up of the capital projects。this，Government departments need to save for a rainy day。

　　（曹彤为中信银行(601998,股吧)副行长、中国人民大学国际货币研究所联席所长，曲双石为中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员、国务院发展研究中心国际技术经济研究所助理研究员）

（CaoTong for citic bank(601998,guba)Vice President、China people's university international monetary institute associate director，Song ShuangShi for people's university of China researcher at the institute of international currency、The state council development research center, international technology economic research institute assistant researcher）