大摩：“20年前，澳元还被当做南太平洋(601099,股吧)比索。如今已成为南太平洋瑞郎”

bigmorr：“Twenty years ago，Australian dollars was as south Pacific(601099,guba)peso。Now has become the south Pacific CHF”

　　理财周报见习记者 陈虹霖/上海报道

Financial weekly trainee reporter ChenHongLin/Shanghai reported

　　“没办法，平仓了。”

“Can't，Closing the。”

　　上海一家钢贸公司的前副总经理符力说。他是指他持有的在澳元上的一笔不小的空头头寸。

Shanghai a steel trading company's former deputy general manager FuLi said。He is referring to that he held on $in a lot of short position。

　　这批头寸，是他通过在美国的朋友，在芝加哥商业交易所(CME)的澳元兑美元期货上建立的，建仓时间在7月初。

This batch of position，He is through the friend in America，At the Chicago mercantile exchange(cme)The Australian dollars dollar futures established，Open a position time in early July。

　　因为，他有丰富的钢贸从业经验，他深知国内的钢铁产能过剩到了何种地步，他对铁矿石价格完全不抱希望。因此，俗称“大宗商品货币”的澳元没有理由不做空。而这，也算是一种风险对冲。

because，He has a lot of steel trade experience，He knows the domestic iron and steel excess capacity to what point，He for iron ore price not hope。therefore，Commonly known as“Commodity currency”The Australian dollars have no reason not to do empty。And this，Also be a risk hedge。

　　然而，他只猜对了铁矿石。

however，He only guess the iron ore。

　　现在，澳元的多头头寸已经创15周历史新高。5月份创历史纪录的空头仓位，竟并没有把澳元打到地板，相反，澳元实际上已经异常坚挺的走了2年时间。这也困扰了相当多一批的外汇交易者及有澳大利亚大宗交易的企业。

now，More than $15 weeks and position has a record high。May and historical records short positions，But didn't take the Australian dollars hit the floor，instead，Australian dollars, in fact, have very strong of walk 2 years time。It also plagued quite a lot of a lot of foreign exchange traders and Australia block trade enterprise。

　　要命的是，像宏源证券(000562,股吧)首席经济学家房四海一样，一批经济学家现在认为，应该继续做多澳元。

's，Like hongyuan securities(000562,guba)Chief economist room as all over the world，A number of economists now believe，Should continue to do more dollars。

　　澳元已经不是澳元。

Australian dollars is not Australian dollars。

　

　澳元与大宗之关连性已被打破 Australian dollars and bulk of relevance has been broken

　　“身边朋友都认为，这是比2008年更严重的时候。”符力说。

“Side of my friends think that，This is more serious than in 2008 when。”FuLi said。

　　近期中国公布的宏观数据显然已令市场颇为悲观，显示国内经济下行趋势未变，这也给原材料市场带来了较大压力。国内钢材价格持续下滑，已经创下近三年来的新低。

China's recent published macro data obviously already make market rather pessimistic，Display domestic economic downward trend has not changed，It also gives raw material market brought the big pressure。Domestic steel prices continue to decline，Has reached a new low of nearly three years。

　　而铁矿石价格也恰如其分的反映了全球经济的衰退。目前，进口铁矿石价格已跌破120美元/吨，而在铁矿石市场，110美元/吨曾被视作一个牢不可破的底线。现在看来，这一底线似乎正岌岌可危。

And iron ore prices also proper reflects the global economic recession。At present，The iron ore import price already fell below $120 / ton，And in iron ore market，110 dollars/tons has been regarded as an unbreakable bottom line。Now it seems，The bottom line seems to is at risk。

　　至于铜，它已经从最高点跌了13%，大熊市已经明确的到来了。环渤海动力煤综合平均价格已经从5月初近800元/吨，跌到600出头，跌幅近20%。

As for copper，It has high from fell 13%，The big bear market has clear arrived。Bohai sea power coal comprehensive average price from early may have nearly 800 yuan/ton，Fell to 600 s，Fell nearly 20%。

　　恰好，铁矿石、铜和动力煤，都是澳大利亚的主要出口大宗商品。现在，堆在澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港的动力煤越来越多。

just，Iron ore、Copper and power coal，Is Australia's main export commodities。now，In the Australian city of Newcastle pile to the port of power coal more and more。

　　而在2月1日，澳大利亚人得到一个并不快乐的消息，美国煤炭行业巨头博地能源公司(PeabodyEnergyco.,BTU)聘请了瑞银(UBSAG)作为顾问，要卖掉其位于澳大利亚的WilkieCreek煤矿。该煤矿动力煤年产量超过200万吨。出产的动力煤通过铁路运往昆士兰州首府布里斯班的港口，然后再出口至日本、台湾和韩国。

But on February 1,，Australian get a not happy news，The coal industry giant bo to energy companies(PeabodyEnergyco.,BTU)Hired ubs(UBSAG)As consultant，To sell its located in Australia's WilkieCreek coal mine。The coal mine power coal annual output of more than 2 million tons。The power of the coal produced by rail to Queensland capital, Brisbane port，And then exported to Japan、Taiwan and South Korea。

　　博地能源称，出售WilkieCreek煤矿的决定是在去年第四季度做出的。而那时，澳元恰好在测试它兑美元的0.95线挺不挺得住。

Bo to energy says，Sell WilkieCreek coal mine decision is made in the last year in the fourth quarter。And then，Australian dollars just in the test it against the dollar 0.95 line is not stand live。

　　同在彼时，积极在澳大利亚“狩猎”的兖州煤业(600188,股吧)，决定以7亿澳元的代价，收购澳大利亚大型煤企格罗斯特煤炭 (Gloucester Coal)，藉此在澳大利亚借壳上市。这相当于为后者的估值高达22亿澳元。为此，兖州煤业与银行签订了数量不为外人所知的外汇套期保值合约。

Presence at the，Active in Australia“hunting”Of yanzhou coal joint-stock company(600188,guba)，Decided to a $700 million price，An Australian large coal enterprises gloucestershire coal (Gloucester Coal)，By this in Australia borrow shell listed。This is equivalent to the valuation for the latter as high as $2.2 billion。therefore，Bank of yanzhou coal joint-stock company and signed quantity not known to outsiders foreign exchange hedging contracts。

　　回头看来，美国人又一次以先见之明卖在了山顶上。而兖州煤业的这笔生意到底如何，命运还没有给出答案。不过澳大利亚人坐不住了。

Back it seems，Americans once again to foreknowledge sell in the the top of the hill。And the business of yanzhou coal joint-stock company how，Fate also gave no answer。But Australian to sit still。

　　澳大利亚资源与能源部长弗格森（Martin Ferguson）周四声称该国的矿业繁荣期已经结束，而就在一天前，全球矿业巨头必和必拓宣布搁置两项规模合计至少400亿美元的扩张计划。越来越多的经济学家正号召澳大利亚让澳元加入货币战争。因为强势澳元严重脱离了这一基本面。

Australia's resources and energy minister sir alex ferguson（Martin Ferguson）Thursday said the country's mining boom has ended，And in a day earlier，The global mining giant BHP billiton announced that lay aside two scale aggregate of at least $40 billion expansion plans。More and more economists is calling for Australia let Australian dollars to join currency war。Because of the strong Australian dollars serious from the fundamentals。

　　实际上这一脱离已经很长时间了。

In fact this from has for a long time。

　　华尔街日报(博客,微博)援引一位前澳大利亚央行官员的观点表示，澳元与大宗商品并非有着千丝万缕的关系，事实上，在最近几个月中澳币汇率的走势已经和铁矿石、煤炭以及铜等大宗商品价格的走势相背离。

The Wall Street journal(blog,Micro bo)Quoted a former central bank officials said Australia's point of view，Australian dollars and commodities are not closely relationship，In fact，In recent months Australian dollar exchange rate movements have and iron ore、Coal and copper and other commodity prices trend phase deviation。

　　自6月初到现在，澳元兑美元已经上涨10%，但铁矿石价格却下跌到两年半来的低点。在过去两年里，澳元的走势与利差及商品价格之间的关联性似乎已经被打破。

Since early June to now，Australian dollars against the dollar has increased by 10%，But iron ore prices are down to two and a half years in the lows。In the past two years，Australian dollars trend and interest margin and the connection between the commodity prices seem to have been broken。

　　谁在做多澳元？ Who do more dollars？

　　Ric Deverell曾经是澳洲央行的一名官员，现担任瑞士信贷全球大宗商品研究主管，他近日表示：“这种现象并非不寻常，因为过去出现过这样的价格背离走势。”

Ric Deverell once Australia's central bank a officials，Now as a credit suisse global commodities research director，He has said：“This phenomenon is not unusual，Because the past appear such price deviation trend。”

　　中国银行(601988,股吧)一位不愿透露姓名的外汇分析师对此感到既失落又彷徨：“澳元这样的走势，很难说后面不会创新高，这只能说，全球资本的避险动能太强大了，反过来说，资本以这种方式来表达对世界经济的巨大担忧。”

The bank of China(601988,guba)One does not wish to disclose the name of the foreign exchange analysts was already lost and fluctuating：“Australian dollars such trend，It's hard to say back not a new high，This can only say，Global capital hedge kinetic energy is too strong，conversely，Capital in this way to express the great concern for the world economy。”

　　摩根士丹利的Gerard Minack和Katie Hill则有更为精彩的观点：

Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack and Katie Hill have more wonderful views：

　　“世界变化是如此之快。20年前，澳元还被当做南太平洋比索。如今已成为南太平洋瑞郎，是全球公认的避险天堂。”

“The world is changing so fast。Twenty years ago，Australian dollars was as south Pacific peso。Now has become the south Pacific CHF，Is the world recognized hedge paradise。”

　　“在过去两年里，澳元的走势与利差及商品价格之间的关联性似乎已经被打破。这基本上与资金流入澳洲国债（CGS）的期间对应。并不是说澳元不受利差或商品价格影响，而是说，如果没有澳洲国债强劲的海外需求，那么澳元对美元将比现在的水平低10-15美分。对澳债的需求是外国央行对外汇储备分散化举措的鲜明信号。”

“In the past two years，Australian dollars trend and interest margin and the connection between the commodity prices seem to have been broken。This basically and capital flows into the Australian national debt（CGS）During the corresponding。Is not to say that the Australian dollars from interest margin or commodity price effect，But said，If there is no Australia national debt strong overseas demand，So Australian dollars against the us dollar would now be more low level 10-15 cents。To Macao debt demand is foreign central Banks to foreign exchange reserve decentralization move bright signal。”

　　据Minack，截止至2012年3月的一年时间里，海外投资者购买了620亿澳元的澳洲国债（CGS），占到澳大利亚GDP的4.3%。而同期的澳洲经常账户赤字占GDP2.6%。离岸投资者如今持有77%的澳洲国债（CGS）。

According to Minack，Until March 2012 year，Overseas investors bought a $62 billion Australian national debt（CGS），Australia accounted for 4.3% of GDP。Over the same period, the Australian current account deficit of GDP2.6 %。Offshore investors now holds 77% of the Australian national debt（CGS）。

　　一家外资对冲基金的基金经理不久前，刚从澳大利亚归国，他的结论是，澳元现在可能是国际资本为数不多的选择，“如果美国的债务悬崖解决不了，澳元可能会成为凤毛麟角的避险货币。现在澳大利亚的国债还是AAA评级，其他经济体的风险都很大，包括德国中国这些。”

A foreign hedge fund managers not long ago，Just returned from Australia，His conclusion is，Australian dollars now may be international capital a few choice，“If America's debt cliff not solve，Australian dollars may be a rare breed of currency hedge。Now Australia's national debt or AAA rating，Other economies are of great risk，Including Germany China these。”

　　

兖州煤业的澳元帐 Of yanzhou coal joint-stock company $account

　　据2009年媒体统计，持有澳元的上市公司约30家，多为资源类上市公司，主要集中在钢铁、有色金属、建筑材料等行业，其中，中国中铁(601390,股吧)、中国铁建(601186,股吧)持有额过亿澳元，中国铝业(601600,股吧)、宝钢股份(600019,股吧)、马钢股份(600808,股吧)、唐钢股份、兖州煤业、中国中冶(601618,股吧)等均有大额澳元资产。

According to 2009 statistics of media，Hold a listed company of about 30，More for resources companies，Mainly concentrated in the iron and steel、Non-ferrous metal、Building materials, and other industries，the，China railway group(601390,guba)、The China railway construction(601186,guba)Holding over hundred million dollars，China aluminum(601600,guba)、Baosteel shares(600019,guba)、Masteel shares(600808,guba)、Tanggang shares、Yanzhou coal joint-stock company、China MCC(601618,guba)All have big Australian dollars asset。

　　经过2008年的暴跌冲击，中国企业的外汇头寸风险管理已明显节制。经理财周报查询，中国中铁和中国铁建基本应在2009年之后趁反弹平掉了其澳元仓位，当然，亦在客观上错过了本轮澳元涨势。

After 2008 years of slump impact，Chinese enterprises' foreign exchange position risk management has obvious temperance。The financial weekly query，China railway group and China railway construction basic should be in 2009 years later while rebound flat off the Australian dollars positions，Of course，Also objectively missed the epicycle Australian dollars rise。

　　现在介入澳元最深的公众企业，从公开信息看，当属兖州煤业。

Now involved in Australian dollars deepest public enterprise，See from public information，When of yanzhou coal joint-stock company。

　　2011年底，兖州煤业以每股3.2澳元现金收购澳大利亚大型煤企格罗斯特煤炭(Gloucester Coal)，涉资7亿澳元（约55亿港元)，相当于后者估值为22亿澳元，较市场估计为高；兖煤同时透过换股形式与格罗斯特合并，藉以向后者借壳在澳大利亚上市。此事震惊资本界。

By the end of 2011，Yanzhou coal joint-stock company to a $3.2 ($per share cash acquisition of Australia large coal enterprises gloucestershire coal(Gloucester Coal)，Wade endowment $700 million（About hk $5.5 billion)，Equivalent to the latter valuations for 2.2 billion dollars，A market estimates for high；At the same time could coal through change form and the gloucestershire merger，Through to the latter in Australia by shell listed。It shocked capital boundary。

　　如此一来，兖州煤业面临着双币种的销售结算体系。对澳元外汇风险的管理，成为重要的课题。为此，兖州煤业与银行签订了数量不为外人所知的外汇套期保值合约。

so，Yanzhou coal joint-stock company faced with double currency sales settlement system。For a foreign exchange risk management，Become an important problem。therefore，Bank of yanzhou coal joint-stock company and signed quantity not known to outsiders foreign exchange hedging contracts。

　　通过这些合约，2011年兖州煤业产生账面汇兑收益4.025亿元。而查兖州煤业2011年年报，其合约头寸，已经从年初的2.4亿元，下降到1.05亿元。

Through these contracts，2011 years of yanzhou coal joint-stock company produce book exchange income 402.5 million yuan。And check yanzhou coal joint-stock company annual reports in 2011，The contract positions，Already from 240 million yuan a year earlier,，Descend to 105 million yuan。

　　“根据这个分析，兖州煤业是平掉了部分合约，而且去年澳元的走势，应该符合兖州煤业押注的方向，看起来管理得不错。至于后面如何，很难判断，因为没人知道这些合约的具体细节。澳元后面大起大落，冲击会非常大，兖州煤业对冲风险的难度和风险都会非常之大。”国内一家券商衍生品部人士分析说。

“According to the analysis，Yanzhou coal joint-stock company is flat out part of the contract，And last year on the movements of the Australian dollars，Should accord with the direction of yanzhou coal joint-stock company bet，Look management well。As for how behind，It's hard to judge，Because no one know the details of the contract。Behind a dramatic ups and downs，Impact will be very big，The difficulty of yanzhou coal joint-stock company hedge risk and risk will be very large。”A domestic securities trader derivatives department analysts said。

　　“最大的风险还是在于，兖州煤业花那么大代价拿下来的煤矿资产会带来什么后果。如果澳元大幅升值，贸易会受很大影响。如果澳元有天大幅贬值，那就是全球大衰退，煤炭价格也像工业大宗一样进入长期熊市，那这笔交易就可能是很失败的。”

“The biggest risk is still，Yanzhou coal spend so big price off coal assets will bring what result。If a big revaluation，Trade will suffer。If the Australian dollars one day the substantial depreciation，That is great global recession，As the price of coal industry and the large long bear market，That the deal is likely to be a very failure。”