中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长何帆。 The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at he deputy director。

　　核心观点

Core ideas

　　在没有发烧时开始预防，可能就不用吃药了，非得等温度计显示出高烧，才去吃药。

In no fever at the start of prevention，May need not take medicine，Have to etc thermometer shows a high fever，To take medicine。

　　我们一只手拿药，一只手拿温度计，吃药后立即测温度，没有降下去就再吃点，不达目的誓不罢休，忘了药效的发挥需要一个过程。

We may or may not prescribe medicine for a hand，On one hand, thermometer，Take the medicine immediately after measuring temperature，Not fall go eat again，Results-driven，Forget pharmacodynamic play need a process。

　　不会重蹈经济刺激覆辙 Economic stimulus won't repeat them

　　新京报：你对今年下半年的中国经济走势有何判断？

The Beijing news：For you in the second half of this year China's economic trends have any judgment？

　　何帆：上半年经济数据出来后大家都比较悲观。但我相对乐观些。

he：Economic data in the first half after coming out, you are more pessimistic。But I relatively optimistic some。

　　中国是一个靠需求拉动的经济体，经济增长主要靠净出口、消费和投资三驾马车。此前大家预计净出口对中国经济的拉低作用会非常明显，但现在看来并不像想象中那么坏。

China is a demand on the economy，Economic growth mainly depending on the net export、Consumption and investment troika。After everyone expected net exports to China's economic down effect will be very obvious，But now it seems not as imagination in so bad。

　　消费可能也比预期中的要好一些。从数据来看，去年开始社会消费品零售总额连续几个月出现下滑。下滑速度最快的是日用品、文体用品和服装等。但现在很多年轻人不在商场买东西，而是网购。网购的增速很快，但没有反映在统计局的数据中。同时，农村消费有增长的趋势，比如对服务的消费等。

Consumption may also the better than expected。From the data to see，Last year the social total retail sales of consumer goods for months dropped。The fastest decline is daily necessities、Sports supplies and clothing, etc。But now many young people not in shopping，But the net。The rate of growth of the net soon，But not reflected in the bureau of statistics data。At the same time，Rural consumption has a growing trend，Such as the service consumption, etc。

　　新京报：未来的经济发展主要靠什么？

The Beijing news：The future of economic development, mainly by??????？

　　何帆：决定今年中国经济走势的还是投资。今年投资有所下降，我认为主要是宏观调控的原因。

he：Decided this year China economic trends or investment。This year investment declined，I think the main is the cause of the macroeconomic regulation and control。

　　去年下半年基础设施投资开始下降，今年年初房地产投资开始下降，这两项投资都与宏观调控有关。从某种意义上讲，我们是在自己折腾自己。

The second half of last year infrastructure investment began to fall，At the beginning of this year, real estate investment began to fall，The two investment and the macroeconomic regulation and control about。In a sense，We are in their own toss about yourself。

　　2008年经济危机中的4万亿刺激政策太猛，出现各种问题后，政策又收得太猛，铁路停建，发改委停批新项目。

In 2008 the economic crisis of 4 trillion stimulus policy too fierce，After various problems，Policy and accept too fierce，Railway stopped，Development and reform commission (NDRC) stop batch of new projects。

　　现在经济下滑又慌了，开始放松政策。调控的节奏总是把握不准。

Now economic downturn and panic，Began to relax the policy。The rhythm of the regulation always are unsure。

　　如果是调控的节奏没有把握好，我觉得无非就是把节奏调整一下。现在国家的财政状况良好，投资的机会也很多。比如铁路、水利工程以及科技、环保等“十二五”规划中列出的新兴战略型产业，这些都可以去投资。

If is the rhythm of the regulation not hold good，I think it is to adjust the rhythm。Now the country's financial situation is good，There are many investment opportunities。Such as railway、Water conservancy engineering and science and technology、Environmental protection“1025”Planning listed in the emerging strategic industry，All of these can go to investment。

　　新京报：很多人担心加大投资会重蹈过去4万亿刺激政策的覆辙。

The Beijing news：Many people worry that increase investment will repeat the past 4 trillion stimulus policy mistakes。

　　何帆：2008年刺激力度确实太大，这次要注意把握好力度和结构。如果再次加班加点审批项目，可能还出问题。大家的担心也是有道理的。

he：2008 stimulus efforts really is too big，The attention should be paid to the strength and structure。If the examination and approval work overtime again，May also a problem。Everyone's worry is reasonable。

　　但现在跟2008年有所不同，有很多项目是早就决定要建的。比如铁路，虽然发生了事故和腐败事件，但在所有的陆地运输成本中，铁路运输的成本最低。中国这么大的国家，又以制造业为主，自然是要修铁路的。

But now with 2008 different，There are a lot of project is decided early on to the building。Such as railway，Although had an accident and corruption，But in all the land transport costs，Railway transportation cost minimum。China is so big country，And specializing in manufacture，Nature is to fix the railways。

　　修铁路应由中央财政出钱，或者发行铁路建设债券，然后由中央财政偿还。

Should a railway by the central fiscal expense，Or issue railway construction bonds，Then by the central government to repay。

　　投资基础设施短期内不会带来大量的产能过剩。基础设施至少在短期内风险是可控的，以后都会用到，不会变成不良资产。比如养老院我们太缺了。

Investing in infrastructure in the short term will not bring a lot of excess capacity。Infrastructure at least in the short term risk is controllable，Later can use，Won't become bad assets。For example a nursing home we are too short。

　　短期来看，中国经济只能靠投资来稳定，但长期就悲观了，不可能永远依靠基础设施投资。长期来看，消费的空间非常大。

Short term，China's economy can only rely on investments to stability，But long-term is a pessimist，Not always rely on infrastructure investment。In the long term，Consumption of space is very large。

　　减税比补贴更好 Better than tax cuts subsidies

　　新京报：你认为一些投资比如修建铁路可由中央财政买单，但官方多次表态要调动和鼓励民间投资。

The Beijing news：Do you think some investment such as building railway by the central government to pay，But officials said many times to mobilize and encourage private investment。

　　何帆：中央财政应该发挥更积极的作用，同时创造切实的条件让民营资本参与进来。

he：The central government should play a more active role，At the same time create practical conditions so that private capital involved。

　　引导和调动民间投资要出台具体可行的措施。已经忽悠人家好几次了，民营资本进入煤炭领域，小煤窑收了；进入钢铁领域，就整合并关闭了部分钢铁厂。

Guide and arouse folk investment should publish concrete feasible measures。Have flicker family several times，Private capital into the coal field，Small coal pit accepted；Into the field of iron and steel，Is integration and shut down some steel works。

　　要调动民间投资首先必须让利，把利润让出来，同时要保护民营企业产权。实际上，关键还是靠政府投资。每年那么多税收，拿出来用吧。

To arouse folk investment must first the profits，The profits to let out，At the same time, to protect the private property rights of enterprises。In fact，The key is to depend on the government investment。So many tax every year，Out with it。

　　新京报：从去年开始减税的呼声很高，且不少人士认为财政支出的结构不合理，你认为在政府主导投资的情况下，还有减税的空间吗？

The Beijing news：Since last year the voice of high tax cuts，And a lot of people think that the fiscal expenditure structure is not reasonable，Do you think the government leading investment circumstances，And tax space？

　　何帆：减税还是有一定空间的。结构性减税并不意味着税收收入的减少，在一定条件下采取减税措施，会激发企业活力，税收总收入有可能增加，当然中国不一定会出现这种情况。

he：Tax cuts or have a certain space。Structural tax reduction does not mean that tax revenue reduction，In some conditions, adopting tax cuts，Can stimulate enterprise vitality，Tax revenues may increase，Of course China will not necessarily appear this kind of circumstance。

　　我认为部分财政补贴可以改为减税，减税比补贴更好，补贴需要论证、执行，中间会涉及很多成本。比如农业补贴10元，最后有3元进入农民口袋就很不错了，但取消农业税效果就很明显，执行成本非常低，农民获益最大。

I think part of the financial subsidies can change it to a tax cut，Better than tax cuts subsidies，Subsidies to be demonstrated、execution，Intermediate will involve a lot of cost。Such as agricultural subsidies 10 yuan，Finally, there are 3 yuan into farmers' pockets is very good，But the abolition of agricultural tariffs effect is very obvious，Execution cost is very low，The biggest benefit farmers。

　　如果要减轻企业负担，不需要采用补贴，直接取消某项税收的效果最好，未来减税还是应该主要针对中小企业。

If you want to reduce the burden on enterprises，Without the use of subsidies，Direct cancel a tax the best effect，The future tax cuts should be aimed at small and medium-sized enterprise。

　　不能边量体温边吃药 Can't edge temperature side to take medicine

　　新京报：你提到宏观调控的节奏总是把握不好。能解释一下吗？

The Beijing news：You mentioned the macroeconomic regulation and control rhythm always grasp the bad。Can you explain it？

　　何帆：对，老踩不准点。2008年的那次金融危机，其实在2007年就已经看得很清楚了，如果在2007年推出刺激政策，就不用4万亿那么大的力度了。后来政策收的时候又收得太紧。

he：to，Old step no point。2008 years of the financial crisis，In fact in 2007 already see very clearly，If launched in 2007 stimulus policy，Don't have 4 trillion so big of the strength。Later when the policy and accept it too tightly。

　　经济下行的趋势在去年下半年的时候就比较明显了，但去年下半年的政策还是紧缩的，例如，存款准备金率每月上调。

Economic downward trend in the second half of last year when it is obvious，But the second half of last year the policy or tight，For example，The deposit reserve rate raised a month。

　　话说回来，因为没有提前加息，货币政策在当时也不得不那么做。如果能够早加息，把通货膨胀控制下来，在经济下行时，就不需要频繁上调存款准备金率了，甚至可以把存准降下来一点，投资提上去一些。一个错误带来了另一个错误。

Words come back，Because there is no interest rates in advance，Monetary policy at that time also have to do that。If interest rates to be early，The control of inflation down，In the economic when descending，Do not need to frequent the raise deposit reserve rate，Can even save quasi drop down a bit，Investment lift up some。A mistake brought another mistake。

　　通胀显现了，还在犹豫是否加息，等到加息的时候已经很晚了。

Inflation appeared，Still hesitating whether raise interest rates，Wait until the interest rates when it was already very late。

　　在没有发烧时开始预防，可能就不用吃药了，非得等温度计显示出高烧，才去吃药。

In no fever at the start of prevention，May need not take medicine，Have to etc thermometer shows a high fever，To take medicine。

　　我们一只手拿药，一只手拿温度计，吃药后立即测温度，没有降下去就再吃点，不达目的誓不罢休，忘了药效的发挥需要一个过程。

We may or may not prescribe medicine for a hand，On one hand, thermometer，Take the medicine immediately after measuring temperature，Not fall go eat again，Results-driven，Forget pharmacodynamic play need a process。

　　“青年经济学人”评选系列报道之三 “Youth the economist intelligence unit”The third series of reports

　　何帆：胸中无剑 he：No sword in

　　“我研究的领域是中国宏观经济和国际经济形势，人民币汇率和资本账户开放等问题，我希望我们的采访能够只围绕我研究的领域。”在接受采访前何帆会直接向记者提出建议。他说，他目前的研究兴趣正在转向国际金融史和地缘政治。

“I of the field of study is China's macro economy and international economic situation，The RMB exchange rate and capital account liberalization problems，I hope our interview can only around me of the field of study。”In an interview to the reporter before he will direct Suggestions。He said，His current research interests are turning to the international JinRongShi and geopolitics。

　　在武侠故事中获得领悟 In the martial arts the story get understanding

　　何帆，1971年出生于河南省荥阳县。1996年和2000年毕业于中国社会科学院研究生院，分别获得经济学硕士和博士学位。现任中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长，研究员，博士生导师。

he，Born in 1971 in henan province xingyang county。In 1996 and 2000, graduated from China academy of social sciences graduate school，Won respectively economics master and doctoral degree。The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at deputy director，The researchers，Doctoral tutor。

　　他同时在多家社会机构和政府部门兼职，如中国人民银行汇率专家组成员、财政部国际司顾问、北京大学兼职教授等。

He also in several social institutions and government departments part-time，If the people's bank of China group members exchange rate、The ministry of finance international department consultant、Beijing university part-time professors, etc。

　　刚过不惑之年的何帆在其领域内成果丰硕，有《为市场经济立宪：当代中国财政问题报告》等三本著作，同时著有《出门散步的经济学》《不确定的年代》等个人文集，而2006年出版的一本个人文集被他命名为《胸中无剑》，这也是何帆博客的名字。

Just after he BuHuoZhiNian of in the field have got great achievements，have《For market economy constitutionalism：Contemporary China's finance problem reports》Three the work，At the same time have the《Go out for a walk of economics》《Uncertain s》And personal corpus，And in 2006 a book published personal essays he named《No sword in》，This is he blog name。

　　这个名字来自于金庸的武侠小说《倚天屠龙记》中的一个故事，在这个故事里，张三丰向张无忌传授太极剑时，同时传递了“忘记”的感悟。

The name comes from the middlemost martial arts novels《The Heaven Sword and the Dragon Sabre》In a story，In the story，Zhang sanfeng to zhang mowgli teach when taiji sword，At the same time transfer the“forget”thoughts。

　　何帆说他很喜欢金庸的小说，在金庸的小说中能够寻找人生的真理，胸中无剑就是当时的感悟。

He said he was like jin yong's novels，In jin yong's novels can look for the truth of the life，In the chest without the sword is the feeling。

　　“做学问如果太在意就会变成一个书呆子，太想赚钱就会变成守财奴。但如果能够放松些，不把它当成一个目标，而是觉得做这种事情挺好玩儿，反而可能做得更好。人生有很多东西，忘记是更好的。”何帆说。

“A scholar if too care about will become a bookworm，Too want to make money will become a miser。But if we can relax，Don't take it as a target，But think to do this kind of thing to play good，It could do better。Life has a lot of things，Forget is better。”Said he。

　　在余永定身上学到“信心” Learn the issue“confidence”

　　在接受采访的一个小时里，何帆始终面带微笑，认真回答着每个问题，保持着适度的音量和缓慢的节奏。

In an interview in an hour，He always smiling，Serious answer each question，Keep the moderate volume and slow rhythm。

　　在何帆过去的研究中，最看重的是关于人民币汇率改革及相关问题的研究。他说，因为这是一个团队的研究，通过这个题目的跟踪研究，所里的一批年轻学者如姚枝仲、张斌、张明、徐奇渊等，都脱颖而出。“他们都曾和我合作过，我为他们的成长感到非常骄傲。”

He in the research in the past，The most important is about RMB exchange rate reform and related research。He said，Because this is a team of research，Through this topic tracking study，Place a batch of young scholars such as YaoZhi secondary、Mr. Zhang bin、Zhang Ming、XuJiYuan, etc，All stand out。“They have worked with me，For them I feel very proud to grow。”

　　何帆坦言对自己影响最大的经济学家是社科院世经政所前所长余永定教授。“从他身上，我学到的不仅是宏观经济学，还有一种信心。他让我知道不管社会堕落到何种程度，你仍然可以坚持自己的道德水准，不降低要求。”

He said to oneself have the biggest impact on economists is that the academy by government before the issue of professor。“From him，I have learned not only macroeconomics，Still have a kind of confidence。He let me know whether social descend to what extent，You can still adhere to their own moral standards，Don't reduce the requirement。”

　　何帆说，并不把自己当做一个在理论方面有高深造诣的学者，他只是一个关注现实问题的政策研究者，同时是一个科普作者。而以后会把更多的时间用来做个人感兴趣的问题的学习和研究。

Said he，Do not see themselves as a at the aspect of theory has profound attainments of scholars，He is just a focus on practical problems, the researchers policy，At the same time is a popular science the author。And will put more time to do personal interested in learning and research。

　　新京报：有人认为宏观调控是人为制造经济周期，你怎么看？

The Beijing news：Some people think that the macroeconomic regulation and control is artificial manufacturing economic cycle，What do you think of？

　　何帆：这倒不是，经济周期受外界因素影响，也有经济本身的原因。在经济全球化背景下，本轮经济周期主要受全球金融危机的影响。在应对危机的过程中，政策总的方向基本是正确的，但节奏把握得不是很准。

he：This is not，Economic cycle by external factors，Also has the reason of itself of the economy。Under the background of economic globalization，This round of economic cycle is mainly affected by the influence of the global financial crisis。In the process of coping with crisis，The basic policy direction is correct，But to grasp the rhythm is very accurate。

　　要提高决策水平，在统计方面需要有所改善，统计质量总体来说还不行，这会影响到决策。

To improve the level of decision-making，In the statistical aspects need to improve，Statistical quality overall not yet，It will affect the decision。

　　新京报：目前的统计数字不够准确？

The Beijing news：The current statistics was not accurate enough？

　　何帆：还不完全是不准确的问题。统计数字确实不够准确，除此之外，目前的统计里面，很多重要的指标是没有的。比如就业的统计数字就没有国外完善。

he：Is still not completely is not accurate problem。Statistics really was not accurate enough，In addition，The current statistical inside，A lot of important index is no。Such as employment statistics is no foreign perfect。

　　决策最根本的指标就是看就业，从整个经济循环来看，有消费才能有生产，有收入才能有消费，所以就业是起点。因此，国外的统计往往很看重就业这个指标，而我们在这方面就比较弱。

Decision making the most fundamental index is watching employment，From the entire economic cycle to see，A consumer to production，Have income to have consumption，So the employment is the starting point。therefore，Foreign statistics are often very value employment this index，While we are in this respect is weak。

　　另外对风险的预警，我们准备不够。比如，金融危机的影响程度有多大，我们现在更多的是依赖做调研等方式，做调研也是有必要的，但出了问题才去做调研，已经晚了。

In addition, the risk early warning，We are prepared to not enough。For example，The influence degree of the financial crisis have how old，We are now more is dependent on doing research, etc，Doing research is necessary，But the problem to do research，Already late。

　　市场经济不代表都能自由买卖 The market economy is not representative can free selling and buying

　　新京报：很多人担忧政策放松会带来房地产市场的反弹。

The Beijing news：Many people worry policy relaxation will bring the real estate market rebound。

　　何帆：我们以前是把房地产当成支柱产业，希望以此拉动经济增长，实行所谓的市场化原则，现在发现这样做并不正确。

he：We used to be the real estate as a pillar industry，Hope to stimulate economic growth，The so-called market-oriented principle，Now find it is not correct。

　　市场经济也不是所有的东西都能当成商品自由买卖，比如劳动力、土地和房子。

Market economy is not everything can as goods free selling and buying，Such as labor、Land and house。

　　现在的思路是对的，住房先是一个社会政策，然后才是产业政策，所以开始建保障性住房。

Now thinking is right，Housing first a social policy，Then industrial policy，So they began to build affordable housing。

　　新京报：从长期发展来看，中国经济主要会面临哪些问题？

The Beijing news：From the long-term perspective，China's economy will face the main what problem？

　　何帆：长期来看问题很多，人口老龄化日益严重、劳动力成本不断上涨，以及服务业落后可能带来的就业形势严峻等问题。

he：In the long term of the many problems，An aging population becomes more and more serious、Labour costs rising，And service can bring behind the grim situation of employment。

　　目前中国整个社会的情绪和偏好跟之前有所不同。上世纪80年代，公众关心的是公共问题，没人考虑挣钱；但从90年代开始，大家都在考虑赚钱。现在以及未来大家关注更多的可能不是经济问题，而是社会公正和收入分配公平等问题。

At present Chinese the whole social emotions and with different preference before。In the 1980 s，The public are concerned about public problem，No one considered to earn money；But in the 90 s，Everyone in considering to make money。Present and future attention more may not be economic problems，But social justice and fair income distribution problems。

　　现有制度已难适应社会经济环境 The existing system has been difficult to adapt to the social economic environment

　　新京报：你在《出门散步的经济学》里面提到经济增长与制度安排的关系，目前的制度适合现在社会经济环境吗？

The Beijing news：you《Go out for a walk of economics》Mentioned in economic growth and institutional arrangements of the relationship，The current system suitable for now the social economy environment？

　　何帆：我那时候的研究兴趣主要是制度经济学。从过去30年的发展趋势来看，中国的制度非常适合经济增长。如果单纯追求经济增长，现在的体制仍然非常适合，因为中国从上到下都追求更高的GDP。

he：I at that time research interests mainly is the institutional economics。From the past 30 years of development trend，China's system is very suitable for economic growth。If only the pursuit of economic growth，The current system still very suitable for，Because China from top to bottom are the pursuit of higher GDP。

　　但是现在我们的目标已经不单纯是经济增长了，所以制度就不是非常合适了。我们现在更关心民生问题，这样在制度方面就要做一些调整，大概的调整方向是更加注重经济结构调整，把民生的指标放在更靠前的位置。

But now our goals are not only is the economic growth，So the system is not very appropriate。We are now more concerned about the livelihood of the people question，In the system will do some adjustment，Approximate adjustment direction is pay more attention to the readjustment of the economic structure，The people's livelihood index on the front of the position more。

　　政府考核指标要有所调整，弱化GDP在考核中的比重，在考核机制中更多地引入民生指标，比如就业率、节能减排和生产安全等。

The government assessment index have to be adjusted，Weakening in the proportion of GDP assessment，In the inspection mechanism more in the people's livelihood index，Such as employment、Energy conservation and emission reduction and production safety。

　　新京报：对目前的国际经济形势及其未来的走向如何看待？

The Beijing news：On the current international economic situation and the future trend of how look upon？

　　何帆：总体来看，美国经济和日本经济的表现比去年要好一些。

he：overall，The U.S. economy and the Japanese economy performance better than last year。

　　美国主要是消费的增长速度比较快，今年一季度消费占美国GDP的比重已经达到71%，是历史最高水平。

The United States is mainly consumption growth rate is faster，In the first quarter of this year consumption accounted for the proportion of America's GDP has reached 71%，Is the historical highest level。

　　但这并不意味着美国经济出现趋势性复苏，这只是一个反弹，可能还会降下来。尤其是今年年底和明年年初，从小布什时代开始的减税政策今年会自动作废；同时，美国国会曾经讨论过债务上限，如果没有共识，支出就要自动削减。

But this does not mean that the U.S. economy appears trend recovery，This is just a rebound，May also drop down。Especially the end of this year and early next year，From the beginning of the age of the bush tax cuts this year will be automatically cancelled；At the same time，The United States congress have discussed the debt limit，If there is no consensus，Spending will be automatic cut。

　　减税自动结束，支出又要削减，就是很严厉的紧缩财政政策。但下届美国政府不管是奥巴马还是罗姆尼上台，可能都会把减税的政策再往后推迟。

Tax cuts to be automatic end，Expenditure and to cut，Is a very tough to tighten fiscal policy。But the next U.S. government whether Obama or romney onstage，Can the tax policy further delay。

　　日本经济今年增长势头比较好，主要是因为与去年同期进行对比，去年在经历了地震、海啸、核泄漏和日元升值后，其基数比较低，但日本的问题也很多。

Japan's economic growth momentum this year better，Mainly because of the same period last year and compared，Last year after the earthquake、tsunami、Nuclear leak and after the Japanese yen appreciation，The lower base，But Japan's problem has a lot of。

　　同题问答 Question and answer questions with

　　最关注石油期货改革 The most attention oil futures reform

　　新京报：对于中国的诸多经济学人，你最为尊敬的是哪一位？

The Beijing news：For China's many economist，You the most respected is which one？

　　何帆：我最尊敬的经济学人是我们所前任所长余永定教授。他是很老派的知识分子，保持着中国传统知识分子的美德。他的欲望很少，对物质基本没什么要求，学问就是他的生命，这么纯粹的知识分子现在越来越少了。

he：My most respected economist is what we former director professor issue。He is very old intellectuals，Keep the Chinese traditional intellectual virtue。His desire seldom，To the material's basic requirements，Knowledge is his life，So pure intellectuals now less and less。

　　新京报：2012年的经济运行到现在，当前的状况，是否有让你很意外的地方？为什么？

The Beijing news：2012 years of economic operation to now，The current status，If there is a make you very unexpected places？why？

　　何帆：今年的经济运行状况跟我们年初的判断大体一致。但我们年初有一点没有想到，就是外贸方面的变化。

he：This year's economic operation condition at the beginning of the year with our judgment is broadly in line。But we have a little early didn't think，Is the change of foreign trade。

　　我们之前对外贸的估计比较悲观，现在来看外贸的状况还可以。之前预测下半年油价可能会下跌，但没想到下跌的速度这么快，这对改善中国的对外贸易也有帮助。

Our foreign trade before the estimate is pessimistic，Now come to foreign trade situation can also。Before the second half of forecast oil prices could fall，But I didn't know the speed of the fall so fast，This to improve China's foreign trade have help。

　　新京报：近期在市场层面，你认为哪一项改革最值得期待？

The Beijing news：In the near future in the market level，What do you think a reform most is worth looking forward to？

　　何帆：我个人比较关注推出石油期货这项改革。一直以来，中国石油(601857,股吧)进口量很大，但没有定价权，是否有可能通过推出石油期货赢得一部分定价权，这是我比较关心的。另外在技术层面上还涉及到账户开放问题，比如是美元定价还是人民币定价，这与我的研究方向有关。

he：I personally attention oil futures launched the reform。Has been，China petroleum(601857,guba)Imports large，But no pricing，If it is possible to win by introducing oil futures part pricing，This is I'm more concerned。In the technical level also involves account open problems，For example is dollars or RMB pricing pricing，This with my research direction about。

　　新京报：未来10年，你认为哪一个行业具有投资前景？

The Beijing news：The next 10 years，Which one do you think industry has the investment prospects？

　　何帆：从资产种类来看，全球范围内股票和公司债最有投资前景。现在股票和公司债还有可能下跌，大家认为有风险；但从长远看，股票和公司债是有投资前景的，如果你相信中国未来10年还会有比较强劲的经济增长。

he：From the asset class to see，Global stocks and bonds most investment prospects。Now, stocks and bonds and may decline，We think there is risk；But in the long run，Stocks and bonds are investment prospects，If you believe that China's future 10 years will also have a more robust economic growth。

　　个人成果 Personal achievements

　　何帆出版的专著包括《为市场经济立宪：当代中国财政问题报告》、《经济全球化时代的对外政策；寻找新的理论视角》、《出门散步的经济学》等，并有多部译著。在国内重要经济学期刊发表论文30多篇。

He published monograph including《For market economy constitutionalism：Contemporary China's finance problem reports》、《Economic globalization foreign policy；Looking for a new theoretical perspective》、《Go out for a walk of economics》, etc，And there are a lot of translation。In the domestic important economics journals published more than 30 articles。

　　B06-B08版采写/新京报记者 李蕾 杨万国

B06 - B08 edition collection &composition/Beijing news reporter li lei YangWanGuo