金证券记者 江芬芬

Gold securities JiangFenFen reporters

　　从2008年1月3日创下90美元天价，到8月30日每股收盘价0.9美元，无锡尚德（STP）4年多时间的剧变让人瞠目。即便如此，美国美新集团日前却毫不留情将公司目标价调至0美元，理由是公司资产负债表存在巨大漏洞，明年3月到期债务难以偿还，唯一的出路是破产重组。

From 2008 January 3 hit a record $90，To August 30, closing price of $0.9 per share，Wuxi suntech（STP）More than 4 years time upheaval let a person stare。Even so，The new group has beauty but no mercy will be transferred to the company target price of $0，Reason is the company's balance sheet existing huge holes，March due to repay the debt，The only way out is to bankruptcy reorganization。

　　尚德只是中国光伏产业困境的缩影。截至8月30日美股收市，赛维LDK太阳能报1.32美元、晶澳太阳能报0.95美元、中电光伏报1.52美元、英利新能源报1.63美元……中概股股价的集体沦陷，已经把光伏产业逼到了必须转型的绝境。

Suntech is the epitome of China pv industry dilemma。As of August 30 us stocks closing，"D LDK solar to $1.32、Crystal Macao solar energy to $0.95、China sunergy to $1.52、Yingli new energy to $1.63...Will the shares of collective fall into enemy hands，The pv industry has been forced to must make the transition of despair。

　巨额债务：破产潮导火索？ Huge amounts of debt：Bankruptcy tide fuse？

　　“光伏产业落到如此境地，除了国外双反和经济危机的影响，最主要的还是国内光伏产业的无序增长。”浙江一家光伏企业老总王兴（化名）对《金证券》记者表示。

“Photovoltaic industry fell to such a situation，In addition to foreign double reverse and the influence of the economic crisis，The main or the domestic photovoltaic industry disordered growth。”Zhejiang a photovoltaic enterprise old total WangXing（alias）to《Gold securities》reporters。

　　即便是光伏产业发展最蓬勃的欧美国家，也没见过七、八年时间涌入2000家企业的行业奇景。王兴介绍，“尤其是2010年，国内产能上得比较快，卖毛巾、袜子的，也投身光伏投资潮。地方政府在其中推波助澜，上游和下游全面铺开。很多地方都建立了光伏产业园，每个产业园都要建成超过千亿的规模，都嚷着成为世界排名靠前的光伏王国。”

Even pv industry development the most thriving the European and American countries，Also haven't seen seven、Eight years into 2000 enterprises of the industry wonders。WangXing introduced，“Especially in 2010，Domestic capacity on faster，Sell towel、socks，Also in photovoltaic investment boom。The local government in which add fuel to the fire，Upstream and downstream spread to open completely。Many places have established the pv industrial park，Each industrial park will be completed more than the size of the yuan，All cried out to become the world ranking the front of the photovoltaic kingdom。”

　　2012年全球光伏市场需求为30GW，仅中国就有50-60GW的产能，产能过剩极其严重。“其实一些中小企业还扛得过去，毕竟此前光伏产业辉煌过，现在只不过是把以前赚的吐出来。处境最糟糕的，恰是那些追求大、快、高的龙头企业。”他称。比如赛维LDK、尚德电力，为成行业“巨无霸”，大量举债快速扩大生产，如今不得不饱尝过度扩张的恶果。

In 2012 the global photovoltaic market demand for 30 gw，China alone 50-60 gw productivity，Excess capacity is extremely serious。“In fact some small and medium-sized enterprises still take the past，After all previous pv industry have brilliant，Now is only earn before the spit it out。The worst of the situation，Just is those who pursue big、fast、High leading enterprise。”He says。Such as "d LDK、Suntech power，For into industry“Big MAC”，A lot of debt fast expand production，Now have to the excessive expansion of consequences。

　　眼下，这些企业正面临两难。光伏前期投资巨大，通常耗资10多个亿以上，且光伏均是专业性设备，“虽然很多企业产品卖不出去，大量积压，但企业也不敢停产。一方面停产成本大，机器无法处理。另外，一旦被发现停产，债主都会找上门来讨债”，王兴透露，目前国内金融机构对光伏产业贷款普遍收紧，对中小光伏企业基本只收不贷，特别是中小银行，很多都明确表示不再向光伏企业提供贷款。

the，These enterprises are facing a dilemma。Photovoltaic prophase investment huge，Usually cost more than 10 more than she，And photovoltaic are professional equipment，“Although a lot of enterprise product sells do not go out，Backlog of，But the enterprise did not dare to suspend production。On the one hand big production cost，Machine can't deal with。In addition，Once was found to suspend production，Creditors will seek to pay the rent”，WangXing revealed，At present domestic financial institutions to pv industry loan general tightening，For small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprise basic accept not credit，Especially small and medium-sized Banks，Many are made it clear that no longer to pv enterprises to provide loans。

　　采访中，多位业内人士表示，“债务将成为压死光伏企业的最后一根稻草，大规模破产潮或为期不远。”

interview，Many people in the industry say，“Debt will be killed photovoltaic enterprise's the last straw，Mass bankruptcy tide or in the near future。”

　　光伏企业的困境也将产业链拖至深渊。江西赛维此前曾透露，公司应收账款的周转天数增加至220天，应付款项周转天数增加至185天。该公司是新纶科技(002341,股吧)、新大新材(300080,股吧)、奥克股份(300082,股吧)、京运通(601908,股吧)等多家A股公司的大客户。市场普遍担心，因巨额应收账款无法收回，相关公司出现重大风险。

Photovoltaic enterprise dilemma will also industrial chain tow to the deep。LDK had earlier said，The company accounts receivable turnover days increased to 220 days，Accounts payable turnover days increased to 185 days。The company is the new black silk ribbon technology(002341,guba)、Xinda new material(300080,guba)、Oker shares(300082,guba)、Beijing express(601908,guba)And so many A shares of the company's big customer。Market is worried about，Because of the huge accounts receivable can be retrieved，Related company there are serious risk。

西部跃进：过剩产能如何消化？ Western leap forward：Excess capacity to digest？

　　8月29日，记者致电江苏另一家光伏企业副总时，他告诉《金证券》，“我正在青海参加一家光伏电站的开工仪式”。

On August 29,，Reporters call the jiangsu another photovoltaic enterprise when vice-president，He told《Gold securities》，“I'm in a photovoltaic power station in qinghai ceremony”。

　　与东部地区光伏企业叫苦不迭、无从觅食不同，步入2012年，西北各省却逆势掀起光伏终端市场建设的高潮，纷纷推出1GW的奋斗目标。各类投资消息不断，如航天机电(600151,股吧)拟投资60亿元在宁夏建600MW光伏电站项目、通威集团获得新疆签约2GW太阳能电站合约、甘肃今年的光伏电站上马的产能估计将达到2－3GW……

The eastern area and photovoltaic enterprise complain incessantly、Not foraging different，Into the 2012 years，Northwest provinces but a contrarian photovoltaic terminal market construction of high tide，Have introduced 1 gw goal。All kinds of investment news continuously，Such as space mechanical and electrical(600151,guba)Quasi investment of 6 billion yuan RMB in ningxia built 600 mw photovoltaic power station project、Pass wei group get xinjiang signing contract gw 2 solar power、Gansu province this year's photovoltaic power station of the productivity estimation will reach 2-3 gw...

　　据了解，《太阳能光伏产业“十二五”发展规划》新近出炉。据规划，“十二五”期间，我国光伏发电装机容量将达到21GW，其中分布式发电和大规模发电分别占10GW。这一数据多次修改，并且不断提高，在外界看来，国家欲提振市场信心、借助国内需求突围之意明显。

It is understood，《The solar energy photovoltaic industry“1025”Development planning》Newly released。According to the planning，“1025”period，Our country photovoltaic generating capacity will reach 21 gw，The distributed power generation and large-scale power accounted for 10 gw。The data changed several times，And constantly improve the，In the outside world seems to，Countries to boost market confidence、With the aid of domestic demand breakout meaning clear。

　　不过王兴直言，“光伏发电作为一种商品，目前仍没有上网价格，没有价格就没有规模市场，十几亿的投资也就无法产生经济效益。况且，以我国目前产能50GW计算，21GW的安装量不过杯水车薪，何况西部地区工程上马正在加快速度。”

But WangXing the truth，“Photovoltaic power generation as a kind of commodity，Currently there are no prices on the Internet，No price is no scale market，More than investment cannot produce economic benefits。besides，In our country at present the capacity 50 gw calculation，21 gw installation quantity but in the ocean，How much more will the western region the engineering is accelerating speed。”

　　中国能源经济研究院光伏研究中心主任红炜同样提出，“从自然条件讲，利用西部地区优良的日照和广阔的荒漠建设光伏终端市场无疑是合理的。但光伏产业发展是一个依靠补贴政策、电网发展、技术进步不断协调促进的长跑过程，这个距离是多长，目前没有人能够说清楚，应当慎重对待光伏终端市场的每一笔投入。” 他提出，国家应当尽快制定对各省发展具有可操作并有指导意义的光伏产业规划，从严把握审批权限。

China's energy economy research institute photovoltaic research center director red Hui also put forward，“Speaking from the natural conditions，Use the western region good sunshine and broad desert building photovoltaic terminal market is undoubtedly reasonable。But pv industry development is a rely on subsidies、Power grid development、Technical progress continuously promote the coordination of the long distance running process，How long is this distance，No one can say，Should seriously photovoltaic terminal market each input。” He proposed，The state shall formulate development as soon as possible to the provinces with operation and has the guidance meaning of photovoltaic industry planning，Strictly grasp the examination and approval authority。

　　智能房屋：日本太阳能牛股新思维 Intelligent building：Japan solar winners new thinking

　　就在中国光伏企业股价身处凄风苦雨之际，日本最大的太阳能发电系统安装商West Holdings却在海啸之后，大幅跑赢日经指数。

In China pv enterprises share price in the vile weather，Japan's largest solar power system installation contractor West Holdings is in after the tsunami，Greatly run win nikkei index。

　　《金证券》记者获悉，随着上网补贴政策的落实，West Holdings已顺利从一家装修公司转型为纯正的太阳能组件B2C经销商。该公司几乎都是从中国的生产商处买入组件，来自晶澳的供应增长尤其迅速。虽然公司目前也开始涉足B2B的太阳能组件批发业务，但管理层还是认为来自智能房屋的零售需求，是未来最有看头的发展方向。

《Gold securities》The reporter learns，With the implementation of the Internet subsidy policy，West Holdings has been successfully from a decorate a company to transformation for the pure solar energy components B2C dealers。The company almost all came from Chinese manufacturers place buy components，From crystal Australia supply growth especially rapid。Although the company also began to set foot in B2B solar module wholesale business，But the management still think from intelligent houses retail demand，Is the future development direction of the most quality。

　　也就在近期，国家能源局新能源和可再生能源司官员对外宣称，“大型电站的建设是简单的劳动，没有太大的技术含量，也缺乏制度创新，或者至少近期不应该以大规模建设大型电站为主。必须要开放用户端的市场，支持用户自主地建设光伏系统。”

In recent，National energy bureau new energy and renewable energy company officials declared，“Large power station construction is a simple labor，Not too big technology content，Also the lack of system innovation，Or at least in the near future should not to large-scale construction of large power station is given priority to。Must want to open client market，Support user independently building photovoltaic system。”

　　上海一研究员对《金证券》记者表示，“这表明，国家对光伏市场的态度已经转变，不主要支持易于大规模发展的大型电站，转而发展困难重重的分布式光伏系统，鼓励企业技术创新降低成本。”

Shanghai is a researcher to《Gold securities》reporters，“This suggests that，The state of the photovoltaic market attitude has changed，Not the main support to the large scale development of large power plant，Turn development troubled distributed photovoltaic system，Encourage enterprise's technology innovation, and reduce the cost。”

　　需要指出的是，国外家庭多独门独户，90%以上光伏发电都是分布式发电，但中国都是公寓式楼房，不适合安装光伏组件。并且，如果没有补贴的情况下，光伏安装每千瓦要超过3万元，家庭承受能力有限。

It should be pointed out that，More foreign family one-and two-family houses，More than 90% photovoltaic power generation are distributed generation，But China is apartment buildings，Not suitable for installation pv module。and，If there is no subsidized cases，Photovoltaic install every kilowatt to more than 30000 yuan，Family bear ability is limited。