一、上市公司财务分析类似于体检，都是比率分析。

a、The listed company financial analysis similar to the physical examination，Are ratio analysis。

　　巴菲特最近正在进行前列腺癌的化疗。82岁高龄的他去年患上了很多六七十岁的欧美老年男人经常会有的前列腺癌。他得病时间晚得多，但发现时间早得多，这要归功于他每年都进行体检。

Buffett recently is on prostate cancer chemotherapy。82 - year - old last year, he had a lot of 60 years old in the United States and Europe older men often some prostate cancer。He sick time much later in the year，But find time much earlier，Thanks to his medical examination every year。

　　近日我去做年度体检，抽血、B超、拍片，一连串检查，一个也不能少，最后体检报告上会是一个个指标、一个个比率，医生对比正常水平，综合分析，评估总体健康情况。

Recently I do annual physical examination，exsanguinate、B to exceed、shooting，A series of inspection，One also cannot little，The last check-up report will is a index、A ratio，The doctor contrast normal level，Comprehensive analysis，Assessment overall health。

　　巴菲特每年仔细阅读大量年报，对上市公司进行财务分析，不就像是给它们做体检吗？资产负债表中，固定资产如同骨骼，流动资产好比肌肉等组织，负债是我们从外部吸收的食物能量，股东权益好比我们自身的能量，利润表表示我们吃下各种食物消化吸收转化成更多能量的过程，现金流量表则表示我们血液从心脏流进流出。正是因为巴菲特年年给他关注的上市公司仔细体检，所以他从来没有踩中过世通、雷曼等具有重大财务问题地雷的上市公司，选择的都是非常健康越发展越强大的超级明星公司。

Buffett every year read a large number of annual report，To the listed company financial analysis，Don't like they do physical examination？The balance sheet，Fixed assets as bone，Current assets like muscle tissue，Liabilities are we from external absorption of food energy，Shareholders' equity is like our own energy，The income statement said that we eat various food digestion and absorption into the process of more energy，The cash flow statement, said we blood from the heart flow into the outflow。It is for buffett from year to year to give him attention of the listed company careful physical examination，So he never died on in general、Lehman has significant financial problem mines of the listed companies，Choose is very healthy the development more powerful super star company。

　　我们体检分析报告上是各种比率指标，我们对上市公司的体检报告就是各种财务比率分析指标。那么我们如何衡量比较这些指标确定公司这个经济体的健康和强壮程度呢？

Our medical analysis report is various ratio index，We to the listed company's physical examination report is all kinds of financial ratio analysis indicators。So how do we measure compared these indicators to determine the company the economy's health and strong degree？

　　体检主要有两个比较基准：一是和自己过去相比，二是和群体正常平均水平相比。上市公司财务比率分析的比较基准也类似，一是和自身过去相比，二是和行业平均水平相比。最主要的是和平均水平比。

There are two major medical comparative reference：One is compared and his past，The second is normal and group compared to the average level。The listed company financial ratio analysis comparison datum is similar，One is and their own than in the past，The second is compared and the industry average。The mainest is and average ratio。

　　二、巴菲特寻找的超级明星企业不适合和行业平均水平对比分析，更适合和最主要竞争对手对比分析。

two、Buffett looking for super star enterprise doesn't fit and comparative analysis of the industry average，More suitable for and the main competitors contrast analysis。

　　但巴菲特寻找的是超级明星，业务优势超一流、管理水平超一流、财务业绩超一流，都远远超过行业平均水平。他说：“我就像一个NBA篮球教练，我要找的是2米14以上的大个子。”2米多的篮球球员和普通人群平均身高水平相差40多公分，肯定不合适。巴菲特寻找的超级明星公司和行业平均水平相比，资产和销售收入水平相差更大，有时会相差几倍到几十倍，完全不适合和行业平均水平相比。

But Mr Buffett looking for is super star，Business enjoying advantages、Enjoying the management level、Enjoying financial performance，Are far more than the industry average。He said：“I like a NBA basketball coach，I'm looking for is 2 meters and more big。”More than 2 meters of the basketball players and the general population average height level difference of more than 40 cm，Sure don't fit。Buffett looking for super star company and industry than average，Assets and sales income level are greater，Sometimes a few times are to dozens of times，Not suitable for industry average and compared。

　　幸运的是，在球场上，所有伟大的超级明星都有一个伟大的对手。在很多行业中，尤其是长期稳定发展的行业中，那些伟大的超级明星企业也往往都有一个与其实力相比难分高下的对手。比如软饮料行业中的可口可乐与百事可乐，快餐行业中的麦当劳与肯德基，飞机制造行业中的波音与空客。两个超级明星企业旗鼓相当，几乎垄断了行业的大部分市场，这就形成了典型的双寡头垄断格局。这种情况，分析其中一个超级明星企业，与行业平均水平相比，没有太大的意义，只能也必须与另一个超级明星企业竞争对手进行对比分析。巴菲特说是这样做的：“我阅读我所关注的公司年报，同时我也阅读它的竞争对手的年报，这些年报是我最主要的阅读材料。”

fortunately，On the pitch，All great super star has a great opponent。In many industries，Especially long-term stable development of the industry，The great super star enterprise also often have a strength and compared uphill opponents。Such as soft drinks industry of Coca Cola and Pepsi cola，Fast food industry in McDonald's and Kentucky Fried chicken，The aircraft manufacturing industries of Boeing and airbus。Two super star enterprise toe，Almost monopoly of the industry most of the market，This creates a typical double oligopoly pattern。This kind of situation，This paper analyses the a super star enterprise，Compared with the industry average，Not too big significance，Only must also be with another super star enterprise competition was compared and analyzed。Buffett, do so：“I read what I focus on the company's annual report，At the same time I also read the annual reports of its competitors，The annual report is my most main reading material。”

　　三、巴菲特进行财务分析对比时关注的不是规模大小，而是收益率高低变化及其原因。

three、Buffett financial analysis and comparison of the attention when not size，But the yield level change and the reasons。

　　上市公司最关注的是规模排名，主要是销售收入规模排名，比如《财富》杂志世界500强就是收入排名，另外也有资产规模排名和盈利规模排名。

The listed company is the most attention in scale，Mainly sales revenue scale rankings，For example《wealth》The magazine is the world's top 500 ranked income，There are also asset scale rankings and earnings scale rankings。

　　但巴菲特进行财务分析对比时关注的不是收入、资产、盈利规模，而是收益率的排名。

But Mr Buffett financial analysis and comparison on the income is not、assets、Earnings scale，But the rate of return ranking。

　　巴菲特（1981）说：“大部分机构，包括商业机构及其他机构，衡量自己或者被别人衡量，以及激励下属管理人员，所使用的标准绝大部分是销售收入规模大小。问问那些名列《财富》500强的大公司的经理人他们的公司排第几名，他们回答的排名数字肯定是销售收入排名。他们可能根本都不知道，如果销售收入《财富》500强企业根据盈利能力进行排名的话，自己的公司会排在第几名。”

buffett（1981）said：“Most institutions，Including commercial organizations and other organizations，Measure yourself by others or measure，And motivating subordinate management personnel，The use of standard most is sales revenue size。Ask those ranked《wealth》500 strong big company managers their company ranked row，They answered ranking number must be sales ranking。They may never know，If the sales revenue《wealth》500 strong enterprise according to the word of profitability，His company will exhaust in which name。”

　　巴菲特（1993）骄傲地说：“如果扣除这些属于营业外收入的横财，那么我们控股的子公司 Scott Fetzer的净资产收益率将会在《财富》世界500强企业中排名第一，远远领先排名第二的企业。事实上排名第一的Scott Fetzer的净资产收益率是排名第十企业的两倍。”

buffett（1993）Proud to say that：“If deduct these belong to the non-operating income windfall，Then we owned subsidiary of Scott Fetzer rate of return on net assets will be in《wealth》The world's top 500 enterprises ranked first，Second, in which it is far ahead of the enterprise。In fact ranking first Scott Fetzer's return on equity is ranked tenth enterprise two times。”

　　因此巴菲特进行财务比率分析的关键是，把他关注的超级明星企业的净资产收益率与过去相比，与实力相当的最主要竞争对手企业相比，提高了，还是降低了？最主要的原因是什么？

So Mr Buffett financial ratio analysis is the key，He paid close attention to the super star enterprise net assets yield compared with the past，And the strength of the most main competitor is compared to the enterprise，Improve the，Or reduce the？The most what is the main reason？

　　我们以中国白酒行业为例，2011年，五粮液(000858,股吧)销售收入203亿净利润64亿，贵州茅台(600519,股吧)销售收入184亿净利润93亿，净利润排名后面10位的是：洋河41亿，泸州老窖(000568,股吧)31亿，山西汾酒(600809,股吧)9亿，古井贡6亿，金种子4亿，水井坊(600779,股吧)3亿，青青稞酒(002646,股吧)、伊力特(600197,股吧)、沱牌、酒鬼酒都是2亿。由于差距巨大，把五粮液和茅台(600519,股吧)与行业平均水平对比并不合适，更好的办法是二者进行对比分析。

We Chinese liquor industry as an example，In 2011,，Wu liang ye(000858,guba)The income from sales of 20.3 billion net profit of 6.4 billion，Guizhou maotai(600519,guba)The income from sales of 18.4 billion net profit of 9.3 billion，Net profit is behind in 10：Yanghe 4.1 billion，Luzhou old cellar(000568,guba)3.1 billion，Shanxi fenjiu(600809,guba)900 million，GuJingGong 600 million，Gold 400 million seeds，ShuiJingFang(600779,guba)300 million，Green chang(002646,guba)、Iraq's force(600197,guba)、TuoPai、Drunkard wine is 200 million。Due to the huge gap between，Wu liang ye and the maotai(600519,guba)And the industry average contrast is not appropriate，A better way is both are compared and analyzed。

　　（作者为汇添富基金公司首席投资理财师，本文仅为个人观点，并非任何劝诱或投资建议。）

（The author is collect add rich fund company chief investment banking division，In this paper, only for personal point of view，Not any coax or investment advice。）