从2007年至今，我国光伏电池产量稳居世界首位，也成为全球最大的光伏产品输出地。但是随着近期欧美，甚至印度开始针对我国光伏产品进行“双反”，“紧箍咒”是越箍越紧，我国光伏产品出口蒙上了一层阴影。反映在国内企业上，江西赛维最近就是麻烦事不断，而A股光伏类上市公司的日子会好过吗？为此，湘财证券研究所新能源研究员徐颢、本报记者陈其珏以及本报主持人李霞，就相关话题进行了探讨。

From 2007 to now，Our pv batteries being the world's first production，Also as the world's largest pv products output。But as recent Europe and the United States，Even India on our pv products“Double the”，“inhibitions”Is the hoop tight，Our pv product export cast a shadow over。Reflected in the domestic enterprise，LDK is trouble recently constantly，And A shares of the listed company photovoltaic when thought？For this，XiangCai securities institute new energy researcher xu hao finds、Our correspondent ChenJiJue and our host LiXia，Related topics discussed。

　　光伏产业贸易战开打

Photovoltaic industry open trade war

　　主持人：最近一段时间以来，对我国光伏企业来说，来自海外的“坏消息”可谓不断。北京交通大学理学院太阳能研究所所长徐征曾表示，我国近六成光伏产品销往欧盟市场，一旦欧盟“双反”，我国光伏制造商将遭受摧毁性打击。“摧毁性打击”的说法会不会有点夸张？

The host：In recent months，To our pv enterprise for example，From overseas“Bad news”Is constantly。Beijing jiaotong university school of solar energy research institute XuZheng has said，Our country nearly sixty percent photovoltaic products are sold to the eu market，Once the eu“Double the”，Our pv manufacturers will suffer and destructive blow。“Destructive blow”Would that a bit of an exaggeration？

　　徐颢：其实并不夸张，因为从整个光伏市场来看，欧洲装机量是全球的60%左右，我国装机量大概占10%。因此，由于拥有60%的市场，欧盟提出双反将使中国光伏制造商的生存困境越发严重。现在整个光伏行业用一句话来概括就是产能过剩、盈利大幅下降，在市场增速只有20%、30%的情况下产能增速已经达到了100%。如果美国和印度都提出双反的话，对中国光伏产业来说就是雪上加霜。

Xu hao finds：Actually not exaggerated，Because the whole photovoltaic market from see，Europe is installed, about 60% of the world，Installed in 10%。so，With 60% of the market，The European Union will make China put forward the double photovoltaic manufacturers living predicaments grew more serious。Now the whole photovoltaic industry to sum up in one word is excess capacity、Profit plunged，In the market growth was only 20%、30% of the cases productivity growth has reached 100%。If the United States and India all put forward the double words，To China for photovoltaic industry is down。

　　陈其珏：我看到的数据是中国可能有七成产品出口欧盟，但不管是六成还是七成，对中国企业的打击都是非常大的。如果欧盟确认中国光伏倾销的话，意味着七成的市场没有了，这的确是“摧毁性的打击”。

ChenJiJue：I see the data is China may have seventy percent products are exported to the European Union，But no matter the sixty percent or seventy percent，To the Chinese enterprise the assault is very big。If the eu confirmed that Chinese photovoltaic dumping words，Means that seventy percent of the market is not，This is indeed“Destructive blow”。

　　主持人：就在欧盟将对我进行“双反”的消息传出前几天，中国商务部宣布对美国和韩国的多晶硅产品进行反倾销立案调查。这是怎样一个情况呢？

The host：In the European Union will be on me“Double the”The news of a few days ago，China's commerce ministry announced on U.S. and south Korean polycrystalline silicon product anti-dumping investigation。This is how a case？

　　徐颢：韩国多晶硅龙头企业OCI一直在中国进行低价倾销，报出的价格甚至是低于每公斤20美元以下。而中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会数据显示，近期国际多晶硅现货主流报价在每公斤20到25美元。从国内最大的多晶硅生产企业保利协鑫了解到，目前世界一线多晶硅厂商生产成本每公斤25到30美元左右，加上管理和运营成本，以27美元/公斤以下的价格销售肯定是亏本经营。

Xu hao finds：South Korea polysilicon leading enterprise in China has been OCI dumping at low prices，Quoted price is lower than even under $20 per kg。And the China non-ferrous metal industry association silicon industry branch data shows，Recent international polysilicon spot in the mainstream offer per kilogram $20 to 25。From the country's largest polysilicon production enterprise poly association xin to understand，At present the world a line of polysilicon manufacturer production cost per kilogram 25 to 30 dollars，Plus management and operation cost，To $27 / kg of the sales price is sure to lose money management。

　　但由于美国、韩国的多晶硅技术在世界上一直是领先的，之前多晶硅价格在几百元甚至60美元左右的时候，他们的毛利率和净利率都非常高。现在看上去是亏本的，但是以刨去折旧成本之后的现金成本计算，只要价格不低于18、20美元，我相信国外企业都愿意去做。现在国内企业技术上来之后成本也在降，因此，大家都是在进行低价竞争。只是美国、韩国的多晶硅企业向日本和欧洲出口的多晶硅价格普遍高于向中国出口的多晶硅价格，从这个角度看，美韩企业对中国是进行了一定的倾销。

But because the United States、South Korea polysilicon technology in the world has been the leading，Hundreds of yuan in polysilicon price before even about $60，Their profit margins and net interest rate is very high。Now it seems the lose money，But to dig to depreciation cost of cash after cost calculation，As long as the price is not under 18、$20，I believe that foreign companies are willing to do。Now the domestic enterprise technology up costs also came after in，so，Everyone is in low price competition。Only American、South Korea polysilicon enterprise to Japan and Europe export prices higher than polysilicon export to China polysilicon prices，From this perspective，The United States and South Korea to China is enterprise a dumping。

　　陈其珏：目前中国的光伏市场已经比较成熟了，海外多晶硅企业都争相欲占领中国市场。多年以前在海外垄断背景下多晶硅价格曾高达400多美元，所以现在海外企业想通过低价策略占领中国市场，等到国内的多晶硅企业都歇了，再涨价格，到那个时候就没有企业跟他竞争了。

ChenJiJue：At present China of photovoltaic is comparatively mature market，Overseas enterprise are competing to polysilicon to capture the Chinese market。Many years ago in overseas monopoly background polycrystalline silicon prices had as much as $400，So now the overseas enterprise want to through the low price strategy to take up the Chinese market，Wait until the domestic enterprise are rested from polysilicon，And rose price，By that time there is no enterprise compete with him。

　　徐颢：从美国来看是一场贸易战的开始，中国包括英利、尚德等组成了一个光伏联盟，一直在传他们会对美国等进口厂商进行回应。从中国的角度来看，下游电池和组件产品的盈利预期会暂时往下调。因为60%、70%的多晶硅是进口的，提高进口关税将使得电池和组件的成本要高很多，整个中国光伏产业会受到比较大的影响。

Xu hao finds：From the United States to see is a trade war began，China including yingli、Suntech etc formed a photovoltaic alliance，Have been passed on to the United States, and they will import manufacturers to respond。From the point of view of China，Downstream products and components of the battery will temporarily earnings expectations to cut。Because 60%、70% of polycrystalline silicon is imported，Improve the import tariffs will allow the battery and the component costs much higher，The whole China pv industry will be more big influence。

　　陈其珏：这就是一场贸易战，只要是贸易战对双方都是不利的，杀敌一千，自损八百。而目前来看，只要欧债危机没有解决，贸易战会继续打下去。

ChenJiJue：This is a trade war，As long as it is a trade war is adverse to both sides，To develop the one thousand，Since the eight hundred loss。And so far，As long as the European debt crisis has not solved，Trade war will continue to play。

　　光伏类公司仍需熬冬

Photovoltaic class company still needs to endure winter

　　主持人：具体到光伏企业，最近江西赛维的债务问题闹得沸沸扬扬。我们目前了解的情况是，截至今年一季度末，有十多家金融机构与两家地方国企向赛维提供了高达128.85亿元的借款。

The host：Specific to photovoltaic enterprise，Recent LDK's debt problems is attempting to make。We now know the situation is，So far this year at the end of the quarter，There are over ten home financial institutions and two local state-owned enterprises to provide the d as high as 12.885 billion yuan borrowings。

　　陈其珏：我采访过赛维，当时感到非常惊讶。这么大的工厂，正门和后门居然被卡车堵着，不让里面的车出来，也不让外面的车进去。一些赛维的员工说，卡车是供应商派来的，因为赛维欠了大量供应商的钱款，几百万、上亿不等。这说明赛维的资金链紧张、债台高筑是一个很明确的事实。赛维去年四季报显示，负债总额已经达到了60亿美元，这个数字非常大，负债率也达到了87%。

ChenJiJue：I have interviewed the d，Was very surprised。So big of the factory，Front door and the back door that was blocking the truck，Don't let it out of the car，Also don't let the outside the car in。Some "d staff said，A truck is sent to the supplier，Because "a lot of suppliers owe the d money，Millions of、Ranging from hundreds of millions of。It shows that the d capital chain nervous、Debt is a very clear facts。"D last year four seasons newspaper showed，Total debt has reached 6 billion us dollars，This number is very big，Ratio was 87%。

　　徐颢：对光伏企业来说，一般的健康负债率是50%、60%，赛维87%是相当高的。而且他还要不断承受利息重压，一般企业年息可能是6%。

Xu hao finds：On photovoltaic enterprise speaking，The average healthy ratio is 50%、60%，"D 87% is high。And he also continue under weight of interest，General enterprise may be 6% annual interest。

　　主持人：江西赛维是国内非常大的光伏企业，如果他也出现这样那样问题的话，其他企业的日子想必也不好过，包括相关的A股上市公司。

The host：LDK is the very large photovoltaic enterprise，If he also appear so that the word of the problem，Other the day of the enterprise will be difficult，Including related A shares listed companies。

　　徐颢：A股光伏企业上市公司的日子当然不会好过。去年三季度以来，光伏产业的整个价格到现在下降了60%，去年年底是下降50%，也就是说这半年来价格是稳中有降。同时光伏市场是两头在外，多晶硅最终端市场是在欧洲和北美，这些国家的补贴下调对中国相关企业形成了一定的压力。从A股公司来看，超日太阳(002506,股吧)、海润光伏(600401,股吧)、向日葵等主要的下游都集中在欧洲，而欧洲补贴往下调后市场装机量，今年德国增速是零、意大利增速是负50%，在欧洲这种传统光伏市场没有起色情况下，这些公司的收入将大幅下滑。同时受到整个产业链的影响，他们的毛利率也不理想。此外，一些公司的库存相当于是半年收入，面临库存减值风险。同时因为欧元的相对弱势，他们的库存损益对今年的业绩影响会达到3-4个点。从这个层面来讲，光伏类上市公司的业绩不会太理想。

Xu hao finds：A shares of the listed company of photovoltaic enterprise days of course not better。Since the third quarter of last year，The prices of the photovoltaic industry to now down 60%，The end of last year is down 50%，That is the half a year to price stability is a drop。At the same time photovoltaic market is two head out，The terminal market is polysilicon in Europe and North America，These countries to cut subsidies of China's relevant enterprises to form the certain amount of pressure。From A shares company to see，Super day the sun(002506,Shares it)、The sea embellish photovoltaic(600401,Shares it)、Sunflowers and other major downstream are concentrated in Europe，And Europe to cut subsidies to market installed，This year the growth rate is zero、Italy was minus 50% growth，In Europe the traditional photovoltaic market did not start cases，The company's revenue will decline。At the same time by the influence of the whole industry chain，Their profit margins also is not ideal。In addition，Some of the company's inventory quite so half year income，Facing the risk inventory impairment。At the same time as the euro relatively weak，Their inventory of the performance of the profits and losses this year will reach the influence three to four points。Will tell from this level，The performance of listed company of photovoltaic (pv) not too ideal。

　　主持人：目前光伏整个产业链都不景气，光伏企业该如何度过这个寒冬？

The host：At present the whole industry chain are recession photovoltaic (pv)，Photovoltaic enterprise how to spend the winter？

　　徐颢：我觉得光伏行业景气下滑还会持续一段时间，大概会持续到2013年底，还有一年多的时间。从整个市场来看，传统光伏市场开始往下走，而新兴市场的需求还达不到以前传统市场的规模。同时从发电角度来看，光伏的发电成本现在是每度0.6元、0.7元，远高于火力发电成本。但我觉得到2013年底光伏成本会下降得比较大，从价格和成本上可以看到光伏产业的复苏，也就是整个光伏市场盈利开始复苏。从市场角度看，到2013年如果成本达到火电水平，整个市场会有更多资金投入下去，因为它有替代火电的作用。而如果政策放开，能真正平价上网，以利返民，光伏产业会出现一轮爆发式的增长。

Xu hao finds：I think photovoltaic industry boom downturn is likely to continue for some time，Probably will continue to the end of 2013，And a year's time。From the whole market and see，Traditional photovoltaic market began to go down，And emerging market demand has not come up to the size of the traditional market before。At the same time from power generation Angle，Photovoltaic power generation cost per degree is now 0.6 yuan、0.7 yuan，Far higher than coal-fired power cost。But I think by the end of 2013 the cost of pv will decline more greatly，From the price and cost can be seen on the recovery of the photovoltaic industry，Also is the whole photovoltaic market earnings recovery。From a market perspective，By 2013 if costs reached thermal power level，The whole market will have more money into it，Because it has the function of the alternative thermal power。And if policy let go，Can really parity surf the Internet，And he returned to the people，Photovoltaic industry will appear round BaoFaShi growth。

　　陈其珏：的确，关键是平价上网的时点。之前有预测最快要到2015年，但那个时候光伏行业的毛利率还是非常高的，大家觉得成本下降曲线每年8%、10%。但估计谁也没有想到2011年底价格会出现50%的大跌，因此平价上网的时间点可能会提前。

ChenJiJue：indeed，The key is parity, the leading online。Have the fastest to predict before until 2015，But by that time the photovoltaic industry gross margin or very high，You think the cost curve down by 8% a year、10%。But estimates that no one has thought of the end of 2011 the price will be 50% of the crash，So the Internet time points may parity in advance。

　　主持人：我们作一个最坏的打算。假设欧盟在一个月后对中国光伏产品进行“双反”，相当于欧美光伏市场关闭了。对相关企业来说或许就只能期待国内市场的爆发，届时国家会有什么样的政策呢？

The host：We make a the worst。The European Union in that after a month of photovoltaic products in China“Double the”，Equivalent to Europe and America market closed photovoltaic (pv)。It might be to relevant enterprises can look forward to the outbreak of the domestic market，When countries will have what kind of policy？

　　陈其珏：我国去年就出台了有关上网电价的政策，这是对光伏行业非常有利的政策。包括我采访过的专家也认为，现在最大的问题还是在电网这块，国家电网认为光伏和风电都是“垃圾电”，对电网会造成影响，而且要付出额外的成本，从而没有积极性让光电上榜，因此，国家对国家电网要给予一定的政策鼓励。

ChenJiJue：Our country is introduced last year about the power of the policy，It is very beneficial for photovoltaic industry policy。Including I have interviewed experts also think，The biggest problem right now or in the power grid，State grid think photovoltaic and wind power“Waste electricity”，To power will influence，And to pay extra costs，Thus no enthusiasm for photoelectric list，so，Countries to the national grid to give certain policy encouragement。

　　徐颢：最坏的打算很有可能会成为现实，而国家从出台政策到政策见效需要一个过程，因此，我对A股光伏上市公司的前景还是相对比较悲观的，我觉得对整个行业来说，现在还不是底部。

Xu hao finds：The worst is likely to become a reality，And the national policy to policy from effective needs a process，so，I to A shares of the listed company of photovoltaic or prospect is relatively pessimistic，I felt that the industry as a whole，It is not the bottom。