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“大缓和”中崛起--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-03

  中石油上市当日一跃成为全球最大的上市公司;巴西航空工业公司位居世界最大航空器制造商之列;印度巴勒特锻造公司则是全球第二大汽车零部件锻造公司……进入新世纪以来,新兴经济体在全球经济版图上异军突起,在发达经济体内部“大缓和”的经济环境下成长为对世界经济增长的主要贡献者。

Petrochina listed on that day had become the world's largest listed companies;Brazil aviation industry company in the world's largest aircraft manufacturers list;India balak's forging company is the world's second largest auto parts forging company...Into the new century,Emerging economies in the global economy on the rise of the territory,In developed economies internal"Big ease"Economic environment for the growth of the world economy increase of the main contributor.

  尽管危机肆虐,仍有不少投资者相信,新兴经济体是全球经济增长的引擎。美银美林在其2012年宏观形势预测报告中表示,新兴经济体各央行把支持经济增长放在优先位置,他们具有抗挑战的弹性。高盛在其2011年底的报告中认为,“新钻十一国”将进行的大规模基础设施建设是全球投资者应该关注的机会。

Although crisis wreak havoc,There are still many investors believe,Emerging economies is the engine of global growth.Bank of America merrill lynch in its 2012 macro situation forecast report said,Emerging economies' central Banks to support economic growth in the first position,They have resistance to challenge flexibility.Goldman sachs in its 2011 report that the end of the year,"New drill ten one country"Will the large-scale infrastructure construction is the global investors should focus on opportunity.

  而一个更令全球关注的大事件,则是金砖国家在金融合作方面取得的历史性突破。

And a more global attention to the big event,Is the nuggets countries in financial cooperation made a historical breakthrough.

  “南-南开发银行”这一构想源于经济学家斯蒂格利茨,最终在今年3月金砖国家领导人会晤时由印度提出。这也是继2011年协议成立金砖国家证券交易所之后金砖国家金融合作的另一重大事件。

"The south - south development bank"The idea comes from economists SiDiGeLiCi,Finally, in March this year nuggets national leaders met by Indian put forward.This is the 2011 agreement established nuggets national stock exchange after nuggets country financial cooperation another major event.

  印度提出建立“金砖国家开发银行”主要是源于其国内投资基础设施建设的需要和财政资金的不足,最近公布的2011~2012财政年度印度的财政赤字已超过目标1.2个百分点,足以说明其国内资金的匮乏。南非对于这一提议的积极响应同样也源于国内的财政压力。在欧债危机的背景下,两国需要加大政府投资以刺激国内经济增长,金砖国家开发银行正好能够解决资金来源问题。

India put forward to establish"Nuggets national development bank"Mainly comes from its domestic investment infrastructure construction needs and finance the deficiency of the capital,Recently published 2011 ~ 2012 fiscal year India's budget deficit has more than 1.2% of the target,Enough to explain the lack of its domestic funds.South Africa for the offer positive response also comes from domestic financial pressure.In Europe under the background of the credit crisis,The two countries need to increase government investment to stimulate domestic economic growth,Nuggets national development bank was able to solve the capital source problem.

  俄罗斯对于建立金砖国家开发银行态度也是积极的,虽然其国内财政资金并不紧张。一个原因是俄罗斯希望有更多的资金进行国内能源基础设施建设。但是在2012年8月于巴西利亚召开的金砖国家开发银行可行性的专家组讨论会上,俄罗斯却缺席了,原因出乎所有人的意料:承担俄罗斯本国可行性研究的国家科学院尚未完成该项研究。换个角度来看,建立金砖国家开发银行,加快金砖国家之间的金融一体化,对于俄罗斯来说可能正是一个加快国内改革、提高效率的契机。

Russia to establish nuggets national development bank attitude is positive,Although its domestic financial capital is not nervous.One reason is that Russia want more money for domestic energy infrastructure construction.But in August 2012 in Brasilia at the nuggets national development bank feasibility group discussion,Russia is missed,Reasons beyond all expectation:Bear country Russia feasibility study of the national academy of sciences has not yet completed the study.Change a point of view,Establish nuggets national development bank,To speed up the nuggets between countries financial integration,For Russia, perhaps it is a speed up domestic reform/To improve the efficiency of the opportunity.

  金砖国家开发银行一旦建成,对于五国的金融一体化进程是一个里程碑,因为它提供了一个实体的国际组织,日后在解决纷争促进合作方面都具有不可估量的作用。

Nuggets national development bank once built,With five countries of the financial integration process is a milestone,Because it provides a solid international organization,Later in the troubleshooting promote cooperation is an inestimable role.

  当然,即使金砖国家开发银行最后不能建成也不会影响五国在其他领域的进一步合作。金砖国家自2009年首次峰会以来便本着务实精神合作,已经成为新兴市场国家更进一步的合作平台。

Of course,Even if the nuggets national development bank finally can't built also won't affect the five countries in other areas of further cooperation.Nuggets countries since 2009 for the first time since the summit and in line with the spirit of pragmatic cooperation,Has become the emerging market countries further cooperation platform.

  在全球金融危机和发达国家主权债务危机的大背景下,新兴市场国家越来越注重于通过内部的合作开拓经济增长的新空间。

In the global financial crisis and the developed countries sovereign debt crisis of the background,Emerging market countries pay more and more attention to in through the internal cooperation economic growth of new space.

  世贸组织统计数据显示,过去10年中亚洲对欧美出口所占比重明显下降,区内贸易比重大幅上升,逐渐形成了以中国为中心的亚洲供应链。2010年1月1日,完全由新兴经济体组成的全球最大的自由贸易区“中国-东盟自由贸易区”正式启动。之后,自由贸易区内部贸易占总出口的份额显著提高。

The world trade organization (wto) statistical data display,The past 10 years of Europe and Asia export proportion declined obviously,The proportion of the trade to rise sharply,Gradually formed a China as the center of Asian supply chain.On January 1, 2010,Entirely composed of emerging economies, the world's largest free trade zone"China - asean free trade area"Official start.after,Free trade area total internal trade export share improved significantly.

  中国与东盟之间的经济合作还包括更进一步的产业转移与资源整合。宁波纺织外贸“龙头”申洲针织集团有限公司斥资3000多万美元在柬埔寨建立了日产20余万件服装的纺织工厂,产品从该国直接出口美国市场。今年以来,包括互联网快时尚品牌“凡客诚品”在内的一些服装企业均选择将代工厂迁移至拥有大量廉价劳动力的东南亚。

China and asean economic cooperation between the also includes further industrial transfer and resource integration.Ningbo textile foreign trade"leading"ShenZhou knitting group co., LTD. Spend more than 3000 dollars in Cambodia established nissan 20 more than pieces of clothing textile factory,Products from the country's direct export to USA market.Since this year,Including the Internet fast fashion brands"vancl"Some of the clothing enterprise, all choose will foundry migration to have a large number of cheap labor in the southeast Asia.

  在区域经济一体化方面,中国-东盟自由贸易区内即将建成的铁路系统将是下一阶段东亚经济一体化的关键。

In the regional economic integration aspects,China - asean free trade area will be built railway system will be the next phase of the east Asian economic integration key.

  东南亚的大部分铁路都是在殖民地时期修建的,铁路系统破旧不堪、管理混乱,而且资金匮乏。目前绝大部分的货物运输都是由货车和船舶承担,但不断上涨的油价制约着现有的水陆运输。一个完善的铁路系统不仅可以大幅降低货运成本,而且可以将铁路沿线的各个国家与中国联系在一起,使中国和周边邻国将形成一个具有战略意义的经济共同体,成中国和东南亚各国“共赢”的局面。

Most of the southeast Asia railway are built in the colonial period,Railway system worn out/Management confusion,And lack of money.At present most of the transport of goods by truck and ship bear,But rising fuel prices restricts the existing water transport.A perfect railway system can not only greatly reduce the freight cost,And can line each country and China relates in together,Make China and surrounding neighbors will form a strategic economic community,Into China and southeast Asian countries"win-win"situation.

  2012年8月15日,泛亚铁路玉蒙段已全线铺通,该铁路穿越越南、老挝、泰国和新加坡,全长超过2000公里。下一阶段中国计划修建连接昆明至缅甸,并最终通向孟加拉国的铁路,完成之后,不仅为中国经济打开了连接印度洋的出海口,而且会创造一个亚洲市场的巨大联盟。

August 15, 2012,Pan-asia railway jade section has covered all PuTong,The railroad crossing Vietnam/Laos/Thailand and Singapore,Total length more than 2000 kilometers.The next stage China plans to build connection kunming to Burma,And eventually leads to Bangladesh railway,After the completion of,Not only for China's economic opened the connection of the Indian Ocean blooms,And will create a huge league Asian market.

  未来与发达国家的合作也会为新兴经济体提供发展的空间。2010年,在美国布鲁金斯学会全球经济治理会议上,时任世界银行首席经济学家的林毅夫曾在其演讲中提到,如今存在于发达国家之间的是零和博弈,因为他们生产和出口同一类商品;存在于发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的博弈却可能导致“双赢”。因为发达国家是资本品的主要生产者,新兴市场国家投资的增长将刺激对发达国家出口的需求;相反,新兴市场消费的增加以及投资的减少,可能会加剧发达国家出口需求疲软和失业问题。

Future cooperation with developed countries will also provide for emerging economies development space.In 2010,,In the United States brookings institution global economic governance meeting,The world bank's new chief economist Justin yifu Lin worked in the speech,Now in the developed countries is between zero and game,Because of their production and export of the same kind of goods;In the developed countries and emerging market countries the game between but may cause"win-win".Because of the developed countries is one of the main producers of capital goods,Emerging market countries the growth of investment will boost to developed countries export demand;instead,Emerging markets the increase of consumption and investment dropped,Could exacerbate the developed countries export demand weak and unemployment.

  在此基础上,林毅夫提出一个实现全球经济复苏和长期增长的“共赢”方案:创设一个全球经济复苏基金,由硬通货国家及高储备国家支持并由多边开发银行管理,该基金将用于资助新兴市场国家突破瓶颈及提高生产率的投资项目。这些投资将启动新一轮的新兴经济体经济增长。新兴经济体的经济增长启动后将增加对发达国家生产的资本品的需求,从而拉动发达国家经济增长,最后实现全球经济复苏。

On the basis of,Justin yifu Lin put forward a realization global economic recovery and long-term growth"win-win"scheme:To create a global economic recovery fund,By hard currency countries and high reserve national support and the multilateral development bank management,The fund will be used to support emerging market countries to break through the bottleneck and improve the productivity of the investment project.These investments will start a new round of economic growth in emerging economies.Emerging economies start economic growth will increase in the developed countries, and the production of the demand of capital goods,So as to pull the developed countries economic growth,Finally realize the global economic recovery.

  (中国社科院世经政所徐秀军副研究员对本文亦有贡献)

(The Chinese academy of the administration have XuXiuJun associate researcher, this paper also to have contributed to)

  



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