张志斌

ZhangZhiBin

　　随着机械、钢铁等权重板块的再度回落，刚刚摆脱了“黑色星期一”噩梦的A股市场又迎来了下跌，沪深两市股指周二双双下挫，基本跌去了周一的涨幅，两市成交量则继续维持在1000亿元的水平，好事多磨的反弹行情面临再度夭折的可能。

Along with the mechanical/Steel and other weight plates dropped back again,Just get out of the"Black Monday"The nightmare of the A share market ushered in the fall,Shanghai and shenzhen stock index Tuesday in two cities both,Basic fall to rise on Monday,Two city turnover continues to remain at the level of $100 billion,The rallies of true love never did run smooth face the possibility of die again.

　　承接股指周一的反弹，上证指数昨日2060.61点小幅高开，股指在小幅震荡之后即在机械、钢铁、地产等权重板块全面回落的带动下，股指很快开始震荡走低。临近早盘收市，股指更是开始下跌加速，尽管午后股指一度在石油、煤炭、环保等板块带动下小幅反弹，但在金融、地产、钢铁等板块弱势拖累下仍然未能摆脱震荡走低的命运，最后上证指数仅报收2043.65点的全天低位，下跌15.5点，跌幅为0.75%，基本失去了周一的涨幅。深成指报收8243.83点，下跌117.84点，跌幅为1.41%。两市全天合计成交1011亿元，与上一交易日基本持平。

To undertake the bounce of the stock index on Monday,The Shanghai index yesterday 2060.61 points small high open,Stock index in small concussion after that in mechanical/Iron and steel/Real estate and so on comprehensive weight plate along the back,Stock index soon began to shock slump.Near early disc closing,Stock index but also started to decline accelerated,Although afternoon stock index once in the oil/coal/Environmental protection plate driven by small rebound,But in the financial/Real estate/Iron and steel sectors such as weak drag down still cannot get rid of the fate of the shock slump,Finally the Shanghai index at only 2043.65 points lower all day,Down 15.5 points,Down 0.75%,Basic lost Monday's rise.Shenzhen composition index at 8243.83 points,Down 117.84 points,Down 1.41%.Two city all day long aggregate clinch a deal is 101.1 billion yuan,And on a flat trading day.

　　从盘面来看，仅酿酒食品、ST股等少数板块出现逆市上涨，机械、运输物流、钢铁、地产、保险、券商等权重板块则整体跌幅居前，成为股指下行的动力来源。两市全天资金净流出13.02亿元。

From the disk to see,Only wine food/ST shares a few other plate appear inverse city rise,mechanical/Transport logistics/Iron and steel/Real estate/insurance/Brokers and weight plate, the overall decline in the former,Become a stock index descending the source of power.Two city all day long fund net outflow is 1.302 billion yuan.

　　一位私募基金人士表示，从股指的走势来看，在中报公布之后，市场对于上市公司三季度业绩增速仍然存在下调的预期，再加上8月份经济数据将在下周密集公布，目前显然不是股指大举反弹的好时机，等下周数据公布之后，随着市场降准预期的再度回升，到时才可能迎来真正的反弹。

A private equity fund say,From the stock index trend to see,In the center daily news was announced,The market for listed company growth in the third quarter performance there are still cut expectations,Plus August economic data will be released next week intensive,At present is obviously not a good time to stock index massive rebound,Next week after such as data released,Along with the market drop quasi expected rebound again,Then just may have real rebound.

　　东方证券首席策略分析师邵宇等认为，经济仍在减速，但更多的是调控结果，是人为刹车减速过弯，因此，市场期待的政策刺激尤其是流动性的释放始终不达预期。考虑到当前经济增速尚未明显低于潜在增速且通货膨胀或将触底回升，短期内货币政策仍将维持相对谨慎态势，其放松节奏明显加快仍有待于经济增速明显下滑。预计下半年存款准备金率将下调2次，维持每个季度下调1次的判断。

Oriental securities chief strategy analyst ShaoYu and think,The economy is still in the reduction,But more and more are control results,Is artificial brake deceleration corner,therefore,The market expected policy stimulus especially the release of liquidity has not reached the expected.Considering the current economic growth has not yet was significantly lower than the potential growth and inflation or will touch bottom rebound,The short-term monetary policy will remain relatively cautious situation,Its relaxing rhythm speeding up the remains to be a significant slowdown in economic growth.Is expected in the second half of the deposit reserve rate cut will be 2 times,Maintain every quarter cut one judgment.

　　政策刺激的力度可能并不会很大，但下半年仍需投资发力。从市场情绪指标来看，近期市场信心正处于低落的底部区域。目前主要纠结在中短期悲观情绪无法立即证实或者证伪。实体经济低迷及财政刺激力度有限，因此市场信心难以出现明显恢复。市场正处于蛰伏期，一旦经济出现好转迹象或是政策力度加大，悲观情绪有望得到逆转。蛰伏期即将过去，现在更无需悲观。市场仍存在结构性机会。

Policy stimulus efforts may not be large,But the second half of the investment still need to send force.From the market sentiment indicators,Recent market confidence is at the bottom of the depressed area.At present the main entanglements in short-term pessimism could not immediately confirm or falsification.The entity economic downturn and fiscal stimulus efforts limited,So market confidence is difficult to appear markedly.The market is in dormancy period,Once the economy appears better signs or policy efforts to strengthen,Pessimism is expected to be reversed.Dormancy period is the past,Now more need not pessimistic.The market is still exist structural opportunity.

　　大通证券分析师吴?则表示，近期基本面没有重大变动。从技术层面来看，市场近期连续下跌后出现止跌，各项指标开始触底回升，但上行动力并不强烈。且2100点附近再次出现下行缺口以及下行趋势线双重压力，因此短线回抽力度或有限，建议投资者继续谨慎观望。

Chase securities analyst wu?, said,There is no significant change in the near future fundamentals.From the technical level,Market recent continuous decline reason appears,Each index began to sole picks up,But the upward momentum is not strong.Near 2100 and again appear descending gap and descending trend line double pressure,So short term back to the suction strength or limited,Suggest investors continue to cautious wait-and-see.

　　中投证券策略分析师黄君杰等也认为，预计9月海外仍平稳，但9月市场在经济磨底中的反弹力度仍难以乐观。在逆回购主导的流动性管理下，即使9月或10月降准，仍应看作维持银行间流动性紧平衡的举措。随着中报披露完毕，年内盈利弱势难以根本改观，当前基本面环境下至多就是短暂的维稳行情。

Bank securities strategy analyst HuangJunJie also think,September is expected to overseas still smooth,But September market in the economic rebound in the bottom of grinding strength still find it hard to be optimistic.In the reverse repurchase dominated under the liquidity management,Even if September or October drop quasi,Still should be regarded as maintain interbank liquidity tight balance action.With the disclosure of the center daily news,Years profit disadvantaged difficult to fundamental change,The current fundamental environment at most is short d steady market.