业内专家对QE3出台可能带来的影响意见不一

The expert inside course of QE3 issued to the possible impact of different opinions

　　■本报见习记者 徐 科

S the trainee reporter xu family

　　由于世界经济不振，各国或采用同时增加本币供应的办法来维持汇率稳定，针对美国出台新一轮量化宽松政策的预期概率明显增加，有经济分析人士担忧，一旦美国推出QE3，将对作为世界第二大经济体的中国经济“稳增长”行动构成实质性损害，并进一步恶化世界经济的前景。

As the world economic malaise,Countries or use at the same time increase the local currency supply way to maintain exchange rate stability,Aimed at the United States issued a new round of quantitative easing policy expected probability increased significantly,Economic analysts worry,Once the United States launched QE3,Will as the world's second largest economy of China's economy"Steady growth"Action constitute a substantial damage,And further worsen the outlook for the world economy.

　　中国国家开发银行研究院副院长曹红辉认为，短期内，中国的经常项目账户虽然可能好转，但长期来看则将会趋于恶化，而更为根本的是，可能延缓中国经济转型和结构调整的进程，压制产业升级的努力。

China development bank vice President of the institute CaoGongHui think,In the short term,China's current account account although may be improving,But in the long term it will tend to worse,The more fundamental is,China's economy may delay the process of transformation and structure adjustment,Pressing industrial upgrading efforts.

　　对外经济贸易大学金融学院院长丁志杰对记者表示，从上两次QE可见,巨额流动性只会小量进入美国实体经济，其余大部分则会流向全球，令中国等新兴经济体货币急升，通胀加剧，滋生大量资产泡沫。要处理这种情况，中国政府或不得不放宽货币政策，大规模增加政府投资，并刺激资产泡沫破灭，从而造成资本市场动荡。

Foreign economic and trade university financial dean of college DingZhiJie told reporters,From the two QE visible,Huge liquidity will only small amounts into the real economy,Most of the rest will flow to the global,To China and other emerging economies monetary steep rise,Higher inflation,Breeding a large number of asset bubble.To deal with this situation,The Chinese government or have to relax monetary policy,Large-scale increase government investment,And stimulate the asset bubble burst,Resulting in capital market turbulence.

　　也有专家认为，QE3的出台对我国通胀压力的影响将显著小于前两次。中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员肖立晟表示，中国7月PMI已经回落到50以下，表明中国企业的经济活动并不是处于扩张状态，而且目前国际上的大宗商品价格本来就处于低位，QE3引发大宗商品价格的上涨不会对中国经济造成很大压力。

Experts think,QE3 come on stage to our country the influence of inflation pressure will be significantly less than the first two times.The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at XiaoLiSheng assistant researcher said,China's July PMI has dropped to below 50,That Chinese enterprise's economic activities, and not in the extended state,And the international commodity prices were low,QE3 cause commodity prices will not cause a big pressure on China's economy.

　　中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家彭文生认为，外部需求的改善将有利于中国宏观政策在稳增长和控房价之间的平衡。

China international finance co., LTD., chief economist PengWenSheng think,The improvement of the external demand will benefit China's macro policy in steady growth and control the balance between house prices.

　　“基于我国当前增长动能疲弱，通胀压力温和，QE3不会导致国内货币政策收紧，但取决于QE3的规模和国际市场的反应，有可能降低国内货币政策放松的节奏和力度。“彭文生强调，QE3的推出总体有利于我国当前宏观调控的有效性。就房地产市场而言，QE3带来的刺激，应该比国内货币政策主动放松的影响小。

"Based on the current weak growth kinetic energy,Mild inflation pressure,QE3 will not lead to domestic monetary policy tightening,But depends on the size of the QE3 international market reaction,May reduce domestic monetary policy relaxation rhythm and strength."PengWenSheng emphasize,QE3 launch overall is advantageous to our country current the effectiveness of the macroeconomic regulation and control.Just for the real estate market,QE3 bring stimulation,Should be better than domestic monetary policy active relaxation effect is small.

　　QE3虽未正式推出，但是对美国新一轮经济刺激政策将给中国经济造成的影响，仍需早做应对准备。

QE3 though not officially launched,But for the United States a new round of economic stimulus policy will give the impact of China's economy,Still need to prepare for early.