刘宝强

LiuBaoJiang

　　在9月第一个交易日，地产板块大涨后，周二沪深股指缩量震荡回调，黑色金属、机械设备和房地产、水泥等板块领跌，其中地产板块下跌1.47%，水泥建材板块下跌1.48%，都属于当日下跌板块前五名之中。有地产分析师对《第一财经日报》记者表示：“市场人气太弱，地产板块下半年很难涨价。”

In September the first trading day,Real estate plate after rose,Shanghai and shenzhen stock index on Tuesday SuLiang concussion callback,The black metal/Mechanical equipment and real estate/Cement plate brought down,The real estate plate fell 1.47%,Cement building materials plate fell 1.48%,All belong to the top five in fall plate.A real estate analysts to[The first financial daily]reporters:"Market popularity is too weak,The second half of real estate plate is difficult to rise in price."

　　9月3日，受到国税总局房产税扩容方案尚未最终确定等利好消息影响，房地产板块指数出现难得的反弹，表现强势，招保万金涨幅都在3%以上，保障房概念股强势上行，合肥城建(002208,股吧)（002208.SZ）、首开股份(600376,股吧)（600376.SH）等保障房概念股大幅上涨。而昨日，地产水泥板块则迅速下跌。

September 3,By the national tax administration housing property tax flash scheme has not been finally determined and influence of the good news,Real estate plate index appear rare rebound,Performance strong,Called the gold or are more than 3%,Security room concept stock strong upward,Hefei city building(002208,guba)(002208 SZ)/Shares the first to open the(600376,guba)(600376. SH)Concerning the room concept stock rises considerably.yesterday,Real estate cement plate is falling fast.

　　另一方面，从实体经济看，今年8月，全国前十大城市的成交套数除上海外，同比全部增长，环比下降的城市多于增加的城市。整体来看，虽然8月份的成交量已略显疲态，但仍然好于去年同期的水平，价格方面则依然较为稳定。

On the other hand,See from the real economy,August,The national top ten cities to clinch a deal the number sets besides overseas,Year-on-year growth all,Link down city more than increase city.The whole,Although August volume has started slightly,But still better than the same period last year level,The price is still relatively stable.

　　从目前券商看，几乎集体看好地产9月的反弹行情。但中金分析师认为，重点城市9月销售量难以超越6月份高点，对于地产股，分析师建议，选择业绩确定的公司配置，短期也可以参与受益改善型需求释放、超跌反弹型机会的公司组合。

From the current brokers to see,Almost collective value real estate September rallies.But zhongjin analysts say,Major cities to September sales beyond 6 month high,For property counters were,Analysts suggest,Choose performance certain company configuration,Short-term can also participate in benefit to improve type demand release/Ultra fall type rebound opportunities of the corporation combination.

　　由于以往9月和10月是地产销售的黄金时节，但是今年的9、10月份能否给市场一个惊喜，存在不同说法，莫尼塔研究公司通过对地产商的草根调研认为，9月楼市量价齐升依然是大概率事件。但是北京一位私募对记者表示，上半年的地产反弹已经充分释放了市场购买力，从北京看，目前房价跟半个月前比，交易和价格都开始回落，金九银十，成为铜九铁十也属正常。

Owing to the September and October is the real estate sales of gold time,But this year's nine/In October, can you give the market a surprise,Exist different ways,Monie tower research company through the land agent grassroots research think,September the property market JiSheng volume and price is still a big probability event.But Beijing is a private told reporters,In the first half of the real estate rebound has been released in full the market purchasing power,From Beijing to see,The current price than with half a month ago,Trade and price began to fall,Gold nine silver ten,Become copper nine iron ten are normal.

　　对于昨日的地产水泥板块大跌，北京一位券商分析师对记者表示，当前的经济形势太差，政府不会进一步打压楼市，导致房产税短期出台政策的动机不足，从这个角度他看好地产，但整个大盘继续保持下跌势态，这种情况下，地产股独善其身太难。国泰君安分析师认为，通过房地产行业基本面暨宏观经济对比：目前远差于2009年底，部分指标差于2008年，政策不变前提下,销量难持续爆发，抑制房价上涨。开发商资金链仍偏紧张，预期不稳定使得普遍涨价意愿低。getty图 制图/郑勤韬

For yesterday's real estate cement plate crash,Beijing a securities analyst told reporters,The current poor economic situation,The government would not to further crack down on the property market,Lead to housing property tax short-term policy motive shortage,From this point of view he valued real estate,But the whole market down trend to continue,This case,With property possess too hard.Guotai junan analyst think,Through the real estate industry fundamentals and macro economic contrast:At present far difference at the end of 2009,Part of the index error in 2008,Policy unchanged premise,The outbreak of sales difficult,Inhibition rising house prices.Developer fund chain still partial tension,Expectations are not stable makes common to rise in price low.Getty diagram drawing/ZhengQin hide one's