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卖空的国际历史和未来--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-09-05
在最近上映的《蝙蝠侠前传3:黑暗骑士崛起》中,大反派班恩攻击了高谭市的证券交易所,利用布鲁斯(即蝙蝠侠)的指纹授权交易了后者手上所持的韦恩企业股票,导致布鲁斯破产,这里面采用的手段就是卖空。
In the recently released[Batman prequel 3:Dark knight rise]in,The antagonist Ben attacked Gotham stock exchange,Use of Bruce(Namely batman)Fingerprint authorize the transaction the hands have Wayne enterprise stock,Lead to Bruce bankruptcy,It used means is short.
卖空的历史比华尔街的历史还要长,1609年荷兰商人Isaac Le Maire认为荷兰东印度公司股票价格被高估,于是卖空了该公司股票,一年后该公司股票下跌12%,Isaac Le Maire因此获利颇丰。这就是现代卖空机制的起源。
The history of the short than Wall Street's history and long,In 1609 Dutch businessman Isaac Le Maire think the Dutch east India company stock price overvalued,So short selling the company stock,A year later the company's shares fell 12%,Isaac Le Maire so a profitable.This is the origin of the modern short selling mechanism.
卖空的历史长河 Short history
在漫长的历史长河中,卖空似乎总与崩溃、末日、阴谋操纵等关键词相联系。不论是1637年荷兰郁金香市场的崩溃,1929年美国经济大萧条、1997年的东南亚经济危机,还是2008年开始至今尚未结束的全球金融危机,人们习惯性地将矛头指向利用市场下跌而获利的空头机构。道理很简单,卖空的本质即从他人的亏损中获利。
In the long history of long,Short seems to always and collapse/end/Plot control and associated keywords.Whether 1637 Dutch tulip market crash,In 1929 the United States economic depression/1997 years of the economic crisis of southeast Asia,Or have not yet started in 2008 at the end of the global financial crisis,People chronically taking aim at the market fall by a bear mechanism.Reason is very simple,Short selling is the essence of from others in the loss of profit.
根据国际上较为通用的定义,卖空是指“任何将出售者不拥有的证券出售或任何由出售者通过借入证券并通过自己账户进行的证券出售”。实际上,从各国证券监管机构的行为看,都不认为卖空违背规则,反而认为这项交易活动能够促进证券市场效率,提高市场流动性。
According to the definition of more common,Short refers to"Any will sellers do not have any securities for sale or by sellers through the borrowed securities and through his account securities sold".In fact,From all the countries securities regulators behavior to see,All don't think short against the rules,Instead, think the trading activities to promote the efficiency of securities market,Increase market liquidity.
2001年,当一个卖空机构对美国安然公司非正常的财务程序提出质疑时,当时的安然首席运营官杰弗里·斯基林的回答是:“嗯,谢谢,谢谢关注……卑鄙的家伙!”最终的事实证明,卖空机构对安然的怀疑并非空穴来风,安然通过一系列假账构筑的帝国最终一夜间坍塌。在这个过程中,正是卖空机制为揭发安然内幕提供了激励,促进其股价从2001年初的80美元回归到应有的价格。
In 2001,,When a short selling mechanism for American enron abnormal financial program when questioned,The enron's chief operating officer Jeffrey skilling answer is:"well,thank you,Thank you for attention...Mean guy!"The facts prove,Short selling mechanism for enron's doubt reinforces,Through a series of false accounts in constructing empire finally collapsed overnight.In this process,It is oversold mechanism for disclosure enron insider provides incentive,Promote its share price from 2001 at the beginning of the year to us $80 due to return to the price.
卖空者的逻辑 Short seller logic
卖空者是那些在1929年持怀疑态度的人们当财富和机会正在向刚从一战中获胜的美国人敞开自己吝啬的大门,“炫耀性消费”成为时代潮流。卖空者看到的是以1928年农产品价格下跌为起点的农业萎缩,是持续性的借款终使美国人个人债务日增,消费热潮即将结束。
Short seller are those who in 1929 sceptical people when wealth and opportunity is to just win from the first world war the americans opened the door of his stingy,"Conspicuous consumption"Become the trend of The Times.Short seller see is 1928 agricultural prices fell as the starting point for the agricultural atrophy,It is durative borrowing will make American individual growing debt,Consumption boom is coming to an end.
卖空者是那些在2008年初,当证券分析师宣传着房地产要不停上涨的时候持反对意见的人们他们开着车四处逛,看到在火热借贷市场的背后,荒置的房屋和越来越多的待售广告招牌。
Short seller is that those who are in early 2008,When securities analysts propaganda the real estate will keep rising time opposition people they drove around everywhere,See the lending market hot behind,HuangZhi houses and more and more advertising signs for sale.
卖空可以促进价值发现,促进不同方向信息在市场流通,使资产价格在上升途中受到制约,避免过度膨胀引发进一步泡沫和危机,从而提高市场的公平和效率。一些著名的投资者,即便不是空头,也认为卖空的意义非常重要,比如巴菲特认为,卖空者在发现审计漏洞以及其他公司问题方面具有重要作用。
Short selling can promote the value found,Promote the different direction information in the market circulation,Make asset prices on the rise on the way be restricted,Avoid excessive expansion trigger further foam and crisis,So as to improve the market fairness and efficiency.Some famous investors,Even if not bear,Also think the significance of short selling is very important,Such as buffett think,Short seller in found audit loopholes and other problems in company plays an important role.
但不可否认的是,在市场转折期,卖空很容易成为投机者放大杠杆操纵市场、进行巨额投机活动的手段,从而加剧市场动荡,造成恐慌心理。1992年,索罗斯筹集100亿美元资金狙击英镑,造成欧洲货币巨幅震荡,并从中获利20亿英镑。而在1997年东南亚金融危机、2008年美国次贷危机、2012年中国概念股危机中,空头对市场动荡的负面作用也在显现。
But it is undeniable,In the market turning period,Short selling is easy to become speculators amplification lever market manipulation/Make huge speculative activity means,Adding to the market turbulence,Panic psychological.In 1992,,Soros raise $10 billion sniper pounds,Giant shock caused by the European currency,And benefit from 2 billion pounds.In 1997 southeast Asian financial crisis/In 2008 the United States subprime mortgage crisis/In 2012, the Chinese concept stock crisis,Bear market turbulence on the negative effects are also revealed.
2009年英国金融服务局公布的卖空研究报告称,“我们认为,对卖空交易的任何直接限制都无法得到完全合理的解释。但是,卖空交易可能引起极端市场风险,我们将对市场保持紧密关注,必要时采取包括限制交易在内的紧急措施。”
In 2009, Britain's financial services authority published short research report says,"We think,For the short selling any direct limit can be perfectly reasonable explanation.but,Short selling may cause extreme market risk,We will keep close attention to market,When necessary, including taking trade restrictions emergency measures."
然而历史告诉我们,各国对卖空的限制似乎无助于缓解经济危机。2008年金融危机后,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)禁止任何针对“两房”和其他19家金融机构的股票卖空。在雷曼兄弟倒闭4天后,SEC将限制范围扩大到几乎所有金融机构。事后的研究显示,并没有证据表明美国市场的卖空禁令确实阻止了股价下跌。有经济学家认为,卖空禁令的效果是中性的。而且,随着流动性趋于枯竭,卖空禁令损害了市场机制。
Yet history tells us,All countries to the short limit seems to not ease the economic crisis.After the financial crisis in 2008,The United States securities and exchange commission(SEC)To prohibit any"Two room"And other 19 financial institutions stock short selling.In the lehman brothers collapse four days later,SEC will limit expanded to almost all financial institutions.Ex post facto study shows,There is no evidence that the market of the ban on short selling has, indeed, kept the stock prices.Some economists think,The effect of the ban on short selling is neutral.and,As liquidity tends to dry up,Short ban damage the market mechanism.
卖空者到底是贪婪的末日操纵者,还是在本质上维护了市场的清洁和效率,不同的利益主体有着不同的判断。但显然,尽管已有四百余年的历史,围绕卖空的道德争议在未来还会持续。
Short seller exactly is greed end manipulator,Or in essence maintain the market clean and efficiency,Different interest subjects have different judgement.But obviously,Although more than four hundred years of history,Around the short moral dispute in the future is likely to continue.
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