金证券记者 江芬芬

Gold securities JiangFenFen reporters

　　受地缘政治、供应担忧等因素影响，自8月10日国内油价上调后，国际油价不改上升势头，昨日美国原油攀升至96美元附近，重新回到5月中旬的水平。卓创资讯分析师陈晴对《金证券》记者表示,“9月7日收盘三地原油变化率将达到8.5%以上，加上满足22个工作日的调价规定，今日成品油上调窗口将被打开。”

By geopolitical/The impact of factors such as the supply concerns,Since August 10 domestic oil prices after raised,International oil prices do not change up momentum,Yesterday the United States of crude oil near climbed to $96,Return to the level of mid-may.Zhuo and information ChenQing analysts to[Gold securities]reporters,"On September 7, closing three crude oil rate will reach more than 8.5%,Plus meet 22 days of price adjustment provisions,Today raised the oil window will be open."

　　油价上调几成定局 Oil prices rise a few to stay

　　目前国内油价调整机制是：当国际市场相关油种连续22个工作日平均价格变化超过4%时，我国发改委会相应调整国内成品油价格。三地原油中的“三地”是指布伦特、迪拜以及辛塔。

At present domestic oil price adjustment mechanism is:When the international market related oil kind of continuous 22 days average price changes more than 4%,Our country development and reform commission will be corresponding adjustment domestic prices of refined petroleum products.Three places in the crude oil"three"Refers to brent/Dubai and symplectic tower.

　　卓创数据显示，截至9月5日收盘，三地原油变化率达到8.23%，继续高位攀升。陈晴预测，若近期国际油价保持震荡态势，9月7日收盘三地原油变化率将达到8.5%以上，加上满足22个工作日的调价规定，今日成品油上调窗口将被打开。

Zhuo and data display,By September 5, closing,Three crude oil rate reached 8.23%,Continue to rise high.ChenQing prediction,If recent international oil prices remain concussion situation,On September 7, closing three crude oil rate will reach more than 8.5%,Plus meet 22 days of price adjustment provisions,Today raised the oil window will be open.

　　对于调价的时间，中宇资讯预计，调价窗口恰逢周末，发改委可能推迟至9月11日,即下周二凌晨调价可能性比较大，但也不排除在本周六凌晨调价的可能性。

For price adjustment time,ZhongYu information is expected to,Price adjustment window coincides weekend,Development and reform commission may be delayed to September 11,,That is next Tuesday morning price adjustment possibility is big,But also don't exclude the possibility of price adjustment on Saturday morning.

　　至于调价幅度，各机构的预测有所不同，卓创资讯预测，此次成品油调价幅度可能在450元/吨左右，折合93#汽油0.35元/升，0#柴油0.38元/升。中宇资讯则认为，成品油上调参考幅度为510元/吨，折合90#汽油0.37元/升，93#汽油0.39元/升，0#柴油0.43元/升。

As for the price adjustment range,The mechanism of different prediction,Zhuo and information prediction,The refined oil price adjustment range may be in 450 yuan/tons,Reduced 93 # gasoline 0.35 yuan/liter,0 # diesel 0.38 yuan/liter.ZhongYu information is considered,Product raised reference range for 510 yuan/ton,Reduced 90 # gasoline 0.37 yuan/liter,93 # gasoline 0.39 yuan/liter,0 # diesel 0.43 yuan/liter.

　　今年国内成品油价格调动频繁，仅仅前8个月已经经历了“三涨三降”。以汽油为例，2月上涨了300元/吨，3月上涨了600元/吨，5月下降了330元/吨，6月下降了530元/吨，7月下降了420元/吨，8月上涨了390元/吨。8月调价之后的价格还是比今年1月贵了10元/吨，如果再加上此次的450元/吨-500元/吨上调幅度，那么9月的成品油价格比今年1月的价格高出了460元/吨-510元/吨。

This year the domestic refined oil prices to mobilize frequently,Only in the first eight months have experienced"Three up three drop".With gasoline, for example,February rose 300 yuan/ton,March rose 600 yuan/ton,May fell by 330 yuan/ton,June dropped by 530 yuan/ton,July down 420 yuan/ton,August rose 390 yuan/ton.August price adjustment after the price is more than this year January expensive 10 yuan/ton,If plus the 450 yuan/tons - 500 yuan/ton increase amplitude,Then the refined oil price on September January the price is higher than 460 yuan/tons - 510 yuan/ton.

　　疯狂过后暂入冷清 After the crazy temporary into cold and cheerless

　　陈晴介绍，随着本周国内成品油市场涨价预期白热化，市场也一改谨慎观望的态势，交投转好，下游贸易商争取在调价前进行最后的疯狂进购，主营公司也在调价前有一定的赶量行为。华东某省中石化公司透露，“近几日连续销售量在1万吨/日以上，截至9月5日，已经完成全月任务的30%左右。”不过在任务量增长基础上，主营单位仍要以销售利润为主，本周以来大部分地区仍旧对资源有所控制，尤其是柴油资源控销范围和力度较大。目前国内的柴油价格也基本是批零同价，仅个别地区出现超限价销售的行径。

ChenQing introduced,Along with the domestic refined oil market prices this week expected white-hot,The market also change cautious wait-and-see posture,Trading turned for the better,Downstream traders for the price adjustment before the final crazy into purchase,The main company also in price adjustment before a certain drive and volume behavior.East China province sinopec company revealed,"Recent days continuous sales in more than 10000 tons/day,By September 5,,Have finished the whole month task of about 30%."But in task based on quantity growth,The main unit is still in sales profit is given priority to,Since this week most parts of resources still have control,Especially diesel oil resources control pin scope and larger efforts.At present domestic diesel prices also strenghten basic is zero,Only individual areas appear ultra limit sales ways.

　　疯狂过后，或将归于平淡。卓创资讯预计，调价后成品油市场将进入库存消化阶段，市场行情将暂入冷清。不过后期随着柴油需求渐入旺季，市场库存消化的时间将大为缩短，预计9月底，市场有望重新进入补库阶段。另外，调价后主营公司将暂时不会放开对资源的控制，仍以控销的销售策略来支撑价格的高位，待市场重新进入补库阶段后，资源或将有所放松，不过随着下游进购的增多，需求或将支撑汽柴价格继续高位攀升。

After crazy,Or will be attributable to the plain.Zhuo and is expected to information,After the price adjustment refined oil market will enter inventory digestion phase,Market will be temporary into cold and cheerless.But later as diesel demand and coming into the season,Market inventory digestion time will shorten greatly,Is expected by the end of September,Market is expected to enter the stage for library.In addition,After the price adjustment main company will not for a while to let go of the control of resources,Still control pin sales strategy to support the high price,Stay back into the market for library phase,Resources or to relax,But with the increase of downstream into purchase,Demand or will support steam fuel prices continue to rise high.

　　对此，中国石油(601857,股吧)证券部内部人士向《金证券》记者表示，“公司成品油生产和零售计划相对固定，不会轻易随着油价波动而调整，所谓的控销应该很少。连续油价上涨对公司业绩有正面影响，但不会很大。”

this,China petroleum(601857,guba)Bond department internal to the public[Gold securities]reporters,"The company product oil production and retail plan relatively fixed,Not easily along with the oil price fluctuation and adjustment,The so-called control pin should be few.Continuous rising oil prices of the company's performance has positive influence,But not a."

　　值得一提的是，8月底中海油销售江苏有限公司在南京正式挂牌成立，南京进入“三桶油”时代。不过业内人士普遍认为，由于中海油着力于批发市场，对南京成品油销售市场影响有限。、

Be worth what carry is,The end of August cnooc sales jiangsu co., LTD. Was formally founded in nanjing,Nanjing into"Three barrels of oil"age.But the personage inside course of study is generally accepted that,Because of cnooc focus on wholesale market,Product sales market in nanjing has limited impact./

　　“涨声”渐浓，近两日南京部分加油站已出现排队“抢”油的车主。一些车商则将此作为促销契机，“油价将两连涨，我们加大了低排量节油车型的促销力度。”

"Up sound"Gradually thick,Nearly two days nanjing part of the gas station has appeared queuing"rob"Oil owner.Some of the dealer will this as a promotion opportunity,"Oil prices will rise even two,We increased the low displacement fuel-efficient car promotional efforts."