比尔·格罗斯／文 本刊记者 石伟/译

Bill gross/text this reporter ShiWei/translation

　　我们整体融资型的货币体系是以银行为主，但保险公司、投资管理公司以及对冲基金也是典型模式，都是基于可接受的运营水平及其盈利预期。

Our overall financing type of monetary system is mainly bank,But the insurance company/Investment management companies and hedge funds is typical model,Based on the acceptable operation level and earnings expectations.

　　在新常态经济中，我们应该谨慎，并且谨记历史回报率只是“历史”。

In the new normal economy,We should be careful,And remember that historical returns only"history".

　　花旗集团前任CEO查克·普林斯有一句现在看来臭名昭著的言论：“只要音乐还在继续，你就得起来并继续跳舞。”我建议大家不要仅从字面意义对他进行解读，而应从他作为全球最大银行之一的前任CEO角度理解他的言行，并且理解全球金融体系的150万亿美元资金应该投向何方，包括构成目前所谓全球金融体系的主权国家、机构和个人投资者。

Citigroup former CEO chuck · tayshaun prince has a now notorious speech:"As long as the music continues,You have to get up and continue to dance."I suggest you do not only from literal meaning to reading,And should he as the world's largest bank, one of the former CEO Angle to understand his words and deeds,And understand the global financial system should be $150 trillion to where you've been,Including composition at present the so-called global financial system of national sovereignty/Institutions and individual investors.

　　太多债务 Too much debt

　　当然，信贷是全球经济的润滑剂。虽然过去几个世纪中出现了诸如爱迪生、贝尔和乔布斯这样伟大的人物，但是如果易货贸易仍然是普遍的商业模式，我们就不会发展到今天的水平。虽然现金是交换媒介和声名狼藉的价值储存工具，但也不能支撑庞大经济体的真实GDP增速每年达到3%-4%，除非借款人和储蓄人愿意交换未来的承诺，即利用信贷。我曾经数次提到一个卡通形象Wimpy，它的言论非常贴切：“我很高兴在未来向您支付，以便在今天获得一个汉堡。”因此，麦当劳所销售的汉堡数量从100万增加到了5000亿，虽然Wimpy及其同类最终会成为这个游戏的输家，但他们却很高兴进行这种交换。而且，要点在于我们的现代金融体系杠杆程度很高、也很脆弱，并且已经促进了经济繁荣并成为其保持生产效率的一个组成部分。如果没有这种体系，全球经济的发展水平将与20世纪初相当。但是，为了促进经济发展并事实上形成可持续的良好关系，借款人和贷款人需要肥沃的土壤，即某种能够促使强壮骨骼发育并使得贷款人和借款人能够成长的“信贷”培养皿。不幸的是，目前并不具备这样的土壤。

Of course,Credit is the global economy lubricant.Although the past few centuries appeared such as Edison/Bell and jobs so great man,But if the barter trade is still common business model,We won't development to today's levels.Although cash is medium of exchange and the infamous value stored tool,But it cannot support large economies of real GDP growth of 3% - 4% a year,Unless the borrower and saving people are willing to exchange future promise,Is using credit.I've mentioned several times a cartoon image Wimpy,It is very appropriate comments:"I am very happy in the future to pay to you,In order to obtain a Hamburg today."therefore,McDonald's the sales of Hamburg quantity increased from 1 million to 500 billion,Although Wimpy and its will eventually become the game loser,But they were happy for this kind of exchange.and,The point is to our modern financial system lever degree is very high/Is also very fragile,And has promoted the economic prosperity and become its keep production efficiency of a part.If there is no this kind of system,The global economy development level and at the beginning of the 20th century is quite.but,In order to promote the sustainable economic development and in fact to form the good relationship,The borrower and the lender need fertile soil,That is something that prompted strong bone development and makes the loan and the borrower to growth"credit"Petri dishes.unfortunately,At present does not have such soil.

　　对于当前全球借款人高企的杠杆水平来说，大腹便便的Wimpy是非常明显的写照。过多的债务导致人们被迫节食并去杠杆化，这个过程自2008年雷曼破产之后就一直在进行。不仅家庭，包括金融机构以及很多主权国家在内，都已经降低了债务水平，而这反过来导致经济增速较慢，一些国家甚至接近衰退或者萧条。借款人的健康水平不佳，如果将历史作为指导，那么借款人的重新修复可能旷日持久：七年的增肥之后就是七年的减肥，也许更长。

For the current global borrowers high lever for level,Potbellied Wimpy is very obvious portraiture.Too much debt, cause people are forced to go on a diet and de-leveraging,This process since 2008 lehman bankruptcy have been in progress since.Not only family,Including financial institutions and a lot of sovereign states,,Have reduced the level of debt,This in turn leads to economic growth is relatively slow,Some countries even close to recession or depression.The borrower's health level is not good,If the history as a guide,So the borrower to repair may be prolonged:Seven years after add fertilizer is seven years of weight loss,Maybe longer.

　　太少回报 Too little return

　　然而，贷款人查克·普林斯所谓的健康状况并非显而易见。当然，银行的资产负债表和全体债权人需要调低资产、增加权益，或者同时进行，这种做法本身就不利于经济增长。此外，贷款人目前的回报、收益都不足，这一点非常危险，并且可能威胁未来几年的额外放贷。

however,The lender chuck · tayshaun prince so-called health is not obvious.Of course,Banks' balance sheets and the creditor need to turn down assets/Increase rights,Or simultaneously,This kind of practice itself against economic growth.In addition,The lender the return/Earnings are not,It is very dangerous,And may threaten the future years of additional lending.

　　贷款人不会轻易地向过度债务缠身的借款人放贷，这一点非常明确，同时也不会在收益率以及投资回报非常低时签发支票，因为这样做不能对传统商业模式的管理费用做出补偿，这也是查克·普林斯的舞蹈韵律从快步转向华尔兹的原因。如果收益率过低，并且可接受的风险息差很窄，那么银行资产负债表中最上面的一项利息收入就会不断下降，因此放贷就会存在风险。从历史上来看，大部分管理费用都是租金、工资、养老金以及健康保险金，如果管理费用过高，就会迫使金融和贷款机构采取如下两种措施中的一种：为了覆盖成本而提高杠杆水平，或者放缓甚至削减贷款以保存权益和最终生存下去。考虑到2008年金融危机中的情景以及监管程度的随后强化，提高杠杆水平实际上很难。而且，我们所看到的是贷款机构开始跳起了华尔兹，银行、保险公司和投资管理公司未能从此前杠杆水平较高的时期受益。在这个过程中，它们解雇员工，而不是招聘新的雇员；关闭分行或者ATM取款机，就像美国银行最近所做的那样；并最终降低贷款比率或者信贷增速，而正是这种做法使得全球经济在过去的一个世纪中步履蹒跚。

The lender will not easily to excessive debt-ridden borrower lending,It is very clear,At the same time also won't in the rate of return and return on investment is very low cheque,Because do not to the traditional business model of management expenses to make compensation,This is also chuck · tayshaun prince dance rhythm from the travel to the cause of the waltz.If the rate of return is too low,And acceptable risk spreads is very narrow,So the bank balance sheet on top of a interest income will continue to drop,So lending will risk.Historically,Most of the management expenses are rent/wage/The pension and health insurance gold,If the management cost is too high,Will force the financial and credit institutions adopt the following two measures of a:In order to cover costs and improve the lever level,Slow or even cut loans to save rights and interests and eventually survive.Considering the situation of the financial crisis in 2008 and the regulation as well as degree of then strengthen,In fact it is difficult to improve the lever level.and,What we see is lending institutions began to jump the waltz,The bank/Insurance companies and investment management company failed to high levels of leverage from previous period benefit.In this process,They fired employee,Instead of recruiting new employees;Close the branch or ATM,Like the American bank recently do;And eventually reduce the loan ratio or credit growth,And it is this kind of practice made the global economy in the past century teeter.

　　如果舞蹈的韵律已经放缓，原因不是舞伴过于臃肿，而是资金的价格（其形式包括真实利率、风险息差）过低。如果信贷的价格导致运营的杠杆/风险水平不再能够盈利，那么这种体系就会停滞，甚至最终崩溃。

If the rhythm of the dance has slowed,The reason is not partner are bloated,But the price of capital(The form including the real interest rate/Risk spreads)Too low.If the price of credit to operation lever/risk level no longer able to profit,So this system will stagnation,Even eventually collapse.

　　对于目前的灾难来说，也许我们应该责备美联储以及其他国家的央行。根据历史模型，接近于零的利率会不可避免并无情地导致实体经济复苏出现动荡。如果收益率接近于零，傻子都会借款并以看起来能够获利的息差重新放贷。房屋所有者也会以3.5%的利率借入30年期按揭贷款，从而匹配甚至降低当前的租金支付。当然，他们不会，并不是因为上面所提及的数字。银行监管风险标准等结构性障碍，以及房屋所有者对亏钱的担心，使得上述模型不再奏效。央行认为，无止境的量化宽松和长期再融资计划必将产生预期的结果。

For the current for disaster,Maybe we should blame the fed and other central Banks.According to the historical model,Close to zero interest rates would inevitably and relentlessly in solid economic recovery turmoil.If the rate of return is close to zero,Fool will be borrowing and to look to make a profit of spreads to lending.Homeowners will also at 3.5% interest borrowed a 30-year mortgage loans,Thus matching and even reduce the current rental payment.Of course,They won't,Not because the number of mentioned above.Bank regulatory risk standard etc structural obstacles,And homeowners to worry about losing money,Make the above model no longer work.The central bank think,Endless quantitative easing and long-term refinancing plan will produce the desired results.

　　策略建议 advice

　　在上个月的“投资展望”中，我曾经指出“债券和股票的回报将会下降”。目前，投资级别的债券收益率只有1.75%，而根据“债券与股票回报率从数学上来说至少部分相关”的假设，股票的回报率还能好到哪儿去吗？而且，婴儿潮时期出生的美国人由于其自身的原因已经多年对金融市场心灰意冷了，对此人们又能有什么异议呢？很明显，股票市场交易已经由机器代替，HAL规则在股票交易所占据统治地位并且结果很差，对此人们又能提出什么样的不同意见呢？当然，一些人过去曾经提出过异议，并且有些人还将继续持有反对意见。然而，图2展示了大众的观点，而不是权威的意见。虽然我预测股票会跑赢债券，但只有时间才能决定谁是正确和错误的。

In the last month of"Investment prospects"in,I once pointed out that"Bond and stock returns will be reduced".At present,Investment grade bonds yield only 1.75%,According to"Both bond and stock returns from mathematics, at least in part, related"hypothesis,The returns on the stock can also good where to go?and,Baby boomers born americans because of its reason has many years of financial market lost,This people and can have what objection?obviously,The stock market has been by machines,HAL rules in the stock exchange dominant and results is very poor,This people and puts forward what kind of different opinion?Of course,Some people used to raised objections,And some people will continue to hold objections.however,Figure 2 shows the public view,Rather than punditry.Although I predict the stock will run win bonds,But only time can decide who is right and wrong.

　垂死的旧常态 The dying old normal

　　大部分个人投资者没有时间、也没有其他选择，只能购买收益率只有0.1%的货币市场基金或者CD。投资者看起来必须学会一种新的舞蹈，以适应不断下降的投资回报规模。

Most individual investors have no time/Have no other choice,Can only buy yields only 0.1% of the money market fund or CD.Investors look must learn to a new dance,To adapt to falling return of investment scale.

　　如果我是一名个人投资者，我会这样做：根据年龄平衡自己的资产组合。如果你非常年轻，就持有较多的股票；如果你已经60多岁，就持有较多的债券，就像我这样。如果你选择一名投资顾问、共同基金或者ETF，一定要确保将费用降到最低。毕竟，如果总体回报率平均每年只有3%-4%，你怎么能负担得起100个基点的费用呢？你不能，所以一定要谨慎。信贷扩张并导致投资组合回报率达到两位数的时代已经一去不复返了，我们现在所面临的是通胀时代，对于股票和债券等证券价格来说，这通常是一种不利因素，而非有利因素。

If I were a individual investors,I will do so:According to age balance their own portfolio.If you are very young,Will hold more stock;If you have more than 60 years old,Will hold more bonds,Just like me.If you choose an investment consultant/A mutual fund or ETF,Must ensure that will cost to a minimum.After all,If the overall rate of return an annual average of only 3% - 4%,How can you afford the cost of 100 basis points?You can't,So be sure to care.Credit expansion and lead to return on investment portfolio to achieve double-digit time has gone,We are now facing is inflation era,For stocks and bonds, and other securities for the price,This is often a disadvantage factors,Rather than favorable factors.

　　如果你是一家机构，除了意识到以上情况之外，还需要认识到股票和债券的较高回报率通常出现在实现较高增速的国家和经济体。而且，不要相信任何国家永远能够保持“干净的脏衬衫”，包括美国，我们前途叵测，在下个月的“投资展望”中我会进行更详细的论述。在此之前，与查克·普林斯及其舞伴Wimpy一样，你不应该继续跳舞，那时全球经济可能不再是“摇摆舞”或者快步，因为我们基于信贷的金融体系已经过于臃肿、利率已经太低，我们的舞步必须是一种新的、更慢的韵律，但是查克在某个方面是对的：与站在一边做个旁观者相比，待在舞厅里更好。

If you are a mechanism,In addition to the above situation consciousness outside,Also need to realize that the stocks and bonds of higher returns are usually in the realization of higher growth countries and economies.and,Don't believe that any country can keep forever"Clean the dirty shirt",Including the United States,Our future among,The next month"Investment prospects"I will make more detailed discussion.Before this,And chuck · tayshaun prince and its partner as Wimpy,You should not continue to dance,Then the global economy may no longer be"swing"Or travel,Because our financial system based on credit has been too woolly/Low interest rates have been,Our steps must be a kind of new/More slow rhythm,But chuck in some way is right:And be on the other side do a bystander compared,Stay in the ballroom is better.