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构筑国家资产负债表 量化政府债务杠杆率--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-09-11

  中国社科院近日发布的《中国国家资产负债表分析》显示,按宽口径匡算2010年中国主权资产净值69.6万亿元,而除国土资源性和行政事业单位等变相能力差的资产,狭义口径的中国主权资产净值也达20万亿元左右。

By the Chinese academy of social sciences recently released[China's national balance sheet analysis]display,According to the wide aperture density in 2010 China's sovereignty net asset value 69.6 trillion yuan,And in addition to land resource and administrative institutions, etc in disguised form the poor ability of assets,Special caliber Chinese sovereignty net asset value is more than 20 trillion yuan.

  随着欧债危机不断蔓延和深化,政府资产负债表的可持续性备受金融市场关注,中国巨额的地方债务一度也令市场担忧其风险。而相比欧美日等发达国家主权资产普遍为负,即便窄口径匡算下的中国主权资产20万亿元净值,也透射出中国政府稳健的资产负债结构。

With the debt crisis spreads and deepening,The government balance sheet the sustainability of the financial market attention,China's massive local debt once also makes the market concerns the risk.But compared to developed countries such as Europe, the U.S. and Japan sovereign assets common is negative,Even if narrow diameter density of China's sovereignty assets 20 trillion yuan net worth,Also transmission out of China government stable assets and liabilities structure.

  不过,由于中国缺乏系统性的政府会计制度和准则,导致了各研究团队的取值差异,且中国只有一张反映政府现收现付的财政预算表,缺乏一张政府资产负债的权益表,从而使中国政府资产质量与负债水平更多处于管中窥豹阶段,难以全面有效地评估和优化政府的资产负债结构,合理有效管理政府资产负债的期限结构等风险。

but,Because of China's lack of systematic government accounting system and criterion,The research team led to the value difference,And China only a to reflect the government paygo financial budget statement,The lack of a government assets and liabilities the rights and interests of the table,So that the Chinese government assets quality and debt levels to be more ab uno disce omnes stage,Difficult to fully effective evaluation and optimization of the government's assets and liabilities structure,Reasonable and effective management of assets and liabilities government term structure and risk.

  这份报告虽首次以准官方名义展现出中国良好的债务偿付能力,但与德意志银行的马骏和中行首席经济学家曹远征的研究一样,只是一种概算,难以有效精确量化。这也使得三份报告存在很明显的分歧。如马骏等得出的结论是2010年政府净资产为38万亿元,为社科院狭义口径的1.9倍,又如曹远征研究发现2010年中国养老金缺口已达16.48万亿元,社科院报告给出的2010年养老金隐形债务为3.5万亿元等。

The report is for the first time in quasi official name show China good debt solvency,But with a fair of deutsche bank and bank of China chief economist CaoYuanZheng as research,Is a kind of approximate,Difficult to effective accurate quantification.It also makes three report exist obvious differences.As a fair and concluded that in 2010 the government net assets for 38 trillion yuan,For cass narrow diameter 1.9 times,And as CaoYuanZheng study found that in 2010 China pension gap has reached 16.48 trillion yuan,Cass report given 2010 pension stealth debt for 3.5 trillion yuan, etc.

  坦白说,三份报告某种程度上都存在高估资产之问题,即在资产计算上存在杠杆化问题。如以国有经营性资产为例,其资产规模为59.1万亿,负债为35.6万亿元,由于国企负债主要为贷款,而信贷大都以不动产等为抵押或质押,且大量抵押资产在产权上不发生所有权位移,而依然计入企业资产中,同时国企获取的贷款,若形成新资产则以新资产计入公司总资产中,若暂未形成新投资则以银行存款计入公司资产中。显然,这意味着抵押品通过负债贷款等方式两次计入了企业资产中。由于国企主要布局于周期性行业,在经济增速持续回落下,资产生息能力下降是可预见的,即资产在会计处理上存在减值风险之可能,而负债在经济增速回落下则不会。

frankly,Three report to some extent there are overvalued assets of the problem,Namely in the balance calculation are leveraged problem.Such as the state-owned business assets, for example,The asset scale for 59.1 trillion,Liabilities for 35.6 trillion yuan,Due to the state-owned enterprises liability mainly for the loan,And most of the credit to real estate, etc for a mortgage or pledge,And a large number of mortgage assets in the property right does not occur on ownership displacement,And still included in the enterprise assets,At the same time the acquisition of loans,If a new asset is formed by new assets included in the company's total assets,If temporary not form the new investment bank deposits included in the company assets.obviously,This means that collateral loans through debt means such as two included in the enterprise assets.Because the main layout in the cyclical industry,In economic growth sustained fall down,Assets reduced ability to live is foreseeable,Namely assets in the accounting treatment exist on the possibility of impairment risk,While liability in economic growth will not back down.

  同时,社科院等报告把中国的外汇储备计入资产,而未把央行投放的基础货币计入负债,本身也导致资产杠杆化。中国的官方外汇储备实际上是央行对贸易部门的负债,而非资产,若把外汇储备统计入国家资产,那么就需通过相应汇率折算,把外汇储备对应的外汇占款换算成财政部的“虚拟”特别国债,计入国家的负债中。毕竟,外汇储备只是贸易部门和FDI等留存在央行的有价凭证,而非政府或国家资产。又如在计算养老金隐形负债时,部分报告更多是基于收付实现制的轧差,而养老金隐形负债既需弥补历史欠库,还要做实个人账户和统筹账户。

At the same time,Cass and report to China's foreign exchange reserves in asset,But not the central bank's monetary base on included in the liabilities,Itself also lead to assets leveraged.China's official foreign exchange reserve is actually the central bank to trade department's liabilities,Rather than assets,If the foreign exchange reserve statistics into the country's state assets,So should be through the corresponding rate reduced,The foreign exchange reserves corresponding funding of foreign exchange conversion into the Treasury"virtual"Special Treasury bonds,Included in the country in debt.After all,Foreign exchange reserve just trade department and FDI and retained in the central bank's negotiable documents,And non-governmental or national assets.And as in the calculation of the pension invisible liabilities,Part of the report more is based on the cash basis of rolling difference,And pension stealth debt both need to compensate for history owe library,Have to do real individual account and as a whole account.

  当然,当前中国政府拥有20万亿还是38万亿,抑或69.6万亿净资产,相比欧美诸国的国家净资产为负,具有健康的资产负债水平。相反,政府拥有的巨额净资产,无疑也透射出中国有必要推进新一轮市场化改革。如面对高达20万亿的净资产,政府可适度通过出售部分国企股份做实社保等,进而推进政府职能转型。当前构建国家资产负债表有助于政府有效规划其资产负债结构等,避免资产久期化负债短期化下隐现流动性风险。而要有效构建国家资产负债表,首先需尽快出台《政府会计准则》等制度,以使政府资产负债表置于确定性、标准化框架之下。

Of course,China's current government has 20 trillion or 38 trillion,Or 69.6 trillion net assets,Compared with Europe and the United States states of the net assets of the country for the negative,Have a healthy level of assets and liabilities.instead,The government have huge net assets,Will no doubt transmission out of China is necessary to promote a new round of market reform.Such as face up to 20 trillion net assets,The government can moderate by selling shares of state-owned enterprises do real social security, etc,Promote the transformation of the government function.The current building national balance sheet help the government effective planning its assets and liabilities structure, etc,Avoid assets secular change a lot of liabilities under looms liquidity risk.To be effective and constructing of national balance sheet,First of all should be issued as soon as possible[Government accounting standards]system,In order to make government balance sheet in deterministic/Standardized framework.



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