美元走弱推高有色 A weak dollar push up non-ferrous

　　上周大宗商品的利好消息不断，首先是发改委批复了多个项目；其次，欧元区亮出货币交易(OMT)，这种无限量、完全冲销式的购债计划被市场广泛看好；最后，美国的就业数据不能令人满意，强化了推出QE3的预期。在这些利好刺激下，大宗商品迎来强劲反弹，其中反弹最为强烈的是稀贵金属。纽约黄金上周完全摆脱了调整态势，站到1730美元的高位；白银势头更猛，达到3370美元的高位。大宗商品表现出色，个股也反弹强劲，上周有色金属板块指数上涨8.14%，10日该指数继续跑赢大盘。

Last week the commodities good news constantly,The first is the written reply to a subordinate body development and reform commission (NDRC) multiple projects;secondly,The euro area reveals currency trading(OMT),This kind of an unlimited/Complete write-off type purchase debt plan is widely valued;finally,The United States employment data is not satisfactory,To strengthen the launch QE3 expected.In these good stimulation,Commodities have strong rebound,Among them the most strong rebound is rare metals.New York gold completely get rid of last week the adjustment situation,Stand to $1730 high;Silver momentum more fierce,The high $3370.Commodity performance,Stocks also rebound strong,Last week, non-ferrous metal plate index rose 8.14%,10 the index continued to run to win the market.

　　有色板块的强势表现是利好累积的结果。早在8月初，LME基本金属价格指数整体呈现震荡上行态势，主要原因是美国7月失业率数据小幅回升，市场对美国推行QE3预期再度增强，同时欧洲央行讨论购买国债计划。但在月中因市场实体经济数据继续表现疲软，金属价格缺乏需求支撑，市场对QE3预期有所降温，LME基本金属价格上升势头扭转，一路震荡下行。进入下旬后，欧洲央行表示将出台回购欧洲债券方案。同时，美联储会议纪要表示多数理事支持出台新的货币宽松政策，QE3出台预期强化，基本金属价格重回上升态势。

Non-ferrous plate strong performance in the good is the result of accumulation.As early as in early August,LME base metals prices index present the concussion upward trend,The main reason is the United States July unemployment data rebounded slightly,Market for the United States QE3 implementation is expected to increase again,At the same time the European central bank to buy Treasury bonds to discuss plans.But in the months because market entity economic data continues to weak performance,Metal price of lack of demand support,Market for QE3 expected has cooled,LME base metals prices momentum torsion,Shocks all the way down.After late into the,The European central bank said it will come buyback eurobond scheme.At the same time,The federal reserve meeting minutes says most directors support introduce new monetary easing,QE3 issued expected reinforcement,Base metals prices return to rise.

　　众所周知，大宗商品特别是有色金属有两重属性，一是金融属性，二是商品属性。从目前的情况来看，金融属性主导着有色金属走势，货币宽松的预期转强，有色金属就会走强，若这种预期转弱，有色金属也就相应转入低迷。目前美元指数走弱，有色金属走强正好印证了这一点。然而，从各大经济体的最近数据来看，摩根大通公布的8月全球制造业PMI连续三月低于荣枯线，创2009年6月以来最低水平。中国经济增速持续放缓，欧元区和美国的经济低位徘徊，有色金属的商品属性仍无法支撑整个大市走牛，所以暂时只能看货币的脸色行事。

As is known to all,Commodity especially non-ferrous metals have dual attribute,One is the financial attributes,The second is commodity attribute.According to the current situation,Financial attribute dominated non-ferrous metal trend,Monetary loose expected strong turn,Non-ferrous metal will be stronger,If the weaker expected,Non-ferrous metal also corresponding into the downturn.At present a weaker dollar index,Non-ferrous metal stronger just proved this point.however,From the major economies in recent data to see,Jpmorgan chase published August global manufacturing PMI continuous march below vicissitude line,And since June of 2009 the lowest level.China's economic slowdown in growth rates continued,The eurozone and the American economic low wandering,Non-ferrous metal goods attribute is still unable to support the whole city bullish,So temporary can only see monetary face act.

四大因素影响反弹 Four factors rebound

　　显然有色金属无法长线走牛已成市场共识，那么反弹到底能走多远？

Obviously non-ferrous metal cannot long term bullish market has become a consensus,Then bounced out how far one can go?

　　首先，国泰君安统计显示，从机构配置来看，基金公司2012年中报显示，2012年上半年共有777只基金持有67只有色金属类股票，合计市值437.22亿元，28.96亿股，较2011年增持2.35亿股，属于低配板块。持有数量最多的有色股集中在黄金、稀土、铜板块，其中中金黄金(600489,股吧)、厦门钨业(600549,股吧)、山东黄金(600547,股吧)分别被133、130、117只基金持有。如果从股份和市值看，被集中增持较多的个股是包钢稀土(600111,股吧)、厦门钨业、东方锆业(002167,股吧)和铜陵有色(000630,股吧)。分析人士认为，最近一段时间，基金可能对有色板块增仓。在这种情况下，只要看基金的平均仓位就可以推测出增仓潜力，若基金平均仓位过高，则意味着有色板块反弹行情或接近尾声。

First of all,Guotai junan statistics show,From the organization disposition to see,Fund company 2012 NianZhongBao display,In the first half of 2012 a total of 777 fund hold 67 only color metal stocks,Total market value 43.722 billion yuan,2.896 billion shares,A 2011 around 235 million shares,Belongs to low with plate.Hold the greatest number of non-ferrous strands of concentrated in gold/Rare earth/Copperplate block,The zhongjin gold(600489,guba)/Xiamen tungsten industry(600549,guba)/Shandong gold(600547,guba)Were 133/130/117 fund holding.If the stock market and see,Be centered around more stocks is clad steel rare earth(600111,guba)/Xiamen tungsten industry/East zirconium(002167,guba)And tongling nonferrous(000630,guba).Analysts believe that,A recent period of time,Fund might be in non-ferrous plate ing.In this case,As long as see the average fund positions can dope out ing potential,If the fund average high position,It means non-ferrous plate rallies or near the end.

　　其次，发改委上周批准多个地方基建项目，也是引爆金属价格大涨的原因。分析人士认为，这些项目对基本金属的带动更大，特别是铜和锌等。后市需要重点关注的是，项目批复之后，资金如何落实。可以重点关注一些城投债和轨道类信托产品的发行情况，以及中长期贷款等重要资金数据，这些数据如果向好，说明投资拉动经济增长将取得较好成果，否则批复的项目也只是停留在纸上。相应地，基本金属的反弹空间和长期走势也由此决定。

secondly,Development and reform commission approved by local infrastructure projects more than last week,Is detonated metal prices surged to reason.Analysts believe that,These projects to the basic driving metal more big,Especially copper and zinc, etc.Market outlook need to focus on is,Project after approval,Fund how to implement the.Can focus on some city for debt and orbital kind of trust product issuance,And long-term and medium-term loans and other important fund data,These data if better off,That investment stimulate economic growth will has achieved good results,Otherwise the reply of the project also just stay on the paper.accordingly,Basic metal rebound space and long-term trends and hence the decision.

　　第三，近段时间有色板块的强势表现很大程度上跟外围市场宽松预期有关。本周有美国联邦公开市场会议和德国对于欧洲央行救助合法性的裁决结果，若两个会议的结果低于预期，可能会对有色金属板块造成冲击。

The third,Near section time non-ferrous plate strong performance in the largely with the peripheral market loose the expected.This week, the United States federal open market conference and Germany for the European central bank rescue the legitimacy of ruling the results,If two the outcome of the meeting below expectations,May to non-ferrous metal plate impact.

　　最后，近日有媒体报道表示，我国将强制要求电力、钢铁、水泥和平板玻璃、化工、有色金属、航空等六行业提供碳排放数据，力争“十三五”进一步扩大碳排放权交易试点范围，逐步建立全国性的碳市场。这意味着整个有色行业的生产成本可能会有所上升，盈利水平也会存在一定压力，这种预期对有色金属的价格来说可能是正面的，但对公司来说不一定是正面的。

finally,Recently had the media reports said,Our country will forced to power/Iron and steel/Cement and flat glass/chemical/Non-ferrous metal/Aviation and so on six industry with carbon emissions data,Strive to"1035"Further expand the carbon emissions trading scope,Gradually establish a national carbon market.This means that the non-ferrous industry production costs may be increased,The profit level will also exists certain pressure,This expected to non-ferrous metal prices it is positive,But for the company is not necessarily positive.

金银或存投资机会 Gold and silver or save investment opportunities

　　“近期要炒就炒黄金股，无论是因为QE3预期还是地缘政治风险，黄金都有机会。”某私募人士说。

"In the near future to Fried is Fried gold shares,Whether because QE3 expected or geopolitical risk,Gold has a chance to."A private person said.

　　诸多机构对贵金属也是青睐有加。东方证券认为，黄金股将发挥避险功能。欧美量化宽松政策造成全球低利率，欧债危机和地缘政治因素推动黄金避险求。此外，新兴经济体央行及民间购买需求增加。过去十年，黄金官方储备需求及民间投资需求增速远超过黄金供给能力，推动黄金牛市持续演绎。

Many institutions of precious metals is also add favour.Orient securities think,The golden share will play hedge function.Europe and the United States quantitative easing policy contribute to global interest rates low,The debt crisis and geopolitical factors promote gold hedge for.In addition,Emerging economies' central bank and folk buying demand increase.Over the past ten years,Gold official reserve requirements and folk investment demand growth far more than gold supply capacity,Promote the golden bull market for deduction.

　　广发证券(000776,股吧)认为，近期A股市场有色行业仍为交易型机会，因为行业需求低迷的现状暂时无法改变，中期则坚定看好贵金属。

Wide hair negotiable securities(000776,guba)think,The recent a-share market is still non-ferrous industry for transactional opportunity,Because industry needs the present situation of the downturn temporarily unable to change,The firm value in the middle of the precious metal.

　　不过，银河证券有色金属研究小组提示，如果QE3推出，应该只是短期刺激因素，而非大级别行情催化剂。市场下跌的风险亦不大，即使最后没有QE3推出，市场在短期下跌后，黄金仍会存在较明确的投资机会。

but,Galaxy securities non-ferrous metal research group tip,If QE3 launch,Should only short-term stimulus,Rather than big level market catalyst.The risk of the market fall also is not big,Even if the last no QE3 launch,The market in the short term after the fall,Gold is still there will be a definite investment opportunities.

　　事实上，白银的走势近期比黄金更好。有分析人士表示，白银既是贵金属，具有避险功能，同时又有工业用途，这是黄金不具备的。若经济走弱，白银同样可以保值，而经济走强，市场对白银的需求也会增加。白银的走势被看好。

In fact,Silver trend in the near future better than gold.Have analysts said,Silver is precious metals,Has the hedge function,At the same time and industrial use,This is gold does not have.If a weaker economy,The silver can also value,And stronger economic,In the silver market demand will increase.Silver trend is valued.

　　分析人士认为，目前黄金、白银的表现非常突出，未来走势依然看好，9月A股有色板块在贵金属走势带动下或有良好表现，与铜、锌等基本金属相关但近期滞涨的上市公司也值得关注。

Analysts believe that,At present gold/Silver performance is very prominent,The future remains optimistic about the trend,September a-share non-ferrous plate in precious metals trend driven by or have good performance,And copper/Zinc and other basic metal related but recent stagflation of the listed company also deserves attention.