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收评:窄幅调整存在结束可能--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-11

  继昨天市场在60天均线下方维持窄幅震荡之后,今日市场延续震荡走低的姿态。不过在大盘步步探底时,股指下探的动能显得相对柔弱,特别是收盘前半个小时,股指竟然缓缓回升。最终以一根带有下影线的阴K线收盘。同时成交量继续维持萎缩状态,仅释放出657亿的成交量,显示市场调整的动能不足。

The market yesterday in 60 days are offline party to maintain a narrow range of shock after,Today the market continue shock slump attitude.But in the market when the bottom step exploration,Stock index test of kinetic energy is relatively weak,Especially for half an hour before closing,Stock index rebounded actually slowly.Finally with a root with could Yin K line closing.At the same time continue to maintain volume shrinking state,Only release 65.7 billion volume,Show the market adjustment of kinetic energy shortage.

  日K线图上看,2100点具有对市场起到支撑的趋势,也正好是5天均线的支撑附近,所以,比较明显的是市场在经过昨天与今天的窄幅震荡过后,股指对均线系统的技术性修正需求已经基本完成,窄幅震荡调整存在结束可能,后市市场有望延续2029点以来的反弹行情,冲击上方60天均线的压制随时即将爆发。

K, on the,With 2100 points to the market plays the trend of support,Also is just five days are line near support,so,Obviously the market after yesterday and today's narrow after the shock,Stock index to all line system technical correction demand has been basically completed,A narrow range of shock adjustment may exist end,The market outlook is expected to continue the market since 2029 points of rallies,Impact above 60 days are line pressing always simmering.

  笔者认为,市场持续上攻的反弹动力来自以下两大方面。一方面,相对于市场自2453点调整至2029点,调整幅度达逾400点之深来说,短线市场的反弹幅度不够,距离黄金分割位0.382的点位对应的2190点还相差一段距离,所以股指存在超跌反弹的技术性需求。同时,市场自2453点调整下来时间跨度达4个月之久,所以,9月份整个月处于超跌反弹的概率较大,9月份月K线上收阳应该是市场主流。另一方面,近期监管层持续进一步的维稳举措推动市场反弹。在9月初发改委连续批准30个基础建设重大项目,项目投资逾万亿元的稳经济政策之后,近日,证监会两开座谈会维稳,建议机构投资者重视当前A股市场的价值投资机会,提振市场信心。并且,8月人民币贷款新增7039亿元,远超预期,表明经济走势有所趋稳等,均有利于市场延续反弹。

The author thinks that,Markets continue to attack on the bounce of the power from the following two aspects.On the one hand,Relative to the market since the 2453 points to 2029 points adjust,Adjustment range of more than 400 points for the deep,Short term market rebound amplitude is not enough,Distance golden section a 0.382 point corresponding 2190 points are also a distance,So the stock index exist super fell the bounce of the technical requirements.At the same time,Market since the 2453 point adjustment down time span of 4 months long,so,In September the whole month in ultra fall rebound larger probability,9 month K line collecting from Yang should be market mainstream.On the other hand,Recent regulatory layer continuous further dimensional stability measures to promote the market rebound.In early September continuous development and reform commission approved by 30 infrastructure projects,Project investment more than one trillion yuan stability after economic policy,recently,Securities regulatory commission two open forum dimensional stability,Suggest institutional investors pay more attention to the current a-share market value of investment opportunity,Boost market confidence.and,August RMB loans increased by 703.9 billion yuan,Much more than expected,Show that economic trends have stabilised, etc,All market continue to rebound.

  而从盘中表现来看,新的投资热点出现,板块轮动有望形成接力。中国昨天宣布钓鱼岛领海基线,中日矛盾级别将从“普通争议”直接过渡到尖锐的“主权侵犯”,A股军工股面临整体刺激。如果日方不放弃购岛计划,这种争执将会不断升级,所以军工航天板块短线应该积极关注。同时,银行卡启动换芯运动,磁卡类、电子支付类题材受益;另外,为稳定经济,促进内贸流通等政策举措的实施,将对国内的大消费类相关行业起到积极引导作用,这些均是近期市场有望形成反弹接力的相关投资标的,投资者需要从中把握阶段性投资机会。(金证顾问首席分析师: 陈自力)

And from the tray performance to see,The new investment hot spots appear,Plate wheel move is expected to form relay.China yesterday announced the diaoyu islands the baselines of the territorial sea,Sino-japanese contradiction from level"Common dispute"Direct transition to the sharp"Infringe upon the sovereignty",A share military strands of facing the whole stimulation.If Japan does not give up purchase island plan,This dispute will continue to upgrade,So military space plate short line should be actively attention.At the same time,Bank card start in core movement,Magnetic card class/Electronic payment class theme benefit;In addition,To stabilize the economy,Promote circulation of domestic trade, such as the implementation of policy measures,Will the big domestic consumer related industry have a positive guidance,These are the recent market is expected to rebound form relay related investment target,Investors need to grasp the phased investment opportunities.(Gold card consultants chief analyst: ChenZiLi)



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