在寻求扩充外需市场通道的同时，致力于贸易转向以及出口的转型升级，是当下中国产品出口需求空间受到前所未有的挤压和抑制下的不二选择。只要把握好节奏和选择好适当的策略，尽早实现服务贸易出口对制造贸易出口的替代，就能最大限度地缩短这个“阵痛”的过程。

Looking for expansion overseas market demand market channel at the same time,Committed to trade diversion and export transformation and upgrade,Is the Chinese products export demand space is unprecedented extrusion and inhibition of first choice.As long as a good grasp of rhythm and choose the appropriate strategies,As early as possible to fulfill the service trade exports to manufacturing trade export replacement,Can maximum limit shorten this"pains"process.

　　张 锐

A sharp

　　从1月的同比负增长，到2月快速拉升至18.3%，再到8月回落至2.7%，我国出口贸易在今年前8个月划出了一道令人尴尬的“哭泣曲线”。由于美国经济增长复苏乏力，欧债危机覆压之下的欧洲经济一蹶不振，可以预期未来我国出口还会继续收敛；而拉长观察时间则不难发现，中国出口增速处于下降通道已经持续一年多了，其对经济的拉动力一直处于负值区间。如果这种趋势得不到扭转，我国经济下行的压力将进一步增大。

From 1 month of the year-on-year,To February quick pull to 18.3%,To August dropped to 2.7%,China's export trade in the first eight months made a embarrassing"Cry curve".As growth in the us recovery lack of power,The debt crisis overlying pressure under the European economic cannot recover after a setback,We can expect the future of our country export will continue to convergence;And spin observation time, it is not hard to find,China's export growth falling channel has continued for over a year now,Its economy has been pulling power in a negative value interval.If this trend is not reverse,China's economic downward pressure will further increase.

　　以劳动密集型出口产品为主打是中国出口的最主要结构性特征，这种出口模式一般是建立在国内低价格要素的充分供给以及国外市场旺盛需求基础之上的。然而，由于劳动力、土地和资本价格的上涨，中国出口产品的比较优势已日渐式微；与此同时，伴随着美国等发达国家“再工业化”战略的启动以及周边发展中国家制造业追赶策略的实施，中国产品的出口需求空间受到了前所未有的挤压和抑制。

To labor intensive exports give priority to dozen is China's export the main structural characteristics,The export model is generally based on the domestic low price elements of the fully supply and foreign markets on the basis of strong demand.however,As the Labour/Land and capital prices,China's export products comparative advantage is becoming weak;meanwhile,With the United States and other developed countries"To industrialization"Strategic starts and the neighboring countries manufacturing after the implementation of the strategy,Chinese products export demand space by the unprecedented extrusion and inhibition.

　　在如此内外交困的背景下，我们该如何锻造与激发出口贸易的“正能量”呢？

In such recounted the inside and outside of the background,How should we forging and stimulate the export trade"Positive energy"??

　　出口增长的恢复无疑需要出口退税政策的支撑，只不过政策激励的重点应归位到有利于产业结构升级的机电与高技术产品上，同时兼顾国内具有长期发展潜力的相关行业和产品。值得注意的是，今年以来由于出口增速下降伴随着进口增速的减缓，（1至8月我国进口增速仅3.8%），因此，外贸政策的调整还必然考虑到要刺激进口，但基于来料加工进口占我国进口总量在50％左右的事实，决策层应将扩大进口的重点放在以提振内需而引起的大规模产业改造或产业升级的需求上，以此营造中国出口的未来竞争力。

The recovery of export growth will undoubtedly need the tax reimbursement for export policy support,But the focus of the policy stimulation should be home to to the upgrading of the industrial structure of mechanical and electronic products with high technology,At the same time give attention to two or morethings domestic has the long-term development potential of the relevant industry and products.It is important to note that,Since this year as export growth drops along with import growth slowdown,(1 to 8 months China imports only 3.8%),therefore,Foreign trade policy adjustment is necessary considering to stimulate import,But based on the processing of our country imported import in 50% of the facts,Decision-making should be the focus of expanding import to boost domestic demand and cause large-scale industry transformation or industrial upgrading of needs,To build the future of China's export competitiveness.

　　除了贸易转向政策之外，财政、货币与汇率等配套举措也能对出口起到“输血”和“稳压”的作用。尽管今年以来财政收入较上年同期有显著下降，但依然高于同期经济增长速度，从而为企业尤其是外贸行业预留了一定的结构性减税空间。由此，笔者认为，政府完全可以通过补贴和税收优惠等措施来缓解外贸企业成本上升的压力。在货币与汇率政策方面，今年以来虽然人民币升值步伐放缓甚至出现大幅贬值进而对出口行业形成一定的利好支撑，但人民币汇率波动幅度的加大也意味着企业面临着更大的外汇风险，如果应对不足，可能会显著压缩企业的盈利空间。为此，在要求企业主动提高外汇风险识别和应对能力的同时，政府可以借鉴德国的经验，加强对企业的汇率保险服务，对汇率波幅超过一定程度的损失给予补偿。另外，在海关政策方面，可以考虑给予出口企业三个月担保前提下的先放后税、简化先征后返等优惠政策，同时简化加工贸易成品内销审批业务手续。

In addition to trade policy to outside,financial/Currency and exchange rate and other supporting measures can also play on exports"Blood transfusion"and"Stabilized voltage"role.Although since this year the financial income year-on-year decline significantly,But still higher than the same period of economic growth speed,Thus for enterprise especially foreign trade industry reserve a certain structural tax cuts space.this,The author thinks that,The government can completely through subsidies and tax incentives and other measures to alleviate the pressure of the rise in the cost of foreign trade enterprises.In the currency and exchange rate policy,Since this year although RMB appreciation slow appear even the substantial depreciation and export industry formed a good support,But the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range of the increase also means that enterprises are faced with more foreign exchange risk,If the dealing with insufficient,May be significant compression enterprise's profit space.therefore,In requests the enterprise active improve foreign exchange risk identification and coping ability at the same time,The government can draw lessons from the experience of Germany,To strengthen enterprise's exchange rate insurance service,To exchange rate volatility more than a certain degree of loss compensation.In addition,In the customs policy,Can consider to export enterprise three months guarantee premise to put after tax/Simplify the first sign then returned and preferential policies,At the same time, simplify the processing trade in finished product examination and approval formalities of business.

　　毫无疑问，与政策的刺激与保证相比，扭转和稀释中国企业对发达经济体的出口依赖度无疑是更具战略价值。资料显示，目前中国企业对美国和欧盟的出口占比分别在17%左右，对日本出口占比7%左右，美、日、欧三者合计超过40%，出口市场的集中程度可见一斑。这种失重的结构不仅形成了中国出口企业被发达经济体所“绑架”的事实，而且非常容易招致外贸摩擦。因此，分散出口风险和实现出口贸易的多元化是中国企业的必由之路。一方面，基础工业薄弱的东盟国家各国对我国纺织品、服装、鞋、食品、机械电子设备、车辆和化工产品等需求旺盛，东盟十国可以作为中国企业海外贸易的理想“沃土”；另一方面，非洲国家每年要花1700亿美元用于进口，并且约83％的GDP（4600亿美元）都用于消费，几乎所有非洲国家对轻工、纺织、服装、五金、钟表、床上用品、家电、电子等产品的需求量都很大，而且普遍依赖进口。由于中国的出口产品其附加值都比较低，科技含量相对不足，因而在非洲具有强大的市场竞争力，中国企业可以深挖非洲市场的需求空间。另外，目前拉美地区年国内生产总值已超过2万亿美元，有着巨大潜力，而且中国与拉美国家政治、经贸关系处于不断改良之中，这对国内企业重点拓展拉美市场是非常有利的因素。

There is no doubt that,And policy stimulation and warranty compared,Torsion and dilution Chinese enterprise to developed economies export dependency is undoubtedly more strategic value.Data shows,At present Chinese enterprises to the United States and the European Union's exports respectively than at around 17%,To Japan accounts for more than 7%,beauty/day/The three total more than 40%,Export market concentration is obvious.The weightless structure not only formed the Chinese export enterprise is the developed economies"kidnapping"fact,And very easy to cause the foreign trade friction.therefore,Dispersion export risk and realize the diversity of export trade is the only way of Chinese enterprises.On the one hand,Basic industry weak asean countries to our country textile/clothing/shoes/food/Mechanical and electronic equipment/Vehicles and chemical products demand,Asean countries can be used as a Chinese enterprises overseas trade ideal"Fertile soil";On the other hand,African countries each year to spend $170 billion for import,And about 83% of the GDP(460 billion dollars)To consumption,Almost all African countries to light industry/textile/clothing/hardware/clock/bedding/Home appliance/Electronic products demand is great,And generally depend on import.Because of China's export products its added value is low,The content of science and technology is relatively insufficient,Thus in Africa with a strong market competitiveness,Chinese enterprises can be deep cut African the demand of the market space.In addition,At present in Latin America's gross domestic product has exceeded 2 trillion us dollars,Has huge potential,And China and Latin American national politics/Economic and trade relations in a continuous improvement in,The domestic enterprise key development Latin American market is very favorable factors.

　　在寻求扩充外需市场通道的同时，致力于出口的转型升级是中国企业的必修之课。尽管在出口萎缩的生态中企业会强烈感受到转型升级的“阵痛”，但只要把握好节奏和选择好适当的策略，就可以最大限度地缩短这个过程。为此，一方面，要利用现阶段我国就业总量压力逐渐缓解的有利时期，加快推进外贸产业转型步伐，加大产业转移力度；另一方面，要利用国家较为丰富的财政实力，加大对产业研究发展的扶持，促进新技术的应用，加快产业升级改造步伐。同时要加大服务贸易产品出口的政策支持力度，如可以考虑建立服务贸易出口促进专项资金，建立服务贸易的自由贸易区并提供税收优惠等，以尽快地实现服务贸易出口对制造贸易出口的替代。

Looking for expansion overseas market demand market channel at the same time,Committed to the transformation and upgrading of the export of Chinese enterprises is required of the class.Despite the declining exports in the ecological enterprise will strongly feel of the transformation and upgrade of"pains",But as long as a good grasp of rhythm and choose the appropriate strategies,Can maximum limit to shorten the process.therefore,On the one hand,To use in our country at present stage total employment pressure gradually ease favorable period,Accelerate the pace of foreign trade industry transformation,Increase the industrial transfer dynamics;On the other hand,To use of the country's relatively rich financial strength,Strengthen the industry research and development support,To promote the application of new technology,To speed up the pace of industrial upgrading.At the same time to increase service trade products export policy support,If can consider to establish service trade export promotion special funds,To establish service trade free trade area and provide preferential tax, etc,As soon as possible to fulfill the service trade exports to manufacturing trade export replacement.

　　作为可以撑大中国未来出口半径的重要力量，民营企业理应成为外贸专项政策和其他各种政策倾力支持和扶持的重点。从目前来看，尽管由于国有企业出口显著下滑和外商投资企业出口优势消失导致了整体出口步伐的显著放缓，但民营企业的出口竞争力和效率依然不减。资料显示，今年前八个月，民营企业出口额已达到出口总额的36.3%，同比增长16.7%，大大跑赢全国7.1%的增速。民营企业显然已经成为稳定我国外贸出口最能倚重的主体。管理层若是在能源、铁路、电信等领域为民营企业释放出更大的投资空间，就能打造出支撑民企未来出口的更宽阔“基地”。同时，还应继续在税费、融资、用工和科技成果应用等方面优化民营企业发展的商业环境，为民营企业的出口蓄力造势。

As can hold big China's future export radius of the important force,Private enterprise should be a special foreign trade policy and other policies tilting force support and the support of the key.It seems,Although the state-owned enterprises to export a significant decline and foreign investment enterprises to export advantage disappear led to the pace of the whole export a significant slowdown,But private enterprise's export competitiveness and efficiency still don't reduce.Data shows,In the first eight months,The private enterprise exports has reached 36.3% of the total amount of export,Year-on-year growth of 16.7%,Greatly run win 7.1% of the nation's growth.Private enterprises have apparently become stable our export most can rely on the subject.If the management in the energy/railway/Telecommunications and other fields for the private enterprises to release more investment space,Can make a support corporation future export more spacious"base".At the same time,Still should continue in taxes/financing/Labor and scientific and technological achievements in the application of optimization of the development of private enterprise business environment,For the private enterprises to export storage force build-up.

　　（作者系广东技术师范学院天河学院经济学教授）

(The author is guangdong technology normal college tianhe college professor of economics)