中金公司研究部11日发布的四季度宏观经济展望预计，年内仍然有1-2次降低存款准备金率和1次降息空间（对称降息），明年可能降低存款准备金率3-4次，降息1次（非对称降息）。

Cicc research published 11 four quarter is expected to macro economic outlook,Years still have 1-2 times lower the deposit reserve rate cut interest rates and a space(Symmetry to cut interest rates),Next year may lower the deposit reserve ratio 3-4 times,1 time to cut interest rates(Asymmetric cut interest rates).

　　面对外汇占款减少、企业利润下降、银行惜贷和PPI通缩种种背景，基于当前疲弱的经济状况，中金公司判断今年剩余时间及明年，中国货币政策的大方向是放松，预计央行稳增长的压力将持续存在。

In the face of the funding of reduce foreign exchange/Corporate profits decline/Bank arisen and PPI deflation various background,Based on the current weak economic conditions,Cicc judgment that the rest of this time and the next year,China's monetary policy is relaxed way,The central bank is expected to increase stability of pressure will continue to exist.

　　中金公司首席经济学家、董事总经理彭文生说，相对于公开市场操作，调低存款准备金率是应对持续的资金外流的更有效手段。降准有利于对冲外汇占款增量的减少，但不一定代表流动性放松。

Cicc's chief economist/Managing director PengWenSheng said,Relative to the open market operation,Lower the deposit reserve rate is coping with continuous capital flight more effective means.Drop quasi to hedge foreign exchange funding of incremental reduction,But do not necessarily represent liquidity to relax.

　　对于降息的预测主要是基于目前仍然居高的企业实际贷款利率。彭文生说，明年CPI涨幅可能回升至3%的水平，如果央行要避免实际存款利率为负，则存款利率有1次下调利息的空间（25个基点）。

Cut interest rates for the prediction of main is based on is still high in the enterprise actual loan interest rate.PengWenSheng said,CPI increase next year may be back up to 3% level,If the central bank to avoid real deposit interest rate is negative,The deposit interest rates have one cut interest space(25 basis points).

　　房地产市场调控有可能抑制上述宽松的货币政策。彭文生说，为避免房地产市场预期，央行降准降息的力度有可能低于中金预期。

The real estate market regulation may inhibit the loose monetary policy.PengWenSheng said,To avoid the real estate market expectations,The central bank to cut interest rates must drop efforts may have less than zhongjin expected.

　　中金调低了今明两年的GDP增速预期，但仍认为经济增长将在明年小幅反弹。2012年GDP增速预测从7.8%下调到7.6%，2013年从8.3%降到8.0%；同时CPI通胀预测分别从2.8%和3.3%调低至2.7%和3.0%。

Zhongjin down by in the next two years expected GDP growth,But still think that economic growth will rebound slightly in the next year.In 2012 GDP growth forecast from 7.8% down to 7.6%,2013 from 8.3% to 8.0%;At the same time CPI inflation forecast 2.8% and 3.3% respectively from the lower to 2.7% and 3.0%.

　　另外，中金判断9月13日美国出台QE3的概率为60%。基于我国当前增长动能疲弱、通胀压力温和的情况，QE3总体上对中国经济利大于弊。(任晓 陈琴)

In addition,Zhongjin judgment on September 13, the United States issued QE3 probability is 60%.Based on the current weak growth kinetic energy/Inflationary pressure mild conditions,QE3 overall on China's economy more good than harm.(RenXiao ChenQin)