国务院日前召开常务会议，通过了加快出口退税进度、支持商业银行努力扩大对小微企业的贸易融资、扩大出口信用保险规模和覆盖面等八大举措，力促外贸稳定增长。在世界经济下行压力继续增大和国内经济减速背景下，我国进出口前景不容乐观。笔者认为，除落实和完善稳定出口政策外，还应加大对外贸转型升级的支持力度，推动我国外贸结构进一步优化。

The state council has recently held executive meeting,Through to speed up the progress of the export tax rebate/Commercial Banks make efforts to expand the support to small micro enterprise trade financing/Expand the export credit insurance scale and coverage and eight measures,Urges the stable growth of foreign trade.In the world economy downward pressure continue to increase and the domestic economy under the background of reduction,China import and export foreground is not optimistic.The author thinks that,In addition to implement and improve the stability of the export policy,Should also strengthen the foreign trade of the transformation and upgrade of support,To promote the country's foreign trade structure was further optimized.

内外部环境不乐观 Internal and external environment is not optimistic

　　从进出口外部环境看，全球经济复苏动能不足。今年8月，全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从7月的48.4%下滑至48.1%，是连续第4个月下滑，创2009年6月以来新低。欧元区制造业PMI从7月的44.0%升至45.1%，连续13个月处于荣枯临界点50%以下。美国制造业PMI从7月的49.8%下滑至49.6%，连续第三个月低于50%，创2009年7月以来新低。日本制造业PMI从7月的47.9%下滑至47.7%，创2011年4月以来新低。多数新兴市场PMI指数继续在荣枯线上下徘徊。

See from import and export external environment,The global economic recovery kinetic energy shortage.August,Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index(PMI)From July 48.4% down to 48.1%,Is the fourth consecutive months of decline,And a new low since June 2009.The eurozone manufacturing PMI from July to 44.0%,Continuous 13 months in vicissitude critical point below 50%.The United States manufacturing PMI from July 49.8% down to 49.6%,For the third consecutive months less than 50%,And a new low since July 2009.Japanese manufacturing PMI from July 47.9% down to 47.7%,And a new low since April 2011.Most emerging markets PMI index continues to vicissitude line wander up and down.

　　欧元区经济分化加深。继今年一季度环比零增长后，欧元区二季度国内生产总值（GDP）环比下滑0.2%。欧元区经济景气指数从7月的87.9降至8月的86.1，创近三年来最低。欧元区整体经济未现明显复苏迹象。

The economy of the euro area differentiation deepen.After the first quarter of this year annulus after zero growth,The eurozone GDP in the second quarter(GDP)Chain fell 0.2%.The eurozone economy boom index from July to August 87.9 drop of 86.1,Gen nearly three years minimum.The eurozone economy as a whole is not obvious signs of recovery.

　　美国经济下行风险加剧。7月份消费信贷按年率计算下降1.5%，显示美国民众对待消费持谨慎态度。日益临近的政府“财政悬崖”正增大美国经济衰退的风险，加之欧债危机的外部影响，美国经济温和复苏势头可能再次被压抑。

The American economy grew downside risks.July consumer credit at an annualised rate fell by 1.5%,Show americans treat consumption cautious attitude.An impending government"Financial cliff"Is increase the risk of a us recession,Together with the debt crisis of external influence,The American economy moderate recovery momentum may be suppressed again.

　　此外，由于外部需求总体疲弱，国内经济继续受结构性问题困扰，新兴市场短期的增长仍不乐观。金砖国家内需结构性问题在外需不振的背景下暴露出来。

In addition,Due to the overall weak external demand,The domestic economy continues to be structural problems,Emerging market short-term growth is still not optimistic.Nuggets country structural problems of domestic demand in overseas market demand under the background of exposed.

　　从进出口国内环境看，经济仍在底部运行，增长放缓趋势加深。8月，我国规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.9%，比7月回落0.3个百分点，创2009年5月以来低点。固定资产投资累计同比增长20.2%，较7月回落0.2个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降3.5%，创2009年10月以来新低，显示以制造业为代表的实体经济下行压力仍然比较大。8月制造业PMI为49.2%，自去年11月以来首次跌至“荣枯线”以下，反映制造业处于收缩状态。

See from import and export and domestic environment,The economy is still in the bottom operation,Growth trend to deepen.August,Our country above designated size industrial added value year-on-year growth of 8.9%,A drop of 0.3% than July,And low since May 2009.Total fixed asset investment grew 20.2%,A drop of 0.2% in July.Industrial producers ex-factory price index(PPI)3.5% year-on-year drop,And a new low since October 2009,Reveal that the manufacturing as a representative of the real economy downward pressure is still large.August manufacturing PMI is 49.2%,Since last November for the first time since the fall to"Vicissitude line"The following,Reflect manufacturing in the state of contraction.

　　不过，国内经济呈现一些积极现象。国内消费增速基本平稳，8月社会消费品零售总额同比增长13.2%，高出上月0.1个百分点，是连续4个月下滑后首度回升。房地产投资呈现企稳迹象，1-8月房地产投资同比增长15.6%，较1-7月反弹0.2个百分点,是一年以来首次反弹。前8月，全国新开工项目计划总投资增长24.9%，增速比前7月提高1.3个百分点，为未来经济增长增添了动能。前8月，中央项目投资同比由前7月的下降3%转为增长0.2%，将对整个固定资产投资起到放大和带动作用。随着前期稳增长政策措施落实到位并发挥作用，我国经济有望筑底回升。

but,The domestic economy has some positive phenomenon.Domestic consumption growth basic smoothly,August social total retail sales of consumer goods by 13.2% year-on-year growth,More than 0.1% last month,Is continuous four months after falling first picks up.Real estate investment show signs of stabilising,1-8 month real estate investment year-on-year growth of 15.6%,A 1 - July rebound 0.2%,Is a year for the first time since the rebound.Before August,The new project plan total investment grew by 24.9%,Increasing ratio before July increased by 1.3%,For future economic growth added kinetic energy.Before August,The central investment projects up by the former July fell by 3% to 0.2% growth,Will to the investment in fixed assets have amplification and leading role.With the steady growth policy measures put in place and play a role,China's economy is expected to build bottom rebound.

进出口“保十”压力大 Import and export"The ten"Pressure big

　　8月我国进出口同比增长仅为0.2%，增速几乎停滞。今年1-8月累计，进出口仅比去年同期增长6.2%，全年“保十”压力增大，形势相当严峻。由于未来一段时间全球经济将持续低迷，我国进出口增速有可能进一步走低。

August year-on-year growth of import and export of our country is only 0.2%,Growth slowed almost to a standstill.This year 1-8 month to date,Import and export only than last year the corresponding period grows 6.2%,Throughout the year"The ten"Pressure increase,Situation is quite serious.Since the future period of time the global economy will continue to slump,Import and export growth in China may down further.

　　出口增速将继续回落。8月我国制造业PMI的新订单指数为48.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。反映我国消费品市场和出口情况的“义乌小商品景气指数”近期虽然小幅反弹，但仍然低于指数基点1000点，预计短期内我国外需情况难有起色。尽管去年9月份出口规模较8月有所回落，基数变小，但今年9月工作日天数比去年少2天。因此9月出口增速仍可能继续回落。

Export growth will continue to fall.August Chinese manufacturing PMI new orders index is 48.7%,Fell 0.3% last month.Reflect our country consumer goods market and export situation"Yiwu small commodity boom index"Although the recent rebound slightly,But is still lower than index basis points 1000 points,In the short term is expected to our country overseas market demand situation difficult to recover.Although last September export volume is August down from their recent highs,Base becomes,But this year September day number 2 days less than last year.So September export growth could still continue to fall.

　　进口增速或低位徘徊。8月我国制造业PMI中的原材料库存指数再度大幅下跌，显示国内企业去库存压力持续。短期内进口增速可能继续受到国内去库存的拖累，但7月以来大宗商品价格和国际油价呈现回升态势，势必推高短期内进口商品价格。受国内去库存过程和稳增长政策出台的交互影响，进口增速或将经历先放缓后企稳的过程。

Import growth or low wandering.August in Chinese manufacturing PMI raw material inventory index dropped again,Display the domestic enterprise to inventory pressure sustained.In the short term imports may continue to be home to inventory drag,But since July commodity prices and international oil prices rebounded present situation,Certainly will push up the short term import commodity prices.By domestic to inventory process and steady growth policy on the introduction of the mutual influence,Import growth slowing or will experience first after the process of stabilising.

加大外贸支持力度 Increase the foreign trade support

　　当前要高度重视进出口贸易存在的问题和困难，主动应对国际市场竞争加剧、人民币间接升值、能源和原材料涨价、劳动力成本升高等诸多压力，有针对性地帮助企业克服困难，增强信心，保持外贸稳定增长。

At present, it is necessary to attach great importance to import and export trade problems and difficulties,The initiative to deal with the international market competition/RMB appreciation of indirect/Energy and raw materials prices/Labor costs rise, and many other pressure,Targeted to help enterprise to overcome difficulties,Enhance confidence,Maintain the stable growth of foreign trade.

　　继续落实和完善稳定出口政策。采取切实措施解决中小外贸企业融资难问题，加大对产品有市场、有订单的出口企业信贷和信保支持的力度。结合增值税改革试点，可对出口鼓励类商品的企业进行税费减免试点。在推进价格改革中，应适当抑制能源、原材料和生产性服务价格的过快上涨。

Continue to implement and improve the stable export policy.Take feasible measures to solve small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprise financing difficult problem,To increase product market/Have the order of export enterprise credit and letter protect the level of support.Combined with the pilot reform of value added tax,For export goods can be encouraged enterprise tax cuts pilot.In promoting the price reform,Should be appropriately inhibition energy/Raw materials and productive service prices rising too fast.

　　加大对外贸转型升级的支持。把握全球经济和产业结构调整的趋势，加大转方式政策促进力度，鼓励企业以市场为导向、以创新驱动、以质量带动、以品牌拉动、以兼并重组优化资源配置，推动我国外贸结构进一步优化，走集约化和可持续发展之路。

To increase the foreign trade of the transformation and upgrade of support.Grasp the global economy and industrial structure adjustment trend,Increase the way to promote the transfer policy efforts,Encourage enterprises to take the market as the guidance/Innovation drive/To the quality of drive/With the brand pull/Annexation and reorganization to optimize the allocation of resources,To promote the country's foreign trade structure was further optimized,Intensive and walk the road of sustainable development.

　　围绕结构调整积极扩大进口。进一步改革进口体制，主动开放市场，重点增加先进技术设备、关键零部件以及与人民群众密切相关的生活用品的进口。积极搭建出口转内销平台，帮助外贸企业统筹国内外两个市场，度过当前困难时期。

Around the structure adjustment to expand import positively.Further reform import system,Active open market,Increased focus on advanced technology and equipment/The key parts and the people closely related to the import of articles for daily use.Actively build export turns sale in domestic market platform,Help foreign trade enterprise as a whole both domestic and overseas market,Through the current difficult period.