海关总署公布最新数据显示，7月份中国出口同比增长仅为1%，进口同比增长4.7%。尽管市场早已预期7月份外贸不及6月，却未曾料到偏差会如此之大。业内人士判断，下半年外贸形势逊于上半年是大概率事件，全年外贸10%的增长目标面临着不小的挑战。

The customs administration announced the latest figures show，In July, China's export year-on-year growth is only 1%，Imports increased 4.7% year-on-year。Although the market had expected in July than foreign trade June，But he has not expect deviation should be so big。Industry insiders judgment，The second half of the first half is big foreign trade as probability events，The growth of foreign trade 10% annual target face quite a challenge。

　　据海关统计，中国7月份出口1769.4亿美元，增长1%，大幅低于市场预期的7.5%左右；贸易顺差251.5亿美元，收窄16.8%，少于市场预期的350亿美元。季调后，7月出口环比下滑4.2%，进口环比下降5.8%。分类数据显示，7月中国对美国出口同比增长0.6%，而上月为10.6%；与此同时，对欧盟的出口则大幅下滑16.2%。

According to customs statistics，In July China exported 176.94 billion dollars，1% increase，Significantly below market expectations of about 7.5%；The trade surplus of $25.15 billion，Narrow 16.8%，Less than market expectations of $35 billion。Season after the，July export annulus comparing declined 4.2%，Import annulus comparing fell 5.8%。Classified data show，China's exports to the United States in July a year-on-year increase of 0.6%，And for 10.6% last month；At the same time，While exports to the European Union decline of 16.2%。

　　来自瑞银证券的中国首席经济学家汪涛分析认为，全球经济指标下滑，包括近期美国ISM指数和德国IFO指数持续下挫，中欧双边贸易已为负增长，中国三季度出口的下行风险有所上升。巴克莱资本经济学家黄益平(微博)表示，考虑到继续减少的PMI新出口订单，预计出口增长会进一步放缓。星展银行大中华区高级经济学家梁兆基预计，净出口对GDP的贡献越来越小，所以投资和消费将承担拉动经济增长的主要责任。交通银行(4.44,0.03,0.68%)金融研究中心报告预计，未来国际经济增长短期内难以明显好转，市场仍将持续低迷。加之国内出口企业经营成本上升，出口困难难以根本改观，未来整体出口增速可能仅维持在10%左右。

From ubs securities of China's chief economist WangTao analysis thinks，Global economic indicators to slide，Including the most recent U.S. ISM index and the German IFO index last fall，Bilateral trade has negative growth，China's export of downside risk to the third quarter rose。Barclays capital HuangYiPing economists(Micro bo)said，Consider to continue to reduce new export orders of the PMI，Export growth is expected to slow further。DBS bank in the greater China region, a senior economist LiangZhaoJi expected，The contribution of net exports to GDP is more and more little，So the investment and consumption will take the responsibility for promoting the economic increase of the main responsibility。Traffic bank(4.44,0.03,0.68%)Financial research center report is expected，Future international economic growth in the short term to improved obviously，The market downturn will continue。Together with the domestic export enterprise operating costs rise，Difficult to export to fundamental change，The whole future export growth may be running at only 10%。

　　据了解，外贸企业整体仍然承压，订单减少、利润减少、现金流紧张，这些都制约了出口额，尤其是传统制造行业。

According to understand，Foreign trade enterprise overall still confined，Orders fell、profits、Cash flow nervous，These restrain exports，Especially the traditional manufacturing industry。

　　上海丝绸集团董事长徐伟民告诉记者，从公司情况来看，1-6月份出口个位数增长，到7月份则呈现下降趋势。“下半年不如上半年，明年不如今年，”徐伟民判断，“主要原因一来是需求减少，二来是企业的综合成本仍在上涨。”

Shanghai silk group President XuWeiMin told reporters，Judging from the company，1-June export single-digit growth，In July, has declined。“As the second half of the first half，Next year this year than，”XuWeiMin judgment，“The main reason is way less demand，Two of the enterprise is comprehensive cost is still on the rise。”

　　贸易数据疲软，加上此前公布的实体经济数据的疲弱表现，澳新银行大中华区经济研究总监刘利刚预计，决策层将陆续出台税收支持政策来支持进出口。刘利刚建议，必须更快进行政策放松，各部门之间也需要保持高度的政策协调，否则10%的全年贸易增速目标可能难以完成。

Trade data weak，And the real economy, said the data of the weak performance，Bank of Australia in the greater China region economic research director LiuLiGang expected，Executives will support comes on stage in succession to support the import and export tax policy。LiuLiGang Suggestions，Must be faster on policy to relax，Between various departments also need to maintain a high level of policy coordination，Or 10% of the annual trade growth goals may be difficult to complete。

　　成本加大、外需减少，让大批外贸企业在内忧外患中求生存。与此同时，外资品牌纷纷将其在华制造工厂外迁，无疑也是国内代工企业必须面对的一个现实问题。

Cost increase、Domestic-demand reduce，Let a large number of foreign trade enterprise in the internal conflicts in trouble and survival。At the same time，Foreign brand in China have moved outside the manufacturing plant，No doubt it is the domestic OEM enterprise must face a real problem。

　　阿迪达斯近日宣布关闭其在华唯一一家直属工厂。业内人士普遍认为，国内生产成本的逐渐提升，是阿迪达斯公司关闭在华工厂的主因。

Adidas recently announced that shut down its affiliated factory is the only one in China。Industry insiders generally thought，Domestic production cost gradually enhanced，Adidas is the main reason of the factory closed in China。

　　“上海也有为阿迪达斯生产帽子的厂家，对这些企业而言，显然形成了不小的冲击，”上海出口商品协会会长冯郑州告诉记者，“实际上，像阿迪达斯这样关闭在华工厂另寻出路的还有很多，只是阿迪达斯比较有名引起了市场关注。”

“Shanghai has adidas produces hat manufacturers，For these companies，Apparently formed lots of impact，”Shanghai export commodities association President feng zhengzhou told reporters，“In fact，Like adidas so close in China factory find another way out of the lot，Just adidas relatively famous caused market focus。”

　　冯郑州向记者介绍近期调研情况时表示，“从政策层面而言，需要进一步优化企业的生存环境，金融服务配套；从产业角度来看，传统制造业和高端制造业要两条腿走路，传统产业要着重于升级换代，高新产业需要更多研发、人才的支持。中国制造的转型势在必行，但这并非意味着做帽子的去做高科技，而是转变经营方式，在设计、品牌、渠道等多方面提高服务水平。”(完)

Von zhengzhou introduces to the reporter recent investigation said，“From a policy for level，Need to further optimize enterprise survival environment，Financial service facilities；From the view of the industry，The traditional manufacturing industry and advanced manufacturing to walk on two legs，The traditional industry to focus on upgrading，Hi-tech industry needs more research and development、Talent support。The transformation of Chinese manufacturing is imperative，But this does not mean to do to do high-tech hat，But change the way it does business，In the design、brand、Channel and so on various improve service levels。”(finish)