欧阳晓红 杨思柳

OuYangXiaoGong YangSiLiu

　　此前似乎很多迹象都在表明，资金流正在大幅从中国向海外流走。身边移民海外的人增多让感受更加明显，而国家外汇管理局公布的外汇收支平衡数据中，资本和金融项目逆差似乎也在佐证这一点。

Previously seems to be a lot of the signs are in the show,Cash flow is greatly from China to overseas runoff.Side immigration overseas people increase let feel more apparent,And the state administration of foreign exchange announced foreign exchange balance in the data,Capital and financial account deficit seems to have evidence to this point.

　　但事实上，“逃离”中国的资金远远小于市场想象的状况。这个秘密在外管局9月13日发布的第二季度国际收支平衡表中“透露”了出来。

But in fact,"Escape from"China's capital is far less than the market condition of imagination.The secret in the safe on September 13 release in the second quarter of the balance of payments"revealed"out.

　　从其他投资项上来看，今年上半年依然呈现较大净流出。2012　年上半年，其他投资项下净流出 979亿美元，这比2011年同期净流入798亿美元有很大的增加。但是，二季度国际收支平衡表有一个数据显示，其他投资项下的货币和存款净流出639亿美元。

Other investment from a point of view,In the first half of this year is still present large net outflow.In the first half of 2012,Other investment captioned net outflows of $97.9 billion,This than the same period in 2011 $79.8 billion net has a great increase.but,The second quarter balance of payments have a data display,Other investment captioned currency and deposit net outflows of $63.9 billion.

　　其他投资项是指，直接投资与证券投资之外，一国与其他国家之间的资金和资产往来，包括贸易信贷、贷款、存款。“秘密就在这里。”对外经贸大学兼职教授赵庆明说，“境内银行多出来的外汇存款要用出去，主要是存放境外同业和向境外放贷。”因此，这639亿美元并非真正的资金外逃。要知道这占据了今年二季度其它投资项目下资产净流出额1214亿美元的一半以上。

Other investment item is refers to,Direct investment and securities investment outside,One country and other countries between capital and assets exchanges,Including trade credit/loan/deposit."The secret is here."Foreign economic and trade university part-time professor ZhaoQing speaking plainly,"Domestic Banks more out of the foreign exchange deposit with out,Mainly deposited overseas trade and to foreign lending."therefore,The $63.9 billion is not the real capital flight.To know the occupied in the second quarter of this year other investment project assets net outflows of $121.4 billion more than half.

　　而央行数据昭示，8月份的外汇存贷形态已悄然生变——外汇存款增速相对放缓，外汇贷款提速，一改之前“资产外币化，负债本币化”的趋势。

And the central bank data shows,August foreign exchange deposit form has quietly happen - foreign exchange deposit growth relatively slow,Foreign exchange loan speed-up,Change before"Assets change foreign currency,Liabilities currencies change"trend.

　　“秘密” "secret"

　　事实上，上半年国际收支报告中表明，证券投资资金的流入在快速增长。今年上半年，证券投资项下净流入 204　亿美元，同比增长 1.4　倍。但证券类投资的特征是稳定性不强，即“来得快去得快”。

In fact,International balance of payments during the first half report shows that,Securities investment fund inflows in rapid growth.In the first half of this year,A net inflow of securities investment under $20.4 billion,Year-on-year growth of 1.4 times.But securities investment is characterized by the stability is not strong,namely"Go faster".

　　另外，二季度收支平衡显示，在资本和金融项目下的其他投资中，贸易信贷为-336亿美元，这是二季度资产净流出额1214亿美元的四分之一。

In addition,Balance shows that the second quarter,In the capital and financial projects of other investment,Trade credit for $33.6 billion -, -,This is the second quarter assets net outflows of $121.4 billion a quarter.

　　赵庆明说，这不难理解，稳出口，想让老外买东西，有时候还要向其提供信贷支持。也不乏境内银行将外汇存放于境外同业。此外是贷款项-251亿美元。事实上，这缘于自2012年以来，银行外汇存款的增长迅速——央行数据显示，上半年累计增加 1301亿美元，同比多增 994　亿美元。“人民币升值预期改变，外币资产、贸易信贷、存贷款等三重因素构成流出的主因。”赵庆明解释说，银行有大量外汇存款，但境内又缺乏合适的外汇投资渠道，因此，即便利差很小，也不得不存放境外同业。于是，在国际收支平衡表上的639亿美元体现为流出。但这并非真正的资金出逃。

ZhaoQing testified,It is not difficult to understand,Steady export,Want to let foreigners to buy things,Sometimes also to supply the credit support.Also there is no lack of domestic foreign exchange bank will be deposited in the foreign trade.In addition is DaiKuanXiang - $25.1 billion.In fact,This is due to since 2012,The rapid growth of foreign exchange deposit bank - the bank data display,The accumulated increase in the first half of 130.1 billion dollars,More than $99.4 billion year-on-year increase."The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to change,Foreign currency assets/Trade credit/Triple factors such as loan outflow cause."ZhaoQingMing explained,Banks have a large number of foreign exchange deposit,But the lack of appropriate domestic and foreign exchange investment channels,therefore,Even if carry small,Also had to be kept outside trade.so,In the balance of payments of $63.9 billion embodied in outflow.But this is not the real capital run away.

　　这也是不久前中行、农行、工行下调外汇存款利率的原因之一。中行行长李礼辉在中报发布会上说，今年上半年中行净息差减少的重要因素是国际市场发生变化，大量避险资金进入银行体系，中行的外汇资金增加较多，而把有的资金放在中央银行，回报较低，由此也拉低中行的利差水平。为此，调整了外币存款的定价政策。

This is also not long ago bank of China/Agriculture bank/Icbc foreign exchange deposit interest rate cut one of the reasons.Bank of China governor LiLiHui in the center daily news conference,In the first half of this year to reduce bank net spreads the important factor is the international market change,A large number of hedge funds into the banking system,The bank's foreign exchange capital increase more,And put some money in the central bank,Returns is low,It also down central interest margin level.therefore,Adjusted the foreign currency deposit pricing policy.

　　宏源证券(000562,股吧)固定收益首席分析师范为(博客,微博)用“残差法”测算一季度流出1500亿。他说，根据货币区总财富理论、购买力平价、汇兑心理学、汇率目标区理论，均表明人民币已经不再被低估。资产配置的大背景从过去的“人民币被低估”转换为“人民币至少已处于均衡汇率”。

Hongyuan securities(000562,guba)Fixed income chief analysis for teachers(blog,Micro bo)with"Residual method"In the first quarter 150 billion measure out.He said,According to the currency area total wealth theory/Purchasing power parity/Exchange psychology/Exchange rate target zone theory,Indicate that the yuan is no longer be underestimated.The background of the asset allocation from the past"The yuan is undervalued"Conversion for"RMB at least already in the equilibrium exchange rate".

　　“处于均衡状态的人民币未来作为风险货币将出现在全球市场。”范为说。

"In the equilibrium state of the renminbi in the next as risk currency will appear in the global market."Fan said for.

　　此外，外管局报告分析，人民币升值预期减弱后，企业调整财务运作是主因，单纯积累外汇资产、看空人民币的现象不明显。

In addition,Safe analysis report,The appreciation of the renminbi is expected after weakened,Enterprise adjust financial operations is the main reason,Simple accumulation of foreign currency assets/See empty RMB phenomenon is not obvious.

　　数据显示，2012　年上半年我国资本和金融项目顺差 149亿美元，其中第二季度为逆差412　亿美元。外管局认为，这主要是受国内外因素的共同影响，但不等于外资大规模集中撤离。理论上，经常项目顺差大于外汇储备增加额，意味着我国境内机构和个人资本呈现净输出（即国际收支平衡表中资本项目逆差）、对外净资产增多。

Data display,In the first half of 2012 China's capital and financial account surplus of $14.9 billion,In the second quarter of 41.2 billion dollars for the deficit.Safe think,This is mainly by the common influence factors at home and abroad,But is not equal to the mass concentration of foreign evacuation.In theory,A current account surplus is greater than the foreign exchange reserve accrual,Means within the territory of China institutions and personal capital present net output(That is in the balance of payments capital account deficit)/More foreign net assets.

　　尤其是 “2012年4月份进一步扩大人民币汇率浮动区间，大幅减少央行外汇干预以后，更加强化了这种经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的国际收支自主平衡格局。”报告称。

especially "April 2012 to further expand the range of floating exchange rate,The central bank sharply reduce foreign exchange after intervention,Reinforce the current-account surplus/Capital account deficit balance of payments independent balance pattern."The report says.

　　不过，央行最新数据显示，8月外币存款仅增加26亿美元，但贷款新增117亿美元，货币形态似乎发生逆转，一改自去年底至今年7月份的“资产外币化，负债本币化”态势。“这有外币存贷形式再次转向的迹象。”赵庆明说。

but,The central bank the latest data display,August foreign currency deposit is only $2.6 billion,But loans increased by 11.7 billion dollars,Monetary form seems to be reversed,A change to the end of this year in July"Assets change foreign currency,Liabilities currencies change"situation."This have foreign currency loan form again to sign."ZhaoQing testified.

　　流动性拐点 Liquidity inflection point

　　微观方面，与日俱增的移民潮却又在昭示资金在流出。一位身价10亿元左右的民营企业家许少华欲分散配置其资产，准备移民澳洲。他打算在一年之内通过合法的方式转移5个亿出境。而所谓合法方式包括投资澳洲的矿业，届时定能获得外管局的购汇额度。因为支持企业“走出去”是国家战略。

Microscopic aspects,Growing immigrant tide but the shows funds in the outflow.A man worth 1 billion yuan of private entrepreneurs to XuShaoHua distributed in its assets,Ready to immigration Australia.He is going to within a year through the legal way to transfer 5 exit.The so-called legal means including investment Australian mining,At the appointed time will surely achieve the safe quota.Support for enterprise"Go out"Is the national strategy.

　　其实，许少华的哥哥已先行一步，其在数年前投资澳洲，依靠其自身能力与实力成为当地颇具声望的商界精英，并拥有一定的社会地位。像许氏兄弟这样的移民故事每天都在发生。

In fact,XuShaoHua brother has one step ahead,In the several years ago investment Australia,Rely on its own ability and strength and become a local the prestigious academicjournals business elite,And has certain social status.Like hui brother such immigration story happen every day.

　　就此，鹏海辰移民留学咨询公司总经理说，这是潮流，也是趋势。资金和生活资源、教育资源都在一个更宽广的范围内重新配置和流通。

In this,Peng sea Calvin immigration study abroad consulting company general manager said,This is the trend,Is trend.Money and life resources/Education resources are in a broader range reconfiguration and circulation.

　　但愈演愈烈的移民潮背后可能是中国流动性拐点已至的现实。报告表明，2012年第二季度，我国经常项目顺差537亿美元；资本和金融项目逆差412亿美元等，其中，直接投资净流入411亿美元，证券投资净流入111亿美元，其他投资净流出944亿美元。国际储备资产减少118亿美元（不含汇率、价格等非交易价值变动影响），其中，外汇储备资产减少112亿美元。

But increasingly behind of immigration may be China's liquidity inflection point has to reality.The report shows that,The second quarter of 2012,Our country current account surplus of $53.7 billion;Capital and financial account deficit of $41.2 billion, etc,the,Direct investment $41.1 billion net,Securities investment net inflow of $11.1 billion,Other net investment outflows of $94.4 billion.International reserve assets to reduce 11.8 billion dollars(Does not contain the exchange rate/Price not trade value change influence),the,Foreign exchange reserve assets to reduce 11.2 billion dollars.

　　国际收支保持“双顺差”。2012　年上半年，经常项目顺差 772　亿美元，同比下降 12%；资本和金融项目顺差 149　亿美元，下降 92%。

Balance of payments to keep"Double surplus".In the first half of 2012,A current account surplus of $77.2 billion,12% year-on-year drop;Capital and financial account surplus of $14.9 billion,Fell by 92%.

　　尽管，国际收支依然是“双顺差”，但这却是自2006年来的7年里，这一顺差首次缩减为三位数，以往均是四位数。经常项目占GDP之比例也创出7年来的最低——2.1%。

although,International balance of payment is still"Double surplus",But this is since the 2006 years of 7 years,The surplus for the first time reduced to three digits,In the past are four digits.Often project of GDP proportion also makes the lowest 7-2.1%.

　　事实上，一向受国际资本追捧的中国市场，包括人民币近来都有点受到“冷遇”。但就趋于改善的国际收支状况而言，这些未必是件坏事。

In fact,Always be international capital sought after the Chinese market,Including RMB has a little by"disesteem".But will tend to improve the balance of payments in the present,This is not necessarily a bad thing.

　　外管局认为，人民币汇率目前趋向合理均衡水平。在央行大幅减少外汇干预后，市场供求决定汇率、汇率调节市场供求的自主机制更加稳固。上半年，境内外远期市场人民币对美元汇率时升时贬、有强有弱，报告显示，当前人民币汇率处于市场认可的合理水平，不存在大规模看空人民币。

Safe think,The RMB exchange rate trend at present reasonable equilibrium level.In the central bank sharply reduce foreign exchange after intervention,The market supply and demand decided to exchange rate/Exchange rate to regulate the market supply and demand independent mechanism more solid.In the first half of,Forward market both at home and abroad, the RMB against the us dollar exchange rate rise when those when/Weak or strong,The report shows that,The current RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level of market acceptance,Does not exist large-scale look empty RMB.

　　此外，外管局认为，我国资本流入具有较强的稳定性。报告称，外国直接投资是“金砖国家”最主要的资本流入渠道，我国尤为明显。在流量方面，2005-2011年，外国直接投资累计净流入1.15万亿美元，占同期我国资本净流入的120%，超过印度、俄罗斯、巴西流入总和；外国证券投资累计净流入1696亿美元，仅占我国同期资本净流入的18%，印度、巴西分别为31%、47%。在存量方面，2011年末外国直接投资占我国全部对外负债的61%，明显高于印度、俄罗斯、巴西（分别为32%、41%、44%），而证券投资的比重仅为8%，远低于上述三国（分别为24%、21%、44%）。“跨境资金流入以稳定性高的外国直接投资为主，意味着即使外部环境恶化，对风险最敏感、波动性大的证券投资撤离我国的影响也低于其他新兴市场。”外管局方面表示。

In addition,Safe think,China's capital inflows has strong stability.The report says,Foreign direct investment is"Nuggets countries"The main capital inflow channels,Particularly in our country.The flow in,2005-2011,Cumulative net inflow of foreign direct investment of $1.15 trillion,The same period accounted for 120% of the net inflow of capital in China,More than India/Russia/Brazil into the sum;The foreign securities investment cumulative net inflow of $169.6 billion,Accounted for only 18% of the net inflow of capital the same period in China,India/Brazil were 31%/47%.In the stock,By the end of 2011 foreign direct investment in China accounted for 61% of all foreign liabilities,Is obviously higher than that of India/Russia/Brazil(Were 32%/41%/44%),And the proportion of securities investment is only 8%,Far below the above three kingdoms(Were 24%/21%/44%)."Cross-border capital inflows to high stability of foreign direct investment primarily,Means that even if the external environmental deterioration,The most sensitive to risk/Volatility big securities investment evacuated the influence of our country is lower than other emerging market."Safe said.

　　不过，对此不能过于乐观。数据显示，上半年证券类投资增长加快，同比增1.4　倍。似乎暗示流入中国的资金中，不稳定“分子”的比重正在增加。但这也可能与外管局稳步推进资本项目开放有关。

but,It cannot be too optimistic.Data display,In the first half of the securities investment growth speeded up,Year-on-year increase of 1.4 times.Seems to imply that into China in the capital,unstable"molecular"The proportion is increasing.But it could also be safe and steadily on the open of capital items.

　　清华大学经济与管理学院金融系副教授何平认为，证券投资是短期投资行为，流动性较高，而直接投资是长期性投资，包括贸易信贷、货币、存款等也都是短期的，相信很多人是预期人民币贬值，通过贷款的形式和手段，在中短期卖空人民币。

Tsinghua university school of economy and management, an associate professor at finance HePing think,Securities investment is a short-term investment behavior,Higher liquidity,And direct investment is a long-term investment,Including trade credit/currency/Deposit are also short-term,Believe that a lot of people is expected that the devaluation of RMB,Through the loan form and means,In the short-term oversold RMB.

　　“我们可能需要担忧的是——如果直接投资中出现了长期性的流出。”何平说。

"We may need to worry is, if direct investment appeared in long-term outflow."HePingShui.