编者按：金融危机后，改革全球金融体系的呼声不断高涨，并在部分国家或地区付之实践。改革虽然在推进，但对一些涉及金融体系运行评价和分析的基础性问题，仍未被很好地理解和解决，而这将决定改革的进程和效果。在这些问题中，对金融体系自身对经济发展的作用和具体衡量，仍存争议。本文为英格兰银行副行长安德鲁?霍尔丹2010年7月14日在“金融体系的未来”会议上发表的演讲，虽成文已有一段时间，但所谈之观点及对具体技术方法的介评，对理解危机以来直至今日的金融监管改革，仍大有裨益。

Editor's note:After the financial crisis,Reform the global financial system call soaring,And in some countries or regions pay of the practice.Although the reform in advance,But for some involved in financial system operation evaluation and analysis of basic problems,Still not been very well understand and solve,And this will be decided to reform the process and the effect.In these problems,On the financial system to their own economic development and the role of specific measure,Remains controversial.The purpose of this paper is to the bank of England deputy President Andrew?Haldane on July 14, 2010 in"The future of the financial system"Conference speech,Although written for a period of time,But the views and talk to specific technology and methods of evaluation of interface,Since the crisis to understand until today's financial regulatory reform,Still is beneficial.

　　过去三年，金融危机的成本在任何角度上看都是巨大的。就像在历次金融危机中所发生的那样，很多国家的公共部门债务水平攀升，达到国民收入的两倍之多。以当期和未来总产出损失的现值估计，危机成本高达世界年均GDP的1～5倍。无论从哪方面来看，本轮危机带来的伤痛将伴随整整一代人。

For the past three years,The cost of financial crisis in any terms are huge.As in all previous financial crisis which happens,Many countries public sector rising debt levels,To achieve the national income twice as much.In the current and future output the present value of the estimated losses,Crisis cost as high as the world average GDP 1 ~ 5 times.No matter from which perspective,This crisis brings pain will accompany for a generation.

　　目前，全球都在热烈讨论金融改革这个话题。一些改革措施是对现有监管思路的延展或扩充——如更多高质量的资本以及流动性要求。其他人则提出对现有监管制度进行调整——如在审慎政策中考虑逆周期调整。还有人提议对金融业进行重新构造——如约束银行业规模及其范围界定。

At present,World is on a heated discussion financial reform this topic.Some reform measures is the extension of the existing regulatory thinking or expansion, such as more high quality capital and liquidity requirements.Others put forward to the existing regulatory system to adjust, such as in the prudent policy to consider countercyclical adjustment.There are proposed to the financial industry to structure, such as constraint banking scale and scope limits.

　　评估这些改革建议时，不但要关注金融危机的成本，还应权衡金融的持续收益。这就需要理解并衡量金融部门对实体经济发展的贡献。理解和衡量金融体系的贡献对于理解过去（金融业的作用不断增强）和规划未来（金融的作用有可能收缩）非常重要。

Evaluate these reform Suggestions,Not only should pay attention to the cost of the financial crisis,Still should weigh the financial continued income.This needs to understand and to measure the financial sector to the real contribution to economic development.Understanding and measure the contribution of the financial system to understand the past(The role of the financial industry to enhance)And future(The role of financial may contraction)Very important.

　　知易行难。最近发生的事件表明这的确是一个难题。2008年9月，雷曼兄弟破产引发了金融市场一系列反应，使得金融体系和世界上许多最大的金融机构濒临倒闭。2008年四季度，主要全球性银行股价平均下降了50%左右，市值损失达6400亿美元，导致全球GDP和贸易量同比分别下降6%和25%。银行体系在一定程度上引发了这轮自“大萧条”以来最严重的经济衰退。

Easier said than done..Recent events show that it is a difficult problem.In September of 2008,Lehman brothers bankruptcy triggered a financial market a series of reaction,Have made the financial system and many of the world's largest financial institutions on the verge of collapse.In the fourth quarter of 2008,The main global bank stock average fell 50%,Market value loss of us $640 billion,Lead to global GDP and trade volume decreased by 6% and 25% respectively compared to the.The bank system to a certain extent, have initiated the wheel from"depression"The worst downturn since the.

　　然而，利用官方数据估计的金融部门贡献却大相径庭。按照国民账户核算，2008年四季度，英国金融部门名义总增加值（GVA）以前所未有的速度增长，英国金融部门对总经济产值的直接贡献度提高至9%。金融公司的总经营盈余（GVA扣除员工薪酬和其他生产税）增长了50亿英镑，达到200亿英镑，呈现前所未有的单季增速。正当人们认为银行业对经济的贡献是自20世纪30年代以来最差的时，国民账户核算的结果却表明，金融部门对经济的贡献是自20世纪80年代中期以来最突出的。

however,Utilizing the official data estimation of financial department contribution but vary widely.According to the national accounts accounting,In the fourth quarter of 2008,Britain's financial department name always added value(GVA)With unprecedented speed growth,Britain's financial department to the total economic output value increase to 9% of the direct contribution.Financial company's operating earnings(GVA deduct staff salary and other production tax)Growth for 5 billion pounds,To reach 20 billion pound,For present unprecedented growth.As people think that banking for economic contribution is since the 1930 s when the worst,The national accounts accounting results suggests,The financial departments to economic contribution is since the 1980 s the most prominent.

　　本文的目的就是解释这一悖论。本文将先后考察金融部门增加值的传统计量方法及其演变，分析推动经济增长的要素——劳动力和资本投入量，以及这些要素的回报率。实际上，至少从数据上来看，银行在过去几十年中经历了一场“生产率奇迹”。随后，将详细探究银行获得高收益的定量因素，并探究相关的银行商业活动。我们发现，金融业的高收益源于风险的“幻觉”而不是“生产率奇迹”，银行正在经历的事件同时充斥着“幻觉”和“奇迹”。

The purpose of this paper is to explain the paradox.This paper will study the added value of the financial sector has the traditional measurement method and its evolution,Analysis the driving force of economic growth, the elements of Labour and capital input,And these elements of the rate of return.In fact,At least from the data point of view,The bank in the past few years has experienced a"Productivity miracle".then,To explore the detailed bank be rewarded with high returns for the quantitative factors,And explore relevant bank business activities.We found,The financial industry of high income from risk"illusion"not"Productivity miracle",The bank is the incident of experience at the same time full of"illusion"and"miracle".

　　如何衡量金融部门总产出

How to measure the financial sector output

　　总增加值（GVA）

Total added value(GVA)

　　总增加值（GVA）是衡量一个部门对经济总产出贡献度的标准方法。GVA定义为一个部门或产业的生产总值减去中间消费（生产过程中损耗的商品和服务），该指标只计算某一特定部门对经济的直接贡献。当然，金融部门的非直接贡献——如为创业或启动新投资项目提供资金从而提高生产力——也是非常重要的，但我们可以通过观测GVA的历史演进来获取初步信息。

Total added value(GVA)Is the measure of a department of economic output of contribution to the standard method.GVA defined as a department or industry production value minus the intermediate consumption(The production process of loss of goods and services),The index calculation only a particular department of economic direct contribution.Of course,The financial departments of the direct contribution, such as for start a business or start new investment projects with capital so as to improve productivity, is also very important,But we can through the observation of the evolution of the GVA to obtain preliminary information.

　　图1描绘了自19世纪中期以来，英国金融部门和经济总产出的实际GVA变化情况（恒定价格水平并以1975年指标为基准数）。表1将金融增长和经济总产出分为3个阶段：一战前、从一战到20世纪70年代早期、从20世纪70年代早期至今。金融部门GVA的变化趋势引人注目。

Figure 1 represents since since the mid 19th century,Britain's financial department and economic output of the actual GVA changes(Constant price level and in 1975 index for reference number).Table 1 will financial growth and economic output is divided into three stages:A war/From the first world war to the early 1970 s/Since the early 1970 s.The financial departments GVA the change tendency of the conspicuous.

　　在过去160年里，金融部门以平均每年高于整体经济两个多百分点的速度增长。换句话说，自1850年以来，金融部门增加值增幅是整体经济增加值增幅的两倍多。这并不令人惊讶，在过去的一个多世纪，大多数发达国家和发展中经济体都经历了金融深化的过程，金融部门上升的结构性趋势对整体经济增长产生了积极作用。

In the past 160 years,The financial departments in a year on average than overall economic more than two percentage points speed growth.In other words,Since 1850,The added value of the financial sector growth is the overall growth of economic value added (Eva) more than twice.This is not surprising,In the past more than one century,Most developed countries and developing economies experienced the process of financial deepening,The financial departments of the structural trend rise to the whole economic growth have a positive role.

　　然而，不同时期的数据表明该趋势并非线性。一战前的金融深化非常迅速，同时产生了股份制银行，以满足非金融部门迅速增长的需要。这一时期，金融部门增长速度几乎达到实体经济的4倍。

however,Different periods of data show that the trend is not linear.A pre-war financial deepening very quickly,Also produced the joint-stock Banks,In order to meet the needs of the non-financial department rapid growth.This period,The financial sector to the real economy growth rate almost four times.

　　第二个时期（从一战到20世纪70年代初）则呈现出相反的趋势。金融部门增长落后于其他经济部门的增长。这在一定程度上反映了加强对金融部门的量化控制和政府监管的影响。

The second period(From the first world war to the early 1970 s)They show the contrary trend.The financial sector growth lag behind other economic sector growth.This, to a certain extent, reflects the financial departments to strengthen quantitative control and the influence of government supervision.

　　从20世纪70年代初至2007年则出现了新的转折。在金融自由化的影响下，金融部门以平均每年超过非金融经济部门1.5%的速度增长，这一趋势从20世纪80年代初开始加速。1980～2008年，金融中介部门实际增加值扩大了3倍以上，而同期整体经济产出仅增加了两倍。

From the 1970 s to 2007 have a new twist.Under the influence of the financial liberalization,The financial departments to average more than non-financial economy department rate of 1.5% growth,This trend began in the early 1980 s accelerated.1980 ~ 2008,Financial intermediary departments of the added value of the actual expand 3 times,Over the same period, the overall economic output increased only two times.

　　2007年，金融中介对经济总增加值的贡献率为8%，而1970年为5%。金融中介总经营盈余表现出更为明显的增长，1948年至1978年间，金融中介利润平均占整体经济利润的1.5%，到2008年，该比率已经高达15%，为原来的10倍。

In 2007,,Financial intermediary to economy accounted for 8% of China's total added value,Compared to 5% in 1970.Financial intermediary total operating surplus show more obvious growth,Between 1948 and 1978,Financial intermediary profit average accounts for 1.5% of the overall economic profit,By 2008,This ratio is as high as 15%,For the original 10 times.

　　在全球范围内，其他国家也呈现出相似的趋势。美国“大萧条”时期，金融部门的增加值明显下降，二战后开始持续上升。美国金融部门GVA占GDP的比例从20世纪50年代的2%上升至目前的8%左右，上升了四倍。欧洲和亚洲也存在类似情况。根据英国《银行家》杂志的数据，世界上最大的1000个银行在2007～2008财政年度的总税前利润近8000亿美元，比2000～2001财政年度高出150%，银行年均收益率近15%。

In the global scope,Other countries have shown a similar trend.The United States"depression"period,The financial departments of the added value decreased obviously,After the second world war began to continue to rise.The United States financial department GVA the proportion of GDP from the 1950 s to the present 2% 8%,Increased four times.Europe and Asia is in a similar situation.According to the British[bankers]Magazine data,The world's largest 1000 Banks in 2007 ~ 2008 fiscal year total pre-tax profit nearly $800 billion,More than 2000 ~ 150% higher than the 2001 fiscal year,Bank average yield nearly 15%.

　　金融部门的增加值和利润变化，尤其是近期爆炸性增长的趋势，同样体现在金融公司（与非金融企业相比）的市值估计中。2002年至2007年间，英国、美国和欧元区的各大银行股东总收益累积上升了150%，超过了非金融部门和一些高风险金融部门（如对冲基金）的收益。

The financial departments of the added value and profit change,Especially in the recent trend of explosive growth,Also reflected in financial company(Compared with non-financial enterprises)In the market value of the estimated.Between 2002 and 2007,British/The United States and the euro area's each big bank shareholders' earnings accumulated rose by 150%,More than the non-financial department and some high risk financial department(Such as hedge funds)earnings.

　　为更好地说明这一点，假设在1900年买入100英镑的金融股并卖出同样数量的非金融股作为对冲。图2显示了执行该对冲策略的收益。从1900年到20世纪70年代末，收益微乎其微，金融和非金融部门收益上升和下降总体同步；20世纪70年代末到2007年，对金融部门投资的累积收益大幅飙升，直到后来发生金融危机，泡沫破灭后收益骤然下降。

To better illustrate this point,Hypothesis in 1900 to buy 100 pounds to sell the same amount of financial and non-financial shares as a hedge.Figure 2 shows that carry out the hedge strategy income.From 1900 to the 1970 s,Income very little,Financial and non-financial department income rising and falling overall synchronization;The 1970 s to 2007,On the financial departments of the accumulation of investment profits have soared,Until the financial crisis happened,After the bubble burst slashed earnings.

　　测算GVA

GVA measure

　　为了理解这些趋势，首先要评估目前金融部门的增加值的计量方法，以及衡量金融部门对经济贡献度时，计算方法可能带来的问题。

In order to understand these trends,First of all to evaluate current financial departments of the added value of measuring method,And measure the financial departments on the economy when contribution,Calculation method may lead to problems.

　　大多数部门对所提供的产品或服务都有明确收费，并为所购买的原材料支付明确的费用，因此，增加值可以直接计算出来。例如，一个二手车交易商的总产出可以根据所卖出车辆的现金计算，其增加值可以通过从总产出中减去中间费用——买入车辆的价值——来计算。

Most of the department to provide products or services are clearly charge,And for the purchase of raw materials to pay the cost of the clear,therefore,Added value can be directly calculated.For example,A used car dealers are worked out according to the vehicle can sell cash calculation,Its added value can pass from output minus the cost of middle - buy vehicle value, to calculate.

　　金融部门提供的某些服务也可以通过这种方式来计算。例如，投资银行在从事并购咨询时向客户明码标价，在开展承销或做市业务时也会向客户收取一定费用或佣金，但这些直接费用只占金融体系总收入的一部分。金融部门——尤其是商业银行——依赖利率作为其服务收费和费用制订的标准。银行靠赚取利差来提供中介服务。

The financial departments provide some service can also in this way to calculate.For example,Investment bank is engaged in merger and acquisition of consultation to the customer plain code marks a price,In developing the underwriting or do city business will also to customer for a fee or commission,But these direct costs account for only part of the total revenue financial system.The financial departments - especially commercial bank, depend on the interest rates as the service charges and expenses for standard.Banks rely on earn interest margin to provide intermediary services.

　　为衡量通过利差而产生的金融服务价值，全球普遍采用了“间接测算的金融中介服务（FISIM）”概念。该概念是1993年联合国国民账户体系（SNA）更新时被引入的。SNA显示，金融中介机构为消费者、企业、政府等提供以下相关服务却没有明确收费。这些服务包括：接受、管理和转移存款、提供灵活的付款机制（如借记卡）、提供贷款或其他投资、提供金融咨询或其他商业服务。

In order to measure through the interest margin and produce financial service value,Global universal adopted"Indirect measurement of financial intermediary services(FISIM)"concept.This concept is the 1993 UN national account system(SNA)When the update is introduced.SNA display,Financial intermediaries for consumers/enterprise/The government provide the following services but no clear charges.These services include:accept/Management and transfer deposit/Provide flexible payment mechanism(Such as debit card)/Providing loans or other investment/Provide financial advisory and other business services.

　　FISIM只测算贷款和存款。测算基于有效利率（应付和应收）和“参考”利率的差值，乘以存贷款的余额。根据SNA规定，“参考利率代表借入资金的纯粹成本——在最大程度上消除了风险溢价，并不包括任何中间服务”。例如，有一笔1000英镑的贷款，应收利率为9%，参考利率为4%，则其间接测算的金融中介服务现行价值为“1000×（9%-4%）=50英镑”。有一笔1000英镑的存款，应付利率为3%，参考利率为4%，则其间接测算的金融中介服务现行价值为“1000×（4%-3%）=10英镑”。

FISIM only measure loan and deposit.Estimates based on the effective interest rate(Payable and receivable)and"reference"Interest rate differential,Multiplied by the balance of the loan.Based on SNA provisions,"Reference interest rates on behalf of the borrowed funds of pure cost - in which maximum except risk premium,Do not include any intermediate service".For example,A loan of 1000 francs,Accounts receivable interest rate is 9%,Reference interest rate is 4%,The indirect measurement of financial intermediary services for the current value"1000 x(9% - 4%)= 50 pounds".A sum of 1000 pounds in savings,Deal with interest rate is 3%,Reference interest rate is 4%,The indirect measurement of financial intermediary services for the current value"1000 x(4% - 3%)= 10 pounds".

　　FISIM的计量方法面临概念和计算上的双重困难。在二手车交易商的例子中，统计者可以使用汽车出售数量作为总产出量的指标。但对于金融部门来说，却没有类似的计量指标，对同一客户发放两笔50英镑的贷款，是否比发放一笔100英镑的贷款的交易量更高？传统做法是按恒定价格计算FISIM。在英国，实际FISIM等于基准年的利差乘以适当的存贷数量指标。存贷数量指标的估计需要经过去通货膨胀效应来处理。这种方法意味着，由利差变动导致的当前价格下的FISIM波动不影响实际FISIM。

FISIM measures face concept and calculation in the double difficulty.In the second hand car dealer example,Statisticians can use car sale quantity as the general output index.But for the financial sector is,But no similar measurement index,To the same customer issue two pen 50 pounds worth of loans,To see if it is better than issuing a sum of 100 pounds of loan of higher volume?The traditional approach is by constant price calculation FISIM.In Britain,The actual FISIM equal to benchmark year interest margin multiplied by the appropriate deposit-loan quantitative index.Deposit-loan quantitative index estimates need to pass to inflation effect to deal with.This method means,By the spread to change the current price of the FISIM fluctuation does not affect the actual FISIM.

　　重新定义FISIM

Redefine FISIM

　　虽然将FISIM引入国民核算是一项重大进步，但这种方法在计算金融部门对经济贡献时也可能存在问题。关键在于，风险承担的功能应在多大程度上被视为银行体系提供的生产性服务。

Although will FISIM into national accounting is a big progress,But this method in the calculation of the financial sector to economic rate may also existing problems.The key lies in,The function of risk bearing should be in to what extent is considered as the banking system to provide productive service.

　　风险调整后的FISIM。当前FISIM的测算方法采用无风险政策利率来衡量参考利率，银行因承担风险得到的收益属于名义产出的一部分。这可能带来一些意想不到的结果。例如，假设像2008年发生的那样，违约风险和流动性风险呈现整体上升趋势，银行将会理性地通过提高利率来应对预期损失的增加。在FISIM框架下，由此导致的利息收入增加却被视为产出的增长。换句话说，当风险增加时，金融部门对实体经济的贡献可能会被高估。这就解释了2008年四季度国民账户核算中，金融部门对名义GDP的贡献度竟然迅速增长这一悖论。

Risk adjusted FISIM.FISIM current measuring methods no risk policy interest rates to measure reference interest rates,Because the bank risk gain by name belongs to a part of the output.This may bring some unexpected results.For example,Assumptions like 2008 happens,Default risk and liquidity risk present the overall upward trend,The bank will rationally by increasing interest rates to deal with the increase of the expected loss.In the framework of FISIM,Which has led to interest income increase are regarded as output growth.In other words,When risk increases,The financial sector to the real economy contribution may be overvalued.It is explained in the fourth quarter 2008 national account in accounting,The financial departments to nominal GDP contribution unexpectedly rapid growth this paradox.

　　当然，金融部门承担着经济体中其他部门的风险。银行为家庭和企业承担期限错配或流动性风险。银行通过负债发放有风险的贷款，从而面临违约或清偿风险。然而，我们仍无法确定承担风险本身是否属于一种具有生产力的活动。若家庭或公司投资有风险的债券，他们同样承担信用和流动性风险。投资风险资产的行为是资本市场的一个基本特征，并非只存在于银行活动中。因此，从理论上来看，始终无法确定基于风险的收入是否应该被计入银行产出。

Of course,The financial departments responsible for economies the risk of other departments.Bank for family and enterprise bear maturity mismatch or liquidity risk.Bank through the debt issue risky loans,Thus face or the default risk.however,We are still not sure whether take the risk itself belongs to a kind of productive activities.If the family or company investment have risk bonds,They also take credit and liquidity risk.Investment risk assets capital market behavior is one of the basic characteristics,Not only exist in the bank activities.therefore,Theoretically to see,Still cannot determine whether based on risk income should be included in the bank output.

　　将计量和定价信用风险和流动性风险，视为有效运作的银行体系提供的、具有生产性的活动，可能更为合适。例如，当银行发放贷款时会评估、筛选借款人的信用等级，从而起到监管者的作用，而且通过财务运作来管理流动性风险，进而起到财务主管的作用。银行通过向客户收取利率的方式隐性地获得风险定价服务的酬金。

The measurement and pricing credit risk and liquidity risk,As of the effective operation of the bank system provides/Has the productive activities,May be more appropriate.For example,When the bank lending, evaluation/Screening the borrower's credit rating,Thus plays the role of the regulators,And through the financial operation to manage liquidity risk,Then play a finance executive role.Bank to the client through charge interest rate implicit way to get risk pricing service fee.

　　若剔除由于承担风险而获得的收益，可能会更好地反映金融部门的服务项目，这有几种不同的计算方法。可以采用准备金作为预期损失的指标来调整FISIM，也有人建议不再采用无风险利率作为FISIM的参考利率。例如，经合组织（OECD）国民账户工作组曾建议，计算FISIM应采用与存贷款期限和信用风险相匹配的基准利率。这也会避免与目前国民账户框架不一致的问题。如果银行承担了借款给一个公司的风险，测算出的金融中介产出会增加，但如果一个家庭持有此公司发行的债券并承担相同的风险，总产出将不变。

If due to eliminate the risk and the profits,May better reflect the financial departments of services,There are several different calculation methods.Can use reserve as expected damage index to adjust FISIM,Also it is suggested that no longer the risk-free interest rate as FISIM reference interest rates.For example,The oecd(OECD)National account group have suggested,FISIM calculation should be adopted and loan time limit and credit risk matching benchmark interest rate.This will also avoid and current national account framework inconsistent problems.If the bank for a loan to a company's risk,Work out financial intermediary output will increase,But if a family with this company is to issue bonds and bear the same risk,Output will be the same.

　　下面这个案例用来解释该机制如何运行。一家银行以年利率7%借出100英镑给一家公司，期限1年，无风险利率为5%。银行能准确评估该公司的信用风险为A级，到期日为1年的A级贷款的市场风险利率超过无风险利率1%。当期FISIM估计出的银行产出为2英镑（表2），而风险调整后的FISIM估计的银行产出为1英镑。

The following case is used to explain the mechanism how to run.A bank to annual rate 7% loan 100 pounds to a company,Period 1 year,The risk free rate is 5%.The bank can accurately evaluate the company's credit risk for A level,Due date for 1 year class A loan market risk rate exceeds the risk-free interest rate 1%.The current FISIM estimate the bank output to 2 pounds(Table 2),And risk adjusted FISIM estimated output bank for pound.

　　按照这些原则对FISIM进行调整可能产生很大的影响。对欧元区国家的模拟分析表明，根据这种方法，2003～2007年间风险调整后的FISIM仅为目前方法计算的FISIM的60%。

According to these principles FISIM to adjust may have a significant impact.For the eurozone countries simulation analysis shows that,According to this method,In the years 2003 ~ 2007 risk adjusted FISIM only for current method to calculate FISIM of 60%.

　　度量风险。风险调整后的FISIM更好地描述了金融部门对整体经济的贡献度。但是，一个首要问题是，风险本身不能被事先观察到。上述方法以一种相对的方式度量风险，即假设如果银行利率偏离市场利率，这种偏离是对银行为借款人和存款人提供服务的补偿。但是，我们却无法准确评估金融体系的风险定价能力。这也许不是统计学家统计产出时的目标，但对于衡量金融部门对经济产出的贡献却至关重要。

Measure risk.Risk adjusted FISIM better describe the financial sector to the whole economic contribution.but,The first problem is that,Risk itself cannot be observed in advance.The above method to a relatively way to measure risk,That is the assumption is that if the bank rate deviates from the market interest rates,This deviation is to bank for borrower and depositor service compensation.but,But we can't accurate assessment of the risk of financial system pricing power.This may not be statisticians statistical output when the target,But to measure the financial departments of the contribution of economic output is important.

　　下面的案例更清楚地解释该观点（表3）。银行向某公司发放100英镑的贷款，该公司实际信用级别为BB级，但银行错误地将该公司的信用评级设定为A级。假设该公司知道其信用风险高于A级，并准备支付高于A级信用风险的差价（如2%）。A级和BB级市场差价分别为1%和2%。相对于现行方法估计的FISIM，所计量的风险调整后FISIM有所改善，但与“真正”风险调整后的FISIM相比，仍高估了银行的产出值。

The following case more clearly explain the view(Table 3).A company issuing bank to £ 100 loan,The company actual credit ratings for BB level,But bank mistakenly will be the company's credit rating set to A level.Assume that the company know its credit risk is higher than A level,And are prepared to pay A level higher than the risk of credit spread(Such as 2%).A level and BB level market price difference were 1% and 2% respectively.Compared with the current methods of estimation FISIM,The measurement of risk adjustment FISIM after improved,But with"real"Risk adjusted FISIM compared,The bank is still overvalued output value.

　　这相当于二手车交易商持续出售劣质车辆，但狡猾的卖车人将很快被发现，风险是可观测的。汽车经销商不断定错价格，将被驱逐出市场，买家可能会选择网上交易。

This is equivalent to the used car dealers continued to sell inferior vehicle,But the tricky sell cars people will soon be found,Risk is observable.Car dealers constantly fixed wrong price,Will be out of the market,The buyer may choose to trade on the net.

　　无法对风险进行准确评估和定价的银行体系对经济体的贡献有限。风险的买家和卖家可以直接在资本市场交易——正如危机后发生的那样。不同于汽车交易，银行交易过程中的风险是不可观测的。因此，错误定价、错误估计银行为实体经济所做的贡献可能会持续。就像危机爆发前几年，市场对风险定价出现了系统性偏低。在这段时期内，使用风险的市场定价会导致统计学家系统性地高估金融部门的潜在贡献。

Can't the risks to accurate assessment and pricing of bank system for economy contribution limited.The risk of buyers and sellers can directly in the capital market transaction -- -- just as the crisis happens.Different from the automobile trade,In the process of bank transaction risk is not observed.therefore,mispricing/Error estimation bank as the entity economy do contribution may last.Like a few years before the outbreak of the crisis,Market for risk pricing appeared systemic is low.In this period,Use risk market pricing will cause statisticians systematic overestimate the financial departments of the potential contribution.

　　通过改变FISIM中的参考利率，对银行产出的测算方法进行风险调整，是对现行方法的一种改进。但风险调整后的FISIM仍不能确保金融部门对风险的准确定价，因此仍难以评估银行为经济体提供服务的真正价值。除非风险的价格可以被度量，否则准确测算金融部门对经济的贡献似乎是不可能的。

Through the change of the FISIM reference interest rates,To bank output method of calculating of the risk adjustment,The current method is a kind of improvement.But the risk adjusted FISIM still cannot ensure that the financial sector to the risk of accurate pricing,So it is still difficult to assess bank as the economy to provide the true value of the services.Unless the price of risk can be metric,Otherwise the accurate estimates the financial departments to economic contribution seems to be impossible.

　　分解金融部门的贡献——“生产率奇迹”

Decomposition financial sector contribution --"Productivity miracle"

　　另一种考察金融部门贡献的方式是通过考察生产过程的投入。这可能会更好地揭示金融快速增长的根源。金融部门的扩张是因为金融部门使用了比其他部门更多的资源？或者所投入的生产要素具有不寻常的高收益？本部分将探讨这些问题。

Another look at financial department contribution way is through the investigation into the production process.This could better reveal the root cause of the financial rapid growth.The expansion of the financial sector because of the financial departments use than any other department more resources?Or input of production elements have unusual high yield?This section will discuss these problems.

　　增长核算分解

Growth accounting decomposition

　　增长核算基本框架将经济增长分解为所投入的各类生产要素（资本和劳动力）的贡献。这将GDP增长与劳动力投入增长和各种资本服务（建筑、运输、计算机和其他来源）增长结合起来。将这些要素都考虑在内，剩余的经济增长是由技术变动引起的——所谓的索洛余值。

The growth accounting basic framework will economic growth is decomposed into put all kinds of factors of production(Capital and labor)contribution.This will GDP growth and labor input growth and various capital service(building/transport/Computer and other sources)Growth combined.These factors are taken into account,The rest of the economic growth is caused by the technology changes - the so-called solow residual value.

　　过去40年，英国金融中介部门相对整体经济使用的劳动力和资本比例，呈现相同趋势，金融部门生产要素的投入增长高于整体经济平均水平。1977～1990年间，金融部门的劳动力投入比例增长了50%左右，而资本投入的比例由4%增至12%。在这一时期的金融自由化，导致相当大规模的生产要素投入到金融部门。

Over the past 40 years,Britain's financial intermediary departments relatively overall economic use of labor and capital ratio,Present the same trend,The financial departments production inputs than overall economic growth average level.From 1977 to 1990,The financial departments labor investment proportion increased by 50%,And the proportion of capital investment to 12% from 4%.In the period of the financial liberalization,Cause quite a large-scale production elements into the financial sector.

　　然而，令人诧异的是，进入21世纪却并未延续该趋势。随后一段时间内，金融部门的劳动力和资本投入份额经历了平缓下降。金融部门使用的劳动力和资本温和增长，低于整体经济中劳动力和资本的增长。生产要素投入份额下降，测算出的金融部门增加值却显著增长，金融部门生产率肯定发生了剧烈的变化——索洛余值。

however,Remarkably,In the 21st century has not continued the trend.After a period of time,The financial departments of labor and capital investment share experienced gentle decline.The financial departments use labor and capital moderate growth,Below the overall economy labor and capital growth.Production inputs share drop,Work out financial department but the added value of significant growth,The financial sector productivity sure has changed violently - solow residual value.

　　在增长核算的意义上，测算的余值反映了投入的全要素生产率（TFP）的提高。增长核算的分解表明，从1995年至2007年测算的金融部门全要素生产率达到年均2.2%，超过了同时期整体经济的全要素生产率（年均0.5%～1.0%）的增长水平。换句话说，至少从表面来看，有证据表明金融部门在本世纪经历了“生产率奇迹”，且并非仅发生在英国。1995～2007年，许多发达国家测算的金融部门全要素生产率增长超过了整体经济增长率，这一趋势在2003～2007年的“泡沫”形成时期不断加速。

In the growth accounting sense,Measuring residual reflects the investment of the total factor productivity(TFP)improve.The growth accounting decomposition show,From 1995 to 2007 years to calculate financial department total factor productivity achieve at 2.2% per year,Over the same period the overall economic total factor productivity(At an average annual rate of 0.5% ~ 1.0%)Levels of the growth.In other words,At least from the surface to see,There is evidence to show that the financial sector in this century has experienced"Productivity miracle",And not only occurs in the UK.1995 ~ 2007,Many developed countries measure of financial department total factor productivity growth than the overall economic growth rate,The trend in 2003 ~ 2007"foam"Formation has been accelerating period.

　　生产要素回报率

Factors of production rate of return

　　增长框架中的全要素生产率是按余值测算的，不能解释金融部门的“生产率奇迹”。一个相关的问题是，观察到的“生产率奇迹”是否能真正反映金融部门生产要素的回报率。GVA可以分解为流向劳动力（定义为只包括职工）的收入和流向资本的收入。从广义上讲，GVA的增长可以平分为劳动力回报（职工薪酬）和资本回报（总经营盈余）。这一“奇迹”如果未反映在使用的生产要素数量中，就应该体现在在劳动力和资本的回报中。

Growth framework of the total factor productivity is calculated according to the residual value,Cannot explain the financial department"Productivity miracle".A related problem is,observed"Productivity miracle"If you can truly reflect the financial departments the production elements of the rate of return.GVA can be decomposed to flow to the labor force(Defined as only includes worker)Income and flow to the capital income.In a broad sense,GVA growth can divide for labor return(Employee compensation)And capital returns(Total operating surplus).this"miracle"If not reflected in the use of production factor in number,You should reflect on the labor force and capital in return.

　　关于劳动力，高回报同时在截面数据和时间序列数据中显现出来。比较2007年英国不同行业的平均周薪，金融部门最高，每周平均收入约为整体经济中位数的两倍。进入21世纪以来，两者差距不断扩大，大致反映了金融部门的杠杆率累积。

On labor,High return at the same time in the cross section data and time series data show.Comparison in 2007 the English different industry average weekly wage,Financial sector highest,The average weekly income of about overall economic median two times.In the 21st century,Both gap,Generally reflected the financial department leverage accumulated.

　　时间序列数据更引人注目。在对美国金融业相对于基准工资的“超额”工资研究中，20世纪80年代初“超额”工资开始显著上升，90年代起又出现激增。在这之前唯一的一次类似工资激增的情况，发生在“大萧条”之前。这一研究将工资激增归因于金融管制放松。

Time series data more conspicuous.In the American financial industry relative to the benchmark wage"excess"Wage study,In the early 1980 s"excess"Wage began to rise significantly,The 90 s and a surge.Before that only a similar wage explosion situation,Happened in"depression"before.This research will wage explosion due to the financial control and relax.

　　与劳动力回报相比，资本回报的情况大致相同。20世纪50年代，金融部门的资本总盈利与其他经济部门基本一致。此后，尤其是在过去10年中，金融部门的资本回报远远超过了整体经济的平均水平。

Compared with the labor return,Returns on capital situation roughly the same.In the 1950 s,The financial departments of the total capital profit and other economic sectors are basically the same.Since then,Especially in the past 10 years,The financial departments of the capital return far more than the average level of the whole economy.

　　图3显示了英国银行业1920年来的股本收益率（ROE）。虽然股本收益率从另一角度衡量资本回报，但传达的信息大致相同。股本收益率的变化趋势明显分为两个时期。1970年之前，银行的股本收益率一直稳定保持在7%左右。换句话说，金融部门的回报与整体经济情况大致相同，与图2中执行对冲基金策略的累积收益结果相符。20世纪70年代则发生了结构性转变，之后银行股本收益率增长为原来的3倍，达到20%。资本和劳动力都累积了超额的回报。

Chart 3 shows the British banking 1920 years of rate of return on equity(ROE).Although the rate of return on equity from another Angle measure returns on capital,But the message roughly the same.Rate of return on equity changes trend obviously divided into two periods.1970 years ago,The bank rate of return on equity has been remained steady at around 7%.In other words,The financial departments returns and the overall economic situation roughly the same,And figure 2 executive hedge fund strategies of cumulative income with the experimental results.In the 1970 s there had been structural transformation,After the bank rate of return on equity growth for the original three times,Up to 20%.Capital and labor are cumulative the excess returns.

　　其他国家也经历了类似情况。图4描绘了21世纪以来，美国和欧洲主要国际活跃银行的股本收益率（ROE）。有两个特征非常引人注目：一是，危机前股本收益率一直保持在20%或以上，且呈现上升趋势，约为非金融部门股本收益率的两倍；二是，不同国家金融部门股本收益率趋势存在惊人的相似。这也不是巧合。在这段时期内，各国银行竞相获取更高的股本收益率。这也部分解释了银行部门劳动力和资本的高回报收益。

Other countries have experienced a similar situation.Figure 4 describes the 21st century,The United States and European main international active bank rate of return on equity(ROE).There are two features very conspicuous:One is,Before the crisis rate of return on equity has been maintained at 20% or above,And showed a rising trend,About non-financial department rate of return on equity two times;The second is,Different countries financial sector rate of return on equity trend there is a striking similarity.This is not a coincidence.In this period,World bank to obtain a higher rate of return on equity.It also partly explains the banking sector Labour and capital gains a high return.

　　（未完待续）

(To be continued)

　　（译者：中国银监会国际部，王胜邦、俞靓）

(translator:China banking regulatory commission (CBRC) international department,WangShengBang/YuJing)