宏观审慎政策的演变 The evolution of the macro prudent policy

　　“宏观审慎”这个术语在国际上提出可以追溯到20世纪70年代末期，而在公开的文件中出现是1986年，国际清算银行（BIS）在一份欧洲通货常务委员会的研究报告“国际银行业近期创新”的部分章节中提出了“宏观审慎政策”这一概念。在报告中这一概念被定义为“广泛的金融体系和支付机制的安全性和稳健性”。

"Macroscopic prudent"This term in the international puts forward can be traced back to the 1970 s,In public documents is appeared in 1986,The bank for international settlements(BIS)In a European currency of the standing committee of the study"The international banking recent innovation"Part of the chapter puts forward"Macroscopic prudent policy"This concept.In his report, this concept is defined as"A wide range of financial system and payment mechanism of security and robustness".

　　到了90年代末期，特别是1997年亚洲金融危机爆发，使宏观审慎备受关注。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在1998年1月份的报告——“健全的金融体系框架”指出了宏观审慎管理的重要性，提出了建立更完善的统计指标，来度量金融系统的脆弱性，即“宏观审慎指标”。这套宏观审慎监管指标体系包括加总的微观审慎指标和宏观经济指标两个部分。其中微观审慎指标主要包括资本充足率、资产质量、管理和流动性指标等单个机构稳健的金融指标；而宏观经济指标则包括经济增长、国际收支平衡、通货膨胀率等影响金融失衡的重要指标。这被纳入到了后来的金融部门评价计划。

In the 90 s,Especially the 1997 Asian financial crisis,Make macroscopic prudent concern.The international monetary fund(IMF)In January 1998, report --"Robust financial system frame"Points out the importance of macro prudent management,Puts forward a suggestion of building a more perfect statistical index,To measure of the vulnerability of the financial system,namely"Macroscopic prudent index".This macro prudential supervision index system including aggregation microscopic prudent index and macroeconomic indicators two parts.The microscopic prudent index mainly includes the capital adequacy ratio/Asset quality/Management and liquidity index and individual mechanism robust financial index;And the macro economic indicators, including economic growth/The balance of international payments/Inflation rate impact such as an important indicator of the financial imbalances.This is integrated into the later financial sector assessment program.

　　另一项关于宏观审慎的重要事件是，2000年时任国际清算银行总经理安浩德（Andrew Crockett）在银行监管者国际会议上所做的演讲。演讲报告中将微观审慎和宏观审慎这两种监管方法做了对比，认为金融稳定可以分为微观层面的和宏观层面的，而相对应的是保证单个金融机构的稳定为目标的微观审慎监管和保证整个金融体系稳定的宏观审慎监管。报告指出最主要的挑战是如何在微观审慎和宏观审慎管理之间达到平衡，将二者有机的结合起来。在此之后的BIS的工作文件和出版物中，这一概念界定也多次被重复使用。

Another about macro prudent important event is,In 2000 the bank for international settlements AnHaoDe general manager(Andrew Crockett)Bank regulators in international conference in speech.The speech will report the micro prudent and macro prudent these two kinds of supervision methods are compared,Think that the financial stability can be divided into micro level and macro level,And the corresponding is to guarantee the stability of the individual financial institutions as the goal of microscopic prudential supervision and ensure the entire financial system stability of macroscopic prudential supervision.The report says the main challenge is how to microscopic prudent and macro prudent management to achieve balance between,Will two organic combination.The BIS work documents and publications,The definition also many times by the repeated use.

　　金融稳定理事会（FSB）、IMF和BIS也对宏观审慎这个概念做出了官方界定，认为它主要为了减少系统性金融风险或者说这个系统范围的风险，主要元素包括：第一，其目的是降低系统性风险或者说整个金融体系中的风险；第二，分析对象的范畴是整个金融体系以及它与实体经济的联系；第三，工具组合为审慎管理的工具和指定宏观审慎当局采取的工具。

The financial stability board(FSB)/The IMF and BIS also and the macro prudent this concept made official definition,Think it mainly in order to reduce systemic financial risk or the system range of risk,The main elements include:The first,Its purpose is to reduce systemic risk in the financial system or the risk;The second,Analysis object category is the whole financial system and it with the entity economy contact;The third,Tool portfolio for prudent management tools and designated macroscopic prudent authorities take tools.

构建宏观审慎政策框架对于中国的意义重大 Constructing macroscopic prudent policy framework for China's is of great significance

　　每次金融危机的爆发，都预示着金融监管理论将发生重大的变革。此次金融危机，使得金融监管中长期存在的问题暴露出来，因此理论界和实务界达成共识，认为金融危机的根源来自监管的不利，而应该采取宏观审慎政策来支持金融体系的稳定和实体经济的稳定，而现代金融体系的系统性风险随着其高度发达而大大增加，仅仅依靠传统的微观审慎监管不能够完成维护金融体系稳定的作用：一是影子银行的快速发展伴随着商业银行负债方式的改变，使得私人货币的使用范围大大的扩展了，从而造成存款保险制度不能完全避免挤兑的发生。二是资产证券化使得金融机构持有了更有流动性的证券资产，在按市值计价的情况下，与未证券化的长期资产相比，金融市场波动的影响有可能加剧金融机构资产负债表的不平衡，造成金融系统的不稳定。三是随着金融机构对金融市场依赖性的日益加深，传统的货币传导机制也相应发生了变化甚至出现了“失灵”，货币政策的效能因此大大降低。经济金融体系的新变化给金融稳定带来了严峻的挑战。在复杂的金融体系下，传统的微观审慎监管已经难以独立承担维护金融稳定的任务，不仅如此，它还产生了顺周期性等问题，从而使得自己本身成为了影响金融稳定的一个因素。为此，各国包括美国、欧盟等相继提出了宏观审慎监管为核心内容的金融监管改革的方案。

Every time the outbreak of the financial crisis,All adumbrative financial regulation theory will take place great change.The financial crisis,Make long-term financial supervision problems exposed,So theorists and the practical realm reached an agreement,Think that the root of the financial crisis from supervision adverse,And should take macroscopic prudent policy to support the stability of the financial system and the real economy stability,Modern financial system and the systematic risk with its highly developed and increase greatly,Only by the traditional micro prudential supervision can not complete maintenance financial system stable function:One is the shadow Banks with the rapid development of the commercial bank liabilities to change in a way,Make private money using range greatly expanded,Resulting in deposit insurance system can't completely avoid the occurrence of a run on a bank.The second is that asset securitization of financial institutions that hold a more liquidity securities assets,In the mark-to-market of cases,And not the long-term assets securitization compared,The influence of the financial market volatility may aggravate financial institutions balance sheet imbalance,Cause the financial system unstable.The third is along with the financial institutions for financial markets deepening dependence,The traditional monetary transmission mechanism and corresponding changed even appeared"failure",Monetary policy effectiveness so greatly reduced.Economic and financial system of new changes to financial stability brought serious challenges.In the complex financial system,The traditional micro prudential supervision has been difficult to independently assume the task of maintaining financial stability,Not only that,It also produces the problems such as the periodic,So that his itself become the influence financial stability of a factor.therefore,Countries including the United States/The European Union, etc have put forward macro prudential supervision as the core content of financial regulatory reform scheme.

　　虽然此次全球金融危机对我国的金融体系并未产生重大冲击，但我国金融市场不健全、不成熟、不完善的特点，以及新兴经济体所固有的发展阶段特性，顺周期系统性风险的隐患是存在的，所以加强宏观审慎政策研究，以及构建宏观审慎政策框架，对于我国和发达国家一样是亟待解决的。加强对宏观审慎政策框架的研究，也将有助于推动金融监管理论的发展与突破。

Although the global financial crisis on China's financial system does not have a significant impact,But China's financial market is not perfect/Not mature/The characteristics of the imperfect,Emerging economies and inherent development stage characteristics,The cycle systemic risk hidden trouble is there,So strengthening macro prudent policy research,And build macroscopic prudent policy framework,For our country and the developed countries are to be solved.Strengthen the macroscopic prudent policy framework research,Will also help promote the development of the theory of financial supervision and breakthrough.

　　中国金融系统性风险的特殊性 The particularity of China's financial systemic risk

　　宏观审慎主要有两个维度，一是时间维度，这一维度主要关注金融体系的顺周期性，也就是整个金融系统层面的风险随着时间的推移在金融体系的内部和金融体系与实体经济的相互作用下被放大。所使用的政策工具包括资本、拨备和杠杆率等。二是跨行业维度，指的是在某一给定时点上，由于金融机构相互之间的关联和共同的风险暴露，单个或一组金融机构造成的系统性风险以及系统性风险在金融体系中的分布。所使用的工具包括对监管范围的扩大，对具有系统重要性的金融机构采取更审慎的监管，对交易对手的风险计量进行改进和控制，以及更有效的市场基础设施建设等。

Macro prudent mainly has two dimensions,One is the time dimension,This dimension is mainly focus on the financial system the periodicity,Also is the whole financial system level risk with the passage of time in inside the financial system and financial system and real economy under the interaction of be amplified.The use of policy tools including capital/A provision and leverage ratio, etc.The second is a cross-industry dimension,Refers to in a given time interval,Due to the financial institutions the correlation between each other and common risk exposure,A single or a group of financial institutions to cause systemic risk and systemic risk in the financial system in distribution.The tools used for regulatory including the expansion of scope,With the system of the importance of financial institutions to take a more prudent supervision,To counterparty risk measurement to improve and control,And more effective market infrastructure construction, etc.

　　跨行业维度的宏观审慎管理主要是解决如何对待金融机构所持有的共同或者相互关联的风险暴露，以避免金融机构的同时倒闭而产生的系统性风险。对于中国来讲，金融体系的内在顺周期性，以及风险计量模型的发展和资本监管，会计准则等外部规则对金融体系顺周期性的进一步强化，是近年来中国的金融体系比较严重的问题。此次国际金融危机的爆发，更深刻的说明了金融体系顺周期性对金融稳定和经济发展的危害，并对缓解金融体系的顺周期性达成共识。引入逆周期的工具，如逆周期的资本要求、前瞻性的拨备计提规则和杠杆指标等，特别是在金融体系中建立逆周期机制对我国当前防范系统性风险十分重要。如何设计金融业的逆周期机制以及相应的逆周期政策工具，是我国建立宏观审慎政策框架面临的重大挑战。

Cross-industry dimension of macroscopic prudent management is mainly to solve how to deal with financial institutions held by common or related risk exposure,In order to avoid financial institutions closed at the same time as a result of the systemic risk.For Chinese speaking,The financial system of the inner periodic,And risk measurement models, and the development of capital supervision,Accounting standards on the financial system and external rules the periodic further strengthen,In recent years, China's financial system is serious problem.The international financial crisis,Deeper explain the financial system to the periodic financial stability and economic development of the hazard,And to ease the financial system of the periodic reach a consensus.Introducing countercyclical tools,Such as reverse cycle capital requirements/Forward-looking dial provision for rules and lever index, etc,Especially in the financial system to establish reverse cycle mechanism in our country at present to prevent systemic risk is very important.How to design financial countercyclical mechanism as well as the corresponding countercyclical policy tool,Is our country establish macroscopic prudent policy frame facing big challenge.

构建宏观审慎政策体系，防范金融体系的系统性风险 Constructing prudent macroeconomic policy system,Guard against financial system of systemic risk

　宏观审慎政策的组织架构 Macro prudent policy organization structure

　　宏观审慎政策在实施的层面是需要依靠权力部门来推进的，因此其中的权力安排也是非常关键的问题。英国金融服务监管局（FSA）的报告中认为，设计宏观审慎政策框架可以采取三种方式来安排管理机构。第一种方式是宏观审慎监管政策的制订以及执行安排相应的金融监管机构来负责。而中央银行在这种模式之下则承担了监控系统性风险，并将监控的结果及监管建议反馈给微观审慎监管机构的责任，微观的审慎管理机构承担了化解系统性风险的责任。第二种方式是宏观审慎政策的制订和执行由一国的中央银行负责。中央银行在这种模式下承担了监控并且制订政策来化解金融系统性风险的责任，而中央银行在具体执行时,可以在认为必要时要求微观审慎部门配合这些政策的执行。第三种方式是成立新的机构,即由一国的央行和微观审慎监管机构组成一个新的监管委员会，这个新机构履行监管政策的制订及其实施德责任。IMF认为在明确宏观审慎政策机构时，应该充分考虑到现行监管框架的适应性，不是一定要求对各国调整现存的监管框架及职能，而是要求各国央行和监管机构能够在履行现有职能的同时，更加强化宏观审慎管理的意识，以此实现宏微观监管的有机结合。

Macro prudence in the implementation of the plane is need to rely on the power department to advance,So the power arrangement is very key question.Britain's financial services regulatory bureau(FSA)It is considered,Design macro prudent policy framework can take three ways to arrange management mechanism.The first way is macro prudential supervision policy formulation and implementation arrangement corresponding financial regulators to responsible for.And the central bank in this mode is under for monitoring systemic risk,And the monitoring results and supervision Suggestions feedback to microscopic prudential supervision mechanism responsibility,Microscopic prudent management institution shall bear the responsibility of the dissolve systemic risk.The second way is prudent macroeconomic policy formulation and implementation by the country's central bank is responsible for.The central bank in this mode for monitoring and formulate policies to defuse financial systemic risk responsibility,And the central bank in the concrete execution,Can be in when necessary requirements microscopic prudent departments with the implementation of these policies.And the third way is the formation of a new institution,That is one country by central Banks and microcosmic prudential supervision mechanism composed a new regulatory committee,This new agencies to perform regulatory policy formulation and implementation's responsibility.IMF think in clear macroscopic prudent policy institution,Should fully consider the adaptability of the existing regulatory framework,Not all countries must be required to adjust the existing regulatory framework and function,But for central Banks and regulators can in the performance of the existing function at the same time,Reinforce macro prudent management consciousness,To realize the combination of macro and micro supervision.

　　显然，理论工作者和政策制订部门都已经认识到构建宏观审慎政策框架的理论意义和实践价值，但是关于具体构架，尤其是涉及的具体部门的安排与职权的划分，尚未达成一致。主要原因是迄今为止还没有形成对中国金融体系和风险状况的综合性分析，所以宏观审慎政策理论与实践环节之间一直存在断层。具体而言，在缺乏对系统性风险的规模、分布和其他特征清晰认识的条件下，很难对宏观审慎政策框架的合理性做出准确的判断。因此，全面的对中国的系统性风险的评估，同时站在超脱部门利益的中立立场对宏观审慎政策在实施过程中的相关因素进行综合权衡，是宏观审慎政策架构的合理路径。

obviously,The theoretical workers and policy-making department has been recognized by constructing macroscopic prudent policy framework of theoretical significance and practical value,But about concrete frame,Especially the specific department involved in the arrangement and the division of functions and powers,Has yet been reached.The main reason is that so far has not formed to China's financial system and risk status of comprehensive analysis,So the macro prudent policy theory and practice has been exist between fault.In particular,In the absence of systemic risk scale/Distribution and other characteristics under the condition of clear understanding,It is difficult to macroscopic prudent policy framework to the rationality of the accurate judgment.therefore,Comprehensive to China's systemic risk assessment,At the same time stand in detached department interests neutrality and the macro prudence in the implementation of the relevant factors are integrated balance,Is the macro prudent policy framework of the reasonable path.

　构建适合中国国情的宏观审慎政策工具 Constructing suits the Chinese national condition the macroscopic prudent policy tools

　　国际上在设计和运用宏观审慎政策工具的实践经验表明,这些工具主要分为宏观审慎跨行业维度和跨时间维度。具体而言,设计开发的工具包括控制系统重要性金融机构的风险的工具,如系统性风险税、资本金率、杠杆率等，还包括调节金融体系的顺周期性的工具，资本缓冲、如动态拨备等。但是，这些工具除了与微观审慎管理的侧重的着眼点不同，可以说仍然停留在微观层面，与宏观审慎政策的目标不够匹配，未体现出“宏观”的实质，更没有涵盖宏观审慎政策的全部内涵。宏观审慎政策中的“宏观”的体现更应该表现在政策干预机制的宏观性，体现在运用宏观经济指标或者宏观经济政策与微观层面的监管措施的配合，实现宏观审慎管理的目标，这也是与微观审慎监管的区别所在。因此，为了构建适合中国的宏观审慎管理政策工具，除了通过微观审慎监管手段的运用来达到宏观目的之外，更关键的问题是开发和设计出能够直接实现宏观审慎监管目标的工具以及指标体系。

The international in the design and the macroscopic prudent policy tool of practical experience shows that,These tools are divided into macroscopic prudent cross-industry dimensions and span time dimension.In particular,Design and development tools including control system the risk of financial institutions in the importance of the tool,Such as systemic risk tax/Capital rate/Leverage ratio, etc,Also include regulation of the financial system the periodic tool,Capital buffer/Such as dynamic provision, etc.but,These tools in addition to and micro prudent management of different on the starting point,Can say still stay in the micro level,And macro prudent policy goal is not matching,Did not reflect the"macroscopic"Essence of the,More does not cover all the meaning of macro prudent policy.The macro prudent policy"macroscopic"More should be the embodiment of the performance in the policy intervention mechanism of macroscopic,Reflected in the macroscopic economic indicators or macro economic policy and micro levels of regulatory measures to cooperate,To realize the goal of macro prudent management,This is also and micro prudential supervision in the difference between.therefore,In order to construct suitable for China's macro prudent management policy tool,In addition to through the microscopic prudential supervision means to achieve the use of outside macro purpose,The more the key problem is to develop and design a can directly realize macroscopic prudential supervision target tools, and index system.

　财政政策、货币政策与金融监管政策的协调配合 Fiscal policy/Monetary policy and financial regulatory policy coordination

　　为了实现金融稳定或者一定的宏观经济目标，除了采取传统金融监管政策之外，还需要财政、货币、汇率政策等的协调与配合。在复杂的宏观经济与金融环境下，金融监管已成为影响宏观经济政策有效性的一个重要因素。一方面，资本金充足率等金融监管工具能够在相当程度上影响金融机构的信用创造过程，从而具有类似货币政策工具的效应。另一方面，宏观经济状况直接影响着金融机构的资本金和流动性状况，进而影响其稳健性。因此宏观调控当局在政策制订中必须要考虑到相关政策对于金融稳定的影响，并且一旦出现金融风险，还需要考虑风险的防范和处置，采取诸如再贷款、再贴现和运用存款准备金等手段对金融机构进行支持。因此，随着现代金融与经济活动的高度交织，金融监管与宏观经济政策必须相互协调，密切配合，这也是宏观审慎政策产生的初衷之一。因此，构建逆周期的宏观审慎政策体系将有助于金融监管与货币政策、财政政策的协调配合，促进我国宏观经济稳定运行。

In order to achieve the financial stability or certain macroeconomic goals,In addition to taking the traditional financial supervision outside policy,Need financial/currency/Exchange rate policy coordination and cooperation.In the complex macroeconomic and financial environment,Financial supervision has become influence macroeconomic policy effectiveness is an important factor.On the one hand,Capital adequacy ratio, and other financial regulatory tools in fairly extent of financial institutions in the credit creation process,Similar to the effect of monetary policy tools.On the other hand,The macro economic situation directly affects the financial institution capital and liquidity conditions,Thus influence its robustness.Therefore the macroeconomic regulation and control authorities in policy-making must consider to the relevant policies for the influence of financial stability,And once appear, financial risks,Also need to consider the risk prevention and disposal,To take such as refinancing/Rediscount and use the deposit reserve, and other means to financial institutions to support.therefore,Along with the development of modern financial and economic activities of the highly mixed,Financial supervision and macro economic policy must be coordinated,Closely cooperate with,This is also the macro prudence produced one of the original intention.therefore,Constructing countercyclical macro prudent policy system will contribute to financial supervision and monetary policy/Fiscal policy coordination,Promote our national macro economy and stable operation.

　　(作者单位：中国社会科学院金融研究所)

(The author unit:The Chinese academy of social sciences financial research institute)