董少鹏

DongShaoPeng

　　我国《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》（以下简称《规划》）日前经国务院批准，于昨天正式发布。《规划》对利率市场化、汇率市场化、人民币国际化等诸多战略及战术层面的变革做出安排，明确了间接融资及直接融资等金融结构方面改革的目标和策略；提出“十二五”时期金融服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重保持在5%左右的量化预期，强调“十二五”期末非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上的愿景。笔者认为，这个规划为资本市场大发展提供了重要契机，也将注入强劲动力。

Our country[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning](Hereinafter referred to as[planning])Recently with the approval of the state council,In formal release yesterday.[planning]Interest rate marketization/Rate marketization/RMB internationalization and so on many strategic and tactical changes to make arrangement,Clear the indirect financing and direct financing and financial structure reform goal and strategy;Put forward"1025"Period financial services sector accounted for the proportion of GDP remain in 5% of quantitative expected,emphasize"1025"The final non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15% of the vision.The author thinks that,The plan for capital market development provides an important opportunity,Will inject strong power.

　　目前，国际金融危机已经进入第五个年头，全球经济增长放缓的趋势仍然没有明显的改变。《规划》结合了金融危机给我们带来的启示，可以使金融改革能够更加兼顾国内具体情况和国际经验教训。其中最重要的一点，就是在坚持市场化的同时，要着力完善金融宏观调控，“市场化”和“与市场化相匹配的宏观调控体系”要相互匹配，不能片面讲市场化。

At present,The international financial crisis has entered the 5th year,The global economic slowdown trend still not obvious change.[planning]Combined with the financial crisis brought us enlightenment,Can make financial reform can be more specific situation to both domestic and international experience and lessons.One of the most important point,Even in adhere to the market at the same time,We should focus on perfecting financial macro-control,"marketization"and"And marketization matching the macroeconomic regulation and control system"To match each other,Can't speak one-sided market.

　　我国金融改革是一个立体的改革，核心是市场化，一切行动要围绕市场化进行。按照《规划》，利率、汇率、人民币资本项目可兑换都要有稳妥推进，要有积极成果。其中“人民币资本项目可兑换逐步实现”的表述，意味着此项开放的进展要兼顾市场化和宏观管理的平衡。央行行长周小川曾表示，“在国际收支平衡表的资本项目中共有40个子项目，每一项是否可兑换均可评估，汇总起来则是资本项目的可兑换性”；而“对照IMF提出的关于资本项目可兑换的40个子项来衡量，就可以发现，其实我们距离资本项目可兑换的目标，现在已经不太远了”。他还指出，多数发达国家也不是100%可自由兑换，可能仅仅是达到了80%或90%的水平，往往差不多就可以宣称资本项目可兑换了。笔者认为，审慎、科学评估人民币可自由兑换的标准，是把握我国金融市场化改革的重要原则之一。

China's financial reform is a three-dimensional reform,Core is the marketization,All actions around market for.According to the[planning],Interest rates/Exchange rate/RMB convertible under capital accounts have safely ahead,Want to have positive results.the"RMB capital project convertible gradually realize"statement,Means that the open development should take the market and macro management of the balance.Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said,"In the balance of payments capital project a total of 40 is project,Each is convertible all can be assessed,Summarizing up is the capital of convertibility";and"Contrast IMF put on capital account convertibility 40 is item to measure,Can be found,In fact we distance capital project convertible goal,It's not too far away".He also pointed out that,Most developed countries also are not 100% can be freely convertible,May is only 80% or 90% level,Often almost can claim the capital account convertibility.The author thinks that,prudent/Scientific evaluation standard of the yuan convertible,Is to grasp the Chinese financial market reform is one of the important principles.

　　除了利率、汇率、证券产品价格等金融标的价格的市场化之外，要突出推进三个方面的市场化：

In addition to interest rates/Exchange rate/Securities product price, and other financial target price marketization outside,To highlight the propulsion three marketization:

　　第一，推进金融机构的市场化，即加大金融机构在组织和经营活动方面的市场化。一方面要“放小”。鼓励小型贷款公司、村镇银行以及私人银行等小微金融机构的发展，为微小企业提供对应的金融服务。另一方面要“改大”。在银政保及信托等现有金融机构的分业监管、跨业合作的基础上，组建和发展若干金融控股公司；但也不是搞大批的金融控股公司，有的大型银行甚至可以分拆，根据职能、地域和业务进行市场化“重塑”。

The first,Promote the marketization of financial institutions,That increase the financial institutions in the organization and management activities of marketization.On the one hand to"little".Encourage small loan companies/Village Banks and private Banks and other small micro financial institutions development,For small enterprises to provide the corresponding financial services.On the other hand to"Change big".In the silver government insurance and trust and the existing financial institutions supervised respectively/On the basis of combination cooperation,Form and development of a number of financial holding company;But it is not make a large number of financial holding company,Some big Banks can even split,According to the function/Regional and business market"remodeling".

　　第二，推进融资活动的市场化。截至目前，我国企业的贷款增长幅度比资本金增长幅度高出5个百分点，资产负债率比较高，如果长此以往，对企业发展和银行业都造成巨大的负担，并且风险过于集中。为此，积极推动金融市场协调发展，显著提高直接融资比重。要进一步发挥债券和股票市场的融资作用，其中债券市场的作用应更加强化。

The second,Promote the marketization of financing activities.So far,Our country enterprise loan growth of 5% higher than the capital increase,Asset liability ratio is higher,If in the long run,To the enterprise development and the banking industry caused great burden,And the risk is too centralized.therefore,Actively promote the coordinated development of financial market,Improve the proportion of direct financing.Further bring into play of bond and stock market financing function,The bond market role should be more reinforcement.

　　第三，推进宏观调控的市场化。目前，我国宏观调控体系已趋于完善并且积累了很多成功经验，但在银行信贷方面还是有明显的行政性特点。进一步加强和改善宏观调控，特别是建立与市场化改革匹配的宏观调控，当然要与利率市场化密切协调。但目前央行的资产结构也必须加以调整。截至2011年底，我国的银行资产是113万亿元，但央行可动用的资产只有6000多亿元；同时，央行自身资产的50%到80%在海外配置。

The third,Promote the marketization of macroeconomic regulation and control.At present,China's macroeconomic regulation and control system has already become more and more perfect and has accumulated a lot of successful experience,But in bank credit, it has obvious administrative characteristics.To further strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control,Especially the establishment and market reform of macroscopic regulation and control of the match,Of course with the interest rate marketization close coordination.But now the central bank's assets structure also will have to be adjusted.By the end of 2011,China's bank assets is 113 trillion yuan,But the central bank available assets only more than 6000 yuan;At the same time,The central bank to 50% to 80% of their assets in overseas configuration.

　　这导致央行实施调控的难度比较大。所以，一方面要构建逆周期的金融宏观审慎政策框架，完善货币政策的传导机制，丰富金融宏观调控工具和手段；另一方面，也要对央行资产配置进行市场化改革。另外，金融监管应逐步从目前的以机构监管为重点调整为以业务监管为重点的模式。

This leads to the difficulty of the implementation of the central bank regulation is larger.so,On the one hand to construct countercyclical financial macro prudent policy framework,Perfect the monetary policy transmission mechanism,Rich financial macroeconomic regulation and control tool and means;On the other hand,Also to the central bank asset allocation for marketization reform.In addition,Financial regulation should be gradually from the present to institutions supervision as the key to adjust the business supervision as the focal point of the model.

　　笔者认为，随着金融业改革的深入，资本市场发展的体制环境将得到明显提升。特别是利率、汇率市场化的进展可以促使股票、债券融资定价更加真实，促使上市公司更加重视投资回报；而宏观调控的进一步市场化，将促使政策传导更加敏感和有效，股市的晴雨表功能将更加显性化。由此，资本市场的稳定运行机制就具备了更加夯实的基础。

The author thinks that,With the deepening of the reform of the financial industry,The capital market development system environment will be enhanced.Especially the interest rate/The progress of the marketization of exchange rate can make a stock/Bond financing pricing more real,Listed companies to pay more attention to return on investment;And the marketization of macroeconomic regulation and control,Will make policy transmission more sensitive and effective,The stock market barometer function will be more innovated.this,The stability of the capital market operation mechanism has the more ramming foundation.