他曾任衍生商品交易员、基金经理人和投资银行家11年之久；20世纪90年代，因看准信息化的趋势，遂进军电讯与软件业，创办和投资数家高科技公司；逾30年的投资经验，靠把握趋势玩转金融衍生品、股票、银行和高科技实业公司；现居瑞士，嗜好滑雪、航海以及收集意大利跑车与葡萄酒。这是拉斯?特维德（Las Tvede），也正是本期《钱经》大投资家栏目的采访的大投资家。

He served the derivatives traders/Fund managers and investment bankers 11 years;In the 1990 s,For be certain informatization trend,Hence the telecommunications and software,Founded several hi-tech companies and investment;More than 30 years of investment experience,Grasp the trend on financial derivatives play/stock/Banks and high-tech industrial companies;Now in Switzerland,Hobby skiing/Navigation and collect the Italian sports car and wine.This is las?, vader(Las Tvede),It is also the current[The money]Big investors column interview big capitalists.

　　“2010年至2050年间，将有12~18次金融泡沫及崩盘、1~3次全球房市大崩盘、3~5次资本支出崩盘，以及8~10次库存周期”“2050年全球实质GDP是2010年的4倍，全球财富将成长300%”——听到这些论断，你会感到惊悚吗？

"Between 2010 and 2050,There will be 12 ~ 18 times the financial bubble and crash/1 ~ 3 times global housing market crash/3 ~ 5 times capital expenditure crash,And 8 ~ 10 times inventory cycle""In 2050, the essence of GDP is four times that of 2010,Global wealth will increase 300%"- hear these judgment,You'll feel terrible?

　　这是全球趋势大师拉斯?特维德在《趋势投资50年》一书中的最新预测。必须承认的是，拉斯?特维德依靠着对趋势的准确判断，在投资上获益颇丰。从他的思路中，你或许可以找到更好的投资机会。

This is a global trend master las?, vader in[Trend investment 50 years]A book of the latest forecast.It must be admitted that is,las?Special vader depend on the accurate judgment to the trend,In terms of investment benefit quite abundant.From his thought of,Perhaps you can find a better investment opportunities.

　　中国经济正在触底，出口被内需取代

China's economy is sole,The export of domestic demand is replaced

　　谈到趋势首先离不开对中国经济的预测，在这一点上，拉斯?特维德显然看好中国。“中国经济正在这个经济周期中触底，” 不过拉斯?特维德也意识到了这个过程的曲折性，“在未来10～20年中国的自然增长率会慢慢下降。如今中国拥有极高的GDP水平进行资本支出，只要资本被投资在一些产生利润的产品上，这将是十分有效的。例如工厂、港口和机场，拥有自然需求将是很好的投资。然而，随着中国人薪资水平开始接近西方国家水平，将会有更少的以出口为基础的投资获利可能性。这将在之后不得不被对中国消费者的产品和服务投资所替代，并且这种转型将减缓增长速度。中国2040年之前将成为全球最大经济体，之后印度将成为全球经济增长最大的动力来源。”

When it comes to trend is inseparable from the first China's economic forecast,At this point,las?Special vader obviously bullish on the Chinese."China's economy is the economic cycle touch bottom," But las?Special vader is aware of this process of twists,"In the next 10 to 20 years China's natural growth rate will gradually decline.Now China has extremely high GDP level of capital expenditure,As long as the capital invested in some generate profit products,This will be very effective.For example, the factory/Ports and airports,With natural demand will is a good investment.however,Along with the Chinese wages began to close to the level of western countries,There will be less based on exports investment profit possibility.This will then have to be on China's consumer products and service investment has been replaced,And this kind of transformation will slow growth rate.China before 2040 will become the world's largest economy,After India will become global economic growth's largest source of power."

　　从Made in China到Made for China

From Made in China to Made for China

　　根据近期经济合作与发展组织的一项研究表明，如今欧洲和北美大约有占到世界50%的中产阶级消费者，亚洲的中产阶级消费者数额占到了世界的30%。但是到2030年，中产阶级消费者的数量西方将大概只能占有大约20%，同时亚洲占到65%的份额。这是一个巨大的变化，它表明对中国更多的投资将瞄准亚洲消费者群体，而不再是西方消费者。在中国这也意味着更多的投资将被投向消费者品牌和中国境内的消费者市场。所以在拉斯?特维德看来，国外公司投资中国的工业设施来制造在西方售卖的消费品的趋势，将会趋于平稳。

According to the recent organization for economic cooperation and development according to a study,Nowadays Europe and North America accounted for about 50% of the world's middle-class consumers,Asia's middle-class consumers amount accounted for 30% of the world.But by 2030,The number of middle-class consumers western will probably only occupies about 20%,At the same time, Asia accounted for 65% of the share.This is a huge change,It shows that more investment to China will aim at the Asian consumer groups,And western consumers are no longer.In China, it also means that more investment will be to the consumer's brand and consumer market within the territory of China.So in las?, vader seems,Foreign companies to invest in China industrial facilities to manufacture sale of consumer goods in the west of the trend,Will tend to be stable.

　　中国这些年经济发展中的一个普遍现象是：吸引国外的钱建成两个工厂，生产产品出口到美国。这些工厂赚取利润，用这些钱去建造第三个工厂。如此下去，会创造非常高的增长率。这是到目前为止中国的经济形势的一个大的部分。

Over the years in the development of China's economy is a common phenomenon:To attract foreign money built two factories,Products are exported to the United States.These factories make a profit,Use the money to build a third plant.So down,Will create a very high growth rate.This is so far China's economic situation of a big part.

　　但是现在另一种情况出现了，中国经济快速发展后，中国工人的工资越来越高，产品不能出口到美国。所以国外投资者只建造一家工厂，而非两家，另外一半的钱给当地消费者使得他们可以从工厂购买产品。随着时间的推移，工厂制造着利润，国外投资者把一半的利润给当地的消费者，另一半用来投资扩大一半工厂。

But now another kind of circumstance appeared,China's rapid economic development,Chinese workers pay more and more high,The product can't export to the United States.So foreign investors only build a factory,Rather than two,The other half of the money to the local consumers that they can buy the products from the factory.With the passage of time,The factory makes profit,Foreign investors put half of the profits to local consumers,The other half used to investment to expand half factory.

　　拉斯?特维德认为，第二种模式依旧可以成立，但它只能给出一个缓慢的GDP增长率。“这是一个让中国不得不缓慢增长的过渡，因为如果仅仅是投资于基础设施建设和生产能力，则没有市场需求。日本曾经用所谓的‘无处建桥’来尝试这个模型，而现在却被埋在堆积如山的债务之下。”

las?, vader think,The second model is established,But it can only give a slow GDP growth rate."This is a let China had to slow growth of transition,Because if is only investment in infrastructure construction and production capacity,Do not have the market demand.Japan used to use the so-called‘Nowhere construct a’To try to this model,And now was buried in accumulation under a mountain of debt."

　　解决欧洲问题需要更严重的危机

To solve the European questions need to be more serious crisis

　　在拉斯?特维德看来，某些欧元区国家正被困在两个经济陷阱之中。

In las?, vader seems,Some eurozone countries are trapped in two economy of trap.

　　第一个陷阱是所谓的“债务通货紧缩”。当整个社会试图缩减它的债务时，经济开始收缩并且将要售卖的资产价格下降，这意味着收入下降了，去杠杆化因而变得不可能或者说非常缓慢。而且如果一个弱国向它的脆弱的银行放贷，人们将会担心这个国家会破产，这将意味着政府债券的价格会下跌，这些债券在很大程度上属于那些较弱的银行。反之亦然。无论哪种方式都像一只狗在试图咬自己的尾巴一样。

The first is called the trap"Debt deflation".When the whole society trying to reduce its debt,Economy began to shrink and going to sell assets price fall,This means that income dropped,De-leveraging so impossible or very slowly.And if a weak to its fragile bank lending,People will worry about the country will go bankrupt,This will mean that the government bond prices fall,These bonds to a great extent, belong to those who weaker Banks.And vice versa.Either way like a dog trying to bite their tail.

　　第二个陷阱是所谓的 “太阳黑子”问题，它表明，有些事能发生仅仅是因为人们认为它能发生。如果人们认为一个既定的国家能够破产，这个国家的利率将会上升，这个国家的债券将会上升到一个真的可以让其破产的水平。在欧洲，坏的观点目前正在创造着坏的现实。

The second trap is the so-called "sunspots"problems,It shows that,Some things can happen just because people think it can happen.If people think that a given country to bankruptcy,The country's interest rates will rise,The country's debt will rise to a really can make its bankruptcy levels.In Europe,Bad point of view is currently creating bad reality.

　　这些恶性循环怎样被打破？第一部分的通用解决方案是以印制钞票来偿还债务而使得债务水平降低。这解决了债务通货紧缩问题。第二部分是如果弱国采取更好的经济政策，强国可以从弱国购买债券，这将解决“太阳黑子”问题。

These vicious circle how to be broken?The first part is the general solutions to print money to repay its debts and have a lower level of debt.It solves the problem of debt deflation.The second part is weak if take better economic policy,Power can from inside buy bonds,This would solve the"sunspots"problems.

　　但这些解决欧债危机的行动现在都没有发生。

But these solve the debt crisis action now didn't happen.

　　拉斯?特维德认为，首先你无法使得南欧国家接受足够的结构性改革，除非他们感到处在极度危险之中。所以更强大的国家实际上需要创造一种某种意义上的紧急危机。通过这种方式他们可以得到让步，但是这将是一个需要时间的循序渐进的过程。

las?, vader think,First of all, you can't make enough southern countries accept the structural reform,Unless they feel is in extreme danger.So the more powerful country actually need to create a kind of a sense of crisis.In this way they can get concessions,But it will be a need to time gradual process.

　　乱世中的投资机会在哪里？

Gone with the investment opportunities in where?

　　由欧美金融危机导致的全球经济不景气，使得投资的难度也明显加大，尤其是做空工具比较缺乏的国内。

Europe and the United States by the financial crisis in the global economic recession,Make the difficulty of increasing investment is also obvious,Especially do empty tool is a shortage of domestic.

　　不过再大的危机也掩盖不住其中的机遇。拉斯?特维德认为，就国家层次的投资来看，未来几年中，印度尼西亚、波兰和菲律宾的国内市场将有着巨大的投资机会。同样，在非洲的基础设施建设领域甚至消费领域都有着新生的机会，但投资于此需要谨慎地挑选投资项目。一个有趣的现象是，在过去的25年中博茨瓦纳有着世界上最快的经济增长率，而现在也有许多其他非洲国家经济增长非常迅速。只要能有诚实的领导者和好的政府机构，许多非洲国家可以确实地经历一次巨大的经济增长。

But again big crisis can not hide the opportunity.las?, vader think,The national level of investment to see,The next few years,Indonesia/Poland and the Philippines domestic market will have a huge investment opportunities.The same,In the African infrastructure field even the consumption field has a new opportunity,But investment in this need to carefully choose the investment project.An interesting phenomenon is,In the past 25 years Botswana has the world's fastest economic growth rate,And now there are also many other African countries economic growth very quickly.As long as can have honest leader and good government agencies,Many African countries can certainly experience a great economic growth.

　　拉斯?特维德认为一些欧洲公司的股票开始变得很便宜，“欧元危机的解决方案初具规模，同时将会出现对欧洲的实体企业的巨大的并购机遇。欧洲有许多糟糕的政府，但是它也有许多伟大的公司，这些公司现在实在是太便宜了”。

las?Special vader think some European company's stock began to become very cheap,"The euro crisis solution begun to take shape,At the same time will appear to European entity enterprise's massive m&a opportunities.Europe has many bad government,But it also has many great company,These companies now it is too cheap".

　　就行业和领域而言，拉斯?特维德看好的未来巨大的投资机会有以下三个主题：（1）亚洲消费者日益增长的购买力；（2）全球范围内老龄化人口的增加；（3）在IT、生物科技、新材料方向的创新。“这些主题中，生命科学、老年护理、消费电子和奢侈品是最具吸引力的投资方向。也看好房地产市场，在危机后购买房产总是好的。在工业金属行业和新能源行业也会有巨大的机会，尽管对于这些市场而言最好的机会将出现在数年之后。”

It industry and sector,las?Vader's promising future huge investment opportunity has the following three topics:(1)Asian consumers growing purchasing power;(2)The global scope the increase of aging population;(3)In IT/biotechnology/The innovation of the new material direction."The theme,Life science/Elderly care/Consumer electronics and luxury is the most attractive investment direction.Also has the real estate market,After the crisis to buy real estate is always good.In the industrial metal industries and new energy industry will have great opportunities,Although the markets for these the best opportunity will appear in a few years later."

　　我发现，我在事业上做出最佳投资、得到最大乐趣，总是发生在我看对大局，然后逆市场主流意见或率先长期布局的时候。要享受乐趣并获得成功，光是在自己的领域表现出色是不够的——远比这重要的，是选对领域投入。

I found,I make a best in business investment/Get maximum fun,Happen when I see the bigger picture,Then reverse market mainstream opinions or take the lead in the layout of for a long time.Have fun and success,The light is in his own field performance is not enough -- far more than the important,Is to choose to invest.

　　对话拉斯?特维德：

Dialogue las?, vader:

　　中国股市正变得相当便宜

China's stock market is becoming quite cheap

　　《钱经》：中国会不会像日本一样进入数十年的大萧条？

[The money]:China will not like Japan into dozens of years of the great depression?

　　拉斯?特维德：我不认为中国会像日本一样进入数十年的大萧条。首先，日本在进入停滞时已是建造了巨大的金融泡沫的时期，而中国还没有做过。第二，我认为中国有更灵活的工作文化，使它能够迅速适应不断变化的环境。第三，中国仍然是一个很有竞争力的经济体，拥有大量的业务扩张范围。

las?, vader:I don't think that China will like Japan into dozens of years of the great depression.First of all,Japan into stagnation is already built a huge financial bubble period,But China has not done.The second,I think China has more flexible work culture,Make it can quickly adapt to the changing environment.The third,China is still a very competitive economies,Has a large scope of business expansion.

　　《钱经》：您认为长期来看人民币是否会继续升值？在您认为的趋势下应该投资什么样的资产？

[The money]:Do you think the long term whether or not the RMB will continue to rise?Do you think in under the trend of investment should be what kind of assets?

　　拉斯?特维德：是的,但是我宁愿持有中国资产而非中国货币，我喜欢收益率。同样，在人民币很长时间都没有升值的情况下，中国股市正变得相当便宜。

las?, vader:yes,But I prefer to hold China assets rather than China's currency,I like the rate of return.The same,In the yuan a long time without appreciation cases,China's stock market is becoming quite cheap.

　　《钱经》：美元的货币超发和货币贬值是否会一直持续？

[The money]:Dollar currency super hair and currency devaluation would continue?

　　拉斯?特维德： 我不确定我能将这两种现象联系起来。美国中央银行正试图通过释放资金来抵消商业信贷的下降。我不认为他们正在创造流动性过剩，进而将导致高通胀。不，他们只是简单地试图阻止相反的一面。所以我不认为美国通过货币刺激使美元贬值。我认为美元兑欧元将在中期内升值而对人民币仍在贬值。

las?, vader: I'm not sure I can put the two kind of phenomenon connected.The U.S. central bank is trying to through the release of funds to offset the decline of commercial credit.I don't think they are creating excess liquidity,Then will lead to higher inflation.Don't,They are simply trying to stop the opposite side.So I don't think the United States through the monetary stimulus to the dollar.I think the dollar against the euro will be in the medium term and appreciation of the yuan is still in the devaluation.

　　《钱经》：您如何看待美国经济的复苏迹象？

[The money]:How do you think the United States signs the recovery of the economy?

　　拉斯?特维德：美国经济复苏已经开始。美国房地产价格非常低，并且积存未售卖的房地产价格也是非常低。如今房地产价格上升已经开始，鉴于此，我认为自然的商业周期现在越来越有用了，因而美国经济可能正在步入正轨。

las?, vader:The United States economic recovery has started.The United States real estate prices are very low,And is not stored up sales of real estate price is very low.Now the real estate price rise has started,In view of this,I think the natural business cycles now more and more useful,Thus the American economy could are moving in the right direction.

　　《钱经》：您认为现在仍应该买入黄金吗？

[The money]:Do you think it is still should buy gold?

　　拉斯?特维德：几年后黄金价格将会下降，可能还会降很多！可以看到在非常长的时期内黄金不是一个好的投资标的，因为它不能产生收益，并且相比在过去的几年，价格上涨了500%的黄金，对我来说非常具有风险。

las?, vader:A few years later gold prices will fall,May also fall a lot!Can see in a very long period of gold is not a good investment target,Because it does not produce income,And compared with in the past few years,Prices have risen by 500% of gold,For me it is to have a risk.

　　无论如何，如果一个投资者喜欢真实和有形资产，目前德国房地产市场是个不错的选择，它廉价并且可以生成良好的现金收益率。你甚至可以以一定折扣买德国上市房地产公司，低于他们的资产净值。我不买任何东西，除非它是便宜的，且具有很强的长期升值潜力，德国或美国房地产就是这样的例子，而黄金则相反。

No matter how to,If a investors like real and tangible assets,At present the German real estate market is a good choice,It is cheap and can generate good cash rate of return.You can even to a certain discount buy German listed real estate company,Less than their net asset value.I don't buy anything,Unless it is cheap,And have strong long-term appreciation potential,Germany or the United States real estate are examples of this,And gold opposite.

　　《钱经》：未来5～10年，石油资产是否仍具投资价格？

[The money]:In the coming 5 ~ 10 years,Whether oil assets remains investment price?

　　拉斯?特维德：至于石油，有这么多发生在页岩气产量上升和新石油勘探形式下产出，我不认为石油价格在未来5～10年有很大的升值潜力。例如，美国将可能在2020年实现用碳水化合物自给自足。仅仅3年前，就没有人想到。所以在结论方面，我认为石油价格在接下来的5～10年应在60～120美元一桶范围内。

las?, vader:As for oil,There are so many occur in shale gas production rose and new oil exploration form output,I don't think the price of oil in the next 5 ~ 10 years a lot of appreciation potential.For example,The United States will may be true in 2020 with carbohydrate self-sufficiency.Just 3 years ago,No one thought of.So in conclusion aspects,I think the price of oil in the next 5 ~ 10 years should be in 60 ~ 120 dollars a barrel range.

　　《钱经》：现在中国一线城市房价一直居高不下，您书中提到“房地产周期”，您认为中国北京这样的国际化大都市的房价，未来数十年会是什么样的走势？

[The money]:China is now a line city house prices have been high,You mentioned in the book"Real estate cycle",Do you think China such as Beijing house price of international metropolis,The next several annual meeting is what kind of situation?

　　拉斯?特维德：中国一线城市高房价将如香港过去几十年所经历过的一样，在繁荣和萧条之间摇摆不定。现在，它们很昂贵，而这意味着风险。

las?, vader:China a line city high house prices will be as Hong Kong over the past few decades have experienced it,In prosperity and depression wavering between.now,They are very expensive,And this means that risk.

　　《钱经》：对于普通投资者，请您给出最重要的几条投资建议吗？

[The money]:For ordinary investors,Please you the most important are several investment advice?

　　拉斯?特维德：普通投资者应该尽可能将投资分散到不同的资产和市场上，进行合理可行的投资，在这些不同的资产和市场上坚持一个固定的资产配比。由于在交易所交易的ETF基金的管理费用更低，投资者最好通过ETF基金来进行投资。频繁交易是不可取的，应当按投资者预定的策略定期调整自己的资产配置。

las?, vader:Ordinary investors should as far as possible will invest dispersion to different assets and the market,Reasonable feasible investment,In these different assets and the market insist on a fixed assets ratio.Because the exchange of ETF fund management cost lower,Investors had better through the ETF fund to invest.Frequent trading is not advisable,According to the investors shall be scheduled strategy regularly adjust their own asset allocation.

　　《投资趋势50年》——《经济学人》2012年投资与商业最佳读物

[Investment trends 50 years]--[economist]2012 investment and business the best books

　　研究历史、分析现在、推算未来便是趋势投资法，渐成为投资界另一主流。一如1970年代投资市场不愿接受走势分析，但走势分析也渐渐成为主流一样。目前趋势分析理论仍比较新，良好的书仍不多。而《趋势投资50年》更是这方面难得之作。本人诚意推介所有对趋势有兴趣的人去阅读，因为的确是一本好书。

The study of history/Analysis now/Calculate the future trend is the law of investment,Gradually become mainstream assumed to another.As the 1970 s investment market is not willing to accept trend analysis,But the trend analysis also gradually become the mainstream of the same.Current trends analysis theory is still new,A good book is still not much.and[Trend investment 50 years]This is a rare masterpiece.I desire to promote all of trend who is interested to read,Because it is a good book.

　　——香港投资评论家 曹仁超

- Hong Kong investment CaoRenChao critics