本报记者 倪铭娅

Our reporter NiMingYa

　　国务院参事室特约研究员、国家统计局原总经济师姚景源日前接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，当前经济下行趋势仍将持续一段时间，三季度GDP或与二季度相当。在基础设施投资的拉动下，明年初经济或出现温和回升。

The state council advisory office special researcher/The national bureau of statistics former chief economist YaoJingYuan has to accept Chinese stock certificate report reporter to interview said,The current economic descending trend will still last for a period of time,The third quarter GDP or with the second quarter quite.In the infrastructure investment under the pull,At the beginning of next year the economy or mild rebound.

物价将波动中趋稳 Prices will stabilise in the fluctuation

　　中国证券报：QE3推出对中国物价会产生什么样的影响？如何看未来几个月的物价走势？

China's stock certificate report:QE3 launch on China's price will produce what kind of impact?How to see several months into the future price movements?

　　姚景源：今年物价水平较低，主要受大宗商品价格较低的影响。QE3的推出，可能推高大宗商品价格，加大国内输入型通胀压力。但其对国内物价的影响不会太大。

YaoJingYuan:This year the price level is low,Mainly by commodity prices lower impact.QE3 launch,May push higher commodity prices,Increasing domestic imported inflation pressure.But the domestic price impact will not be too big.

　　未来数月物价会有波动，但总体将保持平稳。随着国庆、元旦等节日的来临以及秋冬季节的到来，食品价格将出现一定的上行压力，并呈现波动态势。但总体来看，影响CPI的因素基本保持稳定。首先粮食生产有望大丰收。今年夏粮总产量已超过历史最好水平，秋粮也有望获得丰收。“粮价稳、百价稳”，因此粮食生产的丰收将对食品价格稳定发挥重要作用。其次，农产品生产供给相对充裕、工业品价格相对平稳，都将有利于物价保持相对稳定。全年物价水平控制在4%左右的目标可以实现。

The next few months there will be a price fluctuation,But overall will remain stable.Along with the National Day/New Year's day and the festival and the arrival of autumn winter season,Food prices will appear a certain upward pressure,And present fluctuation trend.But overall,Influence factors of CPI basic remained stable.First of all food production is expected to harvest.This year the summer crops production has more than the best level in history,Autumn grain crops is expected to obtain the abundant harvest."Food prices steady/The price stability",So the harvest of grain production of food price stability will play an important role.secondly,Agricultural production supply relative abundance/Commodity prices relatively smooth,All will be good for prices remained relatively stable.The price level control in the 4% target can be realized.

　经济下行趋势将延续 Economic descending trend will continue

　　中国证券报：如何看待当前经济下行态势？

China's stock certificate report:How to look at the current economic descending trend?

　　姚景源：从总体宏观经济来看，现在最突出的问题是增速回落较快。中国经济增速从去年一季度的9.7%下滑到今年二季度的7.6%，已经连续6个季度出现下降。我认为，经济增速的持续下行，首先是外部因素所致。外部需求萎缩导致中国出口受阻，这是中国经济下行的主要原因之一。然而，更重要的一点是对金融危机的长期影响认识不够。从目前的情况看，此前我们对全球经济能尽快复苏的预期过于乐观。直到现在，全球经济仍处在缓慢、艰难的复苏过程中，需求的不振以及贸易保护主义的抬头，将加剧整个世界经济的衰退。短期内中国经济面临的外部环境难有改观。

YaoJingYuan:From the overall macroeconomic to see,Now the most prominent problem is growth back faster.China's economic growth in the first quarter of last year from 9.7% down to 7.6% in the second quarter of this year,Six consecutive quarterly decline.I think,Economic growth of continuous descending,The first is caused by external factors.External demand atrophy leads to China's export hindered,This is China's economy down one of the main reasons.however,The more important thing is to know the long-term impact of the financial crisis is not enough.From the present situation to see,We had to global economic recovery as soon as possible the expected too optimistic.Until now,The global economy is still in slowly/Difficult recovery process,The demand of and the rise of trade protectionism,Will heighten the whole world economic recession.In the short term China's economy is facing external environment difficult to have changed.

　　其次是中国自身的问题。早在1997年的亚洲金融危机时，我们就意识到中国经济增长的根本点不可能也不应该放到外部需求中，所以我们提出要扩大内需，立足国内需求。经过10多年的发展，扩大内需取得了一定的进步，但缺少实质性的进步。正是因为缺少实质性进步，所以从1997年到现在仍受困于此。因此，从根本上看，经济下行仍旧是因为过多的依赖国际市场，内需不能够替代外需。从中国经济下行的特点可以看到，外需高的地区下行压力较大，如广州、江苏、浙江等。

The second is China's own problems.As early as in 1997 the Asian financial crisis,We will realize the growth of China's economy may not firm should not be put in external demand,So we propose to expand domestic demand,Based on domestic demand.After 10 years of development,To expand domestic demand made certain progress,But the lack of substantial progress.It is because the lack of substantive progress,So from 1997 to now still trapped in this.therefore,Fundamentally see,Economic descending still because too much depends on the international market,Domestic demand can not replace overseas market demand.From China's economic downward characteristics can see,Overseas market demand high areas of greater downward pressure,Such as guangzhou/jiangsu/Zhejiang, etc.

　　但应该看到的是，经济的适度下行不是坏事。中国经济经过这么多年的发展，主要问题不是数量问题，而是质量和效益问题。很多人对目前国内经济结构调整表示不满意，主要原因还是经济增长偏快、偏热，追求的是经济发展速度而不是质量。

But should be observed,Economic moderate descending is not bad.China's economy after so many years of development,The main problem is not the quantity problem,But quality and efficiency problem.A lot of people on the domestic economic structure adjustment are unhappy,Main reason or economic growth partial fast/Partial heat,The pursuit of the economic development speed and not on quality.

　　尽管经济适度下行不是坏事，但也不能再往下掉。根据统计资料，受金融危机影响，2009年一季度我国GDP增速曾跌到6.2%。因此，如果现在经济增速再往下掉的话，就业问题可能将凸显。我认为，经济适度下行，并能将经济增速维持在8%左右，这不仅有利于经济结构调整和发展方式转变，同时有利于就业形势稳定。

Although economic moderate descending is not bad,But also can't falling.According to the statistical data,By the financial crisis,In the first quarter of 2009 GDP growth in China had fallen to 6.2%.therefore,If now economic growth falling words again,The employment problem may highlight.I think,Economic moderate descending,And can maintain economic growth at around 8%,This is not only advantageous to the readjustment of the economic structure and development mode change,And it is helpful to the stable employment situation.

　　值得注意的是，不论外部因素还是中国自身问题，在短期内都是难以解决的。因此，中国经济下行趋势短期内仍将持续。

It is important to note that,No matter or external factors in China's own problems,In the short term is difficult to solve.therefore,China's economic downward trend in the short term will continue.

　明年初经济或温和回升 At the beginning of next year the economy or mild rebound

　　中国证券报：未来经济回升的动力何在？

China's stock certificate report:Future economic rebound of what power?

　　姚景源：未来经济回升的动力主要还是看投资。投资分为基础设施投资、工业投资和房地产投资。受房地产调控影响，投资对经济的拉动作用主要看前两项投资。

YaoJingYuan:Future economic rebound is the primary motivation see investment.Investment into infrastructure investment/Industrial investment and real estate investment.By the real estate regulation effect,Investment to economic role in boosting mostly depends on the former two investment.

　　先看工业投资，工业投资具有两重性。项目刚开始投入时将产生需求，拉动经济增长。在项目完成后，便产生供给。从原来产生需求的单位变成了提供供给的单位，如果此时消费上不去，大量的供给上来后，消费会出现过剩。因此，工业投资对经济的拉动作用还要看消费的提高。

First look at the industrial investment,Industrial investment has the duality.The project began when input will produce demand,Stimulate economic growth.In after the completion of the project,Will produce supply.From the need for an unit into a supply unit,If the consumer couldn't get on,A large number of supply after come up,Consumption will be surplus.therefore,Industrial investment to economic role in boosting depends on the improvement of consumption.

　　再看基础设施投资，中国在基础设施方面的投资还有相当大的空间。近期发改委密集批复一批开工项目，基本集中在基础设施领域。

To see infrastructure investment,China in infrastructure investment and considerable space.The recent development and reform commission intensive rights to a number of projects,Basic concentrated in the infrastructure field.

　　基础设施投资主要看在建项目。投资只有从新开工项目变成在建项目对经济增长才有拉动力。投资从新开工到在建时间差大概是6个月，现在看新开工是增加还是减少，就能判断出6个月以后投资对中国经济的拉动是大还是小。

Infrastructure investment basically see construction projects.The new project investment only become construction projects on economic growth have pulling power.The new investment to start construction time difference is about six months,Now see the new start is to increase or decrease,Can judge the 6 months later investment to China's economic pull is big or small.

　　综合来看，投资拉动经济回升的时间点大概是在明年年初。这也意味着经济在四季度有望企稳，并在今年末、明年初出现温和、小幅回升。

Comprehensive to see,Investment stimulate economic rebound time point is probably in early next year.This also means that the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to stabilises,And at the end of this year/Mild early next year/Rebounded slightly.