本报记者 倪铭娅 实习记者 徐文擎

Our reporter NiMingYa internship reporter XuWen the qing

　　商务部研究院院长霍建国日前接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，QE3的推出对中国外贸的负面影响更多一些。

The ministry of commerce research institute President HuoJianGuo has to accept Chinese stock certificate report reporter to interview said,QE3 the launch of China's foreign trade to the negative effects of some more.

　　未来几个月，随着一系列政策作用的发酵和节日因素的影响，出口会出现小幅反弹，但不可能反弹到15%以上。这意味着全年外贸10%增长目标的实现难度很大。整体上看，今年全年外贸都将在相对较低的水平上缓慢增长，明年外贸会面临较大的增长压力。

The next few months,With a series of policies and the difference of fermentation and festivals influences,Export will appear small rebound,But can't bounce back to more than 15%.This means that the foreign trade 10% growth target is very difficult to realize.On the whole,The foreign trade this year will be in a relatively low level slow growth,Next year the foreign trade will be faced with a larger increase pressure.

出口回升力度不大 Export rebound strength is not big

　　中国证券报：如何看待未来几个月的出口增速情况？

China's stock certificate report:How to look at the next few months of export growth situation?

　　霍建国：未来几个月，出口可能会有缓慢的回升，但回升力度不会很大。具体来看，随着圣诞节的来临，欧美需求会略有活跃，再加上年末一般是进出口的高峰期，这将刺激国内出口出现一定反弹。

HuoJianGuo:The next few months,Export may have slow rebound,But won't be a big rebound strength.Specific to see,With the coming of Christmas,Europe and the United States demand will be slightly active,Combined with the end of the year is usually the peak period of import and export,This will stimulate domestic export appear certain rebound.

　　另外，从最近几个月来看，国家出台了一系列促进外贸稳定增长的措施和意见，这对出口产生一定的拉动作用。预计这些政策的拉动作用在四季度能基本实现。有些政策如信贷政策，可以马上兑现，所以10月之后出口便会出现反弹，但幅度不会很大。

In addition,From the last few months to see,The country has issued a series of to promote the steady growth of foreign trade measures and opinions,The export produce certain pull function.The policy is expected to pull role in the fourth quarter can realize the basic.Some policy such as credit policy,Can immediately to cash,So 10 month after export will be rebounded,But the scale is not big.

　　但也应看到，未来出口也面临着一些不利因素的影响。目前世界经济的矛盾还在，贸易保护主义抬头等一系列不确定、不稳定性因素增加，给出口蒙上阴影。

But also should see,The future export is also faced with some the influence of unfavorable factors.Now the world economy is in contradiction,Trade protectionism growth and a series of uncertainty/Instability factors increase,To export overshadowed.

　　尽管国内目前已采取一些措施，但出口能否回升的关键在企业。企业应该加大扩大市场的力度，尽快作出调整。提高高附加值产品的生产、控制和降低生产成本，在结构调整中，谋求发展的出路。

Although at present in our country has taken some measures,But whether the key export back in the enterprise.Enterprise should intensify efforts to expand the market,Adjust as soon as possible.Improve the production of high value-added products/Control and reduce production cost,In the structure adjustment of,Seek a way out.

　QE3对外贸负面影响较多 QE3 on foreign trade more negative impact

　　中国证券报：QE3的推出对我国外贸会有何影响？

China's stock certificate report:QE3 launch to our country foreign trade will have any influence?

　　霍建国：QE3对中国经济的短期影响不大，但中长期影响不利。我认为，总体来看，其对中国外贸的负面影响多一些。

HuoJianGuo:QE3 to China's economic short-term impact is not big,But long-term adverse effects.I think,overall,The China's foreign trade more than the negative effects of some.

　　首先，QE3的推出将推高国际大宗商品价格，促使国内原材料价格上涨，给中国带来输入型通胀压力。对原本生产成本就高的国内企业来说，无疑增加了压力。

First of all,QE3 launch will be pushed GaoGuoJi commodity prices,Prompted domestic raw material rises in price,Bring to China imported inflation pressure.Originally to the cost of production is high for domestic enterprises,No doubt increased the pressure.

　　其次，QE3的推出，中长期内将导致美元走向疲软，资产的缩水又增加了我国外汇资产调整的压力。这一方面给世界经济运行带来新的矛盾，另一方面给新兴国家带来新的压力。

secondly,QE3 launch,In the medium and long term will cause the dollar to weakness,Assets shrink and increased foreign exchange assets adjustment pressure.On the one hand to the world economy operation bring new contradiction,On the other hand to emerging countries bring new pressure.

　　但若QE3能使美国经济出现回升、市场需求出现回暖，短期内将拉动中国的出口。从这点上看，它对我国外贸是一个积极的因素。但长期而言，美元贬值、人民币走高仍旧对中国出口产生不利影响。

But if QE3 can make the U.S. economy appears picks up/The market demand appear warmer,In the short term will pull China's export.From this perspective,It to our country foreign trade is a positive factor.But in the long run,dollar/Yuan go high still produce unfavorable effects on exports to China.

　外贸将低速增长 Foreign trade will slow growth

　　中国证券报：你对全年外贸形势的判断是怎样的？

China's stock certificate report:You for the judgement of the situation of foreign trade is what kind of?

　　霍建国：整体来看，全年外贸处于一个较低的增长水平上。在内外部环境不出现大的变化的情况下，年末外贸增长速度或能达到中速水平。但现在来看，形势比较严峻、外贸实现10%增长目标的任务较为艰巨。按当前增速算，后几个月的进口可能有超过10%以上的增长余地，但后三个月的出口必须达到15%的增速才能保证目标的实现，这是比较困难的。

HuoJianGuo:The whole,The foreign trade in a lower growth level.In the external environment does not appear large change,The end of the year the foreign trade growth rate or can reach the level of medium speed.But now to see,Situation is severe/Foreign trade achieve 10% growth target task more difficult.According to the current is growth,After several months of imports may have more than 10% growth room,But after three months of export must achieve 15% growth to guarantee the realization of the goal,This is difficult.

　　至于明年的外贸形势，应该不会有大的变化。因为现在世界经济还存在很多变数，没有呈现出稳步回升的迹象，因此，明年外贸仍旧会面临较大的增长压力。

As for next year's foreign trade situation,Should not have big changes.Now the world economy because there are still a lot of variables,Did not show signs of rebound steadily,therefore,Next year the foreign trade still will face greater growth pressure.