CUBN记者 郭安丽 北京报道

CUBN reporter GuoAnLi reports from Beijing

　　9月17日，中国人民银行公开发布了《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》(以下简称《规划》)。这份由中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会、中国保险监督管理委员会、国家外汇管理局共同编制的《规划》，在重点分析“十二五”时期面临的机遇与挑战的基础上，提出了“十二五”时期金融业发展和改革的主要目标，进一步完善货币政策调控，优化货币政策目标体系，更加突出价格稳定目标。

On September 17,The people's bank of China issued by the public[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning](Hereinafter referred to as[planning]).This by the people's bank of China/The China banking regulatory commission/The China securities regulatory commission/China insurance regulatory commission/Jointly compiled by the ministry of the state administration of foreign exchange[planning],This paper mainly analyzes"1025"Period of facing opportunity and challenge of basis,Puts forward the"1025"Period of development of finance and the main goals of the reform,To further improve the monetary policy regulation,Optimization of monetary policy target system,More outstanding price stability target.

　　金改规划的两大量化目标

Gold change planning two big quantification target

　　《规划》从完善金融调控、优化组织体系、建设金融市场、深化金融改革、扩大对外开放、维护金融稳定、加强基础设施等七个方面，明确了“十二五”时期金融业发展和改革的重点任务。

[planning]From the perfect financial control/Optimization organization system/Construction financial markets/To deepen financial reform/Expand opening to the outside world/Maintaining the stability of financial/Strengthen infrastructure in seven aspects,Made clear"1025"Period financial industry development and reform of the key tasks.

　　金融“十二五”《规划》中，提出了“十二五”期间金融发展的一系列目标。清晰的数量目标就有两个：一个是金融服务业的增加值占国内生产总值的比重保持在5%左右，这是一个将金融业作为一个产业来评估的指标；另外一个指标则是“十二五”末期，直接融资比重要占到社会融资总额的15%，这是社会融资结构的一个调整指标。

financial"1025"[planning]in,Puts forward the"1025"During a series of financial development target.The number of clear goals have two:One is the financial services sector accounted for the proportion of GDP remain at around 5%,This is a financial industry as an industry to evaluate index;Another index is"1025"The end,Direct financing than important accounted for 15% of the total amount of financing to society,This is a social financing structure adjustment index.

　　自2005年以来，我国金融业占比GDP持续上升，2009年金融业占比GDP已经超过5%，2009-2011年金融业占比GDP一直维持在5%以上。因此，业内人士表示，“十二五”期间维持和提高金融服务业在GDP中5%的比重是可以实现的目标。

Since 2005,China's financial industry than GDP accounted for continues to rise,2009 years of financial industry than GDP has more than 5%,2009-2011 years of financial industry than GDP has been maintained at more than 5%.therefore,The personage inside course of study says,"1025"Maintain and improve during the financial services in GDP is 5% of the target can be realized.

　　2009~2011年，金融服务业在GDP中的占比稳定在5%左右。假设“十二五”期间名义经济规模每年增长15%，则至2015年底金融服务业增加值可达42万亿元以上。

2009 ~ 2011,Financial services in the GDP accounted for stable than at around 5%.hypothesis"1025"The name during economic scale grew by 15% a year,By the end of 2015 the financial services industry added value of 42 trillion yuan of above.

　　至于金改规划的另外一个主要目标：到“十二五”期末，非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。分析人士认为要实现在这个目标也绝非难事。

As for the gold to planning another main goal:to"1025"The final,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.Analysts believe that in order to realize this goal is in it.

　　国泰君安发布的报告显示，非金融企业直接融资分为债券融资和股权融资，过去十年非金融企业直接融资增长是非常迅猛的。非金融企业直接融资/社会融资的比值持续增长，2011年占比达到14%，2012年前7月该占比已经超过了15%，达到15.3%。

Guotai junan report shows,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing is divided into debt financing and equity financing,Over the past ten years non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing growth is very rapid.Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing/social financing ratio growth,In 2011 reached 14%,2012 years ago the accounts for July than has surpassed 15%,Up to 15.3%.

　　在信贷增速放缓、债券融资发展过程中，企业直接融资占比社会融资总量达到和超过15%是可以在“十二五”期间完成的目标。未来信贷增长将长期放缓，股市的相对低迷也将限制企业进行股权融资，企业债券融资将在未来相当长的一段时间里逐渐成为企业融资的主要方式，其重要性将逐渐超过信贷和股权融资。

In credit growth is slowing/In the process of the development of bond financing,The enterprise of direct financing than social financing amount to more than 15% and can be in"1025"Done during target.The future credit growth will slow for a long time,The stock market downturn will limit the relative enterprise equity financing,Corporate bond financing will be in the future a long period of time gradually become the main mode of enterprise financing,Its importance will gradually over credit and equity financing.

　　稳定物价位居金改首位

Price stability in the gold to the first place

　　“十二五”期间，货币调控将更加突出价格稳定目标。《规划》提出，“十二五”期间要完善市场化的间接调控机制，逐步增强利率、汇率等价格杠杆的作用，推进货币政策从以数量型调控为主向以价格型调控为主转型。作为宏观调控方面的政策，对该项政策的着力点位列金改《规划》提出的八个主要政策着力点的第一位。

"1025"period,Currency regulation will be more outstanding price stability target.[planning]Put forward,"1025"To perfect the market during the indirect regulation mechanism,Escalate interest rates/Exchange rate and the role of price lever,Promoting monetary policy to control from quantitative to give priority to with price type regulation is given priority to transformation.As the macroeconomic regulation and control policy,The policy to the starting point of gold in the change[planning]Put forward eight major policy point of strength first.

　　在货币政策目标体系方面，规划称，将关注更广泛意义的整体价格水平稳定。合理调控货币信贷总量，保持合理的社会融资规模，发挥社会融资规模在货币政策制定中的参考作用。

In the monetary policy target system,Planning says,Focus on broader meaning of the overall price level stability.Reasonable regulation and control currency credit amount,Keep reasonable social financing scale,Giving full play to social financing scale in the monetary policy of the reference role.

　　“中国的货币政策一直以来是多目标制，其中保持经济增长、维持物价稳定是最重要的两个目标。”发改委学术委员会秘书长张燕生告诉《中国联合商报》记者，货币调控更突出价格稳定目标，意味着通胀目标在央行货币政策调控中的权重将比以往有所增大。

"China's monetary policy has been much targeting,Among them maintain economic growth/Maintain price stability is the most important two goals."Development and reform commission academic committee secretary general ZhangYanSheng tell[China joint commercial daily]reporter,Currency regulation more outstanding price stability target,Means that the inflation target in the central bank monetary policy than ever before the weight is increased.

　　在目前相对温和的通胀环境下，货币政策实际存在放松空间。本报记者综合各机构的预测来看，预计9月份CPI为1.9%，其中食品环比为0.7%，同比为3.0%；非食品环比为0.2%，同比为1.4%。在美联储QE3推动下，大宗商品价格仍将处于较高水平，但只要国内货币政策保持适度，则国内通胀水平仍将是温和的。

In the present a relatively benign inflation environment,Monetary policy in existence space to relax.Our reporter comprehensive institutions forecast,CPI is expected in September to 1.9%,The food chain is 0.7%,Up to 3.0%;The food chain is 0.2%,Up to 1.4%.In the federal reserve QE3 driven,Commodity prices will remain in a higher level,But as long as domestic monetary policy to keep a proper,The domestic inflation level will still is mild.

　　金改规划强调“推进金融市场基准利率体系建设，进一步发挥上海银行间同业拆放利率的基准作用，扩大其在市场化产品中的应用。健全中长期市场收益率曲线等”。

Gold change planning emphasizes"To promote financial market benchmark interest rate system construction,Shanghai further play to the interbank loan interest rates reference role,To expand its market products in the application.Improve the long-term market yield curve, etc".

　　利用现有机制推进利率市场化

Use of the existing mechanism promoting interest rate marketization

　　《规划》提出：未来稳步推进利率市场化改革，推进金融市场基准利率体系建设，进一步发挥上海银行间同业拆放利率（SHIBOR）的基准作用，扩大其在市场化产品中的应用。

[planning]Put forward:The future steadily promote the development of market-oriented interest rate reform,To promote financial market benchmark interest rate system construction,Shanghai further play to the interbank loan interest rates(SHIBOR)Benchmark function,To expand its market products in the application.

　　国泰君安的分析报告指出，随着利率市场化进程的展开，理财产品等表外业务的发展，以及商业银行为争夺存款对存款基准利率进行上浮，市场利率与基准利率之间的差异已经非常明显，以SHIBOR作为市场基准利率的重要性将会不断提高。

Guotai junan analysis report,With the interest rate marketization process of the expansion,Financial products off-balance sheet business development,And commercial Banks to compete for deposit to benchmark deposit rate to rise,Market interest rates and the difference between the benchmark interest rate has been very clear,To SHIBOR as the importance of market benchmark interest rate will keep growing.

　　汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌向《中国联合商报》记者表示，未来SHIBOR有可能成为类似LIBOR（伦敦银行同业拆借利率）的市场基准利率锚地，对资金定价机制产生深远影响。

HSBC bank chief economist QuHongBin greater China region to[China joint commercial daily]reporters,The future may be similar SHIBOR LIBOR(London interbank offered rate)Market benchmark interest rate anchorage,Capital pricing mechanism to a far-reaching influence.

　　《规划》同时表示，按照条件成熟程度，通过放开替代性金融产品价格等途径，有序推进利率市场化。强调金融资源的市场化配置是《规划》的一大亮点。《规划》强调，银行、证券、保险业市场化水平显著提升。按照条件成熟程度，通过放开替代性金融产品价格等途径，确保利率市场化朝着“放得开，行得成，调得了”的方向有序推进。另外，股票发行制度市场化改革得到深化，行政审批将进一步弱化。

[planning]At the same time said,According to the condition of maturity,Through the open alternative way such as financial products prices,Orderly propulsion interest rate marketization.Emphasize the marketization of financial resources configuration is[planning]A major bright spot.[planning]emphasize,The bank/securities/The insurance industry marketization level significantly increased.According to the condition of maturity,Through the open alternative way such as financial products prices,Ensure that interest rate marketization toward"Put to open,workable,Adjustable got"Direction and orderly propulsion.In addition,Stock issuing system marketization reform get deepening,Administrative examination and approval will be further weakening.

　　金融机构破产也在《规划》中首次提出，凸显出金融业的市场化改革方向。《规划》要求建立金融机构破产法律体系，规范金融机构市场退出程序。这意味着银行垄断暴利时代的终结，政府为银行业托底的预期将被打消，银行业的市场蛋糕可能被券商、保险部分切分。

Financial institutions in bankruptcy[planning]First put forward in the,Highlights of the financial marketization reform direction.[planning]Request to establish financial institutions bankruptcy legal system,Standard financial institutions market withdrawal program.This means that the bank monopoly profits the end of time,The government for banking TuoDe expectations will be out,Banking market cake can be brokers/Insurance part segmentation.

　　茅于轼在今年夏季达沃斯论坛上曾表示，针对金融体制改革，要积极引导民间资本进入金融领域，“如果没有民间资本进入，利率市场化不会实现”。

MAO yushi, in the summer davos in the BBS has said,According to the reform of the financial system,To actively guide the folk capital into the financial sector,"If there is no private capital into,Interest rate marketization will not achieve".