经济小幅反弹可期

Economic rebound slightly can period

　　中国证券报:9月汇丰中国制造业PMI初值为47.8，比上月小幅提高0.2个百分点，但仍处于警戒线水平以下。如何看待这一数据?

China's stock certificate report: September HSBC China manufacturing PMI initial value is 47.8,Last month than small increased by 0.2%,But he is still below levels in line.How to treat the data?

　　李慧勇:这表明制造业仍很低迷，但跌幅有所放缓。从具体指标看，产出指数为47，比上月下滑1.2个百分点，为10个月最低水平；新订单指数为47.6，比上月提升1.5个百分点，表明新订单指数跌幅有所放缓；就业指数48.1，比上月提升0.5个百分点，表明就业状况尚未转好，但幅度略有改善。

LiHuiYong: this indicates that manufacturing is still weak,But slightly slower decline.From the concrete index to see,Output index of 47,Fell 1.2% last month,The lowest level for 10 months;New orders index was 47.6,Ascension than 1.5% last month,Show that the new orders index decline eased;The employment index 48.1,Ascension than 0.5% last month,Show that employment status has not turned for the better,But amplitude improve slightly.

　　9月统计局公布的制造业PMI预计将小幅回升，从历史数据看，9月PMI回升为大概率事件。在产出不断下行，就业压力增大的背景下，政策微调的力度预计将有所加大，近期地方政府不断推进新项目开工即是证明，我们仍维持四季度经济小幅反弹的判断。

September bureau of statistics released manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound slightly,From the historical data to see,September PMI picks up for big probability event.In the output constantly descending,Under the background of increasing employment pressure,The strength of fine-tuning is expected to increase,The recent local government continuously push forward the new project start is proved,We still maintain the fourth quarter economic rebound slightly judgment.

　　中国证券报：中国经济何时能够企稳？

China's stock certificate report:China's economy will be stabilises?

　　高挺：短期看，中国经济将在四季度企稳，对A股的影响因素将由负转正。中长期因素不会有太大变化，制度改革、释放新的生产力，都是一个较长的过程，但经济下滑也不是一直往下走，四季度经济可能企稳，市场可能会走向偏正面，周期性的制衡力量可能会发生一些变化。所以股市偏向从负面到正面。

High stand:Short-term look at,China's economy will be in the fourth quarter stabilises,The influence factors of to A shares will be negative become A full member.Long-term factor won't have too big change,System reform/Release the new productive forces,Is a long process,But the economic downturn is not go all the way down,Four quarter economy could stabilises,The market may to partial positive,Periodic checks and balances of power may occur some changes.So the stock market deviation from negative to positive.

　　中国证券报:新增外汇占款已连续2个月负增长，未来热钱流出的规模会增加吗?

China's stock certificate report: new funding of foreign exchange has two consecutive negative growth,The future hot money outflow scale will increase?

　　李慧勇:欧债危机拖累欧盟经济陷入衰退，并未取得实质性好转，欧元区经济状况评估仍然较差。美国也面临着财政悬崖和政治大选的风险，加剧了市场的避险情绪，导致大量资金外逃。8月美元指数虽较7月有所回落，但是仍站在82的平均高位，加剧了远期人民币汇率的贬值预期，增大了资金跨境流出的压力。8月CPI小幅反弹，但仍维持在2.0%的低位，为后续降息和下调准备金率打开了政策空间。8月外需虽小幅提升，但大幅低于预期，工业增加值增速持续回落至8.9%，经济下行压力增大。考虑到新增外汇占款趋势性减少并未改变，有必要通过货币政策进行降息降准、加大财政支出力度，以及完善民间资本投资机制，减少资金外流对实体经济带来的不利影响。预计下半年还有一次降息、两次降准。

LiHuiYong: the debt crisis drag the economy into a recession,Has not made any substantial better,The eurozone economy condition evaluation is still poor.The United States also faced with financial cliff and political election risk,Exacerbated the market hedge mood,, resulting in a large number of capital flight.August the dollar index is a July down from their recent highs,But still standing in 82 average high,Increased forward RMB exchange rate depreciation of the expected,Increases the funds cross-border outflow pressure.August CPI small rebound,But still maintained at 2.0% of the low,For subsequent to cut interest rates and cut reserve ratio opened the policy space.August though now small ascension,But significantly lower than expected,Industrial added value growth sustained fall to 8.9%,Economic downward pressure increases.Considering the new funding of foreign exchange trend reduce did not change,It is necessary to through the monetary policy must cut interest rates drop/Increase the fiscal expenditure strength,And improve and perfect the folk capital investment mechanism,Reduce capital flight to the negative effect of the real economy.The second half of a rate cut is expected to have/Two drop must.

　　高挺：外汇占款流出增加反映了市场预期，短期内人民币肯定不会升值。

High stand:Foreign exchange funding of outflow increase reflects the market expectations,In the short term will not RMB appreciation.

　　而有利的是，欧洲央行购买国债的计划虽还未实际操作，但对市场的信心有正面推动，可能会逐步形成对中国出口的支撑。美国经济不温不火，微观企业的盈利还不错，我们对国外的看法比较中性，如果全球经济弱增长，而不是衰退的话，就不必担心中国出口大幅下滑。

And favorable is,The European central bank to buy Treasury plan is not practical,But the market confidence to promote a positive,May gradually formed on China's export support.The American economy tepid,Microscopic enterprise's profit is good,Our foreign opinion is neutral,If the global economy weak growth,Not a recession words,You do not need to worry about China's exports fell sharply.

　　中国证券报:继欧美先后启动无限量购债计划后，日本央行也迅速行动，增加量化宽松规模,这是否超出市场预期?

China's stock certificate report: in Europe and the United States has start an unlimited purchase debt after the plan,The bank of Japan is also rapid action,Increase the scale of quantitative easing,This is more than the market expected?

　　李慧勇:扩大资产购买规模将为日本经济注入更多流动性，对日本长短期国债利率形成压制，加强并延长了人们对低利率的预期。尽管这是一个偏积极的信号，但对于已深陷流动性陷阱的日本经济提振有限，遏制汇率升值的趋势也需要进一步干预措施，而且将助长商品价格，导致全球通胀压力再起。

LiHuiYong: expand the asset purchase for Japan's economic scale will inject more liquidity,Short-term national debt interest rates to Japan forming pressing,Reinforce and extend the people to the low interest rates expected.Although this is a partial positive signal,But to have liquidity trap in the Japanese economic boost limited,Curb the trend of exchange rate appreciation also need further intervention measures,And will encourage commodity prices,Lead to global inflation pressure rise.

　　

市场运行特征已变 Market operation characteristics has become

　　中国证券报:经济转型还没有完成，但是市场转型已经开始。怎么看市场转型和经济变化？

China's stock certificate report: economic restructuring is not complete,But the market transformation has started.How to see the market transformation and economic change?

　　高挺：在房地产方面，去年末大部分人预计会有10%的跌幅，而今年实际销售情况好于预期，在非常严格的控制下还有一个增长。一是因为压抑了较长时间的需求释放，二是降息引发的政策预期，政府进一步打压的动力不强。房地产投资一般滞后销售6到8个月，如果销售没有很大逆转，四季度投资额将开始回升。

High stand:In real estate,Proceedings most people is expected to have a 10% fall,This year the actual sales situation better than expected,In very strict control and a growth.A because of the depression for a long time demand release,The second is expected to cut interest rates caused by the policy,The government to further crack down on power is not strong.Real estate investment general lagging sales six to eight months,If sales are not big reversal,Four quarter investment will begin to rebound.

　　基础设施投资方面，年初到现在，投资在缓慢增加，效果逐渐显现，增加了经济增长的动力。发改委前段时间集中公布审批的新项目并不是一轮大的财政刺激，因为这些项目大多数时间比较长，每年的财政支出很少，不像四万亿元是两年内支出的。另外，大多数城市财政要承担35%-40%的资金，现在地方政府难有财力支持，所以短期对经济的影响比较小。

Infrastructure investment,The year to now,Investment in the slow increase,Effect appears gradually,Increased the economic growth.Development and reform commission recently announced the new project examination and approval focus and not a large fiscal stimulus,Because these items most time is long,Every little fiscal expenditure,Unlike four trillion yuan is two years of spending.In addition,Most urban finance should assume 35% - 40% of the funds,Now it is hard to local government financial support,So the short-term impact on the economy of smaller.

　　中国证券报:市场在经济转型的过程中是否有自身的风险偏好等方面的变化?

China's stock certificate report: the market in the process of economic transformation have their own risk preference of the change of the respect such as?

　　钟华:自4万亿元规划之后，A股市场的运行节奏已经展现出相比经济结构更快的转型，主要体现在以下三个方面：一是投资风险偏好的转变。在2010年之前，股市中的ST股与*ST股均跑赢A股，但在2010年之后这种情况不存在了，这表明当经济转型、资金利率水平相比于之前有所提高的时候，高风险、高回报组合策略就会失效。

Apart: since the 4 trillion yuan after planning,A-share market running rhythm have shown that compared to the transformation of economic structure faster,Mainly reflects in the following three aspects:One is the change of investment risk preference.In the 2010 years ago,The stock market in the ST shares and * ST shares are run to win A share,But in 2010 after this situation did not exist,This shows that when the economic transformation/Funds rate compared to the level before the time increased,High risk/High returns combination strategy will be failure.

　　二是如果将行业分类归结到三级细分子行业的话，我们发现2012年以来超额收益更多的来自于行业的超额成长，行业的投资价值分布有别于传统周期中的行业轮动规律，这意味着经典的消费滞后周期调整的逻辑并不完全适用。

The second is if the industry classification boils down to level 3 fine molecular industry words,We found that since 2012 the excess earnings more from the industry's excess growth,Industry investment value distribution is different from the traditional cycle industry wheel dynamic laws,This means that the classical consumption hysteresis cycle adjustment logic is not applicable.

　　三是银行的整体市值波动不仅与阶段性的盈利、估值有关，而且受其未来相对成熟经济体的市值天花板的抑制。当然，在这个过程中，目前市场有些过于悲观传统型行业的市值天花板问题，而忽视了在转型演进中行业内部的市值再集中过程。

Three is the bank's overall market value fluctuation not only with periodic profit/Valuation about,And by the future relative mature economies the market value of the inhibition of the ceiling.Of course,In this process,The present market some too pessimistic traditional industry ceiling the market value of the problem,And ignore the transformation in the evolution of the market value of the industry concentration process again.

　　

四季度上行动力渐强 Four quarters upward momentum gradually strong

　　中国证券报:股市四季度波动区间有多大?

China's stock certificate report: the stockmarket four quarter fluctuation interval have how old?

　　钟华:股市的最大魅力就是在价格不断的下移中，未来的预期回报率反而在上升，剔除盈利、流动性等周期波动因素之外，股市有其内在的稳定上升的动力。美股百年以来按照最低点的支撑年化回报率差不多在7%左右，也基本等于12%的ROE和5%红利相减之后的差值，这代表了稳定ROE水平下股市最基本的回报。如果按照此种规律测算，A股目前的位置已经具备盈利、流动性之外的内生支撑优势，股市就是股市，价格便宜就是王道。

Apart: the stock market is the biggest charm in price continuously in the down,Future expected rate of return on the rise instead,Eliminate earnings/Liquidity and cycle fluctuation outside factors,The stock market has its inherent stability rising power.Us stocks since one hundred according to its lowest point support annualised rate of return almost at around 7%,Also the basic equal to 12% of the ROE and 5% bonus after the subtraction of the difference,This represents the ROE stability under the most basic level of stock market returns.If according to this law measure,A share current location has profit/Liquidity outside of the endogenous support advantage,Stock market the stock market is,The price is cheaper springs.

　　而市场在近两个月政策预期减弱、8月PMI再度回落的悲观预期释放之后，后续四季度政策稍有变化，或者经济在底部呈现一些企稳的信号，都可以视为A股向上运行的催化剂，至于能够走多高，10%的均衡回报应该不会成为一种奢求。四季度A股的波动区间在2000点-2300点，如果市场重新回到2000点以下，那也只是市场提供的一次未来更高回报的机会。

And the market in the last two months policy is expected to weaken/August PMI dropped back again pessimistic expectations after release,The subsequent four quarter a slight change of policy,Or economic present some at the bottom of stabilising signal,Can be regarded as A shares up operation of the catalyst,As to be able to go much higher,10% of the equilibrium return should not become a crave.Four quarter a-share fluctuation interval in 2000 points - 2300 points,If the market back to below 2000,That also is only the market to provide a higher chance to future returns.

　　高挺：展望四季度，瑞银预计全球经济的增长势头将在下半年逐步改善，而国内宏观经济走势也有望触底，瑞银预计2012年和2013年的GDP增速分别为7.5%和7.8%，房地产销售和投资有所恢复，财政和货币政策力度增强，去库存结束之后工业生产将有所回升，以及外围经济趋向稳定，这些都是2013年经济增长的主要动力。

High stand:Four quarter are,Ubs that global economic growth momentum in the second half will gradually improve,And domestic macroeconomic trends also is expected to touch bottom,Ubs is expected to 2012 and 2013 GDP growth of 7.5% and 7.8% respectively,Real estate sales and investment resumed,Fiscal and monetary policy efforts to strengthen,After the stock to industrial production will have rebounded,And peripheral economy stable trend,These are the economic growth in 2013 main power.

　　中国证券报:市场回落之后,具有投资价值的行业和公司有哪些?

China's stock certificate report: the market back later,Has the investment value of the industry and the company what?

　　钟华:行业配置与主题方面，我们看好目前具备估值优势的金融以及电子、医药领域、石油开采上端产业链的细分行业，主题投资围绕节能环保和“漂亮50”。 我们预计上市公司盈利四季度有望恢复正增长，虽然四季度金融行业业绩增长将从三季度的9.5%进一步下滑至7%，但非金融上市公司四季度同比增速有望从三季度的-11.1%回升至9.9%，从而带动四季度A股上市公司整体业绩增长回升至8.6%，预计全年A股整体业绩增长0.1%。

Apart: industry configuration and thematically,We will now have the valuation advantage financial and electronic/Medical field/Oil mining top industry chain segmentation industry,Theme around energy conservation and environmental protection and investment"Beautiful 50". We expect that listed companies' profit four quarter to restore positive growth,Although the four quarter financial industry earnings growth from 9.5% of the third quarter will further decline to 7%,But non-financial listed companies from four quarter year-on-year growth is expected to be the third quarter - 11.1% back up to 9.9%,Thus promote the fourth quarter a-share listed company overall performance growth back up to 8.6%,The A shares is expected to increase 0.1% overall performance.

　　高挺：建议投资者适当提高投资组合的弹性，可以关注销售回暖、景气度回升的房地产板块；受益于原材料成本下行的电力、家电；以及在货币政策偏宽松阶段表现较好的非银行金融（保险、证券等）。同时建议投资者配置增长相对确定的食品饮料和医药板块，以及受益于海外量化宽松的部分商品，如贵金属、农产品等。

High stand:Suggest investors appropriate to improve the flexibility of the portfolio,Can focus on sales milder/The boom of resilience of the real estate sector;Benefit from the raw material cost down power/Home appliance;And in the monetary policy partial loose stage performance good non-bank financial(insurance/securities).At the same time suggest investors configuration growth relative certain food and beverage and medicine plate,And benefit from overseas quantitative easing of a portion of the goods,Such as precious metals/Agricultural products.