本报记者 唐玮 北京报道

Our reporter TangWei reports from Beijing

　　2003年启动的金融改革无疑是成功的，推动了中国经济和金融业的快速发展，并让中国金融机构从“技术性破产”摇身变成全球翘楚，而无须弹冠相庆，因为新一轮的金融改革已经来了。

2003 start of financial reform is undoubtedly successful,To promote China's economic and financial industry's rapid development,And let China from financial institutions"Technical bankruptcy"Shake the body into the global leaders,Without congratulate each other,Because a new round of financial reform has come.

　　日前，国务院批准了由中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会、中国保险监督管理委员会、国家外汇管理局共同编制的《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》以下简称《规划》。

a,The approval of the state council by the people's bank of China/The China banking regulatory commission/The China securities regulatory commission/China insurance regulatory commission/Jointly compiled by the ministry of the state administration of foreign exchange[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning]Hereinafter referred to as[planning].

　　如果说2003年以金融机构为主的金改是“背水一战”的话，那么此次以市场化为主的新金改，优化金融资源配置生态，助力经济增长方式转型，缓解经济内外失衡风险，将关乎“长治久安”。

If 2003 with financial institutions mainly was to gold"Bite the bullet and"words,So the market to give priority to new gold change,Optimize the allocation of financial resources ecological,Power economic growth mode transformation,Ease the economic imbalance internal and external risk,Will for"stability".

　　虽然《规划》依然保持了传统规划报告的习惯，重在原则性描述，在推动具体改革和实施方案又显得略微模糊，但《规划》兼容并包，涉及了战略和战术多方面内容，详细勾勒出了金融改革的路线图。

although[planning]Still keep the traditional planning report habits,Emphasis on description of principle,In promoting reform and specific implementation plan and appear a little fuzzy,but[planning]Compatible and package,Involved in the strategic and tactical aspects of content,Detailed draws the outline of the financial reform the roadmap.

　　

坚持市场化主线 Adhere to the market-oriented lines

　　一系列金融改革措施如火如荼地推出，只因内外都已陷入困境。

A series of financial reform measures like a raging fire to launch,Because inside and outside are already in trouble.

　　对内，金融垄断以及效率偏低，已经不利于金融发挥为实体经济服务的功能。

internal,Financial monopoly and low efficiency,Have go against financial play to the function of the service of the real economy.

　　而早在今年年初的第四次全国金融工作会议上，就延续了去年的中央经济工作会议的基调，其主题落在了“金融服务实体经济”上，这一主题自然成了未来一段时期金融改革和发展的指导思想。

And earlier this year's fourth national financial work conference,It lasted for last year's central economic work conference fundamental key,Its theme landed in the"Financial service entity economy"on,This one theme naturally became the future a period of financial reform and development of the guiding ideology.

　　对外，显而易见，由于中国在当前国际货币体系中处于弱势地位，受到主要货币发行国的政策牵制，央行独立性也受到挑战。

foreign,obviously,As China in the current international monetary system in a vulnerable position,Issued by the major currencies of the kingdom of containment policy,The central bank independence also challenged.

　　因此，中信证券(600030,股吧)分析师朱炎认为，现阶段推进金融改革要兼顾内外矛盾，改革的两大核心任务一是市场化改革，包含多层次金融市场的建立，关注价格指标，促进金融机构打破垄断参与竞争等；二是扩大对外开放，包括推进资本账户的稳步开放、离岸金融中心建设、人民币国际化等，改革的最终目标还是回归到促进金融更好地支持实体经济。

therefore,Citic securities(600030,guba)Analysts he think,At the present stage to promote financial reform should give consideration to the internal and external contradictions,Reform of the two core task one is the marketization reform,Contains multi-level financial market by establishing the,About price index,Promote the financial institutions to break monopoly participate in the competition, etc;The second is opening wider to the outside world,Including propulsion capital account opening steadily/Offshore financial center construction/RMB internationalization, etc,The ultimate goal of reform or return to promote financial better support the real economy.

　　而央行副行长潘功胜在9月16日谈到金融改革规划时强调，改革的基本原则、基本思想必须坚持市场化和商业化改革路径。“"十二五"金融改革规划，我们请了很多专家学者论证，包括很多战略层面或者战术层面的变革，利率市场化，汇率形成机制市场化，人民币国际化，比如在金融结构方面，中国的间接融资和直接融资；在金融组织结构上，中国银行(601988,股吧)业组织结构，关于微型金融组织的发展；在宏观审慎和微观金融监管方面，怎样构建更加审慎的宏观管理的政策框架。”潘功胜介绍说，《规划》也强调了对于系统性风险的防范，如金融风险在区域之间的溢出，包括这次的欧债危机，财政风险对金融的溢出，也涉及到了中国金融机构国际竞争力的提升，中国金融机构如何走出去、国际化。

And the central bank vice President PanGong wins in September 16 when it comes to financial reform planning emphasizes,The basic principles of the reform/Basic thought must adhere to market-oriented and commercialization reform path.""1025"Financial reform plan,We invited a lot of experts and scholars argumentation,Including many strategic level or tactical change,Interest rate marketization,The formation mechanism of exchange rate marketization,RMB internationalization,For example, in the financial structure,China's indirect financing and direct financing;In the financial organization structure,The bank of China(601988,guba)Industry organization structure,About the development of micro-financing organizations;In the macroscopic and microscopic aspects of prudent financial supervision,How to construct more prudent macroeconomic management policy framework."PanGong - said,[planning]Also emphasized for systemic risk prevention,Such as financial risks in between the region overflow,Including the European debt crisis,Financial risk in financial overflow,Also involves Chinese financial institutions on the enhancement of the international competitiveness,China's financial institutions how to go out/internationalization.

　　而要让市场在金融资源配置中的基础性作用进一步增强，重要课题之一就是利率市场化改革。“《规划》指出了利率市场化的三大任务：一是基准利率体系建设；二是发展存贷利率定价替代产品市场；三是建立央行引导市场利率的机制。在利率市场化的路径上，未来将"按照条件成熟程度，通过放开替代性金融产品价格等途径，有序推进利率市场化"。”兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委分析说。

And let the market in the allocation of financial resources to further strengthen the basic role,One of the important topic is a market-oriented interest rate reform."[planning]Points out that the interest rate marketization of the three major tasks:One is the benchmark interest rate system construction;The second is to develop the loan interest rate pricing alternative product market;Three is to establish the central bank leading the market interest rate mechanism.In the marketization of interest rate on the path,The future will"According to the condition of maturity,Through the open alternative way such as financial products prices,Orderly propulsion interest rate marketization"."Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist lu zhengwei analysis said.

　　中银国际金融分析师袁琳认为，《规划》中再次强调了商业银行利用上海同业拆借市场利率定价的设想，并指出通过替代产品的金融价格放开来推进改革。未来新的金融投资工具和理财业务将不断对传统存款起到分流作用，并且央行可能在一些资产领域推进利用同业拆借利率来定价，最终完成利率市场化。总体而言，该过程对于银行业的利差将会产生较大的压力。

Boc international financial analysts YuanLin think,[planning]It was emphasized again that the commercial Banks in the use of Shanghai interbank lending market interest rate pricing ideas,And points out that through the substitution financial price let go to push forward the reform.The future new financial investment tool and financial management business will continue to the traditional deposit have shunt effect,And the central bank may have in some assets field propulsion using interbank lending interest rates to pricing,Finally complete interest rate marketization.In general,The process for banking carry will produce a greater pressure.

　　

提高直接融资比重 Raise the proportion of direct financing

　　降低间接融资的比重，提高直接融资的地位，一直是改革的内容。此次《规划》也提出了量化标准：到“十二五”末，非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。

To reduce the proportion of indirect financing,To improve the status of direct financing,Has been the content of the reform.the[planning]Also this paper puts forward the measure standard:to"1025"end,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.

　　这个标准似乎并不难达成：2011年全年和2012年前8个月企业债券和股票融资占社会融资总量的比例为14%和15.2%。今年以来企业发债明显提速，尤其是从6月份开始企业债券融资额月均在2000亿以上，今年前8个月企业债券融资已经接近去年全年。民生证券预计，从今年下半年的趋势来看，最终结果会远高于这一目标，到“十二五”期末直接融资比例有望达到20%。

This standard does not seem to hard to reach:In the whole year of 2011 and 2012 years ago 8 months enterprise bond and stock financing accounted for the proportion of the total social financing for 14% and 15.2%.Since this year enterprise FaZhai speed obviously,Especially from June began to enterprise bonds or junk-rated standard in more than 200 billion,In the first eight months of this year enterprise bond financing is close to last year.Minsheng securities is expected to,From the second half of this year the trend,The final result will be far higher than the goal,to"1025"The proportion of direct financing is expected to reach 20%.

　　《规划》的另一量化水平是要求：“十二五”时期，金融服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重保持在5%左右，社会融资规模保持适度增长。

[planning]Another quantitative level is to require:"1025"period,Financial services sector accounted for the proportion of GDP remain at around 5%,Social financing scale maintain moderate growth.

　　5%的目标，意味着管理层并不要求金融业超速增长，但要求推动金融机构主体结构的多元化，要求“银行、证券、保险等主要金融行业的行业结构和组织体系更为合理”，即扩大证券、保险等非银机构比重。

5% of the target,Means that the management does not require financial speed growth,But for financial institutions to promote the diversification of the main structure,requirements"The bank/securities/Insurance and other major financial industry industry structure and organization system is more reasonable",Namely expand securities/Insurance not silver body weight.

　　而市场主体也将逐渐扩大，对于一直希冀能够进入金融服务领域的民间资本而言，《规划》能带来实质性的惊喜，其中鼓励和引导民间资本参与银行、证券、保险等金融机构的改制和增资扩股。支持民间资本参与设立村镇银行、贷款公司、农村资金互助社等新型农村金融机构和小额贷款公司。 虽然上半年银监会、证监会等部门出台落实“新非公36条”实施细则，已经打破了民间资本进入金融业的“玻璃门”，此次被列入“十二五”规划显然更具有标志性意义。此外，金融业“十二五”规划也将金融机构的破产问题纳入了其中。

And the market main body will gradually expand,To always hope to enter in the field of financial services for private capital,[planning]Can bring substantial surprise,Including encouraging and guiding the folk capital to participate in the bank/securities/Insurance of the financial orgnaization such as restructuring and increase endowment spread.Support the folk capital to participate in village bank set up/Loan company/The rural mutual cooperatives and so on the new rural financial institutions and petty loan company. Although the banking regulatory commission (CBRC) in the first half/Securities regulatory commission and other departments issued implementation"Article 36 new non-state-owned"Detailed rules for the implementation of the,Have already broken folk capital into the financial industry"Glass door",This is included in the"1025"Planning obviously more landmark significance.In addition,Financial industry"1025"Planning will also be the bankruptcy of financial institutions problems included among them.

　　

货币政策以价格为主 Monetary policy in the price is given priority to

　　除了坚持市场化方向，《规划》还勾勒出了未来货币政策转型的轮廓。

In addition to adhere to the market-oriented direction,[planning]Also draws the outline of the future monetary policy transformation of the profile.

　　《规划》提出“十二五”期间要优化货币政策目标体系，处理好促进经济增长、保持物价稳定和防范金融风险的关系，推进货币政策从以数量型调控为主向以价格型调控为主转型。

[planning]Put forward"1025"To optimize during monetary policy target system,Handle promote economic growth/Keeping prices stable relationship and guard against financial risks,Promoting monetary policy to control from quantitative to give priority to with price type regulation is given priority to transformation.

　　中国的货币政策一直以来是多目标制，其中保持经济增长、维持物价稳定是最重要的两个目标。货币调控更突出价格稳定目标，意味着通胀目标在央行货币政策调控中的权重将比以往有所增大。

China's monetary policy has been much targeting,Among them maintain economic growth/Maintain price stability is the most important two goals.Currency regulation more outstanding price stability target,Means that the inflation target in the central bank monetary policy than ever before the weight is increased.

　　当前的通胀环境实际较为温和，但在目前的通胀环境下，货币政策实际存在放松的空间。在美联储QE3 的推动下，大宗商品价格仍将处于较高水平。

The current inflation environment actual moderate,But in the current inflation environment,Monetary policy in existence space to relax.In the federal reserve QE3 driven,Commodity prices will remain in a higher level.

　　而日本也于9月19日加入了宽松竞赛，日本央行宣布采取进一步宽松措施，增加资产购买规模10万亿日元。而中国央行迅速于当日在官方网站挂出央行行长周小川在今年4月份的一个讲话。

And Japan also on September 19 joined the loose competition,The bank of Japan announced take further measures to loose,Increased asset purchase scale 10 trillion yen.And China's central bank rapidly in that day in the official website hang out central bank governor zhou xiaochuan in April this year in a speech.

　　周小川表示，量化宽松政策原意可能只是“挖几个渠来放水，使之流向特定的干旱农田”，但实际上变成了“大水漫灌”。他说，中央银行实施大规模量化宽松政策的初衷可能是为了缓解危机和救助有问题的金融机构，但现行法规不支持的情况下做出的是普遍向金融市场注入大量流动性。

Zhou xiaochuan said,Quantitative easing policy intent may be just"Dig several channel to drain,The flow to the specific drought farmland",But in fact became"Flood irrigation".He said,The central bank is carried out large-scale quantitative easing policy purpose may be in order to alleviate the crisis and salvage problematic financial institutions,But the current law does not support made in financial markets is common to inject a large amount of liquidity.

　　周小川用一个比喻说，央行管着“水库大坝”，使之流向特定的干旱农田，但法规说这不是央行的工作，则央行可做的只能是放开闸门大水漫灌，相信一部分水会达到需要的农田。而这会导致一些问题，一是资源有所浪费，如未来有通胀；二是可能出现副作用，如新兴市场遭到过量资本流入；三是不确定需水之处能得到多少，公众是否满意。

Zhou xiaochuan said with a parable,The central bank tube with"Reservoir dam",The flow to the specific drought farmland,But regulations said this is not a central bank's job,The central bank can do is let go of gate flood irrigation,Believe that part of the water will reach the need of farmland.This can lead to some problems,One is the resources to waste,As future inflation;The second is possible side effects,As emerging markets were excessive capital inflows;The third is not sure how much water demand place can get,Whether the public satisfaction.

　　问题的关键是涉及人们对央行目标与职能的法律精神的理解，在特殊情况下需要第一时间予以应对、解决问题，至于是否有足够的依据或授权，可之后再找解释。“实践中我们就是"定向注水"，由中央银行通过汇金公司持有金融机构股权，想办法将其救活了，之后再考虑退出。”周小川也提到货币政策中应考虑对商业银行的激励，他说欧美量化宽松后发现银行部门没有充分响应，这说明应重新考虑货币政策传导问题，将金融部门行为纳入到央行的货币政策模型中去。

The key to the problem is related to people to the central bank target function and the spirit of law understanding,In special cases need the first time to deal with/Solve the problem,As for whether there is sufficient evidence to or authorized,But then find explanation."In practice we are"Orientation injection",The central bank through the huijin company holding shares of financial institutions,Think of a way to the life,Then consider exit."Zhou xiaochuan also noted that the monetary policy should be considered in the incentive to commercial Banks,He said Europe and the United States quantitative easing found that banking sector not fully response,This shows that should reconsider the monetary policy transmission problems,Will the financial departments behavior into the central bank's monetary policy in the model.