在国际宏观形势不明、国内经济出现下行态势的时候，金融改革比任何一个时期都显得更为迫切。9月17日，“一行三会”和外汇局共同编制的《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》（以下简称《规划》）发布，引起业内强烈关注。《中国经营报(博客,微博)》记者采访多位业内专家，试图厘清《规划》的突破以及缺憾，以“关键词”的形式描摹出未来中国金融市场化改革的路线图。

In the international macro situation is unknown/The domestic economy situation appeared down the time,Financial reform than any period can appear more urgent.On September 17,"A line of three will"And jointly compiled by the ministry of foreign exchange bureau[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning](Hereinafter referred to as[planning])release,Cause the strong concern.[China business newspaper(blog,Micro bo)]Reporters many industry experts,Try to determine[planning]Breakthrough and regret,to"keywords"Form delineate the future of China's financial market reform is the roadmap.

　　关键词

keywords

　　存款保险制度

Deposit insurance system

　　进程

process

　　择机出台《存款保险条例》

On the[Deposit insurance act,]

　　建立适合我国国情的金融机构破产法律体系，规范金融机构市场退出程序，加强行政退出与司法破产之间的有效衔接，是《规划》的亮点之一。

Establish suitable for China's national conditions of financial institutions bankruptcy legal system,Standard financial institutions market withdrawal program,Strengthen administrative exit and judicial bankruptcy effective connection between,is[planning]One of the highlight of.

　　《规划》提出，要强化监管维护金融稳定和安全。其中包括，建立完善存款保险制度及金融机构市场退出机制。择机出台《存款保险条例》，明确存款保险制度的基本功能和组织模式。

[planning]Put forward,To strengthen supervision maintain financial stability and security.including,Establish and improve the deposit insurance system and financial institutions market withdrawal mechanism.On the[Deposit insurance act,],Clear the deposit insurance system, the essential function and the organization mode.

　　巴曙松分析，这与“十二五”期间需要推进的一系列金融改革直接相关，例如利率市场化以及金融机构更多转向中小企业和农业等领域、银行业务日趋多元化等，都客观上需要多层次的金融风险防范体系。存款保险制度就是其中代表性的一个组成部分。

Ba shusong analysis,this"1025"Need to promote during a series of financial reform directly related,Such as interest rate marketization and more financial institutions to small and medium-sized enterprises and agriculture, etc/Banking with each passing day diversity, etc,All requires multi-level financial risk prevention system.Deposit insurance system is one of the representative a part.

　　上述不愿意透露姓名的官方人士表示，健全存款保险制度的建立，建立金融机构破产法律体系，规范市场退出程序，无疑是与引导民资进入金融服务业，参与金融改制相辅相乘的。

The anonymous official said,Sound deposit insurance system establishment,To establish financial institutions bankruptcy legal system,Standardize market exit program,What is undoubtedly and guide into financial services,Participate in financial restructuring phase auxiliary matrixes.

　　《规划》指出，在风险可控的前提下，鼓励和引导民间资本参与银行、证券、保险等金融机构的改制和增资扩股。支持民间资本参与设立村镇银行、贷款公司、农村资金互助社等新型农村金融机构和小额贷款公司，增强对“三农”和小微企业的金融服务能力。

[planning]Pointed out that,In the premise of risks are controllable,Encourage and guide the folk capital to participate in the bank/securities/Insurance of the financial orgnaization such as restructuring and increase endowment spread.Support the folk capital to participate in village bank set up/Loan company/The rural mutual cooperatives and so on the new rural financial institutions and petty loan company,To increase"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"And small micro enterprise financial service ability.

　　清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究员袁钢明建议：未来应该进一步鼓励更多的民间资本成立民营银行，在风险可控制范围内推动金融的大发展。

Tsinghua university of China and the world economic research center researchers YuanGang Ming Suggestions:The future should further encourage more private capital private bank was established,In the risk can be controlled within the scope of promoting financial development.

　　关键词

keywords

　　人民币跨境结算

RMB settlement of cross-border

　　进程

process

　　没有明确时间表

There is no clear timetable

　　作为中国金融改革中最为关键的一步，人民币自由兑换一旦迈出，中国金融市场与国际金融市场的融合将大大增强。由此，资本项目放开也成为备受关注的重点。

As China's financial reform in the most crucial step,RMB convertible once take,China's financial market and international financial markets will greatly enhance the integration of.this,Capital project open has become the focus of concern.

　　不过，人民币资本项目完全放开是一个长期的过程，需要利率和汇率市场化加以配合。因此，《规划》并未给出一个明确的预期时间表，这为改革留下了较大空间。

but,RMB capital project is completely let go is a long-term process,Need to interest rate and exchange rate marketization to fit.therefore,[planning]Did not give a clear expected schedule,This reform for left a larger space.

　　不过，值得一提的是，本《规划》未提及“人民币国际化”，仅提及“人民币跨境结算”。这无疑延续了央行此前一直对“人民币国际化”的表述采取的“慎重”态度，而以“人民币跨境使用”代替的一贯思路一脉相承。

but,Be worth what carry is,this[planning]Not mentioned"RMB internationalization",Only mention"RMB settlement of cross-border".This undoubtedly lasted for the central bank to had been"RMB internationalization"The expression of the take"careful"attitude,And to"RMB cross-border use"Instead of always come ideas.

　　《规划》强调的是，要“进一步研究建立人民币对新兴市场货币的双边直接汇率形成机制，积极推动人民币对新兴市场经济体和周边国家货币汇率在银行间外汇市场挂牌。”

[planning]Emphasis is,to"Further study to establish the yuan to emerging market currencies bilateral direct exchange rate formation mechanism,Actively promote the yuan to emerging market economies and neighboring countries currency exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market listing."

　　“盯住新兴市场经济体的意义在于，发展人民币在区域市场的优势。”安邦咨询研究员刘枭分析，“在人民币没有实现自由兑换前，人民币是不可能实现真正国际化的，因为没有畅通的回流渠道。”

"Pegging the emerging market economies significance lies in,The development in the regional market advantage."AnBang consulting researcher LiuXiao analysis,"In the currency was not realized a free exchange before,The yuan is not possible to achieve a truly international,Because there is no clear backflow channel."

　　自2008年12月以来，人民银行与韩国、日本、中东、澳大利亚、东盟等多个国家和地区签署货币互换后，人民币货币互换规模迅速增长。

Since since December 2008,The people's bank and South Korea/Japan/Middle East/Australia/Asean and other countries and regions after signed currency swap,RMB currency swap scale rapid growth.

　　这也有助于降低贸易成本、促进人民币的跨境使用与流通，同时也有助于加强市场在进一步强化人民币汇率形成机制改革中的作用。

This also helps to reduce the trade cost/Promote RMB cross-border use and circulation,At the same time also helps to strengthen market on further strengthening the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform of the action.

　　关键词

keywords

　　货币政策

Monetary policy

　　进程

process

　　转向价格型调控

Steering price regulation model

　　“十二五”期间，货币调控将更加突出价格稳定目标。作为宏观调控方面的政策，对该项政策的着力点位列《规划》提出的八个主要政策的首位。

"1025"period,Currency regulation will be more outstanding price stability target.As the macroeconomic regulation and control policy,The starting point of the policy to ranked[planning]One of the eight major policy put forward the first.

　　一直以来，我国货币政策都是多目标制管理，其中保持经济增长、维持物价稳定是最重要的两个目标。此次《规划》中强调货币调控更突出价格稳定目标，意味着通胀目标在央行货币政策调控中的权重将比以往有所增大。

Has been,China's monetary policy are many targeting management,Among them maintain economic growth/Maintain price stability is the most important two goals.the[planning]Stressed in the currency regulation more outstanding price stability target,Means that the inflation target in the central bank monetary policy than ever before the weight is increased.

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委分析认为，这包含了两方面的含义：一方面是对成熟市场经济国家实行通胀目标制经验的总结和借鉴，也有利于利率市场化更加平稳推进；另一方面，更广泛意义的整体价格水平稳定，意味着不仅仅关注CPI等商品价格的稳定，资产价格的状况也将被纳入关注范围。

Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist lu zhengwei analysis think,It contains two aspects of meaning:On the one hand is the mature market economy countries inflation targeting the summed up the experience of and reference,But also to promote market-oriented interest rate more smoothly;On the other hand,More extensive meaning of the overall price level stability,Means not only pay attention to, such as the stability of the CPI commodity prices,The status of the asset prices will also be included in the scope of attention.

　　一位不愿意透露姓名的官方人士认为，预计存款准备金率的使用频率将有所减少。

An anonymous officials think,The deposit reserve rate is expected to use frequency will be reduced.

　　不过，他强调：“货币政策成功转型的前提是，利率市场化的深化带来金融市场的有效率，再加上金融企业破产退出机制的完善，否则不但调控无效，而且风险将无限波及经济。”

but,He stressed that:"Monetary policy is the premise of successful transformation,The deepening of interest rate marketization bring financial market efficiently,Plus the financial enterprise bankruptcy exit mechanism consummation,Otherwise not only control invalid,And the risk will be infinite sweep economy."

　　值得一提的是，除了货币政策目标将重点关注通胀之外，还提出了要关注更广泛意义的整体价格水平稳定，比如，商品与服务，股票、债券，以及房地产等价格的波动。

Be worth what carry is,In addition to the aim of monetary policies will focus on outside of inflation,Also puts forward more widely attention to the meaning of the overall price level stability,For example,Goods and services,stock/bonds,And real estate price fluctuation.

　　这或许意味着央行在未来制定货币政策时，可能考虑将资产价格作为重要参考。

This may mean that the central bank monetary policy in the future when,May consider asset prices as a important reference.

　　关键词

keywords

　　保险费率市场化

Insurance rate marketization

　　进程

process

　　尚无提及

There is no mention

　　业内人士总结，可以将《规划》中涉及保险业的内容归纳为“三化一拓宽”：市场主体多元化、保险机构专业化、运营管理市场化以及拓宽保险服务领域。而相应的政策大都已经正在研究制定中。

The personage inside course of study summarizes,Can be[planning]Involved in the contents of the insurance industry for induction"Three a widening":Diversification of market/Insurance institutions specialization/Operation management marketization and broaden the field of insurance service.And the corresponding policies are mostly made in research.

　　首先，在市场主体多元化方面，《规划》讲到“规范发展相互保险组织，试点设立自保公司。”

First of all,In the market diversification of aspects,[planning]Talked about"The normalized development of mutual insurance organization,The pilot set up holding company."

　　另外，《规划》中再次提到“支持符合条件的国有资本、民间资本和境外资本投资保险公司。”而自2010年保险牌照再度开闸以来，各类资本涌入保险市场，保险市场主体迅速增多，目前亦并无放缓趋势。

In addition,[planning]Again mentioned"Support to meet the conditions of the state-owned capital/The folk capital and foreign capital investment insurance company."And since 2010 the insurance license since breaking again,All kinds of capital into insurance market,Insurance market main body increased rapidly,At present there is no also slowing trend.

　　但新批保险公司开始向区域性、专业性保险公司转变，《规划》是在鼓励市场主体多元化也是在鼓励保险机构专业化。

But the new batch of insurance company began to regional/Professional insurance company transformation,[planning]Is in the encourage market diversification is in to encourage insurance institutions specialization.

　　除市场主体多元化、保险机构专业化以外，运营管理市场化是《规划》隐含的另一大政策方向，主要体现在公司治理和资金运用两大方面。

In addition to the market main body diversification/Insurance institutions other than professional,Operation management is market[planning]The implicit another big policy direction,Mainly manifests in the corporate governance and capital using two big aspects.

　　其中，公司治理方面，保监会在年初即将研究保险退出机制列为今年的三大工作重心之一。另一方面，《规划》中多次提及的是保险资金运用的市场化改革。包括支持符合条件的中小保险公司设立公司治理完善、股权结构合理、市场化运作的保险资产管理公司，也包括鼓励开展资产管理产品创新，稳步开展保险资金投资不动产和未上市企业股权。目前保监会计划的新13项投资新政陆续出台，保险公司PE、不动产牌照也在密集获批。

the,Corporate governance,The China insurance regulatory commission at the beginning of the study insurance exit mechanism as this year's three big one of the focus.On the other hand,[planning]In many times to mention is insurance funds utilization marketization reform.Including support for qualified small and medium-sized insurance companies set up perfect corporate governance/Equity structure reasonable/Market-oriented operation insurance asset management company,Also includes encouraged asset management product innovation,The steady development of insurance fund investment in real estate and not listed enterprise equity.At present the China insurance regulatory commission plan new 13 new investment comes on stage in succession,Insurance company PE/Real estate licence also in intensive approved.

　　“但是，在市场化方面，《规划》并没有提到费率市场化，自由竞争的内容，而这是决定保险业是否市场化的关键所在。”一位保险公司战略发展部人士认为。

"but,In the marketization in,[planning]And did not mention rate marketization,The content of free competition,And this is to decide whether or not the key to the insurance market."An insurance company strategy development of them think.

　　关键词

keywords

　　信托、金融租赁

trust/Financial leasing

　　进程

process

　　成为规划盲区

Become planning blind area

　　在采访中，多位专家都对《规划》中对于信托和金融租赁行业的缺位表示不解。

In the interview,Many experts on[planning]For the trust and financial leasing industry lack said don't understand.

　　记者也注意到，本《规划》对于银行、保险、券商、基金、期货都做出了较明确的规定，甚至对作为“非正规军”的小额贷款公司、担保机构和典当行都有提及，却唯独少了“金融四大支柱”之一的信托业，通篇报告里也无“信托”字眼。

Our reporter also noticed that,this[planning]For a bank/insurance/brokers/fund/Futures are made more clear rules,Even as"irregulars"Micro-credit company/Guarantee agencies and pawn lines are mentioned,But less"Financial four pillar"Trust industry, one of the,Pages in the report no"trust"word.

　　而在“十一五”规划中，对于信托、租赁公司都有提及。“十一五”规划明确表示，要将“信托投资公司办成提供资产管理、财务顾问等服务的专业化理财机构。发挥金融租赁公司在企业技术更新、设备改造和中小企业融资等方面的积极作用,鼓励商业银行参股或设立金融租赁公司。”

And in"11th five-year plan"planning,For the trust/Leasing company are mentioned."11th five-year plan"Planning made it clear that,will"The trust and investment companies be provide asset management/Financial advisers and other services professional financial institutions.Play a financial leasing company in enterprise technology update/Equipment transformation and small and medium-sized enterprise financing, such as positive role,Encourage commercial bank shares or to set up financial leasing company."

　　而随着信托业规模的快速扩张，其重要性也逐渐显现。截止到目前，信托资产规模已经接近6万亿元人民币，其中，银信合作业务占比大于三成，此外还有大量的其他通道类业务。

With the rapid expansion of the scale of trust industry,Its importance also gradually revealed.Up to present,The trust assets scale has close to 6 trillion yuan RMB,the,Such cooperation business accounts for more than thirty percent ratio,In addition there are a lot of other channel kind of business.

　　普益财富相关分析人士认为，信托缺位的直接原因是其他金融机构的业务拓展，资产管理业务已经全面铺开，对信托公司业务产生的挤出效应。

PuYi wealth related analysts believe,Lack of trust is the direct cause of the other financial institutions of business development,The asset management business has spread to open completely,To trust company business produce extrusion effect.

　　目前，银行、券商、基金、保险、期货公司都在大力拓展自身的资产管理业务，无论是在优质产品的选择上还是在客户的争夺上，都对信托公司构成竞争。

At present,The bank/brokers/fund/insurance/Futures companies are vigorously develop their own asset management business,Both in the choice of quality products or in the race for the customer,All the trust company competition.

　　此外，信托公司自主管理能力不高，“融资工具”角色没有根本转变，尚未成为典型的金融机构，也是其边缘化的内在原因。

In addition,Trust company independent management ability is not high,"Financing tool"There is no fundamental change roles,Has not yet become typical financial institutions,Is also the marginalization of the internal cause.

　　关键词

keywords

　　利率市场化

Interest rate marketization

　　进程

process

　　尚无量化目标

There is no quantitative target

　　利率市场化、人民币汇率形成机制等问题一直是金融改革的焦点所在，然而，此次《规划》中对上述两方面改革的描述并无太多新意。

Interest rate marketization/The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is always the focal place of the financial reform,however,the[planning]For the above-mentioned two aspects in the reform of the description and without too much new idea.

　　“不仅表述上没有太多新的提法，而且，也没有给出改革关键要素明确的时间表和量化目标。”一位不愿意透露姓名的官方人士告诉记者，“有时间有措施才叫《规划》，目前《规划》还是以改革为主线，而非以发展为主线。”

"Not only the expression without too much new formulation,and,Also did not give reform key elements clear schedule and quantitative target."An anonymous official told reporters,"Time has just call measures[planning],At present[planning]Or to reform as the main line,Rather than take development as the main line."

　　事实上，我国在1996年实现了同业拆借市场的利率市场化，并且在随后的十多年里，货币市场利率市场化程度不断完善。

In fact,Our country in 1996, realize the interbank lending market interest rate marketization,And in the next ten years,Money market interest rate marketization of continuously perfect.

　　然而时至今日，作为利率市场化改革的重要步骤，“什么时候放开存款利率上限、贷款利率下限，由商业银行自主定价，《规划》中都没有明确。”

However today,As an important step of market-oriented interest rate reform,"When lift the ceiling on deposit interest rates/Loan interest rate lower limit,By the commercial bank independent pricing,[planning]Is no clear."

　　兴业银行首席经济学家，市场研究总监鲁政委还指出，各项改革之间的关系与推进的协调性与次序仍然未能清晰显示，“利率市场化与综合化经营之间的协调；巴塞尔协议与资产证券化、综合化经营推进之间的协调”等问题。鲁政委的建议是，应进一步出台细则予以明确。否则，利率市场化朝着《规划》中“放得开，行得成，调得了”的方向或难有序推进。

Industrial bank chief economist,Market research director lu zhengwei also point out,The relationship between the reform and promote the harmony and order still failed to clear display,"Interest rate marketization and the coordination between the comprehensive management;Basel agreement and asset securitization/Comprehensive management promote the coordination between the"problems.Lu zhengwei suggestion is,Should further on clarifying the rules.otherwise,Interest rate marketization toward[planning]in"Put to open,workable,Adjustable got"Direction or difficult orderly propulsion.

　　不过，从《规划》中可知，上海银行间市场同业拆借利率将在利率市场化中扮演重要角色。

but,from[planning]That in,Shanghai interbank market interbank lending rates in interest rate marketization will play an important role.

　　这就意味着，随着利率市场化进程的展开，理财产品等表外业务的发展，以及商业银行为争夺存款对存款基准利率进行上浮，市场利率与基准利率之间的差异已经非常明显，以SHIBOR作为市场基准利率的重要性将不断提高。

This means that,With the interest rate marketization process of the expansion,Financial products off-balance sheet business development,And commercial Banks to compete for deposit to benchmark deposit rate to rise,Market interest rates and the difference between the benchmark interest rate has been very clear,To SHIBOR as the importance of market benchmark interest rate will continue to improve.

　　关键词

keywords

　　直接融资比例

Proportion of direct financing

　　进程

process

　　首次提出量化指标

This paper proposes for the first time quantization index

　　与以往不同，《规划》首次提出了金融业发展的量化指标：一是金融服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重保持在5%左右，二是非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。

And different,[planning]This paper first puts forward the development of financial quantitative index:One is the financial services sector accounted for the proportion of GDP remain at around 5%,Second is financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.

　　“这一量化目标毫无悬念地能完成。”清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究员袁钢明认为，指标定得过低了。

"The quantitative target no suspense can finish."Tsinghua university of China and the world economic research center researchers YuanGang Ming think,Index set too low.

　　央行公开数据显示，2011年金融业增加值占比为5.09%，直接融资占比为14%，已经基本达到上述目标。

The central bank public data display,In 2011, the financial industry sector accounted for more than 5.09%,Direct financing accounted for more than 14%,Has been basically achieve the above targets.

　　一个毋庸置疑的事实是，我国直接融资比例偏高是不争的事实。

A fact is beyond doubt,Our country direct financing proportion is on the high side is an indisputable fact.

　　然而，在今年未来信贷增长长期放缓，股市相对低迷的情况下，企业债券融资或许将在相当长的一段时间里逐渐成为企业融资的主要方式，其重要性将逐渐超过信贷和股权融资。

however,This year in credit growth slowdown in the future for a long time,The stock market under the condition of relatively low,Corporate bond financing may be for quite a long time gradually become the main mode of enterprise financing,Its importance will gradually over credit and equity financing.

　　截止到今年8月，社会融资总规模为1.24万亿元，其中企业债（2584亿元）加上股票融资（208亿元）比重已超过22%。

By the end of August this year,Social financing total scale for 1.24 trillion yuan,The QiYeZhai(258.4 billion yuan)Plus stock financing(20.8 billion yuan)Specific gravity has more than 22%.

　　所以，提高直接融资比重，重点在积极发展债券市场，而不是股市。“但遗憾的是，相比于股票市场的面面俱到，《规划》对于债券市场改革的措辞仍然模棱两可，很难看出改革的决心。”安邦咨询研究员刘枭称。

so,Raise the proportion of direct financing,Focus on the positive development of the bond market,Rather than the stock market."But it is a pity that,Compared to the stock market reach every aspect of a matter,[planning]The wording of the reform for the bond market is still ambiguous,It's hard to see the determination to reform."AnBang consulting researcher LiuXiao says.

　　实际上，困扰中国债券市场发展的主要瓶颈是市场分割与多头监管。《规划》在谈及债券市场发展时，仍然回避统一债券市场的命题，取而代之“加强各部门协调配合”，言下之意是，“统一的债券市场并不是"十二五"期间金融改革的主要目标，这意味着，债券市场"多龙治水"的既得利益格局很难打破。”

In fact,With the development of China's bond market the main bottleneck is market segmentation and long supervision.[planning]In reference to the bond market development,The bond market is still avoid unified proposition,instead"To strengthen the department coordination",Implication is,"Unified the bond market is not"1025"The major goal of during the financial reform,This means that,Bond market"Many dragon water conservancy"Vested interests pattern is very difficult to be broken."

　　本版文章除署名外均由本报记者夏欣采写

This article in addition to sign outside all by our reporter XiaXin collection &composition