本报记者 陈无诤 特约记者 亦沁末 发自广州、香港 Our reporter Chen no Zheng stringer also end wage-earners from guangzhou/Hong Kong

　　中国逾20万亿的影子银行悬河岌岌可危—随着非银行金融机构的急剧发展，一个游离在传统监管之外的影子银行体系愈发膨胀。谁来监管？如何监管？

China's more than 20 trillion shadow hanging river bank is at stake - along with the rapid development of non-bank financial institutions,A free in the traditional supervision outside of the shadow banking system increasingly expansion.Who will supervision?How to regulate?

　　高利贷案件日前在中国不断曝光，一条传销式的多层次金字塔式高利贷集资链条被呈现出来，将民间资金与众多担保公司、典当行以及其他非银行金融机构，联结成一个游离于传统监管体系之外的地下金融体系—也有人形象地将之称为影子银行。

Usury case in China has continuously exposure,A pyramid selling type multi-level pyramid type usury funding chain was presented,Will the folk capital and many guarantee company/Pawnshop and other non-bank financial institutions,Coupling into a free from traditional outside supervision system of underground financial system - some image to be called shadow Banks.

　　中国影子银行凶猛的背后，是全球金融风险的持续加剧。10月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在东京召开2012年下半年《全球金融稳定报告》新闻发布会，IMF特别对中国的影子银行表示担忧其潜在风险。

Chinese shadow Banks fell behind,Is the financial risk of growing.On October 10,,The international monetary fund(IMF)Held in Tokyo in the second half of 2012[Global financial stability report]Press conference,IMF especially for China's shadow Banks expressed concern about the potential risks.

　　IMF的担忧正是困扰中国银监会的难题。银监会前主席刘明康明确表示，对于影子银行的监管做起来不容易，没有一些监管机构可以扮演这个角色，这个领域现在还是非常模糊。

The IMF's concern is with the problem of the China banking regulatory commission.CBRC chairman before mingkang made clear,For the shadow banking regulatory it is not easy,Without some regulators can play this role,This field is still very fuzzy.

　　监管层的困惑在银行界亦有回应。在不久前的达沃斯论坛上中国银行(601988,股吧)董事长肖钢疾呼：“中国金融未来五年最大的风险，就是中国式的影子银行体系。”

Supervision layer confusion in the banking sector has also respond to.In the recent davos BBS on the bank of China(601988,guba)The chairman XiaoGang up:"China's financial future five years the biggest risk,Is the Chinese shadow banking system."

　　影子银行规模究竟多少，一直扑朔迷离。根据银监会首席顾问沈联涛此前估算，2010年存量影子银行贷款已达20万亿元。

Shadow Banks scale how much on earth,Has been complicated and confusing.According to the CBRC ShenLian chief adviser out previously estimated,2010 stock shadow bank loans has reached 20 trillion yuan.

　　野村证券的一份研究报告称，2010年中国影子银行放款规模达到8.5万亿元，为银行贷款总量的18%。央行公布的数据显示，2011年上半年人民币贷款以外的融资规模占到整个社会融资规模的46.3%。

Nomura securities said the report,In 2010, the Chinese shadow bank lending scale up to 8.5 trillion yuan,For 18% of the total bank loans.The central bank figures showed,In the first half of 2011 RMB loan outside of financing scale accounted for 46.3% of the whole social financing scale.

　　“中国影子银行体系比国外要大得多。”多年致力于温州模式研究的温州中小企业协会会长周德文告诉时代周报，因此去年才会出现这么严重的民间借贷危机，这也跟我们监管体系不健全、没有发挥很大的作用关系密切。

"Chinese shadow banking system is much larger than abroad."Years of dedicated to wenzhou model research of the wenzhou small and medium-sized enterprise association ZhouDeWen told times weekly,So last year will appear so serious folk loan crisis,It also tell us supervision system is not sound/Did not play a large role close relationship.

　　“影子银行最大的风险就是中国的银行。”中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军在接受时代周报采访时不无忧虑地说，地方的金融机构比如担保公司、信托公司等拿着自己的资金进入到高利贷里面去了。“我们应该按照市场经济的规则，来规范和引导这些借贷活动。”

"Shadow Banks' biggest risk is China's Banks."Chinese people's university finance, vice President of the college in zhao xijun accept times weekly interview not anxiously said,Local financial institutions such as guarantee company/The trust company with their own money into the usury inside."We should, in accordance with the rules of market economy,To regulate and guide the lending activities."

　　温州金改成为影子银行的改革样本。周德文表示，现在温州金改，已经让民间借贷从地下走上地面，像温州借贷服务中心，所有的地下钱庄，包括所谓的影子银行金融体系都可以合法地到这个中心登记备案。利率化改革是中国金融改革的一个方向，是必须要做的，利率市场化也是更有利于那些影子银行浮出水面。

Wenzhou gold to become the shadow banking reform sample.ZhouDeWen said,Now wenzhou gold change,Have been let folk loan from underground to the ground,Like wenzhou lending service center,All of the underground,Including the so-called shadow banking financial system can legally to the center register put on record.Interest rate changes of China's financial reform is a direction,Must want to do,Interest rate marketization is more conducive to the shadow Banks surface.

　　香港大学中国金融研究中心主任宋敏对此深表赞同。“推动利率市场化正当其时。”他对时代周报称，利率管制是造成目前经济中投资浪费及中小微企业融资难的一个重要原因。加快金融改革、推动利率市场化在目前来说应是较好的时机。

The university of Hong Kong, director of the center for the research of Chinese finance SongMin this very much agree with."Promote the frontlines and interest rate marketization."He says times weekly,Rate control is caused by the present economic investment waste and small and medium-sized micro enterprise financing difficult an important reason.Speed up financial reform/Promote the interest rate marketization in present, should be a good opportunity.

　　

影子银行凶猛 Shadow Banks fierce

　　“沈联涛估算的2010年存量20万亿影子银行贷款，目前来看只能大于这个数。”广东省社科院开放经济研究所副所长任志宏对时代周报明确表示。

"ShenLian out estimated 2010 stock 20 trillion shadow bank loans,So far only is greater than the number."Guangdong academy of open economy RenZhiHong deputy director of the institute of times weekly made clear.

　　印证影子银行庞大信贷需求的数据俯拾皆是—今年前8个月信托贷款累计增加4933亿元，是去年同期的4.65倍；去年银行委托贷款新增超过万亿元，达12962亿元，是2002年的74倍。

Confirm the shadow Banks huge credit demand data can be found everywhere in the first eight months of this year - trust loans accumulated an increase of 493.3 billion yuan,Is 4.65 times that of the same period last year;Last year the bank entrusted loans increased more than one trillion yuan,Up to 1.2962 trillion yuan,Is 2002 times.

　　在影子银行快速扩张之下，有多种形态的影子银行贷款已达到数万亿的存量规模。截至今年6月末，信托总规模已达到5.5万亿元。

In shadow Banks under rapid expansion,There are many forms of shadow bank loans has reached multibillion stock scale.By the end of June this year,Trust the total scale has reached 5.5 trillion yuan.

　　影子银行在去年进入爆发期。为调控通胀预期，央行2011年逐步收紧市场流动性。

Shadow Banks in the last outbreak period.To control inflation expectations,The central bank in 2011 gradually tightening market liquidity.

　　“银根收紧后，企业融资从原来的银行体系大幅转向民间借贷市场，担保公司、典当行、小额贷款公司的业务飞速增长。”赵锡军对时代周报分析称，这就给那些拥有过多储蓄的个人提供了一个契机，在实际存款利率为负值之际，这些人无意把钱存入银行，而是投入到非正规渠道，借给那些资金拮据的私营企业，每年收取20%-30%的利息差。

"Tightening monetary policy after,Enterprise financing from the bank system greatly to private lending market,Guarantee company/pawnshop/Small loan company's business growth."To zhao xijun times weekly analysis says,It is to those who have too much personal savings provides an opportunity,In the actual deposit rate for the negative,These people intention of putting money in the bank,But in the informal channels,Lend the money uptight private enterprise,For every year 20% - 30% of the LiXiCha.

　　与此同时，银行间的资金也存在流向民间借贷市场的现象。不仅国有企业和大型民营企业，甚至连治理结构甚严的上市公司，也进行民间借贷业务。这些大型企业以及上市公司的一个简单操作链条，就是从银行搬运贷款资金，再到民间放贷，从中赚取丰厚息差。

meanwhile,Inter-bank funds are also flow folk lending market phenomenon.Not only state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises,Even very strict governance structure of listed companies,Also for folk lending business.These large enterprises and listed company a simple operation chain,Is from the bank handling loan funds,To folk lending,Make a rich spreads.

　　周德文说：“国企左手倒右手，用在银行贷款的钱转向贷给中小企业来赚取中间的高额利息差，这种现象造成的后果是非常可怕的，这其实也是一种权力"寻租"。这最终会损害了大量的民营企业，这也是所谓的权钱交易。”

Messina said:"The left hand down the right hand,Used in bank lending money to loans to small and medium-sized enterprise to earn the middle of the high LiXiCha,The consequences of this kind of phenomenon is very terrible,It is also a kind of power"rent-seeking".This will eventually damage a large number of private enterprises,This is the so-called trading."

　　纵观历史，影子银行的繁荣，往往伴随着主流银行信贷体系发展的滞胀。

Throughout history,The prosperity of the shadow Banks,Often accompanied by mainstream bank credit system development of stagflation.

　　两者的关系如同跷跷板，这一轮影子银行的迅猛发展，正是以传统银行业出现严重的信贷规模萎缩为前提的，其背景，则是中国长期利率管制和短期货币紧缩政策的双重效应叠加。

The relationship between the two as a seesaw,This round of the rapid development of shadow Banks,It is based on the traditional banking appear serious credit scale atrophy of the premise,The background,Is China's long-term interest rate control and short-term monetary deflation policy of double effect overlay.

　　中金公司在2011年9月末发布的《中国民间借贷分析》研究报告中则指出，中国民间借贷余额在2011年中期同比增长38%至3.8万亿元，占中国“影子银行”体系总规模的33%，相当于银行总贷款的7%。

Cicc in September 2011 by the end of the month[China folk lending analysis]The report noted,China folk loan balance in the middle of 2011 year-on-year growth of 38% to 3.8 trillion yuan,Of China's"Shadow Banks"33% of the total scale system,Equivalent to 7% of the total bank loans.

　　“我们跟国外最大的区别就是其银行体系非常健全，但是中国没有。”周德文说，我们国家的银行金融机构实质上是为大型企业服务的，但是中小企业服务的金融体系严重缺失，这就导致中小企业被迫转向民间借贷，这也就刺激了影子银行迅速地发展壮大。

"We with foreign is the biggest difference its banking system is very perfect,But China has not."Messina said,Our country's banking financial institutions is essentially for large enterprise service,But the small and medium-sized enterprise service financial system serious loss,This leads to small and medium-sized enterprise being forced to turn to the folk loan,This will stimulate the shadow Banks quickly development and expansion.

　　据中国央行公布的数据，2011年末委托贷款的余额已达到4.96万亿元，再加上今年前8个月累计新增约7154亿元，今年8月末委托贷款余额已达到5.68万亿元之巨。今年上半年小额贷款公司新增近千家，6月末贷款余额达4893亿元，相当于2010年末贷款余额的2.5倍。

According to China's central bank published data,By the end of 2011 entrust loan balance has reached 4.96 trillion yuan,Plus the first eight months accumulated new about 715.4 billion yuan,At the end of this year in August entrust loan balance has reached 5.68 trillion yuan of the giant.In the first half of this year small loan companies new nearly thousand,At the end of the outstanding balance of the loans of 489.3 billion yuan,Equivalent to the end of 2010 loan balance of 2.5 times.

　　“影子银行是我们现有体制弊端造成的，但顺应了市场的发展需求，是一种合理且必须存在的客观现象。”周德文说，影子银行跟银行所承担的风险是没有区别的，这几年一直大声疾呼民间借贷要合法化。

"Shadow Banks is our existing system caused by defects,But complied with the development of the market demand,Is a kind of reasonable and objective phenomenon must exist."Messina said,Shadow Banks and bank's risk is no different,Over the past few years have been outcry folk lending to legalization.

　　“去年我替国家起草了民间借贷法的草案，全国人大也立案了，希望让民间借贷特别是影子银行变成合法的银行，从灰色地带走出来，走到阳光下。”

"Last year I drew up for national folk lending the draft law,The National People's Congress is the case,Hope to make private lending especially shadow Banks into legal bank,From the grey taken out,Going into the sun."

　　影子银行的中国式危局，同样是国际金融危机的折射。IMF10月10日公布的报告指出，正如金融危机所揭示的，影子银行体系会增加系统性风险和监管套利。根据金融稳定理事会（FSB）于2011年发布的一项数据，在全球主要发达经济体内，影子银行的总资产于2010年底已达到约60万亿美元，占整个金融体系资产比例接近30%，相当于传统银行资产的60%。

The shadow of the crisis of Chinese bank,The same is the international financial crisis of refraction.IMF10 October, published the report says,As the financial crisis reveals,The shadow banking system will increase systemic risk and regulatory arbitrage.According to the financial stability board(FSB)Issued in 2011 a data,In the global main body developed economy,Shadow Banks at the end of 2010 the total assets have reached around $60 trillion,Accounting for the entire financial system assets proportion close to 30%,Traditional bank is equivalent to 60% of the assets.

　　“中国央行很难控制流动性，让银行按额度放贷。”里昂证券驻香港的郑名凯估计，银行仅占中国融资总额的一半。其余部分来自各种信托公司、金融公司、租赁公司和地下银行。它们要么受到的监管不如银行那么严格，要么受到互相冲突的监管机构的监管，要么根本不受监管。

"China's central bank is difficult to control liquidity,Let the bank on limit lending."Lyon in Hong Kong securities of zheng name kay estimation,Bank of China's only half of the total amount of financing.The rest from all kinds of trust company/Financial company/Leasing company and the underground bank.They either by supervision as bank so strict,Either by conflicting regulatory supervision,Or don't regulated.

　　赵锡军坦言，无论是民间高利贷，还是地下钱庄，都是根据市场规律逐步发展壮大的，这是市场博弈的结果。

Said zhao xijun,Whether folk usury,Or underground,All is according to the laws of the market development and expansion of the step by step,This is the result of the game market.

　　这些游离于监管之外的一切金融机构，都在客观上弥补了我国金融机构某些职能的缺失，弥补了市场发展的需求。

These free from outside supervision all the financial institutions,In China objectively make up for the lack of some functions of financial institutions,For the requirement of market development.

　　“影子银行是顺应市场发展需求的，是一种合理存在的客观现象，而且是有必要的。这是我们现有体质弊端造成的，但它顺应了市场经济发展的需要。”周德文说。

"Shadow bank is conform to the market development demand,Is a kind of reasonable existence objective phenomenon,And it is necessary.This is our current constitution caused by defects,But it complied with the need of the market economic development."Messina said.

　　

监管空白地带 Regulatory gap

　　影子银行的概念源自美国，因酿就2008年以来的全球金融危机而颇负盛名。而在中国，存有争议的影子银行长期处于监管的空白地带。

The concept of shadow Banks from the United States,Because is stuffed in 2008 since the global financial crisis, but the great.In China,Controversial in the long run, the shadow of the bank supervision gap.

　　影子银行体系的概念，由美国太平洋(601099,股吧)投资管理公司执行董事麦卡利首次提出，又称为平行银行系统。

The concept of shadow banking system,From the Pacific(601099,guba)Investment management company executive director Michael kari put forward for the first time,Also known as parallel bank system.

　　“实际来讲，境外的发达国家对影子银行也没有一个明确的定义。”

"In terms of actual,The overseas developed country to shadow Banks also have no a clear definition."

　　赵锡军说，麦考利提出的影子银行是指资本市场过度证券化了，通过一系列的金融衍生品来分散风险，但是这样的影子银行体系，显然在中国是不存在的。

Said zhao xijun,Macaulay proposed shadow Banks is refers to the capital market the excessive securitization,Through a series of financial derivatives to spread risk,But such a shadow banking system,Obviously in China is not exist.

　　在中国，对于影子银行尚无一个明确的公认定义。银监会曾在其2011年年报中，对影子银行进行了广义、狭义之分。

In China,For there is no shadow Banks a clear accepted definition.The CBRC was in its 2011 annual report in,The shadow on the bank of the generalized/Narrow the points.

　　所谓广义的影子银行是指，在传统银行体系之外涉及信用中介的活动和机构。狭义的则是可能引起系统性风险和监管套利的非银行信用中介机构。

The so-called generalized shadow refers to the bank,In the traditional banking system involved outside credit intermediary activities and institutions.Special is may cause systemic risk and regulatory arbitrage non-bank credit intermediary organizations.

　　在中行国际金融研究所研究员周景彤看来，中国版的影子银行主要体现在“银信合作”和地下钱庄等金融形式上。

In the bank of China international finance research institute researcher ZhouJingTong looks,Chinese version of the shadow Banks mainly manifests in the"Such cooperation"Underground Banks and financial form.

　　中银国际年初发布的一份研究报告则称，影子银行的具体表现形式与美国有较大区别，参与者可谓非常多元化，包括银行、信托、担保、小贷公司、典当行、地下钱庄等，最主要的形式则包括四种：银信合作理财、委托贷款、银行承兑汇票和民间借贷。

At the beginning of China international issued a research report has said,Shadow Banks of the specific form of expression and in the United States, there are great differences,Participants is very diversified,Including Banks/trust/guarantee/Small credit company/pawnshop/Underground Banks, etc,The main form, including four:Such financial cooperation/Entrust loan/Bank acceptance and folk loan.

　　中国的影子银行究竟在哪里？慢牛投资公司董事长张化桥告诉时代周报记者，中国最大的影子银行是信托投资公司以及银行的千奇百怪的理财产品，这是金融体系中最大的风险。“而小额贷款公司和民间借贷实在是小打小闹，不值得一提。”

The shadow of China where is the bank?Slow cattle investment company chairman zhang change bridge told reporters times weekly,China's largest shadow bank is the trust and investment companies and Banks of various financial products,This is the biggest risk in the financial system."And small loan companies and folk loan is really on small scale,Not worth mentioning."

　　近期，多家银行纷纷发力高收益理财产品，部分产品收益率已远超5%。业内人士透露，去年银行理财产品发行规模达16.5万亿元之巨。银行高收益理财产品已成为影子银行的一大体现，银行将通过理财产品获得的资金，通过购买银行间市场债券、投资信托受益权等形式，进行变相贷款，以弥补贷款规模不足。

recent,Many Banks have the force high yield financial products,Part of the product yield is over 5%.Industry insiders revealed,Last year bank financing products issue size of 16.5 trillion yuan of the giant.Bank high yield financial products has become a big shadow Banks reflects,The bank will through the financial products gain money,By purchasing interbank market bond/The beneficial right of the trust investment and other forms,For loans disguised,To make up for the lack of the size of the loan.

　　“在金融管制、资金垄断下，大型国企等能以低廉利率从银行获得大笔贷款，中小民企与政策限制型企业则普遍通过影子银行获得资金，形成金融双轨制。”银联信相关报告称。银行正规贷款渠道贷款利率在6%左右，而民间借贷利率往往超过20%。银信合作作为银行理财表外业务主要通道今年占比亦大幅提高。

"In the financial control/Funds under monopoly,Such as large state-owned enterprises at low interest rate loan from the bank receive a lot of,Small and medium-sized enterprises and policy restricted type enterprise generally through the shadow Banks receive money,Formation financial double track system."Unionpay letter related report says.Bank normal loan channel loan interest rate at 6%,While the folk loan interest rates tend to be more than 20%.Such cooperation as a bank financing off-balance sheet business main channel of this year than also increase.

　　广州某股份制银行一内部人士对时代周报记者透露，用理财产品资金“曲线”贷款，银行收入不菲，目前信托产品的收益率在8%-10%之间，最高可达12%。该内部人士以当前银行理财产品4%-5%的收益率计算，银行的利润空间最低亦可达4%，若加上管理费、销售费等，其回报至少在4.5%以上，远高于同期银行贷款的净息差水平。

Guangzhou a joint-stock bank a insiders to times weekly reporter revealed,Funds with financial products"curve"loan,Bank income does not poor,At present the trust product yields between 8% and 10%,The highest can amount to 12%.The insiders to current bank financing products 4% - 5% of the yield calculation,The bank profit space minimum can be up to 4%,If plus management fee/Sales fee, etc,Its returns at least in more than 4.5%,Far higher than the same period of the net bank loans carry level.

　　但在中信银行(601998,股吧)副行长曹彤看来，银行发的理财产品不应该算做影子银行范畴，“现在我们国家对银行的监管是非常严格的，每一笔理财产品都要报批或者报备银监会的，没有任何一笔是不报的。”

But in citic bank(601998,guba)Vice President CaoTong looks,Bank hair of financial products should not be a shadow Banks category,"Now our country to bank supervision is very strict,Each financial products to submit or approval of the CBRC,No pen is not quote."

　　赵锡军则强调说，不受监管的金融机构才叫影子银行，像典当行、担保公司和信托公司这类的金融机构其实不是影子银行，因为这是经过相关部门的批准是受到监管的。

Zhao xijun is stressed,Not regulated financial institution's shadow Banks,Like a pawnshop/Security companies and trust this kind of financial institutions is not shadow Banks,Because this is after the approval of relevant departments by the regulation.

　　赵锡军和曹彤观点一致。他对时代周报分析称，从法律上来讲，商业银行销售的理财产品，那些非银行机构提供的金融类产品，都是合法的，都是受到监管部门批准的，也都是可以统计出来的，因此这部分不能把它算作是影子银行。

Zhao xijun and CaoTong on the same wavelength.He says times weekly analysis,From the legal terms,Commercial bank financial products sales,The non-bank financial institutions to provide the products,Are legal,Are approved by the supervision department,Also can be calculated,So this part can not put it as is the shadow Banks.

　　任志宏对此则有不同看法，他认为，现在银监会对于那些担保公司和小额贷款公司、私募都有作出严格的规定，但即使这样还有很多业务都在监管体系之外的，虽说有监管但覆盖不到，就造成了空白点。“中国的金融监管始终是有空白点的，目前的金融体系还没有一个完善的法律法规去规范影子银行，因此很多非金融机构就会打法律上的一个擦边球。”

This RenZhiHong have different views,He thinks,Now the CBRC for those who guarantee company and small loan companies/Private equity has made strict rules,But even so there are a lot of business in the supervision system of the outside,Although have supervision but not covered,Creates a void."China's financial supervision is always have the blank,The current financial system is not a perfect laws and regulations to regulate shadow Banks,So many non-financial institutions will play legal a edge ball."

　　

警惕系统风险 Alert system risk

　　“中国影子银行的贷款可能占比较高，通过一切形式一切渠道向民间融资，建议金融监管过程中加强监督。”IMF金融顾问及货币与资本市场部主管比尼亚尔斯10月10日强调说。

"Chinese shadow the loan to the bank may account for is higher,Through all channels to all forms of folk financing,Suggestions of financial supervision in the process of strengthening supervision."IMF financial advisers and monetary and capital marketing director, California's than October 10 stressed.

　　影子银行的系统性风险，目前凸显在房地产领域—影子银行正在悄然填补银行从房地产贷款市场撤退后留下的真空。上市银行刚公布的半年报显示，多家银行房地产贷款余额罕见地出现下降情况。以建行为例，上半年，该行房地产开发类贷款余额为4178亿元，较上年末减少14亿元。

Shadow Banks systemic risk,At present highlight in real estate industry - shadow Banks are quietly fill bank from the real estate loan market retreat left after vacuum.Listed Banks just released semi-annual report shows,Many Banks real estate loan balance uncommonly decline situation.To the construction bank, for example,In the first half of,The bank real estate development class loan balance is 417.8 billion yuan,ShangNianMo a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan.

　　“在住房价格下降和经济增长放缓的背景下，影子银行本身所内在的风险确实很高。如果信托融资持续恶化，尤其是如果它是伴随着经济硬着陆和住房价格的深度调整，则金融风险必然会转向系统性。”北京大学中国宏观经济研究中心教授黄益平说。

"In housing prices fell and economic growth under the background of slowing,The shadow banking itself inherent risk really high.If the trust financing continued to worsen,Especially if it is accompanied by a hard landing of the economy and the housing price of the depth adjustment,The financial risk will turn to systemic."Beijing university Chinese macroeconomic research center HuangYiPing professor said.

　　中国影子银行给房地产行业源源不断输入资金的同时，房地产行业信用过度扩张隐含的风险越来越高，为此，不少业内人士担忧，中国式次债危机是否会爆发？周德文明确表示，“这有可能会成为中国式的金融危机，我们要警惕民间借贷危机向金融机构蔓延。”

Chinese shadow Banks to real estate industry continuously input funds at the same time,The real estate industry credit excessive expansion of the hidden risk is more and more high,therefore,Many insiders worry,Chinese subprime mortgage crisis will outbreak?ZhouDeWen made clear,"This may be the Chinese financial crisis,We must keep an eye out for folk loan crisis spread to financial institutions."

　　“中国的影子银行是否会成为另一个次债，我觉得不太可能。”赵锡军分析，限购也好，银根缩紧也好，实际上就是一个控制风险的过程。当然这里面还有信托公司提供的贷款，但是这部分贷款也是受到监管的，并不算作影子银行体系内。

"China's shadow Banks will be another time debt,I think is unlikely."Zhao xijun analysis,Restricted or,Money shrink on all right,In fact is a control of risk.Of course there is also trust company to provide loans,But this part of the loan is also being supervision,Don't count the shadow banking system inside.

　　不过任志宏对此存有异议，他认为，房地产泡沫很大一部分原因跟中国影子银行金融体系有关，银根缩紧加上限购，导致很多房地产商资金短缺，为了能够周转资金，大量来源于影子银行的资金便流入到房地产行业，这也就是为什么房价迟迟降不下来的原因，国家对房地产的调控效果也不明显。

But RenZhiHong objection to entities,He thinks,A large part of the reason for real estate bubble with Chinese shadow Banks on the financial system,Tighten monetary policy and restricted,Lead to a lot of real estate business fund shortage,In order to be able to circulating capital,A large number of from the shadow Banks and funds to flow to the real estate industry,This also is why prices can drop down the reason,The state of the real estate regulation effect is not obvious.

　　“现在中国经济处于一种胶着状态，所以影子银行应该引起监管层足够的重视。”任志宏担忧的是，到目前为止，我们无法明确地掌握有多少民间融资需求无法在正规银行体系内得到满足，但是从近几年的小额贷款公司，担保公司的数量急剧增加，外加上各类银行的巧立名目的理财产品，都可以看出极尽扭曲的融资结构带来的巨大利润空间，正在搅动着中国金融体系的安全。

"Now China's economy is in a kind of conglutination state,So the shadow Banks should cause enough attention supervision layer."RenZhiHong concern is,So far,We can't clearly grasp how many folk financing needs not in normal bank within the system satisfy,But in recent years from the small loan companies,The number of guarantee company has increased dramatically,External plus all kinds of bank financing products to ring the changes on,Can see extremely use up distorted financing structure brings the enormous profit space,Is stirring the Chinese financial system security.

　　周德文则更为关注温州金改的样本分析，“目前影子银行是监管缺失的，地方金融机构要健全起来，然后再来加强监管。”他表示，对民间借贷的利息要有监测，设立大量的监测点，超过一定的风险，政府要出面来干预，日本的民间借贷法律是很齐全的，但他们对高利贷的打击比我们还厉害，值得借鉴。

ZhouDeWen is more attention to wenzhou gold change of sample analysis,"At present the shadow bank is the lack of supervision,Local financial institutions should perfect rise,And then to strengthen supervision."He said,The folk loan interest to have monitoring,Set up a large number of monitoring point,More than a certain risk,The government should appear to intervention,Japan's private lending law is very complete,But they blow to usury than we are bad,Is worth reference for.

　　对此，监管机构也表现出高度重视。前任银监会主席刘明康在今年工作会议上多次提出，对银信合作等“影子银行”业务要果断予以规范。在防控风险上，要严格按时间表做好银信合作表外转表内的工作。日前，央行加快推进金融综合统计，对阵影子银行。

this,Regulators also show attaches great importance to.The former chairman of China's banking mingkang in this year work conference proposed many times,For such cooperation, etc"Shadow Banks"Business make a standard to be decisive.In the prevention and control risks,To strictly according to schedule do such cooperation table outward turning table of the work.a,The central bank accelerate financial comprehensive statistics,Against shadow Banks.

　　“影子银行为何如此猖獗？原因就在于利率管制。”张化桥一语中的。宋敏亦强调说“中国利率改革正当其时”，他表示，国家“十二五”规划再次强调了转变经济发展模式的重要性。长期的利差保护造成银行缺乏对较高风险贷款的定价能力。近期随国家货币政策的调整，通胀有所下降，实质利率逐步上升。

"Shadow Banks why so rampant?Reason lies in the control of interest rate."Zhang change bridge accumulate funds.SongMin also stressed"China in its interest rate reform",He said,countries"1025"Planning once again stressed the importance of the transformation of the economic development mode.Long-term spread caused by the lack of protection of the bank to higher risk of loan pricing power.With the recent national monetary policy adjustment,Inflation fell,Real interest rate to rise gradually.

　　周德文也表示，利率再不进行市场化，那么我们现在所有的金融改革可能都要前功尽弃了。现在高层多次强调，目前利率市场化的条件已经具备，加上民间我们的积极争取，来一个彻底的金融改革，而不是现在的修修补补。

ZhouDeWen also said,Interest rate marketization don't in,Then we now all the financial reform may want to go down the drain the.Now top has emphasized many times that,At present interest rate marketization condition has,Add folk our actively,Come to a complete financial reform,But not now of tinkering.

　　“影子银行的悬河需要疏导。”多位接受时代周报采访的专家呼吁，当前要把资金资源配置到国民经济最需要的地方，在促进货币经济与实体经济的良性循环的同时，从源头上防范信贷资金被挪用，让资金切实进入实体经济。

"Shadow Banks hanging river need counseling."Many accept times weekly interview of experts called for,At present, it is necessary to put the capital allocation of resources to the national economy places where they are needed most,In promoting monetary economy and real economy benign circulation at the same time,From the source to prevent credit funds be appropriated,Make money and into the real economy.