何志成（经济学家）

HeZhiCheng(economists)

　　最近，在一档电视节目中，与专家们谈论美国QE3对全球经济的影响时，笔者认为，如果说QE1是救市（将濒临崩盘的大宗商品市场从悬崖边拉回来）；QE2就是造势 （将大宗商品市场再一次推向高峰）；QE3就是托市。

recently,On a television program,And experts talk about the United States QE3 when impact on the global economy,The author thinks that,If QE1 is to rescue the city(Will be on the verge of collapse commodity market pull back from the edge of the cliff);QE2 is ascribed (The commodity market once again to the peak);QE3 is UK.

　　对“托市”一词，很多人不理解，认为美联储没有必要托市。而笔者一直担心，在欧债危机没完没了的背景下，在包括中国在内的新兴市场国家经济都出现退潮的背景下，大宗商品市场有没有可能再来一次大退潮？而在大宗商品市场退潮后，受巨大损失的又会是谁呢？

to"UK"A word,Many people do not understand,Think the fed there is no need to UK.And the author has been worried about,In the debt crisis endless background,In emerging markets, including China, national economy are appear under the background of ebb tide,Commodity markets could once again big ebb tide?And in commodity markets after the ebb,By huge losses and who would it be?

　　笔者在研究国际三大铁矿石巨头的股权结构后，发现高盛和摩根士丹利等国际金融巨鳄占有的股权均超过60%；在国际原油市场，无论是从事勘探还是交易，绝大多数公司的控股权都被美国金融巨鳄完全控制；国际金融巨鳄持仓较多的还有欧债，由于持仓量过大，也是很难退出。很显然，如果国际大宗商品市场暴跌，欧债暴跌，受损失最大的一定是美国的金融巨鳄。因此，“托市”是有背景的，是符合美国利益尤其是符合美国金融巨鳄利益的。

The author in the study of the international three big iron ore giant after equity structure,Found that Goldman sachs and Morgan Stanley and other international financial giant crocodile of equity by more than 60%;In the international crude oil market,Whether it is engaged in exploration or trade,The vast majority of the company's controlling interest are the United States financial croc complete control;The international financial giant crocodile position more and the debt,Due to the large amount of position,Is also difficult to quit.obviously,If the international commodities market slump,The debt slump,Lose the biggest must be America's financial giant crocodile.therefore,"UK"Is the background of the,Is accord with the United States in the U.S. interests, especially the interests of the financial giant crocodile.

　　美联储的股权虽然没有被国际金融巨鳄控制，但其中有不少人与国际金融巨鳄存在千丝万缕的联系。按此推理，QE3与托市有很大关系，美联储通过宣布未来将无限制地购买国债，其用心就是带动全球主要央行都走向超宽松，货币宽松，国际大宗商品市场价格就能够维持在相对高位，美国的金融巨鳄就能获利，货币超宽松，美元就会长期走弱，欧元就能维持在“次高位”，甚至高位，美国的金融巨鳄就能悄悄地撤退。

The fed's equity though not international financial giant crocodile control,But there are a lot of people and the international financial giant crocodile exist countless ties.According to this reasoning,There is a great relationship between QE3 and UK,The fed through the announced that the future will unrestrainedly to buy Treasury bonds,The heart is one of the world's major central Banks have to drive the super loose,Loose monetary,International bulk commodity market price will be able to maintain in relatively high,The United States financial giant crocodile can profit,Super loose monetary,A weaker dollar will be long,The euro can maintain in"Time high",Even high,The United States financial giant crocodile can quietly retreat.

　　如果这个预期被市场相信，加上新兴市场经济国家央行被“忽悠”或者被“倒逼”不得不跟进放松货币政策，必然进一步加剧全球货币市场增大宽松预期，这个预期将是掩护国际金融巨鳄撤退的最佳烟雾弹。实际上，国际金融巨鳄并不看好大宗商品市场，不看好欧债市场，但他们要撤退，谁来接盘？这就是QE3的作用。谁相信QE3，谁就会买大宗商品、买原油、买欧债。现在看，相信的人不少，因此，未来的结果一定是，国际金融巨鳄跑了，而全球投资者尤其是新兴市场经济国家的投资者，将被套在高位。

If the expected by the market believe that,Plus emerging market economic countries by the central bank"flicker"Or be"DaoBi"Have to follow up to relax monetary policy,Will further aggravate global monetary market is expected to increase loose,This is expected to cover the international financial giant crocodile retreat best smoke bomb.In fact,The international financial giant crocodile do not look good commodity markets,Do not expect the debt market,But they want to retreat,Who will flange?This is QE3 role.Who believe QE3,Who would buy commodity/Buy crude oil/Buy European debt.Now look at,Believe that the person many,therefore,The future of results must be,The international financial giant crocodile ran,And global investors, especially in emerging market economies investors,Will quilt cover in high.

　　笔者现在的观点是，对大宗商品市场近期的反弹不能追，对欧元更不能再抱幻想，欧元兑美元现在仍然徘徊在1：1.30左右，这正是美联储和欧洲央行共同“托市”的结果。国际金融巨鳄希望欧元兑美元能够反弹到1：1.30，因此我们在这个点位上做空或者止损最好。现在许多分析师还认为，如果本月西班牙能够主动申请援助，欧债危机将大大趋缓，欧元兑美元可能有更大的上涨空间，比如在站稳1：1.30后，会再升至1：1.33。而笔者的看法恰恰相反，首先笔者绝对不相信欧洲央行有那么多钱，它也无法筹集这么多钱，即使有2000亿欧元，很快也会用完，如果它真的开始买西班牙债券，该国国债一定会遭遇卖盘，意大利国债的卖盘则会更凶 （因为欧洲央行不买），两国国债收益率都会很快回升至7%以上。因为市场一定会发现：欧洲央行的钱很快就没有了，如果靠印钞票，欧元将暴跌。

The author's point of view is now,For commodity markets recent rebound can't chase,The euro more can't illusions,The euro against the dollar is still hovering in 1:1.30 or so,This is what the federal reserve and the European central bank common"UK"results.The international financial giant crocodile hope the euro against the dollar could rebound to 1:1.30,So we at this point on empty or stop the best.Now many analysts also believe that,If this month Spain can active application aid,The debt crisis will greatly slowed,The euro against the dollar could have more rise space,For example, in stand 1:After 1.30,Will further to 1:1.33.And the author's view on the contrary,First of all the author absolute don't believe that the European central bank has so much money,It also can't raise so much money,Even if a 200 billion euro,Soon will run out,If it really started to buy Spanish bonds,The country's national debt will encounter selling,Italian national debt of selling will be more fierce (Because the European central bank do not buy),The two countries bond yields will soon picked up to more than 7%.Because the market must be found:The European central bank money soon have no,If, by printing money,Euro will crash.

　　关键点在，欧洲央行的购债举动很难带动全球买家一起买，结果很可能相反,欧债央行在买，几个国家的央行在小心翼翼地跟进，国际金融巨鳄却在大举出货，那些曾经为欧洲央行购债决定喝彩、一个劲地鼓动美联储推出QE3的国际金融巨鳄，将再次成功地上演“胜利大逃亡”。

Key points in,The European central bank debt purchase behavior is difficult to drive the global buyers buy together,The result is very possible instead,European central bank debt in to buy,Several countries in central bank carefully follow up,The international financial giant crocodile was massive shipment,Those who once for the European central bank purchase debt decided to applaud/1 vigorously agitated the fed QE3 launched the international financial giant crocodile,Will again put on successfully"Escape from victory".

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