——我国资本市场上半年运行情况分析与展望

In the first half, China's capital market operation analysis and prospect

　　本文对上半年资本市场运行状况进行了分析，总结了运行过程中的七个主要特点，同时对形成这种运行特点和格局的原因，从金融政策、宏观经济运行和海外市场三个方面进行了分析，并对下半年资本市场的走势作了简单展望。

In this paper, the capital market in the first half of the operation condition are analyzed,Summarizes the operation process of the seven main characteristics,At the same time to form this kind of operation characteristics and the cause of the pattern,From the financial policy/Operation of macro economy and the overseas market three aspects are analyzed,And the capital market in the second half of the trend of simple prospects.

　　沪深两市上半年总体表现为小幅上涨，上证综指和深证综指分别上涨1.18%和6.32%。截至6月30日，我国共有上市公司2444家，较2011年底增长4.36%。上半年共有102家公司发行股票，实际募集资金共688亿元，比去年同期减少54.52%。债券发行35553.31亿元，环比下降4.53%。基金资产净值24437.64亿元，环比增长12.74%。上半年，股票总市值22.62万亿元，流通市值17.31万亿元，比去年年末分别增长5.33%和4.96%。沪深两市成交活跃，其中，股票累计成交金额173751.93亿元，环比增长0.13%。基金累计成交金额12252亿元，同比下降1.25%。债券累计成交金额333447.4亿元，同比增长9.11%。期货市场累计成交量为493877098手，累计成交额为681992.55亿元，同比分别增长0.38%和1.82%。

Shanghai and shenzhen in the first half of the two cities overall performance for a more modest,The Shanghai composite index and shenzhen stock exchange composite index up 1.18% and 6.32% respectively.As of June 30,Listed companies in China in 2444,A growth of 4.36% by the end of 2011.In the first half of 102 companies issue of shares,The actual raising money 68.8 billion yuan,54.52% lower than the same period last year.Issue 3.555331 trillion yuan,Link fell by 4.53%.Fund net worth 2.443764 trillion yuan,Link growth of 12.74%.In the first half of,Stock total market value 22.62 trillion yuan,Circulation market value 17.31 trillion yuan,Than the end of last year increased by 5.33% and 4.96% respectively.Shanghai and shenzhen two city clinch a deal the active,the,The stock cumulative clinch a deal amount is 17.375193 trillion yuan,Link growth of 0.13%.Funds accumulated clinch a deal amount is 1.2252 trillion yuan,1.25% year-on-year drop.Bond accumulated clinch a deal amount is 33.34474 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 9.11%.Futures market cumulative volume for 493877098 hand,Total volume of business for 68.199255 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 0.38%, respectively, and 1.82%.

　上半年资本市场运行特点 In the first half of the capital market operation characteristics

　　在稳增长与调结构和资本市场政策的共同作用下，2012年上半年A股市场表现出以下七大特点（也是市场七大“痛”点）：

In the steady growth and adjustable structure and capital market under the common function of policy,In the first half of 2012 A share market shows the following seven characteristics(The market is seven"pain"point):

　　第一，股指呈双峰形态，整体低位震荡运行。从股指的周期波动性来看，经历了前两个较短的周期后，本轮底部开始于2012年1月初的2148点。股指整体低位震荡运行，走出了两个短暂的上升行情，在形成较为对称的M形双峰形态后，于6月28日再次下探到2195的低点，并在上半年最后一个交易日略微收高。沪指整体上涨1.18%。

The first,Stock index is bimodal form,The overall shakeouts operation.From the cycle of stock index volatility to see,After undergoing the first two short cycle,This bottom began in 2012 early January 2148 points.Stock index whole shakeouts operation,Out of the two short rising market,In the form relatively symmetric M form bimodal after form,On June 28, again dip below 2195 low,And in the first half of the last trading day up slightly.The whole boomed rose 1.18%.

　　第二，市场宽幅波动，平均波动率在降低。从股市波动性来看，今年上半年股市是在宽幅的区间波动，但是波动幅度比去年减小。上半年股市运行比较平稳，波动较大的交易日集中在第一季度，上半年每日振幅的均值和整体振幅要分别小于去年上半年和下半年的水平。

The second,Market wide fluctuations,Average volatility in reducing.From the stock market volatility to see,In the first half of this year the stock market is in wide range fluctuation,But the fluctuation amplitude decrease than last year.In the first half of the stock market run smoothly,Large fluctuations of the trading day concentrated in the first quarter,In the first half of the average daily amplitude and integral amplitude respectively to less than in the first half of last year and the second level.

　　第三，市盈率创历史新低，换手率触及历史底部。上证综指估值的历史高点在2007年中旬，达到将近50倍的水平，历史低点位于2008年末，约为12倍，而今年上半年月度市盈率的均值为11.3倍，创历史新低。今年上半年上证综指累计换手率为178.58%，已经接近历史底部。

The third,P/e ratio record lows,Turnover rate touched bottom history.The Shanghai composite index valuation of the historical high in the middle of 2007,To achieve the level of nearly 50 times,Historical lows in the end of 2008,About 12 times,And in the first half of this year the average monthly p/e ratio is 11.3 times,Record lows.In the first half of this year the Shanghai composite index accumulated turnover rate is 178.58%,History has been close to the bottom.

　　第四，限售股持续解禁，高管股东增持与减持分化。上半年上市高管和主要股东整体表现为净减持，净减持金额共245.4亿元，制造业减持146亿元，是减持规模最大的板块。导致上半年市场净减持的原因，一方面与大小非解禁相关；另一方面，前期偏紧的货币政策和政府的调控亦是重要原因，金融行业和房地产行业纷纷通过减持以补充公司流动性，减持金额分别为30.1亿元和30.6亿元。

The fourth,Limited sales stocks maintained lift the ban,Executives shareholders increasing and to reduce their holdings of differentiation.Listed in the first half of the executives and major shareholders to reduce the net overall performance,Net minus the amount a total of $24.54 billion,Manufacturing to reduce their holdings of 14.6 billion yuan,Is to reduce their holdings of the largest plate.In the first half of the market to the net to reduce their holdings of reason,On the one hand and size not related to lift the ban;On the other hand,The partial tight monetary policy and government regulation is also an important reason,The financial industry and the real estate industry through a reduction in succession to supplement the company liquidity,Reduce the amount of 3.01 billion yuan and 3.06 billion yuan respectively.

　　第五，行业板块分化明显，资金普遍外流。上半年行业板块分化明显，23个申万一级行业中，20个行业指数上涨，其中房地产和有色金属指数上涨幅度最大，均超过了20%，采掘、黑色金属和信息服务3个行业的指数下跌。板块间的分化十分明显。今年上半年各行业板块都出现了资金流出情况，其中制造业的资金流出最多，超过2000亿元。

The fifth,Industry plate differentiation obvious,Capital outflow of common.In the first half of the industry plate differentiation obvious,23 "all level of the industry,20 industry index rose,The real estate and non-ferrous metals index rose the largest amount,Are more than 20%,mining/Black metal and information services three industry index fell.The differentiation between plate is very obvious.In the first half of this year industries plate has capital outflow situation,The manufacturing of most fund outflow,More than 200 billion yuan.

　　第六，新股发行“三高”有所缓解，破发率结构性上升。上半年新股发行价格、市盈率、首日换手率和振幅都小于2011年，新股“三高”问题有所缓解。与此同时，首日破发率提高，其中主板的破发率最高，但较去年有所降低。创业板的破发率有所下降，中小板的破发率比去年提高，而且已经接近主板的破发率水平。

The sixth,ipo"Three tenors"To ease,Structural break rate rise.In the first half of the issuing price of the new/P/e ratio/The first turnover rate and amplitude are less than 2011 years,New shares"Three tenors"Problems to ease.meanwhile,Improve the rate of the first break,The main board of break the highest rate,But last year is reduced.The gem break rate declined,Small and medium-sized plate of the break rate higher than last year,And is close to the mainboard break rate level.

　　第七，股票有效账户数减少，各地区首发融资表现不同。截至6月30日，股票账户数为1.69亿户，比去年年末增加了1.87%，有效账户数为1.38亿户，比去年年末减少了1.6%，休眠账户数为3030.83万户，比去年年末增加了21.4%。投资者新增股票账户数为332.42万户，较去年下半年减少了29.4%。上半年，15个地区的首发融资高于去年下半年，11个地区的首发融资低于去年下半年，内蒙古、黑龙江、海南、宁夏和云南连续一年内未发生首发融资。

The seventh,Stock effective account number reduce,Each region starting performance different financing.As of June 30,Stock account number for 169 million households,Than the end of last year increased by 1.87%,Effective account number for 138 million households,Than the end of last year to reduce by 1.6%,Dormancy account number for 30.3083 million households,Than the end of last year increased by 21.4%.New investors stock account number for 3.3242 million households,More in the second half of last year to reduce by 29.4%.In the first half of,15 areas starting financing higher than the second half of last year,11 in the second half of last year starting financing below,Inner Mongolia/heilongjiang/hainan/Ningxia and yunnan continuous a year starting financing has not occurred.

　　三大宏观因素导致A股M形走势 Three macroscopic factors lead to a-share M shape trend

　　上半年A 股走势呈M形，导致这种格局的原因主要有三方面：一是受经济金融政策的影响；二是宏观经济形势的作用；三是外围经济的冲击。

In the first half of a-shares is M form,Cause the cause of this kind of pattern mainly has three aspects:A is affected by economic and financial policy influence;The second is the role of the macro economic situation;Three is the peripheral economic impact.

　　第一，政策利好提升投资者预期。上半年，国务院与各部委政策密集出台。各部委共发布22 个“新36 条”实施细则，基本实现早先的预定目标，这标志着我国打破重点领域垄断格局正式进入了实质性的进展阶段。同时，上半年也是金融领域加强宏观调控和改革的重点时期，在货币政策方面，中国人民银行两次调低准备金率、两次调低存贷款利率，增加了市场流动性，对股市也产生了积极的推动作用。就资本市场而言，为完善新股价格形成机制，证监会于3月发布《关于进一步深化新股发行体制改革的指导意见》（以下简称《指导意见》）征求意见稿，并在4月正式公布。截止到6月底，《指导意见》颁布前后的首日破发比例由23%提高到34%，盲目炒新现象得到遏制。除此之外，退市制度，降低证券、期货交易手续费，推进证券公司创新，增强机构投资者建设，中小企业私募债试点发行等改革措施密集推出，资本市场环境得以不断改善。

The first,Policy good ascension investors expected.In the first half of,The state council and its ministries and commissions on intensive policy.Ministries issued a total of 22"Article 36 new"Detailed rules for the implementation of the,Basic realization earlier intended target,This marks a break in our country key fields monopoly pattern has formally entered the stage of substantial progress.At the same time,In the first half of the financial sector is to strengthen macroeconomic control and the key to the reform of period,In the monetary policy,The people's bank of China two lower reserve ratio/Two lower loan interest rates,Increased the market liquidity,The market also generates a positive role.The capital market is concerned,To improve the price formation mechanism of new shares,Securities regulatory commission released in March[On further deepening the reform of the system of new shares issued guidance](Hereinafter referred to as[Guiding opinions])draft,And in the April officially announced.By the end of June,[Guiding opinions]Before and after the first issued by the proportion of break increased from 23% to 34%,Blind Fried new phenomenon be contained.In addition,Delisted system,Reduce securities/Futures trading commission,Promote innovative securities companies,Strengthen the construction of institutional investors,Small and medium-sized enterprise SiMuZhai pilot issue reform measures such as intensive launch,Capital market environment to improve.

　　年初至今，A股有两轮幅度较大的行情，都与宏观政策密切相关。两会之前，投资者预期宏观政策将会微调，悲观心理得以缓解，投资热情开始增长。上证指数于1 月6 日下行至2132 点（半年内低点）后有力反弹，于3月2 日上行至半年内最高点2460点，上涨15.38%。3月底，温州金融改革正式颁布。4月，深圳前海改革积极推进。证券、期货交易手续费下调，新股发行体制改革，在利好政策的鼓舞下，投资者重拾信心，上证综指一直上涨到5月4日的2452点，较3月底的低点上涨8.88%。

year-to-date,A shares with two wheels of the market to A larger extent,Are closely related with the macroscopic policy.Before two,Investors expected macroscopic policy will be fine,Pessimistic psychological ease,Investment enthusiasm began to growth.The Shanghai index on jan. 6 (step to 2132 points(Half year low)Strong rebound after,On March 2, to half a year on high 2460 points,Rose 15.38%.By the end of march,Wenzhou financial reform formally promulgated.April,Shenzhen sea before reform actively promote.securities/Futures trading commission cut,The reform of the system of new shares issued,Good policy in inspiring,Investor confidence,The Shanghai composite index has been up to May 4, 2452 points,By the end of march is the low rise 8.88%.

　　第二，宏观经济下行调低投资者预期。上半年国内生产总值（GDP）为22.71万亿元，同比增长7.8%，第二季度GDP增速创13个月新低。本轮经济下滑周期是从2010年第二季度开始，GDP增速从2010年底第一季度的11.9%降至2012年第二季度的7.6%。其中，2010年下半年至2011年上半年的四个季度内，经济增速较为稳定，保持在9.5%以上。进入2011年下半年后，经济增速进入一个逐步放缓的阶段，并在2012年上半年继续下滑。

The second,Macroeconomic descending down investors expected.In the first half of the gross domestic product(GDP)For 22.71 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 7.8%,The second quarter GDP growth and low 13 months.This economic downturn cycle from the second quarter of 2010, start,From the end of 2010 GDP growth in the first quarter of 11.9% to 7.6% of the second quarter of 2012.the,The second half of 2010 to the first half of 2011 in four quarters,Economic growth is relatively stable,To stay above 9.5%.In the second half of 2011 after,Economic growth into a gradually slow stage,And in the first half of 2012 continue to slide.

　　从2011年初至2012年6月，上证综指和工业增加值同比增速的走势比较接近。今年3月份，工业增加值增速下行，GDP增速也有所放缓，数据显示，经济运行情况不达投资者预期，投资者心态开始转为谨慎，这种情况导致股市进入较深幅度的调整，上证综指调整至3月29日的2252点，较3月初的高点下跌208点，跌幅8.46%。5月初公布的4月份宏观数据显示第一季度经济增长并未见底，第二季度很可能继续维持下行。对宏观经济的悲观预期，使得5月之后股市一直呈震荡下行态势。

From early 2011 to June 2012,The Shanghai composite index and the industrial added value year-on-year growth trend close to.In march this year,Industrial added value growth down,GDP growth is slowing,Data display,The situation of economic operation does not reach investors expected,Investors began to cautious attitude,This situation led to the stock market into deep amplitude adjustment,The Shanghai composite index adjustment to March 29 2252 points,Is early march high fell 208 points,Fall 8.46%.Early may in April released by the macro data showed that the first quarter economic growth did not see the bottom,The second quarter is likely to continue downward.And the macro economic pessimistic expectations,Make 5 month after the stock market has been a shock descending trend.

　　第三，国际形势恶化引发股市悲观。上半年外围经济的采购经理指数（PMI）出现诸多变数。美国PMI在3、4月份上升，之后又回落。日本的PMI在50附近小幅波动，趋势向下。欧元区的PMI基本呈一路下行态势。欧债危机在上半年不断升级演化，可谓波澜起伏。先是3月份的希腊信用违约掉期（CDS）问题引发希腊无序违约担忧，4月份的荷兰、法国政局问题引发市场担忧，两国政局的不确定性主要影响欧元区普遍紧缩措施的贯彻。5月份希腊在选举结束9天后，各政党至5月15日依然未能就组建联合政府达成一致而必须举行新的选举，5月中旬到6月中旬市场笼罩在希腊退欧的担忧之中。此外，上半年西班牙成为欧债危机新焦点。5月份，西班牙银行业问题引发市场额外关注，5月17日穆迪宣布下调16家西班牙银行评级，之后标普和惠誉相继宣布下调数家西班牙银行的评级。在银行业陷入困境之际，西班牙融资成本上升，10年期国债收益率不断飙升。

The third,The international situation worse cause stock market pessimism.In the first half of the peripheral economic purchasing managers index(PMI)Appear many variables.The United States PMI in 3/Rose in April,Later dropped.Japan's PMI in near 50 small-scope fluctuation,Trend downward.The euro area's basic PMI is all the way down trend.The debt crisis in the first half of escalating evolution,It may be said of the ups and downs of the.First the march issue of the Greek credit default swaps(CDS)Greek disorder caused concerns of breach of contract,In April the Netherlands/The French political problem cause market concerns,The two countries the uncertainty of the political main influence the eurozone common austerity measures implemented.May 9 days after the end of the election Greece,All political parties to May 15, still have failed to form a coalition government must be an agreement to hold new elections,Mid-may to mid-june market shrouded in Greek champions back the carmaker.In addition,In the first half of Spain became the new focus debt crisis.may,The Spanish banking market caused extra attention,On May 17, moody's announced cut 16 a Spanish bank rating,After s&p and fitch ratings have announced cut several Spanish bank's rating.On the occasion of the banking mess up,Spain the cost of their finance goes up,The 10-year Treasury yield soaring.

　　上半年欧债问题的反复，直接牵动着A股市场的神经。市场担忧希腊债务违约，是触发A股3月下行的重要因素。尤其是5月份，对希腊大选的走向，以及新出现的西班牙银行业危机，增加了市场的悲观情绪。在外部不利因素的冲击下，使得5 月份A股市场未能延续4 月份的上涨行情，股市开始一路下行。

In the first half of the debt question again and again,Directly affects the A share market nerve.Fears the Greek debt default,Is triggering A share march descending of the important factors.Especially in May,The trend of the general election against Greece,And the emergence of new Spanish banking crisis,Increase the market pessimism.In the external under the impact of unfavorable factors,In may make A share market failed to continue rising market in April,The stock market started to all the way down.

　　总体而言，基本面的弱势和政策的强势两方面因素交织，促成了市场走出了上半年的宽幅震荡行情。

In general,The basic the weak and the strong policy two factors mixed,Helped out of the market in the first half of a wide range of prices.

　下半年走势展望 In the second half of the trend outlook

　　虽然目前市场内部存在着较强的上涨动能，但如果宏观经济持续低迷，股市亦难以走出独立上涨的行情，我们判断低位震荡仍会是下半年股市运行的主要特点。但是，如果宏观经济运行企稳回升明显，股市仍有可能提前走出阴霾并形成新一轮上升行情。因此，我们对下半年的股市行情保持谨慎乐观的心态。

Although the present market exist a strong rise kinetic energy,But if the macro economy continued to slump,The stock market would be difficult to rise out of the independent market,We judge shakeouts would still be in the second half of the main characteristics of the stock market operation.but,If the operation of macro economy stabilises rebounded significantly,The stock market is still might come out of the haze in advance and form a new round of rising prices.therefore,We in the second half of the stock market to remain cautious optimism.

　　第一，改革趋势延续，提升公众信心。下半年我国将召开十八大，全面社会经济政治改革将会进一步推进，改革的深入将会大大提升公众的信心。一些具体的改革政策具有时滞效应，上半年出台的一些财政、货币政策和资本市场政策对实体经济的作用，会在下半年逐步显现，这些政策效应的发挥将有助于稳定投资者预期，提升公众信心。

The first,Reform trends continue,Increase public confidence.The second half of our country will hold a large 18,Comprehensive social economic and political reform will further,The deepening of the reform will greatly improve the public's confidence.Some concrete reform policy has the delay effect,Introduced in the first half of some of the financial/Monetary policy and capital market policy on the role of the real economy,In the second half will gradually appear,The effect of these policies play would help stabilize investors expected,Increase public confidence.

　　第二，投资有望企稳回升，消费出口难有起色。6月份，固定资产投资同比名义增长20.4%，较上月回升0.3个百分点。未来对于一些关键项目如“十二五”规划中的重大新开工项目、在建续建项目、符合结构调整的转型项目，定向宽松的可能性较大。因此，下半年投资增长有望企稳回升，到第四季度，企稳回升的势头会较为明显。上半年，国家各部委出台了一系列促消费政策，但是在经济增速持续下滑的背景下，消费者购买预期下降，消费政策的效果要滞后较长时间。预计下半年消费低迷仍将持续。上半年出口累计同比增长9.2%，增速已降至个位数。下半年，欧洲经济难以走出泥潭，美国增长面临通胀压力，金砖五国前景难料，贸易保护主义升级等诸多不利因素，市场不确定性未消除，形势依旧不容乐观。

The second,Investment is expected to rebound stabilises,Consumption export difficult to recover.June,Fixed asset investment growth of 20.4% year-on-year name,A 0.3% rally last month.The future for some key projects such as"1025"In the planning of major new projects/Construction project under construction/With the transformation of structure adjustment project,Directional loose probability.therefore,In the second half of the investment growth is expected to rebound stabilises,To the fourth quarter,Stabilises picks up momentum will be more obvious.In the first half of,National ministries issued a series of policies to promote consumption,But in economic growth under the background of continued decline,Consumers purchase is expected to decline,The effect of consumption policy to lag a long time.In the second half of the consumption is expected to slump will continue.In the first half of the total exports year-on-year increase of 9.2%,Growth has been reduced to a single-digit.Second half,European economic difficult to out of the mire,The United States growth face inflationary pressure,Nuggets five prospects difficult material,Trade protectionism upgrade and so on many unfavorable factors,The market did not eliminate uncertainty,The situation is still not optimistic.

　　第三，欧美经济低位运行，市场不确定性难消除。从大的周期看，欧美经济处于历史底部。短期来看，欧美经济的前景仍存在很多不确定性。美国和欧元区的投资信心自4月之后一路下行，美国6月份的投资信心指数也已降至负数。牵动上半年全球市场情绪的欧债问题短期内难以彻底解决，一是欧元区各国利益博弈过程的持久性，会延缓危机解决进程；二是高额财政赤字与公共债务的削减，不可能一蹴而就。下半年欧债问题仍可能会反复发酵，影响市场情绪。从好的方面看，当前欧美经济也有一些乐观的苗头开始显现。美国制造业、服务业保持扩张态势，对外贸易表现基本平稳，下半年进入消费旺季以后，美国的消费有望继续改善。从欧洲来看，前期欧洲央行向欧洲银行业累计释放了1万亿流动性，从欧洲央行对欧洲银行业的信贷调查看，这部分流动性正在逐步向实体经济释放。

The third,Europe and the United States economic low operation,Market uncertainty difficult to eliminate.From the big cycle to see,Europe and the United States economy is in historical bottom.Short term,Europe and America's economic prospects still exists a lot of uncertainty.The United States and the euro area's investment confidence since 4 month after all the way down,The United States June investment confidence index has dropped to minus.In the first half of affects global market sentiment of the debt question in the short term is difficult to completely solve,One is the eurozone countries benefit gambling process persistent,Will delay the crisis solving process;The second is high fiscal deficit and public debt cuts,Can't accomplish in one move.The second half of the debt problem is still may be repeated fermentation,Influence market sentiment.Look on the bright side of things,The current Europe and the United States economy also have some optimistic symptom began to appear.The United States manufacturing/Service industry keep expansion trend,Foreign trade performance basic smoothly,In the second half of the season after into consumption,American consumption is expected to continue to improve.From Europe to see,The European central bank to the European banking accumulated released 1 trillion liquidity,From the European central bank to the European banking credit investigation to see,This part of the liquidity is gradually to the entity economy release.

　　（作者单位为中国证监会研究中心，其中，黄运成为教授、研究员。本文仅代表作者个人观点。）

(The author unit for the China securities regulatory commission research center,the,HuangYun become a professor/The researchers.This article only on behalf of the author's point of view.)