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“庞氏骗局”当慎辨--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-10-18

  自金融大盗麦道夫获刑入狱后,历史上尘封已久的“庞氏骗局”一词再度流行,近几年来不断见诸报端。中国上市公司舆情中心注意到,不仅中国银行(601988,股吧)董事长肖钢先生敢于直言银行信托理财资金池业务“本质上”是“庞氏骗局”,近期亦有媒体将信托理财资金池业务发掘出来,同样质疑这种“借短贷长、借新还旧”的金融产品有可能是“庞氏骗局”。

Since financial thief Douglas husband won the punishment after prison,History dusty already a long time of"Ponzi scheme"A word once more popular,In recent years continuously in the central hunan province.Chinese listed company public opinion center noticed,Not only the bank of China(601988,guba)The chairman Mr. XiaoGang to speak up bank trust financing the pool business"essence"is"Ponzi scheme",Recent media will also have the trust financing the pool business excavated,The same question this"Borrow short credit long/Borrow new also old"Financial products may be"Ponzi scheme".

  笔者以为,正视这些金融产品所面临的流动性风险是对的,但是如果仅以此为依据认定其为庞氏骗局,则颇为值得商榷。

The author thought,To face up to the financial products facing the liquidity risk is right,But if only on the basis of the determination for the ponzi scheme,It is worth discussing.

  为什么?因为如果将“借短贷长、借新还旧”认定为庞氏骗局的基本特征的话,那么银行算什么呢?从本质上来讲,银行不也正是“借短贷长、借新还旧”吗?我们去翻一翻银行报表,国内各家银行无一例外都以活期存款占比高为荣,而相应的贷款则绝大部分集中在一年期贷款。同时,我们能够清晰准确地界定每一笔存款对应了哪一笔贷款吗?显然也是不能的。

why?Because if the"Borrow short credit long/Borrow new also old"Identified as ponzi scheme the basic features of words,So what is the bank?From essentially,The bank is not"Borrow short credit long/Borrow new also old"??We go to turn the bank statements,Domestic Banks without exception to current deposit account for more than GaoWeiRong,And the corresponding loan is most concentrated in the benchmark one-year loan.At the same time,We can clear to define each corresponding deposit which a loan?And apparently unable to.

  那为什么银行没有成为“庞氏骗局”?因为银行有非常完备的流动性管理体系和机制。同时,每个国家都有完备的法律体系,来应对银行倒闭可能出现的存款人权益受损的情况。也就是说,银行的流动性风险是相对可控的。但尽管如此,流动性风险依然是传统银行从业人员不敢懈怠的高压红线。不管翻阅哪一家银行的年度报告,甚至任何一本银行学教程,流动性风险都是重点分析的对象。

Why did not become a bank"Ponzi scheme"?Because the bank has a very complete liquidity management system and mechanism.At the same time,Every country has a complete legal system,To cope with the bank may appear depositor rights damaged condition.That is,The liquidity risk of Banks is relatively controllable.But even so,Liquidity risk is still traditional bank employees can't slacken high-pressure red line.No matter which through a bank's annual report,Even any a banking tutorial,Liquidity risk are key analysis object.

  那流动性风险与金融圈内时颇为流行的“庞氏骗局”的区别是什么呢?笔者以为,区别主要在于相关的产品是否具有主观恶意,或者明知故犯。以麦道夫为例,明知道自己不会投资任何金融市场,但却敢于借新还旧,这种主观恶意的行为即可定性为“庞氏骗局”。同样,如果任意一个银行理财产品或者信托产品资金池,在明知道无法兑现相应投资收益的情况下,依然向投资者发售理财产品募集资金,那么这样的产品操作也是“庞氏骗局”。

The liquidity risk and financial circles is very popular in the"Ponzi scheme"What is the difference?The author thought,The main difference is related to the product have subjective malice,Or knowingly violate.To Douglas husband, for example,He knows he is not investment any financial market,But dare to borrow the new is old,This kind of subjective malicious behavior can qualitative for"Ponzi scheme".The same,If any one of the bank financing products or trust products the pool,In the know unable to meet the corresponding investment income of the case,Still on sale to the investors the financial products to raise funds,Such products operation is also"Ponzi scheme".

  但是,正如银行也无法回避流动性风险一样,大多数资金池类理财产品显然都要面临流动性风险的挑战。因此,对这个问题更为客观的看法,应该是研究怎样去应对流动性问题带来的风险。

but,As Banks are unable to avoid as liquidity risk,Most of the pool kind of financial products are obviously want to face the challenge of liquidity risk.therefore,To this problem more objective view,Should be study how to deal with the risk of liquidity problems.

  可行的思路是加强监管,比如强制要求成立专门部门应对相应产品的流动性风险,通过更为透明的信息公开,让产品接受市场监督等。事实上,这也正是国内监管层在资金池类理财产品监管上的主要态度要求公开透明、逐一对应。这种做法实际是在通过机制来约束类似产品中可能存在的主观恶意漏洞即防止其从客观存在的流动性风险,向主观恶意的“庞氏骗局”演变。

Feasible ideas is to strengthen supervision,Such as mandatory requirement to set up a special department to deal with the corresponding product liquidity risk,Through the more transparent information openness,Let the product accept market supervision, etc.In fact,This is the domestic regulatory layer in the pool kind of financial products on the supervision of the main attitude transparent requirements/Each corresponding.This kind of practice is actually in through the mechanism to constraint in similar products may exist subjective malice loophole that prevent them from the objective existence of the liquidity risk,To the subjective malicious"Ponzi scheme"evolution.

  其实,目前许多资金池类理财产品最大的问题反而不是流动性风险,而是资金是否借这一通道隐秘地流向种种受到调控的领域,比如房地产。而且这一现状,实际上会加大类似组合的流动性风险。原因很简单,因为投资领域受到政策限制,投资成功的可能性和相关回报实现的风险也更大,投资人遭受损失的可能性也就更大。事实上,如果投资合规合法,整个资金池的运作风险反而是可控的。 (作者系中国上市公司舆情中心观察员)

In fact,At present a lot of funds pool kind of financial products the biggest problem but not liquidity risk,But if money through this channel cryptically flow by regulation of the field,Such as real estate.And the current situation,In fact will increase the similar combination of liquidity risk.The reason is very simple,Because the area of investment limited by policy,Investment the possibility to succeed and related returns the realization is also a greater risk,The possibility of loss of investors will also be more big.In fact,If investment legal compliance,The whole pool of operational risk it is controllable. (The author is the Chinese listed company public opinion center observers)



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