文/Walid L. Petiri 编译/万黎

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　　Walid L.Petiri，资深RFC持证人，亚洲管理教育联合会（AAMS）会员

Walid L.P etiri,Senior RFC holder,Asian management education association(AAMS)member

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　　几十年来，金融机构陆陆续续地将定期大额存单、储蓄账户、货币市场基金、计息支票账户和固定年金进行包装，在人们的头脑中，它们已经成为无风险或低风险投资的代名词。虽然这是银行为投资者想出来的最好的规避本金损失风险的方法，但是在任何情况下，人们都能切实地感觉到，利率在一天天地下调，而通胀率却一天天在爬升，联邦基金的利率仍然微不足道，银行为通胀这一病患开出这些保守的药方无济于事，本金赶超通胀的动力远远不够。而今，债务的价格又在缓缓上涨，尤其是美国和德国的主权债务。 6月1日，10年期国债收益率收于1.47%后，又在1.44%处触底，自4月26日起，它一直处在低于2%的水平。而德国的10年期债券收益率仅仅为1.2%。

decades,Financial institutions to one regular big deposit receipt/Savings account/Monetary market fund/Interest-bearing checking account and fixed annuity for packaging,In the minds of the people,They have become no risk or low risk investment pronoun.Although this is a bank for investors who want to come out of the best to avoid the risk of loss of the principal method,But in any case,People can really feel,Interest rate cut in a day of heaven and earth,But inflation is day by day in the climbing,The federal funds rate is still small,Bank as the inflation this patient open these conservative prescription of no help,The principal surpass the inflation power far from enough.now,Debt price and rising slowly,Especially in the United States and Germany's sovereign debt. June 1,,The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.47%,And in 1.44% place touch bottom,Since April 26 up,It has been at the level of less than 2%.And German 10-year bond yields only 1.2%.

　　2011年美国的通胀率是3.0%，据报道，2012年3月的年均通胀率下降到2.7%。今天，许多定期大额存单、货币市场基金和收入支票账户的利息收益率都没有跟上这个速度。然而，所谓的CPI并不能够说明一切，以往的经验告诉我们，这个指数的统计还没有覆盖到所有的商品，比如我们所熟知的汽油等。2011年2月3日，汽油的零售价格上涨了9.9%，几乎是当时CPI的3倍。离退休人员都感受到了低利率的疼痛。随着联邦基金利率确定在0～0.25%，短期的定期大额存单今天会获得0.5%的利息。在2007年年底，也就是金融危机爆发前如果将资金放入长期定期大额存单的话，2011年4月底应有的收益就会损失2/3。

In 2011 America's inflation rate is 3.0%,According to the report,In march of 2012 with an annual inflation rate dropped to 2.7%.today,Many regular big deposit receipt/Money market funds and income cheque account interest rate of return are not keep up with the speed.however,The so-called CPI does not explain everything,Past experience has taught us,This index statistics have not covered all the goods,For example we known as gasoline, etc.On February 3, 2011,The retail price of gasoline has gone up 9.9%,Is almost three times the CPI at that time.Retirees are feeling the pain of lower interest rates.With the federal funds rate to determine the 0 ~ 0.25%,Short-term regular big deposit receipt today will get 0.5% interest.In the end of 2007,Is the financial crisis before the outbreak of the if put money into long-term regular big deposit receipt words,At the end of April 2011 due income will loss two-thirds.

　　报纸会给人留下这样的印象：通胀一直温和，个人收入小幅走高，用于贫困救济的资金不是很高。但在现实世界中，许多消费项目的价格要高得多，尤其是在贫穷的街区，他们没有沃尔玛或者其他对价格甚为敏感的零售商。许多老年人的收入没有增加，利息收益继续下滑，再加上他们时时恐怖的股市，很多老年家庭正在经历所谓的“金融耗尽”。许多上了年纪的美国人在退休后的精打细算，入不敷出。虽然想赚到足够的钱，以避免贫困，但不会有太大的安全保护措施，家庭资产正在缩水，无辜的他们正做出无痛的金融牺牲。总结起来，许多离退休人员的困境有四，一是定期大额存单和货币市场账户的收益率几乎没有，二是他们的消费几乎超过他们的收入，三是退休基金缩水，四是他们必须缩减开支，降低生活标准。

Newspaper can give a person leave the impression:Inflation has been mild,Personal income small go high,Used for poverty relief funds is not very high.But in the real world,Many consumer the price of the project would be much higher,Especially in the poor neighborhoods,They have no wal-mart or other very sensitive to price the retailers.Many old people's income has not increased,Interest income continue to slide,Plus they always terror of the stock market,Many old families are going through the so-called"Financial depletion".Many older americans in retirement pinch pennies,Cannot make ends meet.Although want to earn enough money,In order to avoid poverty,But won't have too big safety protection measures,Family assets are shrinking,Innocent they are making a painless financial sacrifices.Summarize up,Many retirees dilemma have four,One is the regular big deposit receipt and money market account yields almost no,The second is their consumption almost more than their income,The third is retirement funds shrink,The fourth is they have to cut spending,Lower standard of living.

　　近期报道，美国的年平均通胀率为2%～4%，因此，如果居民消费价格在未来的20年里，每年上涨4%，到2032年，今天的1美元的实际价值将是44美分，今天价值1000美元的特大号床到2032年就会涨到2200美元，2.3万美元的轿车会涨到5万美元。除了汽油或耐用品的价格，食品和医疗保健的成本也不会例外。因此，大多数退休人员都迫切地需要属于自己的投资组合以产生至少3%的收益，避免购买力被侵蚀。

Recent reports,America's average annual inflation rate is 2% ~ 4%,therefore,If consumer price in the next 20 years,Rose by 4% each year,By 2032,Today's $1 of the actual value will be 44 cents,Today's $1000 worth of king-size bed to 2032 will rise to $2200,$23000 cars will rise to $50000.In addition to the price of gasoline or durable goods,Food and health care costs also not an exception.therefore,Most of the retired personnel are urgently need to belong to own portfolio to produce at least 3% of the income,To avoid the erosion of purchasing power.

　　一些债券市场分析人士认为，近来一段时间金融机构正在开发具有阶梯到期日的短期债券。这一举动所要权衡的是，用低收益率来换取由利率上升所导致的有价证券价值的降幅变小。如果一直抱着从短期债券中获得高收益的目的，就必须确定这些债券属于可投资级别，而不是所谓的AAA或者 AA的评级。如果预期利率上升，在近一段时期，使用短期限债券可以在很短的时间内拿回本金。这可以给出充分的现金流用以获得更高的收益率。然而，如果判断债务人在未来数年内陷入财务僵局，就应该将自己限制在小仓债券里。

Some bond market analysts believe that,Recently, a period of time financial institutions are developing with step maturity date short-term bond.The move will weigh is,With low rate of return for interest rates by the rise in the value of the securities by smaller.If has been hold from short-term bonds be rewarded with high returns for the purpose,Just have to make sure that these bonds are investment grade,Not so-called AAA or AA rating.If a rise in interest rates expected,In a recent period,Use short term bonds may be in a very short time back to the principal.This can give full cash flow to obtain a higher rate of return.however,Determine if the debtor in the next few years into financial impasse,Should limit myself in small in bonds.

　　为什么人们把他们的资金做了一个10年期回报率只有1.5%的投资？原因就是恐惧。今年春天，波动和全球经济衰退带来的恐惧如此盛行，以至于许多投资者都在呼吁“不要再失去”。然而，当利率上升时，长期债券的业主可能会发现自己失去了其投资组合的潜力。可能是由历史记忆造成的。1900～1970年，美国平均通胀率为2.5%左右，年均通货膨胀率从1970年开始朝6%的方向发展，到1979年达到为13.3%，直到1982年跌到3.8%，美国居民消费价格的年涨幅在20世纪70年代为7.4%，80年代为5.1%，对比之下，50年代和60年代的数据分别为2.2%和2.5%。

Why do people put their money made a 10-year return only 1.5% of the investment?Reason is that fear.This spring,Fluctuation and the global economic slump bring fear are so popular,That many investors are called for"Don't lose".however,When interest rates rise,The owner of long-term bonds may find themselves lost its portfolio potential.May be caused by the historical memory.1900 ~ 1970,The average inflation rate is about 2.5%,With an average annual inflation rate at 6% since 1970 in the direction of the development,By 1979 to 13.3%,Until 1982 fell to 3.8%,The United States consumer prices in the increase in the 1970 s to 7.4%,In the 80 s to 5.1%,contrast,50 s and 60 s data were 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.

　　这一切都将说明一件事，那就是人们不能隐藏在固定的收入。通胀有一个强大的累积影响，无论你如何保守或积极投资，都要寻求至少跟上它的步伐的途径。

All this will illustrate a thing,It's people can't hide in a fixed income.Inflation has a powerful cumulative effects,No matter how you keep or active investment,All want to seek at least keep up with the pace of its way.