人们对于流动性抱有诸多虚幻的憧憬。在这种情况下，流动性仍然是一笔资产在预定时间转换为预期价值的可能性，但所需价值可能是金子、巧克力、魔戒、魔鞋或魔豆

People have for liquidity many illusions.In this case,Liquidity is still an asset in the scheduled time into the possibility of expected value,But required value may be gold/chocolate/Lord of the rings/Magic slippers or magic beans

　　衍生品交易并不是什么新鲜事儿。

Derivatives trading is not anything new business.

　　将期权定价法作为唯一的交易正统思想体系的金融人士寥寥无几，但金融业中被衍生产品及其交易冲昏头脑的却大有人在。

Will the option pricing as the only trade orthodox ideology of financial very few people,But in the financial industry by derivative products and trade turn one's head was there.

　　期权定价理论假定你可以在你的选择时间里（或选择间隔中）轻松地交易。在金融世界里，这个假设并不总是行得通的；事实上，在你最需要的时候它总是靠不住。一些危机，诸如长期资本管理公司的崩溃、21世纪初的银行业危机等之所以如此极端，还有流动性瞬间消失的原因。

The theory of option price fixing to assume that you can in your choice of time(Or the choice of interval)Easily deal.In the financial world,This assumption is not always practicable;In fact,In your time of greatest need it is unreliable.Some crisis,Such as the collapse of long-term capital management company/At the beginning of 21st century banking crisis are so extreme,And liquidity instant disappearance.

　　在流动性中溺水 In the liquidity of drowning

　　流动性的基本定义是一笔资产在预期时间内转换为预期价值的概率。如果你知道你的鱼竿一小时之内可以卖到100美元，那么你就可以称之为流动资产。如果你不确定你手上由两位作者双双签名的这本书值多少钱，更不要说这本书要多久才能出手、在哪里能出手、能向谁出手，那就打消这个念头吧，这本书是低流动性的。

The liquidity of the basic definition is an asset in the expected time internal conversion for expected value of the probability.If you know your rod an hour can sell for 100 dollars,So you can call it current assets.If you're not sure you hand by the authors have both signed the book value how many money,Not to mention the book how long it will take to make moves/Where can I sell/Can sell to whom,Then out of the mind,This book is low liquidity.

　　现在我们回到鱼竿的假设上。假设鱼竿含有石墨成分，相当昂贵；这是一个价值100美元流动性强的鱼竿，或是一个价值1000美元流动性不强的鱼竿。当然，如果有一个鱼竿交易所，你的鱼竿也许就会有超乎你理解的流动性，即便鱼竿很干，根本流不起来。如果你所在的集镇每周三都有一个大型鱼竿交易集市，而你在缺钱时提前一周知道自己将要用钱，那你的鱼竿流动性就更强了。如果你知道可以在eBay上出售鱼竿，那么鱼竿的流动性又增强了。这就是市场的关键作用：它使人们更加确定一项资产在预期时间内是否可以转换为预期价值。市场提供了流动性。没有流动性，由于匹配买卖双方的成本（寻求交易对手的成本）会上涨，价格会出错，交易效率就会降低。市场增加了卖家需要时以合适价格售出商品的可能性。

Now we return to rod hypothesis.Hypothesis rod containing graphite component,Quite expensive;This is a $100 liquidity strong rod,Or a $1000 is not strong liquidity of the rod.Of course,If there is a fishing rod exchange,Your rod maybe there will be beyond your understanding of liquidity,Even if the rod is very dry,Fundamental flow can't get up.If you are together every town has a large rod trading market,And you are short of money in a week early know they will use the money to,That your rod liquidity is more stronger.If you know that can be sold on eBay fishing rod,So rod liquidity and enhanced the.This is the crucial role of the market:It makes people more sure an asset in the expected time if you can convert to expected value.Market with liquidity.No liquidity,Due to the matching buyers and sellers of the cost(For the cost of the counterparty)Will go up,Price will go wrong,Transaction efficiency will be low.Market increased when the seller wants to fit the possibility of price of goods sold.

　　通常来讲，现金是流动性最强的资产，因为它的价值最为确定。如果股价不变，那么流动性就不成问题，因为你可以推定你总能找到买家。如果你知道某个股票的价格是固定的，那么流动性的成本就仅仅只是带息成本减去已得红利。注意，现金可以转换为现金。你可以和朋友互换20美元的钞票，双方在交易这个实体资产时都对价值感到确定，无任何担忧。在这个高流动性的交易中，没有人会损失一分一毫。但如果你和朋友交换鱼竿，特别当对方是一个喜欢以次充好糊弄你的小气鬼时，至少你们中有一方会在交易中担心蒙受损失。

Generally speaking,Cash is the most illiquid assets,Because its value to determine the most.If share prices unchanged,So liquidity won't be a problem,Because you can constructive you can always find a buyer.If you know a stock price is fixed,So the cost of liquidity will only take interest cost minus already have bonus.note,Cash can be converted into cash.You can swap and friends 20 dollar bill,Both sides in the transaction the physical assets value to feel sure,Without any worry.In this high liquidity trading,No one will lose a cent.But if you and your friends exchange rod,Especially when the other party is a like shoddy deceive you when stingy,At least you have a party in trading will worry about incur losses.

　　电子银行账户的流动性比现金流动性弱一点，只弱一点点。股票的流动性比电子银行账户的流动性更弱。房子的流动性比股票弱：卖房可能会有困难，房子价值会波动，有时波动剧烈。赛马联盟的股份，其流动性就更弱了。要苦苦寻找买家才能卖出的商品，其流动性差。对冲基金有流动性吗？迈克尔·尼斯特罗姆指出：

Electronic bank account liquidity than cash liquidity weak point,Only a little weak.Stock liquidity than electronic bank account liquidity even weaker.The liquidity of stock house than weak:We may have some difficulties selling,The house value fluctuates,Sometimes volatile.Horse racing league shares,Their liquidity is more weak.To searching for the buyer to sell goods,The liquidity difference.Hedge funds have liquidity?Michael nice main points out:

　　在次贷危机期间，把钱投入这个基金，流动性比底特律的房产还差。一些对冲基金暂停基金赎回，这就好比说：“对！你的钱在我这儿，很保险，但现在不能兑现……”那你什么时候能兑现？这个，看情况。或许永远也拿不到？

In the subprime mortgage crisis period,Put all the money in the fund,Liquidity than Detroit property is poor.Some hedge funds suspended fund redemption,This is like saying:"to!Your money at I am here,Very insurance,But now you can't cash..."That what time can you cash?this,It depends.Perhaps never get?

　　人们需要的或许不是现金。人们对于流动性抱有诸多虚幻的憧憬。在这种情况下，流动性仍然是一笔资产在预定时间转换为预期价值的可能性，但所需价值可能是金子、巧克力、魔戒、魔鞋或魔豆。

People need, perhaps, not cash.People have for liquidity many illusions.In this case,Liquidity is still an asset in the scheduled time into the possibility of expected value,But required value may be gold/chocolate/Lord of the rings/Magic slippers or magic beans.

　　在个人层面上，流动性的重要性不难理解。如果你欠人钱，对方规定偿还时间，你最好有可以确信轻松兑换为现金的流动性资产。如果在需要现金时不能筹款，即便你坐拥巨额资产，还是会面临流动性危机。出于流动性考虑，你持有股票要好过马场股份。我们都听说过，有的富人可能拥有大宗房产，手头却现金短缺。自然有人会尝试利用这种情况所创造的商业机会，例如以一定代价向流动性差的资产提供流动性的典当商就是以此为生的。

On personal level,It is not difficult to understand the importance of liquidity.If you owe people money,The other provisions to repay the time,You'd better have can be sure that easily converted into cash liquidity assets.If in need cash can't raise money,Even if you sit and have huge assets,Or will be faced with a liquidity crisis.Out of liquidity to consider,You hold the stock to better racecourse shares.We all heard of,Some rich people may have bulk property,But short of cash on hand.Natural someone will try to take advantage of this kind of situation create business opportunities,For example, at a cost to illiquid assets to provide liquidity to the pawnbroker is living.

　　交易员喜欢把流动性一词挂在嘴边，乐此不疲地谈论当下的市场流动性如何强、如何差。

The liquidity traders like a word in noises,Joyfully to talk about the current market liquidity how to strong/How to poor.

　　有趣的是，当一个交易员在交易中挣到一笔时，他会说那是他选对了市场时机。但是，当他在交易中赔钱的时候，他就会抱怨市场流动性消失。这实在失之公允。

Interesting is,When a trader in trading earn when a,He would say that it was he who chose to the market timing.but,When he was trading when out of pocket,He will be complaining that the market liquidity disappear.This is the loss of the fair.

　　这里的关键问题在于，要确定市场是否出现了于某人不利的变动，或者说出现了流动性变弱的情况，这是非常困难的，甚至是不可能的。流动性很少作为影响因子被纳入交易模型，一方面是因为交易的大玩家们不理睬流动性问题，另一方面则是因为要将流动性纳入交易模型并不容易。我们应该在交易模型中输入什么样的流动性？是妨碍了持仓调整的一种摩擦形式（交易成本）吗？是头寸大小与整个市场的关系（价格成本）吗？是特定价格水平（买入卖出区域）上的交易量计算吗？是不会显著影响价格（常规市场规模）的交易量上限（临界量）吗？

Here's the key problem is,To determine whether the market appeared in someone's expense changes,Or appeared liquidity weaken situation,This is very difficult,Even impossible.Liquidity rarely as influencing factor was incorporated into trading model,On the one hand, because of the large trading players ignore liquidity problems,On the other hand it is because will liquidity into the transaction model is not easy.We should in trade model input what kind of liquidity?Is hindered the position adjustment of a kind of friction form(Transaction cost)??Is the position size and the relation between market(Price cost)??Is the specific price level(Buying selling area)Trading volume on the calculation?The price is not significant effect(Conventional market scale)Trading limit(Critical quantity)??

　　时间、价值、可能性及金钱 time/value/Possibility and money

　　我们对流动性的定义——某一资产预期时间内转换为预期价值的可能性，有些杂乱，因为你需要同时考虑到流动性的三个特点：可能性、价值和时间，同时还要承认有关流动性的一个基本假设，即你理解金钱。我们的讨论从时间开始。

We have the definition of liquidity - a assets expected time into the possibility of expected value,Some mixed and disorderly,Because you need at the same time considering the liquidity of the three characteristics:possibility/Value and time,At the same time also admitted that the liquidity of a basic assumptions,That is, you understand money.Our discussion from the beginning of time.

　　英语词组caught short有两个意思，都与流动性有关，一个意思很直截了当，就是“缺钱”，另一个意思是“捉襟见肘”，确切地讲就是在需要钱的时候没有钱，和时间有关，指在不恰当的时间点上流动性出现冻结。与人一样，企业需要密切注意流动性的时间问题。企业流动性越强，就越有能力履行短期债务。流动比率是用来评估一家公司流动性程度的标准。尽管这些比率给人一个数学上的确定性，但实际上企业和个人常常遭遇流动性危机，特别是当你的债主上门讨债，而你的债务人又迟迟不付他对你的欠账的时候（三角债）。这种情况对有些人或机构来说也是商机，例如，向公司提供短期信贷业务的银行和向个人提供短期信贷业务的信用卡公司。银行通过缩短平均贷款期限来增强自身流动性。我们可不喜欢时间上的“意外”，一旦出现时间上的意外，就会发生流动性风险。“流动”（go liquid）的时间（也就是变现的时机）是理解流动性概念的关键，但不是全部。

English phrase caught short have two meanings,And the liquidity,A meaning very straightforward,is"Lack of money",Another meaning is"Rebuilding the",To be precise is in need money have no money,And time related,Refers to the wrong time point liquidity appears frozen.And people,The enterprise needs to pay close attention to the time of liquidity problems.The stronger enterprise liquidity,The ability to perform short-term debt.Flow rate is used to evaluate a company liquidity degree of standard.Although these ratio give a person a mathematical certainty,But the fact is that enterprises and individuals often encounter liquidity crisis,Especially when you creditors to pay the rent,And your debtor delays and don't pay his bills due time(Chain debts).This kind of situation for some person or institution is also business opportunities,For example,The company to provide short-term credit business bank and to provide individuals with a short term credit business credit card companies.Bank by shortening average loan time limit to strengthen their liquidity.We don't like time"accident",Once appear on the time of the accident,Will happen liquidity risk."flow"(Go liquid)time(Also is the timing of the realizable)Liquidity is to understand the key concepts,But not all.

　　接下来探讨流动性的价值。人们感到能在卖出之前从市场中获知价格是最为理想的。在拍卖会这样的市场上，如果你设定了一个内定保底价，意味着你想知道自己要出售商品时最低能得到多少，但你会满心欢喜地期待更多。如果你卖出的价格低于预期或是你买入的价格高于预期，你会十分失望。失望的原因有二：其一，你或许不曾料到市场收费（服务费等）这么高；其二，你未能实现所期望的价格。回到卖房这个例子上。如果房产经纪费用过高，或是你收到的参考价格被事实证明其实被严重高估，最终你会感到失望。即便对于职业交易员而言，一小笔固定成本也会增大“不交易”范围（no-trade regions），从而对流动性和资产价值产生重大影响。我们也不喜欢价值上的“意外”，价值上的意外可能也会导致流动性风险。

The next to explore the value of liquidity.People feel selling from the market before learn that the price is most ideal.So in the auction market,If you set a default the floor price,Means that you want to know what you want to sell goods minimum can get much,But you will relish looking forward to more.If you sell a price lower than expected or you buying price higher than expected,You will be very disappointed.Disappointed for two reasons:one,You may not expect market charges(Fees and other)So high;The second,You fail to achieve expected price.Back to the house on this example.If real estate brokerage cost is too high,Or you receive from the reference price proved to actually be seriously overvalued,Eventually you will be disappointed.Even for professional traders concerned,A small amount of fixed cost will also increase"Don't deal"range(No - trade regions),And the liquidity and assets value have a significant impact.We also don't like value"accident",The value of the accident may also lead to liquidity risk.

　　我们来探讨第三个特点：可能性。风险常常被定义为可能性（概率）乘以影响，所以你想要卖出某物却不能如愿以偿的风险可以被量化。如果你知道你1000美元的鱼竿可以卖到1000美元，还有50%的概率最低卖到500美元，平均下来你的价值风险（value at risk）就是250美元。如果你知道你的鱼竿可以一周内卖出，还有50%最坏的可能要三周内卖出，那么你的时间风险（timing at risk）就是两周：常规的一周，加上平均风险时间一周，共两周。要将时间和价值结合为一个单一的流动性风险标准，你就要知道这多出来的不能变现的一周应该算是多少价值成本，或许就因为这多拖的一周，你就会错过某个付款截止日，因此会遭受一大笔罚款，那就把这个罚款价值加到前面计算出来的平均价值风险250美元之上。

We talk about the third characteristics:possibility.Risk is often defined as possibility(probability)Multiplied by the influence,So you want to sell something cannot achieve risk can be quantified.If you know you us $1000 for the rod can sell for 1000 dollars,There are 50% of the probability lowest sell for 500 dollars,The average down your value risk(Value at risk)Is 250 dollars.If you know your rod can be sold within a week,And 50% of the worst may be sold within three weeks,Then your time risk(Timing at risk)Is two weeks:Conventional week,Plus average risk time a week,Were two weeks.To time and value are combined as a single liquidity risk standard,You will know that this extra not realizable week should be much of the value cost,Perhaps because of this many tow week,You will miss a payment deadline,So would suffer a lot of fines,Then the penalty value added to the front of the average value calculated risk over us $250.

　　传统的流动性成本价值风险调节方法是：确保你选取的价格变动幅度至少高于流动性正常时期水平，但忽略极端情况。你也可以想方设法把时间风险转化为成本，这样就能得出一个单一数值。但在试图将复杂的概率函数转换为便捷的单个数值时，会存在各种陷阱。总之：

The traditional liquidity cost value risk adjustment method is:Make sure that you selected price range at least above liquidity normal period level,But ignore the extreme situation.You can also try to put time risk into cost,This could lead to a single value.But in trying to complex probability function conversion for convenient a single value,There will be all kinds of trap.In a word:

　　时间流动性+价值流动性+市场流动性=确定性（价值、时间）

Time liquidity + value liquidity + market liquidity = deterministic(value/time)

　　流动性的测量工作仍然任重道远。理论上讲，可以看看整个市场的情况、每家公司的库存、每家公司想要买入与卖出的数量和点位。但实际上，交易员的嗅觉还是最好的预测仪器：交易员们似乎能够嗅出什么样的交易会震动市场，但他们也承认这种情况并无一定的标准，每天都会不同，不同的证券之间也相去甚远。

Liquidity measurement is still a long-term task.In theory,Can see the whole market/Each company inventory/Each company want to buy and sell quantity and position.But in fact,Traders sense of smell is still the best prediction instrument:Traders seem able to sniff out what kind of fair shake market,But they also admit that this kind of situation and no certain standards,Different every day,Different securities are between.

　　最后，也是相当重要的是，我们必须审视自己对钱、货币政策和全球货币供应的假设。克里斯托弗·布朗-休姆斯（Christopher Brown-Humes）说道：

finally,Is also very important,We must look at themselves for money/Monetary policy and global money supply hypothesis.Christopher brown - Hume(Christopher Brown - Humes)said:

　　19世纪早期，英格兰银行的主要政策工具是一个风向标。当东风吹起，船只出发驶向伦敦时，银行会向交易商提供货币，使其有能力购买卸在码头上的货物。如果西风吹起，银行会收起过剩的货币，以免大量货币追逐少量商品，引发通货膨胀。

In the early nineteenth century,The bank of England's main policy tool is a wind vane.When the wind was in the,Based on ships to London,The bank will provide money to the dealer,Give it the ability to purchase in the dock discharge of the goods.If the west wind blows,The bank will pack up surplus money,In order to avoid a lot of money chasing a small amount of goods,Trigger inflation.

　　（摘自《鱼价引爆经济学》第9章，原文有删减，标题为编者加，丛佳佳 整理）

(from[Fish detonate economics]Chapter 9,Text have cut,The heading is editor and,Plexus allison finishing)