[ 从历史上来看，高杠杆率时期之后总会伴随着更低的经济增速和更频发的违约，或公共和私人债务重组。事实上，违约和债务重组对于发达经济体并不陌生 ]

[historically,High leverage ratio after period will be associated with lower economic growth and more frequent breach of contract,Or public and private debt restructuring.In fact,Defaults and debt restructuring for developed economies are not strange]

　　世界经济近几年的一个特征是：几乎所有发达国家都在危机前的平静期内不约而同债台高筑，而2008年的全球金融危机彻底加剧了财政恶化。

The world economy in recent years is one of the characteristics:Almost all developed countries are in crisis calm before period happen to coincide deep in debt,And in 2008, the global financial crisis thoroughly exacerbated the fiscal deterioration.

　　卡门·M.莱因哈特（Carmen M. Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）的最新论文《债务十年》（A Decade of Debt）指出，发达经济体的平均公共债务占GDP比率最近几年已经上升至二战以来的最高水平，超过了一战和大萧条时期的最高点。与此同时，私人债务水平，尤其是金融机构和居民债务，已经到了前所未有的危险境地，成为很多国家公共部门的或有负债。

Carmen · m. reinhardt(Carmen m. Reinhart)And Kenneth rogge husband(Kenneth Rogoff)Latest paper[Debt ten years](A Decade of Debt)Pointed out that,The average developed economies of public debt to GDP ratio in recent years has risen to the highest level since world war ii,More than a warfare and the great depression of the peak.meanwhile,Private debt levels,Especially financial institutions and residents debt,Has reached unprecedented danger,As many countries public sector or liabilities.

　　罗格夫是美国哈佛大学经济学教授、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前首席经济学家。莱因哈特2012年7月开始担任哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授，她在这篇论文发表时为彼德森国际经济学研究所资深研究员，此前为马里兰大学经济学教授。

Rogge husband is the United States, an economics professor at Harvard University/The international monetary fund(IMF)Former chief economist.Reinhardt July 2012 at Harvard University's Kennedy school of government as a professor,She in this papers published as Peter's international economics institute senior researcher,For the university of Maryland after professor of economics.

　　从历史上来看，高杠杆率时期之后总会伴随着更低的经济增速和更频发的违约，或公共和私人债务重组。事实上，违约和债务重组对于发达经济体并不陌生。莱因哈特和罗格夫早些年的论文就记录道，一些如今的富裕国家有着很长的违约史。

Historically,High leverage ratio after period will be associated with lower economic growth and more frequent breach of contract,Or public and private debt restructuring.In fact,Defaults and debt restructuring is no stranger to advanced economies.Reinhardt and Jacques rogge husband earlier in the track,Some of today's rich countries has a long history of breach of contract.

　　然而，作者指出，债务重组也会伪装成“金融抑制”（financial repression)这种更微妙的形式进行。在比较研究了上世纪30年代“大萧条”时期的违约和债务重组事件，以及上世纪40年代至上世纪70年代期间的金融抑制现象后，他们认为正是因为限制了私人部门的投资选择，后一时期的债务削减才会幅度更大、速度更快。

however,The authors pointed out that,Debt restructuring will also disguised as"Financial repression"(Financial repression)The more subtle forms.The comparative study in the 1930 s"depression"Period of breach of contract and debt restructuring events,And the 1940 s first century 70 s financial inhibition after phenomenon,They think it is for limiting the private sector investment options,After a period of debt will cut more amplitude/faster.

　　“金融抑制”这一概念，最早由美国经济学家罗纳德·麦金农（Ronald McKinnon）和肖（Edward Shaw)于1973年提出，指那些允许政府从国内储蓄者手中“强取”资金而又允许其不足额偿还的政策，包括强制养老基金和其他国内金融机构向政府借债、设定利率上限、资本控制等。此后这一概念被用于描述新兴市场金融体系在80年代开始启动金融自由化之前的状态。

"Financial repression"This concept,The first by the American economists Ronald McKinnon(Ronald McKinnon)And shaw(Edward Shaw)Put forward in 1973,Those allows the government from domestic savers hands"rapaciousness"Funds and allow the deficit to repay the policy,Including compulsory pension funds and other domestic financial institutions to government debt/Setting interest rate cap/Capital control, etc.Since then this concept is used to describe the financial system emerging markets in the 80 s began to start before the financial liberalization of the state.

　　然而，在布雷顿森林体系下，同时期的发达国家同样对金融体系有着严格控制。莱因哈特和罗格夫指出，金融抑制也是发达经济体在二战后的常态，并不同程度地存在于80年代。通常，债务重组的目的有三重：削减现有债务存量的价值（减记）、削减债务成本（通过降低或设定利率上限）、最小化展期风险（通过延期或转换为非流通债）。而40年代至70年代期间普遍存在的金融抑制无非是“安静”的债务重组。

however,The bretton woods system,The same period as the developed countries in the financial system has strict control.Reinhardt and Jacques rogge husband pointed out,Financial inhibition is also developed economies in the normal after world war ii,And different degrees consist in the 80 s.usually,The purpose of the debt restructuring have triple:Cut the existing debt stock value(writedowns)/Cut debt cost(By reducing or setting interest rate upper limit)/Minimize extension risk(Through the extension or convert to non-negotiable debt).And 40 s to the 70 s widespread financial inhibition is nothing but"quiet"Debt restructuring.

　　莱因哈特和罗格夫因而推测，考虑到当前债务已大幅挤压，政府削减债务展期风险和遏制利息支出的迫切需求，再加上对直接重组的抵触，可能会导致金融抑制的“复活”：包括政府通过“被俘虏的国内民众”直接借债（例如养老基金）、直接或间接地设定利率上限、对跨境资本控制的更严格监管。

Reinhardt and Jacques rogge husband and speculation,Considering the current debt has greatly extrusion,The government cut debt extension risk and checking the urgent needs of interest expense,Plus the directly restructuring conflict,May cause the financial repression"resurrection":Including government through the"Captive domestic people"Direct debt(Such as pension funds)/Directly or indirectly setting interest rate upper limit/To cross-border capital control more strict supervision.

　　值得警惕的是，金融抑制的许多因素已经开始重新浮出水面——而这一趋势很可能在未来数年里加快步伐，因为政府将在债务重组的选项中不得不作出艰难的选择。

Alarmed that,Financial inhibition of many factors have begun to surface - and this trend is likely in the next few years to speed up the pace,Because the government will be in debt restructuring of the options have to make some difficult choices.

　　危机爆发以来，发达国家实际利率再一次跌到负值，而且越跌越低。即使在一些濒临违约或重组的主权国家，实际利率走低的趋势也已形成。发达国家普遍的高失业率，使得央行更有理由把利率维持在较低水平。在这种背景下，金融抑制很可能已被决策者们重新拾起。

Since the outbreak of the crisis,The developed countries real interest rates again fell to a negative value,And the lower the fall.Even in some on the verge of breach of contract or reorganization of the sovereign state,Real interest rates falling trend has also formed.The developed countries common high unemployment,Make the central bank have more reason to keep interest rates at lower level.In this context,Financial inhibition is likely to have been decision makers to pick up.

　　这正是莱因哈特和罗格夫所担忧的：发达国家金融抑制的复活。

This is what reinhardt and Jacques rogge husband is concerned:Developed countries the resurrection of financial repression.