编者提示：银行主导型金融制度与市场主导型金融制度互有优势，在提供金融服务方面也各有缺陷。对中国来说，当前应坚持金融市场发展取向，推动银证保均衡发展，促进金融业发展格局优化。本文为第9期同名文章下半部分，从两种金融制度的国际比较、中国金融业发展格局优化（下），就“十二五”时期中国金融业发展格局进行探讨。

Editor hint:Bank leading financial system and market-based financial system mutual advantage,In providing financial services also have each defect.For the Chinese,The current should be insisted on financial market development orientation,Promote silver-colored card to the balanced development,To promote the development of financial industry structure optimization.The purpose of this paper is to the ninth stage the bottom half,Two kinds of financial system from the international comparison/The development of China's financial industry structure optimization(under),it"1025"Period of China's financial industry development pattern is discussed.

　　两种金融制度的国际比较 Two kinds of financial institution of international comparison

　　从金融资产结构视角对银行、证券类资产比较

From the financial assets structure perspective on the bank/Securities assets comparison

　　从金融资产（仅考虑证券和银行资产）总量来看（见图1），发达国家的金融发展水平要远高于新兴市场国家。2008年全球金融资产总量为214.4万亿美元，与GDP的比重为352.0%。其中，美国、英国、德国、日本的金融资产总量分别为56.4万亿美元、18.2万亿美元、13.1万亿美元、24.7万亿美元，与GDP的比重分别为390.5%、678.4%、357.8%、503.3%。新兴市场国家金融资产总量34.4万亿美元，与GDP的比重为166.9%。

From the financial assets(Only consider securities and bank assets)Total consumption(See figure 1),The developed countries of the financial development level than emerging market countries.In 2008 the global financial assets totaled $214.4 trillion,And the proportion of GDP is 352.0%.the,The United States/British/Germany/Japan's total financial assets respectively for 56.4 trillion dollars/18.2 trillion dollars/13.1 trillion dollars/24.7 trillion dollars,And the proportion of GDP is 390.5%/678.4%/357.8%/503.3%.Emerging market countries financial assets total 34.4 trillion dollars,And the proportion of GDP is 166.9%.

　　从金融资产结构看（见图2），无论是发达国家还是新兴市场国家，证券资产和银行资产的比例大多保持在50%：50%。2008年全球证券（股票和债券）和银行资产的比例为54.6%：45.4%；其中，美国、英国、德国、日本为75.2%：24.8%；32.1%：67.9%；50.2%：49.8%；59.4%：40.6%；新兴市场国家为47.6%：52.4%。

From the financial assets structure to see(See figure 2),Both developed and emerging market countries,Securities assets and the proportion of bank assets are maintained at 50%:50%.In 2008 the global securities(Stocks and bonds)And the proportion of bank assets was 54.6%:45.4%;the,The United States/British/Germany/Japan is 75.2%:24.8%;32.1%:67.9%;50.2%:49.8%;59.4%:40.6%;Emerging market countries is 47.6%:52.4%.

　　对保险类资产比较 Compared to insurance asset classes

　　保费收入（Insurance Premium）方面，1998乣2007年间，OECD国家从21824. 9亿美元增长到38594.9美元，增长76.8%，年均增长6.5%。其中，美国、英国、德国、日本分别从9949.6亿美元、1911.8亿美元、1793.2亿美元、3006.4亿美元增长到13829.8美元、5572.1美元、2804.1美元、3514.1美元，增长39.0%、191.5%、56.4%、16.9%，年均增长3.7%、12.6%、5.1%、1.8%。保险深度（insurance penetration，保费收入占GDP比重）方面（见图3），1998乣2007年，OECD国家从8.4%增长到9.3%，增长11.5%，年均增长1.2%。其中，美国、英国、德国从10.4%、12.6%、6.4%增长到10.8%、19.2%、6.7%，增长3.8%、52.3%、4.2%，年均增长0.4%、4.8%、0.5%。日本从7.7%略微下降至7.6%，基本平稳。

Premium income(Insurance Premium)aspects,1998 乣 2007 years,OECD countries from 21824. $900 million rose to $38594.9,Growth of 76.8%,The average annual growth of 6.5%.the,The United States/British/Germany/Japan respectively from 994.96 billion us dollars/191.18 billion dollars/179.32 billion dollars/Grow to $300.64 billion us $13829.8/Us $5572.1/Us $2804.1/Us $3514.1,Growth of 39.0%/191.5%/56.4%/16.9%,The average annual growth of 3.7%/12.6%/5.1%/1.8%.Insurance depth(Insurance penetration,Premium income accounted for the proportion of GDP)aspects(See figure 3),乣 1998 in 2007,OECD countries growth from 8.4% to 9.3%,Growth of 11.5%,The average annual growth of 1.2%.the,The United States/British/Germany from 10.4%/12.6%/6.4% growth to 10.8%/19.2%/6.7%,Growth of 3.8%/52.3%/4.2%,The average annual growth of 0.4%/4.8%/0.5%.Japan slightly from 7.7% down to 7.6%,Basic smooth.

　　保险密度（insurance density，人均保费）方面（见图4），1998乣2007年，OECD国家从1800美元增长到3207美元，增长78.2%，年均增长5.9%。其中，美国、英国、德国、日本从3274美元、3068美元、1714美元、2334美元分别增长到4912美元、8808美元、2707美元、2587美元，增长50.0%、187.1%、57.9%、10.8%，年均增长4.1%、11.1%、4.7%、1.0%。

Insurance density(Insurance density,Per capita premium)aspects(See chart 4),乣 1998 in 2007,OECD countries growth from $1800 to $3207,Growth of 78.2%,The average annual growth of 5.9%.the,The United States/British/Germany/Japan from $3274/3068 dollars/1714 dollars/$2334 to $4912 a increase/8808 dollars/2707 dollars/2587 dollars,Growth of 50.0%/187.1%/57.9%/10.8%,The average annual growth of 4.1%/11.1%/4.7%/1.0%.

　　

中国金融业发展格局取向 China's financial industry development pattern orientation

　　从金融市场发展角度 From the financial market development Angle

　　中国是一个具有新兴和转轨双重特征的国家，对于中国金融发展的路径选择，借鉴其他转轨经济国家的经验教训是一种适当的政策选择。在经济转轨较为成功的国家，虽然存在金融政策上的区别，但是金融制度方面却出现了一些相同特征，主要表现在：

China is an emerging and transition has double characteristics of the country,For China's financial development path choice,Reference to other transition economy country's experience is a kind of appropriate policy choice.In the economic transition is relatively successful countries,Though there are financial policy difference,But the financial system but there have been some identical characteristics,Mainly displays in:

　　一是在转轨相对成功的国家中，银行在金融制度中处于主导地位。二是公司和银行的股权比较集中，股票换手率很低，而最好的公司往往偏好于到欧美证券交易所上市。三是大多数国家的金融制度为银行主导型金融制度，证券市场发挥的作用较小，只有发展到一定阶段后，股票市场和债券市场才会发挥更重要的作用。转轨经济国家的金融发展实践倾向于支持这样的经验认识，即在金融发展的初级阶段，银行主导型金融制度不可避免，发展证券市场的条件尚未成熟，只有发展到一定阶段后，证券市场的重要性才会逐渐凸显出来。这些都暗示着，实行银行主导型金融制度的转轨经济国家，伴随着经济发展，应该逐渐加快金融市场发展，显著提高市场在金融体系中的功能和作用。

One is in the transition relatively successful countries,Banks in the financial system is in a dominant position.Two is company and bank's equity more concentrated,Stock turnover rate is very low,And the best company often preference in to Europe and the United States listed on the stock exchange.The third is most of the country's financial system for bank leading financial system,The role of securities market smaller,Only after the development to a certain stage,The stock market and bond market will play a more important role.Transition economy of the financial development practice tend to support the experience knowledge,Namely in the financial development of the primary stage,Bank leading financial system inevitably,The development of the stock market conditions has not yet mature,Only after the development to a certain stage,The importance of the securities market will gradually emerges.These are implies,A bank leading financial system transition economy countries,Along with the economic development,Should gradually speed up financial market development,Improve market in the financial system in function and role.

　　20世纪90年代以来，关于金融制度比较与设计的文献不断出现并引起了学术界的广泛关注，但是应该承认还有许多未知领域需要我们去不断探索，例如目前在全球范围内金融制度的未来演进趋势并不是特别明确，理论界也存在诸多争论。但无论是金融制度结构的演进历史，还是两种金融制度所具有的相对比较优势，越来越多的证据显示，它们之间并非相互替代而更多的是一种互补关系，事实上，实践中世界各国的金融制度正在显现出一种同化趋势或趋中模式。因此，流行观点认为中国应该在战略选择上实行市场主导型金融制度，似乎定论为时尚早。

Since the 1990 s,About the financial system comparison and design documents appear constantly and caused the extensive attention of the academia,But should admit there are many unknown fields need us to continuously explore,For example in the global financial system's future evolution trend and not very clear,There are also many theoretical debate.But whether financial institutional structure evolution history,Or two kind of financial system is the comparison superiority,More and more evidence,Between them is not an alternative and more is a complementary relationship,In fact,Practice the all the countries in the world financial system are showing a trend of assimilation or introgressive mode.therefore,Popular ideas that China should in strategic choice implement market-based financial system,It seems uncertain.

　　但我们倾向于认为，中国金融制度演进的战略选择并不是非常明确，但是这并不影响我们当前做出有益的策略选择，我们应该加快金融市场的发展，因为无论是相对于市场主导型金融制度还是相对于趋中模式，中国目前的银行主导型金融制度尚存在许多差距；至于在接近趋中模式后，是否向市场主导型模式进一步演进，这不仅是一个需要进一步探讨的理论问题，更是一个实践问题。

But we tend to think that,China's financial system evolution strategy choice is not very clear,But this does not affect our current make beneficial strategy choice,We should speed up the development of financial market,Because whether it is relative to the market-based financial system and relative to hasten medium model,China's current bank leading financial system is still exist many gap;As for near introgressive after mode,Whether to market leading model further evolution,This is not only a need to further explore the theory of the problem,It is a practical problem.

　　从“十二五”时期金融发展指标角度 from"1025"Period of financial development index Angle

　　从融资结构角度看，若以2009年的数据计算，“十一五”期间间接融资比重下降1.5个百分点；若以2010年数据计算，“十一五”期间间接融资比重下降6个百分点。考虑到两个数据波动较大，后期可能会有所反弹，因此，力争“十二五”期末将中国间接融资比重稳定下降5个百分点，保持在70%的水平。

From the perspective of financing structure,If 2009 data calculation,"11th five-year plan"Indirect financing proportion during dropped by 1.5%;If the 2010 data calculation,"11th five-year plan"Indirect financing proportion during dropped by 6%.Considering the two data fluctuates greatly,Late may bounce,therefore,Strive to"1025"The final will be China's indirect financing proportion stable fell by 5%,Keep at 70%.

　　从金融资产结构角度看，银行业方面，“十一五”期间中国银行(601988,股吧)业金融机构境内资产总额从2005年末的37.5万亿元增长到2008年末达到62.4万亿元，但银行业资产总额与GDP的比重却一直保持在200%的水平上，变动并不显著。2009年为应对国际金融危机，采取了超额信贷投放政策，这一比重快速上升至234.88%，比上年增加36个百分点，比2005年增长30个百分点，波动特征明显。根据十年周期和五年周期的增长趋势测算下来，力争“十二五”期末银行业资产总额与GDP的比重稳定增加25个百分点，达到270%的水平。

From the financial assets structure perspective,Banking aspects,"11th five-year plan"Bank of China during the(601988,guba)Industry financial institutions within the territory of the total assets from the end of 2005 37.5 trillion yuan growth to the end of 2008 reach 62.4 trillion yuan,But banking total assets and the proportion of GDP has been maintained at 200% level,Change is not significant.In 2009 to cope with the international financial crisis,Take the excess credit availability policy,This proportion rapid rise to 234.88%,A year-on-year increase of 36%,A 30% increase over 2005,Fluctuation features obvious.According to ten years cycle and five years of periodic growth estimates down,Strive to"1025"The final banking total assets and the proportion of GDP stable increased by 25%,The level of 270%.

　　证券业方面，“十一五”期间国内股票市值与债券市值占GDP比重分别从2005年的17.69%、27.27%增长到2009年的72.74%、39.65%。“十二五”期间将加快推动金融市场发展，证券性资产占GDP的比重将有较大提升。股票市场方面，受市场行情等因素影响，“十一五”期间总市值占GDP比重呈现出明显的波动特征。以1993乣2009年趋势和2004乣2009年趋势测算，力争“十二五”期末总市值占GDP比重分别达到120%。债券市场的发展一直比较稳定，经测算，力争“十二五”期末债券市值占GDP的比重达到55%。

Securities aspects,"11th five-year plan"Domestic market during the stock and bond market value of GDP separately from 17.69% in 2005/Growth of 27.27% in 2009 to 72.74%/39.65%."1025"Period will speed up to promote financial market development,Securities sex assets accounted for the proportion of GDP will be greatly improve.Stock markets,The impact of factors such as the market by the market,"11th five-year plan"The total market value of GDP during the show obvious fluctuation characteristics.In 1993 乣 trend in 2009 and 2004 乣 2009 measure trend,Strive to"1025"The final total market value of GDP reached 120%.The development of the bond market has been relatively stable,According to the calculation,Strive to"1025"The final bond market value of close to 55% of GDP.

　　保险业方面，“十一五”期间国内保险业保费收入从4927.3亿元增加到11137.3亿元，年均增长约18.5%，远高于同期GDP增速（9.5%）；保险深度从2.66%增长至3.32%，年均增长约6.2%；保险密度从376.8元/人增长至834元/人，年均增长约18.1%。以“十一五”期间的增长速度测算，力争“十二五”期末保费收入达到21000亿元，保险深度达到4.4%，保险密度达到1600元/人。

Insurance aspects,"11th five-year plan"During domestic insurance premium income to increase 492.73 billion yuan from 1.11373 trillion yuan,The average annual growth of about 18.5%,Far higher than GDP growth over the same period(9.5%);Insurance depth from 2.66% in to to 3.32%,The average annual growth of about 6.2%;Insurance density from 376.8 yuan/increased to 834 yuan/person,The average annual growth of about 18.1%.to"11th five-year plan"During the period of growth estimates,Strive to"1025"The final premium income amounted to 2.1 trillion yuan,Insurance depth reaches 4.4%,Insurance density reached 1600 yuan/person.

　　从推动银证保均衡发展，优化中国金融业发展格局角度

Promote balanced development from silver-colored card to protect,Optimization of China's financial industry development pattern Angle

　　一要促进银行业科学发展，提升创新能力和服务水平。 To promote the scientific development of a banking industry,Improve innovation ability and service level.

　　确立科学发展理念及战略。引导银行业金融机构按科学发展观要求树立“好银行”理念，正确处理“大”和“好”的关系，坚决摒弃单纯追求规模、速度和市场份额扩张的习惯做法。对不同类型的机构，鼓励制订差异化的长远发展规划，进一步明确战略定位和发展目标，走专业化、个性化、特色化和精细化发展道路，转变经营策略与经营模式，避免同质化发展与同质化竞争。

Establish the scientific development concept and strategy.Guide the banking financial institutions according to the scientific development outlook requires to establish"Good bank"concept,Correctly handle"big"and"good"relationship,Resolutely abandon pure pursuit of scale/Speed and market share expansion of regular practice.For different types of institutions,Encourage make differentiation of the long-term development planning,Further clear strategic positioning and the development goal,specialization/personalized/Characterization and fine development road,Changing management strategy and business model,Avoid homogenization development and homogenization competition.

　　进一步加大金融创新力度。按照“成本可算、风险可控、提高透明度”原则支持银行业金融创新，提升金融创新质量，改善金融创新同质化问题。深入研究信贷资产证券化问题，审慎推进各类合格贷款的资产证券化业务。按照“制度先行、风险可控、及时总结”的原则，审慎有序推进金融业综合经营试点，严格准入管理，建立好“防火墙”，加强并表管理，引导商业银行在明确综合经营战略、严格控制风险的前提下，审慎开展综合经营业务试点。

To further increase the financial innovation.According to the"Cost can calculate/Risks are controllable/transparency"Principle support banking financial innovation,Improve the quality of financial innovation,Improve financial innovation homogenization problems.Further research problems of the securitization of credit assets,Prudent propulsion all kinds of qualified loan asset securitisation.According to the"System first/Risks are controllable/Summarize the"principle,Prudent orderly propulsion financial industry comprehensive management pilot,Strict access management,Build a"firewall",Strengthen and table management,Leading commercial bank in the clear integrated operation strategy/Strictly control the premise of risk,Prudent to carry out comprehensive business pilot.

　　二要大力推动金融市场发展，优化资源配置。 Second, we need to vigorously promote the development of financial markets,Optimize allocation of resources.

　　加快推动货币市场发展。促进同业拆借市场、回购市场、短期融资券市场、商业汇票市场协调发展，拓宽市场广度和深度，增强流动性管理功能。积极发展货币市场基金，引导货币经纪业务的发展，注重发挥专业中介机构的作用。

Speed up to promote the development of money market.Promote the interbank lending market/Repurchase market/Short-term financing bonds market/Commercial draft market coordinated development,Broaden the market breadth and depth,Enhance liquidity management function.The positive development of the money market fund,The guidance currency brokerage business development,Pay attention to play the role of professional intermediaries.

　　优化信贷市场结构，着力加强对小微企业、“三农”、服务业、节能减排、科技创新等领域的信贷支持。

Optimize the credit market structure,To strengthen the small micro enterprise/"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"/services/Energy conservation and emission reduction/Science and technology innovation and other areas of credit support.

　　完善多层次股票市场。继续发展主板市场和中小板市场；积极加强创业板市场建设，完善创业板新股发行机制、再融资制度。推动资本市场发展，进一步完善资本市场基础制度建设，完善股票发行体制改革，继续简化审核程序，提高发行效率，进一步完善新股发行询价制；积极推进主板、中小板退市制度改革；完善创业板公司退市机制。

Perfect multi-level stock market.Continue to develop main board market and small and medium-sized plate market;Actively strengthen the gem market construction,Perfect the gem ipo mechanism/Then the financing system.To promote the development of capital market,To further improve the capital market foundation system construction,Perfect stock issuing system reform,Continue to simplify the audit program,Improve efficiency issue,To further improve ipo inquiry system;Actively promote motherboard/Small and medium-sized plate delisted system reform;Perfect the gem companies to withdraw from the market mechanism.

　　促进债券市场发展。建立和完善分层有序、统一开放的债券市场，进一步发挥其在资源配置中的基础性作用。丰富市场产品结构，建立债券市场创新的长效机制。稳步推进资产证券化，试点发行地方政府债券，探索建立碳金融市场。继续推动非金融企业特别是中小企业债务融资工具创新，包括推出中小企业高收益债券、可转换债券等。试点发展信用风险管理工具。加强债券市场基础建设，提高市场流动性。

To promote the development of the bond market.To establish and perfect the hierarchical order/Unified open bond market,Further exert the in the basic role of the allocation of resources.Rich market products structure,To establish the long-term mechanism of the bond market innovation.Steadily promote the development of asset securitization,Pilot issue local government bonds,Explore to establish carbon financial markets.Continue to promote non-financial enterprises especially small and medium-sized enterprise debt financing tool innovation,Small and medium-sized enterprises including introduced high-yield bonds/Convertible bonds, etc.Pilot development credit risk management tools.To strengthen the bond market infrastructure,Increase market liquidity.

　　推动金融衍生产品市场健康、安全、可持续发展。坚持产品创新，丰富衍生产品品种。完善市场制度，加强市场规范管理。采取有效措施，建立市场风险防范机制。加强监管协调，形成市场发展合力。加强市场基础性建设，夯实市场发展基础。

Promote the financial derivatives market health/safety/Sustainable development.Adhere to product innovation,Rich derivatives variety.Perfect market system,Strengthen market management.Take effective measures,To establish a market risk prevention mechanism.Strengthen the supervision coordination,Form market development force.Strengthen the fundamental construction market,Punning market development foundation.

　　大力发展外汇、黄金市场。研究推动境内离岸外汇市场发展。加大开发外汇衍生产品力度，不断丰富外汇市场产品体系。创新黄金市场产品。完善黄金市场仓储、运输、认证和黄金账户服务体系。

Vigorously develop foreign exchange/Gold market.Research to promote domestic offshore foreign exchange market development.Increasing the development of foreign exchange derivatives strength,Enrich the foreign exchange market product system.Innovation gold market products.Perfect the gold market storage/transport/The authentication and gold account service system.

　　加快上海国际金融中心建设，巩固香港国际金融中心地位，推进上海、香港金融中心协调发展。

To speed up the Shanghai international financial center construction,Consolidate Hong Kong as an international financial centre,Propulsion Shanghai/Hong Kong financial center coordinated development.

　　三要加快发展和做大做强保险业。 Third, we need to speed up development and bigger and stronger insurance.

　　深化重点领域改革取得新突破。继续深化国有保险公司改革，积极推进有条件的保险公司改制上市，优化保险公司股权结构，增强市场约束力。继续推动保险改革试验区创新发展，进一步发挥示范促进作用。

Deepening the reform made new breakthroughs in key fields.Continue to deepen reform of the state-owned insurance company,Actively promote conditional insurance company restructuring listed,Optimization of the insurance company ownership structure,Enhance market binding upon both parties.Continue to promote the innovation and development of insurance reform pilot area,Play a model role in promoting further.

　　促进资产管理能力持续提升。完善资金运用管理体制和运行机制。探索保险资金独立托管机制。在风险可控的前提下，鼓励保险资金直接或间接投资资本市场，不断拓宽保险资金运用的渠道和范围。培育主业突出、具有国际竞争力的现代大型保险集团，增强大型保险公司国际竞争力。

Promote asset management capabilities continue to ascend.Perfect capital management system and operational mechanism.Explore the insurance funds independent trust mechanism.In the premise of risks are controllable,To encourage insurance funds, directly or indirectly, investment capital market,Expanding the use of insurance funds channels and range.Foster main outstanding/Internationally competitive modern large-scale insurance group,Enhance the international competitiveness of large insurance company.

　　拓宽保险服务领域，支持经济社会发展。加快发展“三农”保险，支持社会主义新农村建设。大力发展责任保险，促进经济社会稳定运行。积极发展养老和健康保险，服务社会保障体系建设。积极发挥出口信用保险的作用，促进对外贸易。发挥保险资金融通功能，支持国民经济建设。

Broaden the insurance services,Support for economic and social development.To speed up the development of"Agriculture, countryside and farmers"insurance,Support the construction of a new socialist countryside.Vigorously develop liability insurance,To promote economic and social stable operation.Actively developing pension and health insurance,Service the construction of social security system.To give full play to the role of export credit insurance,Foreign trade promotion.Play insurance financing function,Support the development of national economy.

　　（作者为中国人民银行金融研究所副研究员）

(The author is the people's bank of China financial research institute associate researcher)