经济导报首席记者 刘翔金乡报道

Gaining economic chief reporter liu xiang jinxiang reports

　　电子盘江湖，为何如此混乱？

Electronic disk runescape,Why are you so chaos?

　　“江苏盐城恒丰盘出事至今已近半年，我们的欠款至今分文未追回；在电子盘所做的‘局’里，做多、做空者皆未能幸免。”25日，济宁投资者陈磊向经济导报记者透露，目前，欠款的追讨相当缓慢。

"Jiangsu yancheng hengfeng disc accident has been nearly half a year,We owe nothing has not recovered;In the electronic disk do‘bureau’in,Do more than/Do those empty all failed to escape by luck."25,Jining Chen lei investors to economic gaining reporter revealed,At present,Balloon punish quite slow.

　　龙鼎盘在先，南店子盘（金乡大蒜国际交易所）、恒丰盘在后，最近则是国兴盘，大蒜电子盘一直不断崩盘。近期导报记者对“蒜都”金乡的一系列报道中，多名业内人士表示，电子盘问题频发的主要原因是其自身以虚拟资金参与市场交易，这也是整个行业亟须整顿的恶劣现象。

LongDing disc prior,South shop stocks plate(Jinxiang garlic international exchange)/Hengfeng plate in the,Recently it is GuoXing plate,Garlic electronic disk has been continuously crash.Reporters recently newsletter"Garlic are"Jinxiang a series of reports,More than people in the industry say,Electronic disk frequent problems is the main reason of the their own virtual capital participate in market transactions,This is also the industry it is urgent to rectify the bad phenomena.

　　而电子盘的问题，并不仅限于电子盘自身。23日，鱼山盘因“协调多方的质疑”暂时停牌：多方质疑电子盘蓄意拉低指导价。导报记者采访发现，多方不断“躁动”的背后，是自6月至今大蒜现货市场价格下跌过半的残酷事实。

And the problem of electronic disk,Is not limited to the electronic disk itself.23,Fish mountain plate for"Coordinate many question"Temporarily suspended:Many questioned electronic disk deliberately down prices.Reporters found that newsletter,Polytropic constantly"restlessly"Behind the,Since June is so far garlic spot market prices fell more than half the cruel fact.

　　作为类期货市场，电子盘交易最大的作用原本应是套期保值。但当投机者倾其所有甚至举债借贷梦想借此发财时，似乎一切都变了味。

As a kind of futures market,Electronic dish trade biggest role originally should be hedging.But when speculators pour all its even debt lending to rich dream when,It seems that everything changed taste.

　

　投资还是投机？ Investment or speculative?

　　是谁踏错了行情？ Who is on the wrong market?

　　金乡作为“蒜都”，云集了全国各地的贸易商，其中不乏资金过亿元的大户，实力在百万以上的中等贸易商更是普遍。

Jinxiang as"Garlic are",Gathered around the country by the traders,There is no lack of among them money over one hundred million yuan leader,Strength in a more moderate traders is common.

　　今年，全国的大蒜种植并不理想，产量明显下滑，大蒜的尺寸和质量均不及往年。因此，根据此前的经验，无论是电子盘还是现货市场，做多者明显增多。

This year,The national garlic planting is not ideal,Yield a significant slowdown,Garlic size and quality are less than usual.therefore,According to the previous experience,Whether electronic plate or the spot market,Do much more obvious.

　　“一是受去年增产不增收影响，今年大蒜种植面积减少20%以上，心理上便有了上涨预期；二是年初农产品价格普遍高涨，蒜价跟风上扬。”贸易商姜伟起初就颇为看好蒜市，于是在鱼山盘8800点时入手4500手。

"One is the last year by increasing income not influence,This year the planting area of garlic reduced by more than 20%,Psychological had expected to rise;At the beginning of the second is agricultural prices generally high,Garlic price rise follow suit."Traders JiangWei the beginning of garlic positive on the city,So in fish mountain plate 8800 point of hand 4500.

　　但此后一路下跌的电子盘行情，令他有些措手不及。

But then all the way down electronic plate market,Make some of his unprepared.

　　与此同时，现货市场也一路下行。从高峰时的5元/斤跌至目前的2元/斤上下。对诸多储存商而言，扣除冷库存储费、人工费等，此时的蒜价几乎令其巨亏。

meanwhile,The spot market also all the way down.From peak 5 yuan/jin fell to the current of the 2 yuan per catty fluctuation.For many storage for business,Deduct refrigerator storage charges/Labor, etc,The garlic price almost make its huge losses.

　　坚持到6200点时，姜伟忍痛全部斩仓。随后，紧跟着几次做空，才使得损失减少。

To stick to the 6200 point,JiangWei reluctantly all stop loss.then,Stick with a few times do empty,That loss reduction.

　　

为何电子盘和现货市场如此不振？ Why electronic plate and the spot market so spot?

　　长期从事大蒜贸易的朱勤伟向导报记者道出了个中原委：去年大蒜丰收，以至今年鲜蒜上市时，各地冷库中还存有约30万吨老蒜。如此，补足了今年鲜蒜储量不足的空缺，使得目前市场大蒜储量与往年基本持平。

Long engaged in garlic trade ZhuQinWei newsletter to reporter expressed the reason why:A bumper harvest last year garlic,And when this fresh garlic listed,All of the cold there is about 300000 tons of old garlic.so,Make up this year fresh garlic reserves insufficient vacancy,Make the present market garlic reserves and usual flat.

　　不过，与往年不同的是，今年全球经济普遍低迷，导致大蒜出口严重受阻。“9月份青岛港出口量同比下降30%。”朱勤伟说，无论是对东南亚还是欧洲的出口，都下降明显。

but,Unlike previous years,This year the global economic downturn generally,Garlic exported to serious damage."September Qingdao port exports fell 30% year-on-year."ZhuQinWei said,Both for southeast Asia or Europe export,Are down significantly.

　　此外，由于大蒜属于调味品而非生活必需品，因此当价格过高时，国内消费者也不买账。

In addition,Because of garlic belong to spice instead of necessaries of life,So when the price is high,Domestic consumer also not go for it.

　　种种原因，导致大蒜价格一路下跌。往年的“蒜你狠”牛气不在，金乡当地许多靠借贷豪赌做多的人，在踏错行情后，也领教了大蒜的另一番“狠劲”。

A variety of reasons,Lead to garlic prices all the way down.usual"Garlic you malicious"Arrogant not,Jinxiang local many by lending unrestrained gambling do many people,In misstep after market,Also ask advice of garlic another time"HenJin".

　

　现货也疯狂 Spot madness

　　与期货类似，大蒜现货市场的表现同样疯狂。由于蒜价持续走低，金乡当地许多贸易商甚至血本无归。

And futures similar,Garlic spot market performance also crazy.Because of garlic price falling,Jinxiang local many traders even lose everything.

　　“由于大蒜是一个小品种的经济作物，无论是现货还是期货，都非常适合炒作。”朱勤伟说。

"Due to the garlic is a small varieties of economic crops,Either spot or futures,Are very suitable for hype."ZhuQinWei said.

　　采访中导报记者了解到，决定大蒜价格走势的并非其总产量，而是当年的冷库储存能力。原因在于，大蒜属于“夏眠”作物：秋季大蒜就会发芽，所以必须在秋季到来前放入冷库保存。也就是说，秋季的冷储量决定了大蒜的价格走势。

Interview offer the reporter understands,Decided to garlic price trend is not the total output,But the refrigerator storage capacity.Reason lies in,Garlic belong to"estivate"crops:Autumn garlic will sprout,So must be in autumn before coming into cold storage preservation.That is,Autumn cold reserves determines the price movements of garlic.

　　“去年剩余的30万吨老蒜加上今年220万吨新存储的蒜，这样的储量并不低。”朱勤伟说。

"Last year, the rest of the 300000 tons this year old garlic and 2.2 million tons of new stored garlic,Such reserves is not low."ZhuQinWei said.

　　值得注意的是，按照以往的经验，当大蒜冷储量达到和接近250万吨上下时，市场表现往往供过于求；冷储量低于200万吨时，大蒜价格则多会受到追捧。以2011年为例，冷储量为245万吨，进入10月后，现货和电子盘均呈现跌势。

It is important to note that,According to the past experience,When garlic cold reserves to and close to 2.5 million tons when up and down,Market performance often supply exceeds demand;Cold reserves less than 2 million ton hour,The price is garlic will adore.Taking 2011 as an example,Cold reserves of 2.45 million tons,Into 10 months,Spot and electronic disk are presents downtrend.

　　近几年的冷储量也印证了这一点：2007年储存能力达到240万吨，造成市场供应远大于需求，蒜贱伤农；2009年，大蒜入库只有170万吨，加上“甲流”影响使得国际市场需求增加，造成暴涨，“蒜你狠”令人心悸。

In recent years cold reserves also proved this point:In 2007, storage capacity is 2.4 million tons,To cause market supply far outweigh the demand,Garlic base hurt farmers;In 2009,,The garlic is only 1.7 million tons,plus"Armour flow"Influence, the international market demand increases,Cause boom,"Garlic you malicious"Is palpitation.

　　“今年经济下滑，大蒜出口遇冷、蒜粉等副产品需求降低，一系列利空导致蒜价不断下滑。”朱勤伟表示。

"This year economic downturn,Garlic export encounter cold/Garlic powder as a by-product demand lower,A series of bad cause garlic price decline continuously."ZhuQinWei said.

　　

不能“一刀切” Can't"One size fits all"

　　电子盘丑闻频现，下一步将何去何从？今年以来，监管层一系列政策直指电子盘，但依然有电子盘违规的消息曝出。

Electronic disk scandal frequency now,The next step to be?Since this year,Supervision layer series of policies directed at electronic disk,But still have electronic disk illegal news to expose.

　　“市场对电子盘还是有需求的。”25日，国际大蒜贸易网资深分析师张伟接受导报记者采访时表示，评价电子盘不能一刀切，市场和贸易商需要这样一个套期保值的工具。

"Market for electronic disk or demand."25,International garlic trade net senior analyst zhang wei newsletter accept reporter to interview said,Evaluation of electronic disk can not one size fits all,The market and trade business need such a hedging tool.

　　场外资金充沛，也增加了电子盘的投资因素。以金乡为例，2004年末该县居民储蓄存款余额为27.15亿元，2007年时增长到39.7亿元，2011年底则猛增到80.43亿元。

Street capital abundant,Also increases the electronic disk investment factors.In jinxiang, for example,By the end of 2004 the county residents savings account balance for 2.715 billion yuan,Growth in 2007 to 3.97 billion yuan,By the end of 2011 is soaring to $8.043 billion.

　　采访中导报记者注意到，“炒蒜”在金乡似乎已成为财富和一夜暴富的代名词。

Interview reporter noticed newsletter,"Fried garlic"In jinxiang seems to have become the pronoun of wealth and coin money overnight.

　　“任何新生事物都需要一个成长和完善的过程，作为新兴的电子盘，监管和引导必不可少。”张伟表示。

"Any new things all need a growth and improve the process,As the emerging of electronic disk,Supervision and guidance necessary."Zhang wei said.

　　朱勤伟也认为，电子盘存在问题，并不意味着大宗商品电子盘没有积极意义。

ZhuQinWei also think,Electronic disk problems,Does not mean commodity electronic disk no positive meaning.

　　“如果一刀切关闭此类市场，可能会错杀规范的电子盘。行业内大都希望能进行规范，促使其更好地发展，而不是消灭此类市场。”对于电子盘的未来，朱勤伟说。

"If one size fits all closed such market,May be wrong to kill standard electronic disk.Mostly in the industry hopes to rules,Promote the better development,Rather than destroy such market."For the future of electronic disk,ZhuQinWei said.