2012年以来，中国证监会积极推出了一系列重要改革措施，这些政策措施得到了市场积极回应，政策效果正逐步显现，市场投资吸引力日趋提高。目前，无论是从市场估值水平、上市公司业绩和分红水平的中外历史比较来看，还是从投资者的长期持股收益来看，国内蓝筹股公司已经具备良好的长期投资价值。

Since 2012,The China securities regulatory commission actively introduced a series of important reform measures,These policies and measures to get the market actively respond to,The policy effect is gradually revealed,Market investment attraction is improving.At present,Whether from the market valuation levels/Performance of listed companies and dividends level of Chinese and foreign history comparison to see,Or the investor's long-term shareholding income to see,Domestic blue chip company has good long-term investment value.

　　一、市场估值水平的中外历史比较显示中国证券市场具备长期投资价值

a/Market valuation level of Chinese and foreign history comparison shows the China securities market has long-term investment value

　　中国证券市场是否具备投资价值，可从纵向和横向两个维度进行考察。

Whether China's securities market has investment value,From the longitudinal and transverse the two dimensions of investigation.

　　首先，从历史比较维度来看，现阶段中国证券市场已经具备长期投资价值。

First of all,From the historical comparative dimension to see,At present, China securities market has long-term investment value.

　　2012年10月26日，上证综合指数收于2066点时的平均市盈率为11.16倍，分别低于前两次历史大底，即2005年6月6日上证综指998点时的16.52倍和2008年10月28日1664点时的12.25倍。而目前沪市市净率1.5倍也低于2005年6月6日的1.64倍和2008年10月28日的1.96倍。

On October 26, 2012,The Shanghai composite index closed at 2066 points average p/e ratio of 11.16 times,The first two were lower than history outsole,That is on June 6, 2005, the Shanghai composite index 998 point of 16.52 times and on October 28th, 2008, 1664 point 12.25 times.Currently Shanghai city net rate 1.5 times also lower than June 6, 2005, 1.64 times and on October 28th, 2008, 1.96 times.

　　表1 国内主要指数市盈率和市净率历史比较

Table 1 domestic main index p/e ratio and city net rate of history comparison

　　数据来源：Bloomberg。

Data sources:Bloomberg.

　　其次，与同期国际主要证券市场横向比较，上证综合指数目前动态市盈率为10.95倍，在全球主要市场中仅高于香港恒生指数的10.34倍，动态市净率1.5倍，在全球市场中处于较低的水平。

secondly,Compared with the international main stock market transverse comparison,The Shanghai composite index is dynamic p/e ratio is 10.95 times,In the global main markets than Hong Kong's hang seng index only 10.34 times,Dynamic city net rate 1.5 times,In the global market at a lower level.

　　图1 国际主要证券市场市盈率比较

Figure 1 international main stock market p/e ratio comparison

　　数据来源：上海证券交易所发展研究中心，WIND。

Data sources:Shanghai stock exchange development research center,wind.

　　作为我国典型蓝筹股组合的沪深300指数，近期市盈率仅10.9倍、市净率1.5倍，相比以往上证综指998点与1664点时的市盈率与市净率，已经处于非常低的水平。截至2012年10月，沪深300指数公司总市值占A股市场68%；根据2012年中报数据，沪深300指数公司的营业收入占全部上市公司的75.49%，净利润占88.30%，这些数据显示，蓝筹股构成了中国证券市场的支柱，体现了股市投资价值的真正所在。

As the typical blue chip combination of the Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index,Recent p/e ratio is only 10.9 times/City net rate 1.5 times,Compared with previous Shanghai composite index 998 points and 1664 points when the p/e ratio and city net rate,Has been in a very low level.By October 2012,Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index total market value of A share market 68%;According to the 2012 NianZhongBao data,Shanghai and shenzhen 300 index the company's operating income accounted for 75.49% of all listed companies,Net profit of 88.30%,These data show,Blue chip constitutes the mainstay of the Chinese securities market,Embodies the stock market investment value in the real.

　　二、上市公司盈利水平和股息率水平凸显现阶段中国证券市场投资价值

two/Listed companies' profit level and dividend rate level highlight at present, China securities market investment value

　　上市公司质量是证券市场投资价值的基石。随着我国经济的持续高速增长和证券市场制度建设的日益完善，上市公司的盈利水平和投资吸引力显著提高。

The quality of listed companies is the foundation of the securities market investment value.With China's sustained economic growth and stock market system construction is increasingly perfect,The listed company profit level and investment attraction increased significantly.

　　就上市公司微观层面的财务数据而言，2012年中期，沪市A股平均每股收益和每股净资产分别为0.16元和3.53元，是2005年同期的1.6倍和1.3倍，平均净资产收益率ROE和资产收益率ROA则比2005年同期提高38.8%和1.9%。在上市公司分红方面，2012年中期共有590家公司分红，高于2005年的430家，分红总额达到5297.8亿元，是2005年的8.5倍。

To the listed company's microscopic level in terms of financial data,By the middle of 2012,Shanghai a-share average earnings per share and net asset per share were 0.16 yuan and 3.53 yuan,The same period in 2005 is 1.6 times and 1.3 times,The average return on equity ROE and return on assets ROA is better than the same period in 2005 increased by 38.8% and 1.9%.In the listed company in dividends,By the middle of 2012 a total of 590 companies share out bonus,More than 2005 years of 430,Share out bonus amounted to 529.78 billion yuan,Is 8.5 times that of 2005.

　　表2 沪市A股上市公司微观层面财务数据

Table 2 Shanghai a-share listed company micro financial data

　　资料来源：Wind。

source:wind.

　　从上市公司股息率角度来看，我国证券市场也显示出较高的长期投资价值。近年来，沪市整体股息率呈现显著上升态势，红利的增加不仅进一步普及与强化价值投资理念，也进一步为上市公司治理的完善带来有效的外部治理约束。以上证综合指数为例，股息率水平从2001年的1.01%上升至2011年的1.86%，上市公司平均分红从2001年0.41亿元/家增加至2011年的4.58亿元/家，增加幅度达10倍多。从不同类型公司股息率的比较来看，大型蓝筹公司是分红的主要力量，其中，2011年上证50成分股的股息率达到2.46%，上证180成分股的股息率达到1.91%，上证380成分股的股息率为1.38%。

From the listed company dividend rate perspective,Our country securities market also showed a higher long-term investment value.In recent years,Shanghai whole dividend rate present rise significantly,Bonus increase not only further popularization and strengthen the value investment idea,Also further for the perfection of the corporate governance of listed company bring effective external governance constraints.In the Shanghai composite index as an example,Dividend rate level up from 1.01% in 2001 to 1.86% in 2011,The listed company average dividends from 2001 041 million yuan/home increased to 2011 yuan/home,The increase rate up to 10 times more.From the different types of companies dividend rate comparison to see,Large blue-chip companies share out bonus is the main force,the,In 2011, the Shanghai 50 constituent stock dividend rate reached 2.46%,The Shanghai 180 constituent stock dividend rate reached 1.91%,The Shanghai 380 constituent stock dividend rate was 1.38%.

　　表3 上海证券市场历年分红

Table 3 Shanghai stock market the share out bonus

　　数据来源： WIND。

Data sources: wind.

　　另外，从我国证券市场的股息率历史比较来看，同2005和2008年的两次历史性低点相比，目前，沪市股息率达到历史最高水平，为2.87%。同国际主要指数股息率的横向比较也发现，沪市A股市场的股息率高于美国标准普尔500指数的2.08%、纳斯达克综合指数的1.17%以及日经225指数的2.26%。

In addition,From our country securities market dividend rate of history comparison to see,With 2005 and 2008 two times than historic lows,At present,Shanghai dividend rate can reach the highest level,Is 2.87%.With the international main index dividend rate of transverse comparison also found,Shanghai A share market dividend rate is higher than the standard &poor's 500 index 2.08%/The nasdaq composite index of 1.17% and 2.26% of the nikkei 225 index.

　　表4 国际主要证券市场股息率水平对比

Table 4 international main stock market dividend rate level contrast

　　数据来源：Bloomberg。

Data sources:Bloomberg.

　　三、投资者的长期持股收益表明低位买入、长期投资是较好的盈利模式

three/Investors long-term shareholding income shows that buy low/Long-term investment is a good profit model

　　从投资者在A股市场中的长期投资收益来看，如果投资者能够保持理性，不追涨杀跌，在市场具备显著投资价值时买入，则会有机会获取较好的投资收益，分享到实体经济增长带来的投资价值。

Investors in a-share market from the long-term investment income to see,If investors can be rational,Don't chase after go up to industrial,In the market have significant investment value when buying,Will have the chance to get a good return on investment,Share the entity economic growth to bring the investment value.

　　假定投资者在股票上市首日按收盘价买入，并一直持股至2012年7月底，在考虑除权、分红的情况下，分析每只股票的全收益情况。按此计算，在沪市A股市场中，约占所有上市A股数量72.68%的股票能够获得正收益，其中，收益超过100%的股票数量占45.04%。

Assume that investors in the stock listing to buy first closing price,And has been holding to 2012 the end of July,In considering ex-rights/Under the condition of share out bonus,Analyze each stock of all income situation.According to the calculation,In the Shanghai a-share market,About of all the number listed A shares 72.68% of its shares to obtain positive income,the,Income of more than 100% of the number of shares of 45.04%.

　　进一步以代表蓝筹股的上证180全收益指数为样本，考察2003年到2011年期间投资者的长期持股全收益。研究表明，在2011年底，上证180全收益指数的累计收益率达到122.22%，年化收益率9.28%。

Further to the blue-chip Shanghai 180 all income index for sample,Investigation in 2003 to 2011 during the long-term investors holding the whole income.Research shows that,In the end of 2011,The Shanghai 180 all income index of accumulative total yield reached 122.22%,Annualised yield 9.28%.

　　由此可见，对投资者而言，沪市A股市场具备显著的长期投资价值，特别是上证50或者上证180成分股这样的蓝筹股票，其长期投资价值更为显著。

Thus it can be seen,For the investors,Shanghai A share market has significant long-term investment value,Especially the Shanghai 50 or the Shanghai 180 constituent stock such a blue chip stock,Its long-term investment value is more significant.

　　图2 沪深市场个股长期回报率分布

Figure 2 Shanghai and shenzhen stock market long-term rate of return distribution

　　注：计算样本是从1993年起上市的股票，持股时间截至2012年7月底。

note:Calculation sample from 1993 onwards listed stock,Holding time as of the end of July 2012.

　　数据来源：上海证券交易所金融创新实验室，WIND资讯。

Data sources:Shanghai stock exchange financial innovation laboratory,wind information.

　　表5 上证180全收益指数2003到2011年年化收益率

Table 5 Shanghai 180 all income index 2003 to 2011 year by year change rate of return

　　数据来源：WIND资讯。

Data sources:wind information.

　　图3 蓝筹股长期回报率分布(单位：只)

Figure 3 blue chip long-term rate of return distribution(unit:only)

　　注：计算样本是从1993年起上市的蓝筹股（上证50与上证180股成分股），持股时间截至2012年7月底。

note:Calculation sample since 1993 listing of the blue chip stock(The Shanghai 50 index and the Shanghai 180 strands),Holding time as of the end of July 2012.

　　数据来源：上海证券交易所金融创新实验室，WIND资讯。

Data sources:Shanghai stock exchange financial innovation laboratory,wind information.

　　进一步从投资者择机策略角度考察，在上市首日以收盘价买入各年IPO的股票并持股至2012年7月底，可以得到以下结论：

Further investors from the strategy point of view,In the first listed in the closing price to buy each year IPO stock and holding to 2012 the end of July,Can get the following conclusion:

　　（1）在2007年之前，每年IPO上市首日买入股票的长期投资回报显著为正，特别是1995、1996与2003年上市的股票，可以获得平均增长350%左右的回报率。

(1)In the 2007 years ago,Every year the first IPO shares to buy long-term return on investment is significant,Especially in 1995/1996 and 2003 listed stock,Can get grew an average of about 350% returns.

　　（2）在2007年之后，每年IPO上市首日买入股票的平均收益为负。但是，如果新股定价相对合理，还是可以给投资者带来长期投资回报。由此可见，投资者只要不在股市疯狂时期入市，保持理性，就可以在一定程度上规避投资风险，减少投资损失。

(2)In the 2007 years later,Every year the first IPO buy stock average income is negative.but,If new shares relatively reasonable pricing,Or can give investors bring long-term return on investment.Thus it can be seen,As long as investors in the stock market entry crazy period,Keep rational,Can to a certain extent avoid investment risk,Reduce investment loss.

　　（3）如果按板块分类，沪深300板块沪市部分中有72.1%的股票获得了正收益，表明投资蓝筹股获得正向收益的概率非常高。

(3)If according to plate classification,Shanghai and shenzhen 300 plate Shanghai part has a 72.1% stock obtained positive income,Show that investment blue chip get positive earnings probability is very high.

　　因此，如果投资者能够保持理性，不追涨杀跌，在市场具备显著投资价值时买入，则会有机会获取较好的投资收益。特别需要指出的是，投资者可将沪深300板块作为“价值投资”的标杆样本持有，而没有必要参与新股炒作与绩差股投资，可以获得相对稳定的投资收益。

therefore,If investors can be rational,Don't chase after go up to industrial,In the market have significant investment value when buying,Will have the chance to get a good return on investment.Special need to point out,Investors can be as csi 300 plate"Value investment"Hold the post sample,And there is no need to participate in new media and performance difference stock investment,Can get a relatively stable investment income.

　　图4 沪深市场股票全收益变化趋势

Figure 4 Shanghai and shenzhen stock market all income change trend

　　注：计算样本是从1993年起上市的股票，持股时间截至2012年7月底。

note:Calculation sample from 1993 onwards listed stock,Holding time as of the end of July 2012.